regional patterns of evolving glacio-hydrologic processes ...€¦ · demonstrates the glacier...
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Chris Frans PhD Candidate Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Regional patterns of evolving glacio-hydrologic processes in the Pacific Northwest
Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference
September, 9 2014
Acknowledgements
2
Erkan Istanbulluoglu (UW) Dennis Lettenmaier (UW, UCLA)
Garry Clarke (UBC) Matt Stumbaugh (UW) Christina Bandaragoda (UW) Andrew Fountain (PSU) Matthew Bachmann (USGS) Jon Riedel (NPS)
Funding: NASA Seattle City Light
Glacier Recssion and Downstream Risks: Water Management
3
http://www.panoramio.com/photo/6246614
www.facebook.com user: Denny Substation Project
www.mytpu.org
Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession
4
Phases of Hydrologic Response to persistent glacier recession
Time
Dis
char
ge
(% o
f pre
-war
min
g m
ean)
Onset of warming
Enhanced Melting
Rate
Reduction in glacier area overcomes
enhanced melting
Glacier melt no longer significantly
contributes to discharge
100
1
2
3 4
Sample of Partially Glacierized PNW Watersheds
5
Hoh
Nooksack Baker Thunder
Stehekin Cascade
Nisqually
Hood
Partially Glacierized PNW Watersheds
6
Diablo Lake
Lake Chelan
Alder Lake Nisqually
Thunder
Stehekin
Cascade
South Cascade
Sandalee
Yawning
N. Klawatti
Nisqually
Emmons
Glacier Extent Data Sources: North Cascades ~1950, Andrew Fountain; North Cascades 2010, Landsat Imagery; Mount Rainer 1913/2009, Andrew Fountain
North Cascades Mount Rainier
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3046/
South Cascade Glacier
Nisqually Glacier
Coupled Glacio-Hydrological Modeling [Naz et al. 2014]
7
Glacier
Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM, Wigmosta et al. 1994)
Representation of ice flow is required to evolve glacier area over long time scales which is essential for the projection of low flows in partially glacierized watersheds
UBC Glacier Dynamics Model
Constraining Modeling with Observations
8
Modeled
Glacier Mass
Glacier Area
(Mount Hood)
Data Sources: South Cascade Glacier, USGS; Blue Glacier, UW ESS; Mount Hood, Jackson and Fountain (2007)
1916 2004
Model Application: Hood River, Oregon
9
Eliot Creek Diversion
Coe Creek Diversion
Hood River: Historical Analysis (1916-2010)
10
Mean Annual Daily Maximum Contribution: 49%
Maximum Daily Contribution: 77%
Hood River: Historical Analysis (1916-2010)
11
Modeled Eliot Creek September Discharge Volume
Hood River: Future Projections
12
Future simulations are forced with projections of 10 GCMs for two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) downscaled using the MACA methodology as part of the Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment project (NWCSC, CIRC).
Hood River: Future Projections
13
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
*Individual GCM data represents 10-yr running mean
Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession
14
Diagnosing Present Phase of Hydrologic Response D
isch
arge
(%
of p
re-w
arm
ing
mea
n)
Onset of warming
100
Hoh
Stehekin
Thunder
Cascade
Baker Nisqually
Nooksack
Phase
1
2
3 4
Hood
Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession
15
Projecting Future (20XX) Phase of Hydrologic Response
Dis
char
ge
(% o
f pre
-war
min
g m
ean)
Onset of warming
100 Hoh
Stehekin
Thunder
Cascade
Baker Nisqually
Nooksack
Phase
1
2
3 4
Hood
Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession
16
Describing Mechanism behind Present Phase of Hydrologic Response
Phase
Dis
char
ge
(% o
f pre
-war
min
g m
ean)
Onset of warming
100 Southern Aspect
Continental
Leeward Northern Aspect
Debris Cover
Maritime
Low Relative Elevation
High Initial %Glacier
Low Initial %Glacier
1
2
3 4
Hydrologic Response to Glacier Recession
17
Generalizing the Pathway of Hydrologic Response
2100
Smoo
thed
Dis
char
ge
Nor
mal
ized
to H
isto
rical
1
Southern Aspect Northern Aspect
Debris Cover Low Initial %Glacier
High Initial %Glacier
Time
Conclusions
18
• A framework for describing glacio-hydrologic change across the Pacific Northwest region is outlined
• An example model application in the Hood River basin demonstrates the glacier contribution to late summer streamflow has risen steadily over the last ~40 years, during a time when the non-glacier contribution has been steadily decreasing
• A consensus over climate models indicates that this glacier melt contribution will continue to increase until midcentury (Sept.)
• Ongoing data analysis and model applications in 8 river basins are being used to characterize glacio-hydrologic change across the PNW
19
References Jackson, K. M., & Fountain, A. G. (2007). Spatial and morphological change on Eliot Glacier, Mount Hood, Oregon, USA. Annals of Glaciology, 46(1), 222-226.
Jarosch, A. H., Schoof, C. G., & Anslow, F. S. (2013). Restoring mass conservation to shallow ice flow models over complex terrain. The Cryosphere, 7(1).
Naz, B. S., Frans, C. D., Clarke, G. K. C., Burns, P., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2014). Modeling the effect of glacier recession on streamflow response using a coupled glacio-hydrological model. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, 10(4).
Wigmosta, M. S., Vail, L. W., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (1994). A distributed hydrology‐vegetation model for complex terrain. Water Resources Research, 30(6), 1665-1679.
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