regional refining outlook - the ice 2013-06-25آ  bonny light vs arab extra light bonny light vs...

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  • 25 June 2013

    Regional Refining Outlook

    Special Presentation

    Michael Dei-Michei

    JBC Energy GmbH

    June 2013

    Research - Energy Studies - Consulting - Training

    For ICE Market Forum

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 2

    Disclaimer

    All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking

    statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of

    future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve

    known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ

    materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among

    other things statements expressing JBC Energy’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections

    and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such

    as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’,

    ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, “forecast”, “predict”, “think”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and

    similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are

    expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.

    Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking

    statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries

    undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new

    information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from

    those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation.

    Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC

    Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable

    for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. JBC’s third party sources

    provide data to JBC on an “as-is” basis and accept no responsibility and disclaim any liability relating to

    reliance on or use of their data by any party.

  • 25 June 2013

    Overview

    Slide 3

    -10,000

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    70,000

    80,000

    90,000

    100,000

    110,000

    120,000

    130,000

    140,000

    150,000

    2007 Stock 2007 Stock

    Reforming Other Conversion

    Coking Hydrocracking

    Cat Cracking CDU Capacity

    -1,000

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

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    15,000

    2007 - 2017 Additions 2007 -2017 Additions

    Title [unit]Global CDU & Conversion Additions ['000 b/d]

    Slide 3

    Demand growth of

    main products

    (gasoline, gas oil, jet,

    naphtha, fuel oil)

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 4

    Overview

    0.00

    2.00

    4.00

    6.00

    8.00

    10.00

    12.00

    14.00

    16.00

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ytd

    Asia

    NWE

    USGC

    JBC Energy Margins by Region [$/bbl]

    Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts data

    JBC Energy margins are based on an average of

    selected margin calculations. The margins are derived

    from three different set-ups, two crude baskets and

    three yield patterns for each region .

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 5

    US

    72

    76

    80

    84

    88

    92

    96

    100

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    Last Avg 08-12

    2013 2012

    2011 2010

    2009 Avg 03-07

    US Refinery Utilisation - 4-Week Average [%]

    Source: EIA

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 6

    US

    Approximate US Crude Price Change Over Last 6 Months (May vs. Nov) [$/bbl]

    PADD II & IVPADD V

    PADD III

    PADD I

    WCS November vs May: +$15

    Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts, Reuters

    WTI November vs May: +$9

    Syncrude November vs May: +$14

    Mars November vs May: -$3

    Bonny Light (CIF) November vs May: -$4

    ANS November vs May: no

    change

    ESPO (CIF) November vs May: - $6

    Bakken November vs May: +$11

    WTS November vs May: +$19

    LLS November vs May: -$1

    Bakken vs ESPO: -$12 Bakken vs Bonny

    Light: -$15

    Bakken vs LLS: -$13

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 7

    US

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    Light Distillates Middle Distallates Fuel Oil Coke/Asphalt

    PADD3 Blend

    Light/Heavy Blend

    Dumbbell Effect - PADD3 Average Refining Yields [%]

    Light/Heavy blend

    consists of equal

    shares of Eagle Ford

    50 , Eagle Ford 40 ,

    Bakken, Maya, Merey

    and WCS

    Slide 7

  • 25 June 2013

    US

    Slide 8

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

    Monthly Utilisation Rate

    Monthly Utilisation Rate

    Utilisation Rates of USGC Refineries 1985-2013 [%; °API]

    Average Gravity of Crude Intake [ API]

    C D

    U U

    ti li s

    a ti

    o n

    [ %

    ]

    Source: JBC Energy, EIA

    Utilisation by light product outputUtilisation by secondary capacity

    Slide 8

  • 25 June 2013

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13

    -2,000

    -1,000

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000 Total Products Net-Imports - Right Scale

    Total Products Exports

    Total Products Imports

    US Products Trade Flows ['000 b/d]

    Source: EIA

    Slide 9

    US

    Slide 9

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 10

    US / Global

    -2,500

    -2,000

    -1,500

    -1,000

    -500

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

    Canada & Mexico Central & South America Europe

    Asia Africa Middle East

    FSU East U.S. Crude Production

    Y-o-Y Changes to U.S. Crude Oil Imports & Production ['000 b/d]

    Source: EIA, JBC Energy calculations

    February & March 2013 figures are JBC

    Estimates based on weekly EIA data

    Slide 10

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 11

    Europe

    -0.30

    -0.20

    -0.10

    0.00

    0.10

    0.20

    0.30

    May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13

    Bonny Light vs Arab Extra Light

    Bonny Light vs Forties

    Bonny Light vs Urals NWE

    Bonny Light vs Flotta

    Bonny Light Incentive in Medium Setup w. Complex Basket in NWE [$/bbl]

    Source: JBC Energy calculation based on H/Comet and Platts, Galbraith's, CR Weber

    The incentive to run a crude is

    calculated by adding an extra 5% to the

    complex European crude basket

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 12

    Europe / Global

    -2.00

    -1.00

    0.00

    1.00

    2.00

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    May 09 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13

    NWE Med

    Asia USGC

    Simple vs Complex Baseloads [$/bbl]

    Source: JBC Energy using Platts data

    Source: JBC Energy based on Platts data

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 13

    Europe

    -600

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13

    Total Products Net-Imports

    US Exports to Europe

    US Imports from Europe

    US Total Product Trade with Europe ['000 b/d]

    Source: EIA The chart displays exports of all products

    ?

  • 25 June 2013

    10,000

    11,000

    12,000

    13,000

    14,000

    15,000

    16,000

    17,000

    Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

    Crude NGLs Other Feedstocks

    OECD Europe - Refinery Intake by Stream ['000 b/d]

    Source: IEA

    Slide 14

    Europe

  • 25 June 2013 Slide 15

    Europe / Global

    Slide 15