Regionally Focused Case Studies

Ph.D. Ravsal OyunLead Author, SREX Chapter 9Director, JEMR LLC, Mongolia

IPCC SREX Regional Outreach MeetingBangkok, 4 May 2012

Asian DisasterPreparedness Center (ADPC)

Content

1. SREX Case studies2. Lessons from the Case studies3. Commons in the Case studies and Conclusion

SREX CASE STUDY1

SREX Case Studies

• Case studies contribute more focused analyses:– in the context of human loss and damage, – demonstrate the effectiveness of response strategies and

prevention measures– identify lessons about success in DRR and CCA.

• Case studies were chosen to:– complement and be consistent with the information in SREX– demonstrate aspects of SREX key messages and HFA Priorities.

• Case studies were grouped:– extreme events, – vulnerable regions,– tools

SREX Case studies

• Extreme events:1. Heat wave, Europe2. Hot weather, wildfire, Australia3. Drought, Syria 4. Dzud, Mongolia5. Tropical cyclones, Indian Ocean, Central America6. Flood, Mozambique7. Cholera, Zimbabwe

• Vulnerable regions:1. Coastal megacity, Mumbai, India2. SIDSs, Republic of the Marshall Islands 3. Cold climate, Canada’s northern regions

• Methodologies or approaches to DRR & CCA1. Early warning systems; 2. Effective legislation; 3. Risk transfer in developing countries; and 4. Education, training, and public awareness initiatives

SREC Case studies

Regionally focused Case studies

LESSONS FROM THE CASE STUDIES 2.

Extreme heat: European heat wave of 2003, 2006

• Location: – North America, Asia, Africa,

Australia, Europe• Impacts, risks:

– Public health, deaths:• Europe: 30 000 in 2003,

70 000 in 2008• France: 14,800• Beijing: 11,000

– Damage roads and rail tracks– Increased demand for energy – Risk to power generator– Air pollutant, particulate matter

• Projection: – It is very likely that the length,

frequency, and/or intensity will continue to increaseover most land areas

• DRR & CCA practices:– Heat Warning System (HWS)

• Heat wave preparedness programs, plans • Emergency medical service during heat wave

– Heat Action Response System:• alert protocol• community response plan• communication plan, and • evaluation plan

– Communication and education strategies:• community-based • offer opportunity for changing social norms • facilitate the building of community capacity

– Adapting the urban infrastructure:• building techniques that reduce energy consumption • land use modifications that increase albedo,

proportion of vegetative cover, thermal conductivity, and emissivity in urban areas

– Assessing heat mortality

Hot Weather and Wildfires: Victoria, Australia, 2009

• Location:– many regions of the world

• Causes:– increase in temperature

and decrease in precipitation

– severe droughts, heat waves

• Impacts: – Public health, mortality

• 980 deaths– Damaged land:

• 430,000 ha of forests, crops, pasture

– Destroyed businesses• 61 businesses

– Changes in:• Demography• Land use

• Projection: – Bushfire risks are likely to

increase– Increased likelihood of

extreme fire danger days

• DRR and CCA practices:– Government, community involvement:

• Sustainability Action Statement • Action plan• Heat Wave Plan

– Heat wave EWS at Melbourne– Toolkit to assist local councils preparing for response

(in coordination with health, emergency plans)– ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (SDLE)– Protecting drinking water from contamination with ash,

debris – Recoomendations:

• revised bushfire safety policies; • increased fuel reduction burning on public lands; • community refuges established in high-risk areas; • improved coordination, communication between fire orgs;• Modify ‘Prepare, stay and defend, or leave early’ to "Prepare, act,

survive" for voluntary evacuations on extreme days; • further ongoing investment in bushfire research

– Measures to strengthen risk management capacities: • prior public campaigns for risk awareness; • enhanced information and warning systems; • translation of messages of awareness and preparedness into universal

action; • sharing responsibility between government and the people;• development of integrated plans; and • greater investment in risk mitigation and adaptation actions.

Drought, Syria, 2007-2010

• Location:– Asia, Australia,

• Impacts, consequences and risks:– Affected

• 1.3 million people in 2011• small-scale farmers and herders

– Agriculture, economic losses• rain-fed, irrigated winter grain crops,

50% of wheat products• Grassland pasture, loss of 80% of

livestock– Ecology:

• Land degradation, • Drying-up surface water resources

– Social consequences:• Migration from rural to urban:

(between 40,000 - 60,000 families)• Increase of price on food, animal

fodder by 75%, and transportation• Poverty, increase debt, school

children drop-out • Increase competition for scarce

resources, (water) ethnic tensions, conflicts

• DRR and CAA practices:– Government intervention with Drought Response Plan

• distribution of wheat, barley, and legume seeds to affected households

• sustaining the remaining asset base of herders by providing animal feed and limited sheep restocking;

• development of drought EWS• building capability to implement the nat. drought strategy.

– Provision of International humanitarian assistance– Loans to affected farmers, women entrepreneurs– Decentralization of resources, community

participation– Drought risk loss insurance; – Improved water use efficiency

• Adopting, adapting water harvesting techniques;• integrating use of surface and groundwater; • upgrading irrigation practices of use and supply sides• production systems into higher value and more efficient

water use options– Adapting agriculture:

• developing crops tolerant to salinity and heat stress, diversifying, changing cropping patterns;

• altering the timing or location of cropping activities; – Capacity building in vulnerable areas

Dzud* Disaster, Mongolia 2000, 2010

• Location:– Mongolia

• Causes:– Summer drought, autumn

snowfall and unusual warmth with ice cover, winter extreme cold, snowfall, spring windstorm

– Damage to pasture by rodents and insects

– Inadequate pasture management and coordination,

– Lack of experience of new and/or young herders

• Impacts, consequences:– Livestock deaths

• 2000-2002: 12 million deaths• 2010 8.4 million deaths

– Unemployment, poverty – Migration from rural to urban– Rural people health– Overload to urban physical and

social infrastructure

• DRR and CAA practices:– Government and donor assisted relief:

• Distribution of money, fodder, medicine, clothes, food, medical equipment, vegetable seeds

• Health and veterinary services, • Capacity-building through mass media campaigns• Using traditional informal coping methods• Restocking program

– Livestock sector reforms• Rivised policy• Invetsment in rural infrastrure • Flexibility in pasture land tenure

– National CCA strategy • Education, awareness campaigns among the decision

makers, rural community, herders and public;• Technology transfer to farmers and herders;• R&D to ensure agriculture development• improved coordination among stakeholders

– National Climate Risk Management Strategy:• improving access to water, creating water pools

to harvest rain and flood waters;• improving tlivestock quality, adjusting animal types

and herd structure for pasture carrying capacity;• Strengthening veterinarian services

– For local development:• Localized seasonal climate prediction,

improvement of early warning, establishment EWS at local with active particpation of herders

• Formation of herders’ community groups andestablishment of pasture co-management teams

• Implementing index based risk-insuring systems• Learning from traditional knowledge

* Dzud: unusually extreme weather conditions that resultin the death of a significant number of livestock over large areas

Tropical cyclones: Bangladesh (Sidr, 2007) Myanmar (Nargis, 2008), Central America (Stan, Wilma, 1-13 October 2005)

• Location:– Indian Ocean (15% of world) – Central America, Mexico, • Impacts, consequences– Injury, deaths (thousands)– Ecosystem damage– Economic loss (US$ billions)– Agricultural production• Projections:– It is likely that:• Increase TC -related rainfall rates• decrease or unchanged global

frequency • increase in mean maximum

wind speed, although may not occur in all tropical regions.

– It is more likely than not that • increase substantially of

frequency of most intense storms in some ocean basins

• DRR and CCA practices:– Partnership: Gov., donors, NGOs, human orgs, community

• Constructed cyclone shelters for people, livestock• Improve forecasting, warning capacity with EWS • periodic training and practices• Cyclone preparedness program (CPP) • Operational volunteer network• Coastal reforestation program

– Improve quality and effectiveness of governance:• voice and accountability, rule of law, regulatory quality, • participation of people at risk in decision making

– Early warning and preparedness: • evacuation of people, • Mobilization of heavy machines, emergency groups

– Collaborative efforts for restoration:• water, electricity, communications, health services • airport and tourist facilities • Costs covered by insurance companies

– Effective disaster risk management• social processes contribute to DRR• involvement of people at risk • development planning includes DRM

Flood: Mozambique, 2000, 2007

• Location:– Africa, Asia, Europe, …

• Mozambique vulnerability– 50% of population living in poverty– civil war, conflict with South Africa. – Rising HIV/AIDS rates, – 70% female illiterate, – Most population depending on subsistence farming– 2,700-km coastline subjected to cyclones and flooding– Problems: Institutional, technological, financial

• Impacts, consequences– Deaths, homeless people– many small towns, villages remained under water for

two months – Vital infrastructure: access roads, railways, bridges,

safe water and sanitation facilities, dams (US$ 71 million)

– damaged health centers, schools, public buildings, drug stocks, medical equipment

– lost 167,000 ha of agricultural land, destroyed 277,000 ha of crops

– incidence of malaria• Projection

– likely increase in frequency of heavy precipitation over many areas of the globe, and tropical regions in particular

• DRR and CCA practices:– Effective functioning of DRR

and DRM programs at all levels– Protecting infrastructure:

• dams and sea walls (expensive)• urban drainage systems

– Action plan for poverty reduction

– Master Plan to deal with vulnerability

– Flood-safe resettlement program (59 000 families)

– Hydrological monitoring, Improving weather forecasting,

– EWS as part of DRR and DRM, evacuation

– Local centers coordinating emergency operations.

Coastal megacities: Mumbai, India, 2005• Vulnerability– risk and loss are concentrated and spread through

networks of critical infrastructure, financial and resource flows

– vulnerability is concentrated in the poorest neighborhoods, which lack access to sanitation, health care, transportation infrastructure, and whose homes and possessions are unprotected by insurance

– 50 cm rise in sea level together with storm surges, would render uninhabitable the coastal and low-lying areas where many of informal settlements are located.

• Impacts, consequences, risks– Death mostly in slum settlements– Destroyed Infrastructure: water, sewer, drainage, road,

rail, air transport, power, telecommunications systems – Destroyed ATM, banking systems, temporarily close of

Stock Exchanges– increased rates of infectious disease for urban poor

• Projection:– it is very likely that sea level rise will contribute to

increases in extreme sea levels– very high confidence that coasts will be exposed to

increasing risks

• DRR and CCA practices:– Infrastructure investments – Strategy to

• avoid risk • build resilience if cannot

avoid hazard– Using capacity and resources for

innovation and economic growth– Governance and economic relations,

including insurance, provision of basic needs of health and education

– Multi-hazard risk models, based on probabilistic analysis, can help reduce and manage risks

– Scaled-up financing for adaptation to safeguard residents & economic activity

– City wide analysis, assessments• climate change impacts • economic impacts• standardized, multihazard

impacts

SIDSs: Republic of the Marshall Islands • Vulnerability– key vulnerability factors:

• limited freshwater supplies • inadequate drainage infrastructure are

– small size, insularity, remoteness– low-lying coastal zones– key economic sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, tourism

are susceptible to natural hazards. – economic dependence on international funders, – lack of financial, technical resources for seawater

desalination– high levels of poverty – erosion, inundation, saline intrusion resulting in ecosystem

disruption, – decreased agricultural productivity, changes in disease

patterns, economic losses, and population displacement– weak human and institutional capacities for land

management– damage, financial need after tsunami, hurricane for

restoration– water resources are likely to be seriously compromised

• Natural hazards– sea level rise, – tropical storms or typhoons with associated storm surges, – drought

• DRR and CCA practices– technology to limit the

effects of extreme weather events on water supply

– improvement of climate sensitivity knowledge

– single targeted program for resilience to drought and resilience to climate change

– financial assistance through a Compact of Free Association

– Policy development• national environmental

conservation policy• natural disaster

management policy– participate in international

protocols and conventions relating to CC and sustainable development

Asia implication

Vulnerability & Exposure, and Risk assessmentPartnershipFinancial & Programming mechanismPolicy makers’ effortGHG mitigationToday’s “extreme” tomorrow normal,

tomorrow extremes ???Smart development + DR is core in economic policy

COMMONS IN THE CASE STUDYSUMMARY, CONCLUSION

3.

Challenges

• Current DRM and CCA policies and measures have not been sufficient to avoid, fully prepare for, and respond to extreme weather and climate events, but these examples demonstrate progress.

Needs for Further Improvements

• Need for improvement (soft measures):– Legislation, policy and governance– Weather prediction and EWS, dissemination of early warning – Capacity building– Partnership and collaboration, community involvement– Linking DRR, CAA with development planning

• Need for development (hard measures):– Vital infrastructure– Agriculture– Restore economy– Innovative technology

Change Investment Policy• Better to invest for: – prevention rather than responding

• DRR plans, strategies, and tools for adaptation• hazard and vulnerability reduction measures, • development of capacities to respond and recover from the

events– knowledge and information on

• observational and monitoring systems • forecasting extreme events and early warning• capacity building

Conclusion

We have great lessons from the disasters occurred in the recent decades

• Extreme events will happen in future, may be more frequent and intensive. Generic rule to follow for all types of hazardous events:

Know before Prepare in advance Outlive in hardship1

• Time is running so fast, without any stops, waits. So may be we need to harry up:

Creating the Future Now from the Past2

(safer) (learning) (collaboratively)

1, 2 Doctrine from Queen Sorkhogtoni Bekhi Tsetsen, XIII century Nurzed, Mongolian Supreme Golden Contract, 2002

Oyun Ravsal, Mongoliaoyun@jemr.mn

Thank you for attention!