regional dynamics in the mediterranean and prospects for transatlantic cooperation

7/28/2019 Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation

1/60

MEDITERRANEAN PAPER SERIES 2013

REGIONAL DYNAMICS IN THE

MEDITERRANEAN AND PROSPECTS

FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATIONSilvia Colombo

Ibrahim Awad

Ahmed Farouk Ghoneim

Manfred Hafner

Leila Nachawati

Simone Tagliapietra
http://www.iai.it/index_en.asphttp://www.gmfus.org/


2/60

2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing

rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States

1744 R Street, NW

Washington, DC 20009

1 202 683 2650

F 1 202 265 1662

E [email protected]

GMF Paper Series

Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German

Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the

views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].

About GMF

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and

global challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-

tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,

by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-

cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-prot organization through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to

Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in

Washington, DC, GMF has ofces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also has

smaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.

About the Mediterranean Policy Program

Te Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe, North

Arica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;

exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues aecting Mediter-

ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic

cooperation on Mediterranean strategy.

About Istituto Affari Internazionali

Te Istituto Aari Internazionali (IAI), ounded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965, does research in the elds o oreign policy,political economics, and international security. A non-prot organization, the IAI aims to disseminate knowledge through

research studies, conerences, and publications. o that end, it cooperates with other research institutes, universities, and

oundations in Italy and abroad and is a member o various international networks. More specically, the main research

sectors are European institutions and policies, Italian oreign policy, trends in the global economy and internationalization

processes in Italy, the Mediterranean and the Middle East, deense economy and policy, and transatlantic relations. Te IAI

puts out an English-language quarterly (Te International Spectator), an online webzine (AfarInternazionali), a series o

research papers (Quaderni IAI) and an Italian oreign policy yearbook (La Politica Estera dellItalia).

Cover photo: A reugee camp in Rayak, Lebanon hosting Syrian bedouins. Te hills in the background mark the border to

Syria. March 1, 2013. Alex Kuehni
http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.iai.it/index_en.asphttp://www.iai.it/index_en.asphttp://www.gmfus.org/


3/60


4/60

Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. iii

ForewordSilvia Colombo

Zooming in on the Arab Uprisings: Domestic

and International Factors

Explanatins f th Aab upisings hav

tn t put a pmium n ith mstic

intnatinal facts. Rginal ynamics

a in m cmplx t gasp than mstic

an intnatinal tns, paticulaly in a gin

th Suthn an Eastn Mitanan

that has alays suff fm n f th lst

lvls f cpatin an intgatin in th l.

Nvthlss, ginal ynamics in th plitical,

scial, cnmic, an human mains can hlp

shapn u unstaning f th cunt situatinan futu utlk f th gin in th ak f

tansfmativ changs. This pt tis t fill this

gap by cntxtualizing ginal ynamics in th

ba famk f tansatlantic latins ith

th Mitanan.1

Th s-call Aab Sping has l t shifting

mstic plitical alignmnts, fms, an

in sm cass gim changs. A hst f

accunts hav fcus n th mstic facts that

tigg th unpcnt av f unst that

pcipitat th fall f hat nc ga asbust an cnsliat gims. Amng thm,

stuctual an cntingnt facts, anging fm th

unsustainability f th scial cntact btn th

uls an th ul, t th tiating sci-

cnmic cnitins suff by lag stata f th

ppulatin, in paticula yung ppl an th

shinking mil class, t th acut blitatin f

civic an plitical ights, hav ftn bn amng

th xplanatins ff f th vnts that alt

th imag f Nth Afica an th Mil East in

aly 2011. Smtims aing t ths assssmnts,

but m ftn pviing altnativ vis,intnatinal facts hav als bn pminntly

1 On th thm f ginal ynamics an lat issus, sS.C. Callya, Securty Chenges n the Eur-Med Are n the21stCentury: Mre Nstru, Rutlg, 2012, an, by th samauth, Ngtng Regn Dyncs n the Pst-Cd WrWrd: Ptterns f Retns n the Medterrnen Are, Dat-muth Publishing C Lt, 1997.

qut as bing amng th main ynamicsunpinning an xplaining th Aab upisings

an th nsuing tansitin pcsss. Th uzn

cisis an th failu f th Eupan Unin (EU)-

spns mcacy pmtin initiativs in

th gin, as ll as th Unit Stats ging

isngagmnt fm it an its statgic pivt

ta Asia hav ftn bn pint at as lng-

tm facts that hav shap, an ill cntinu t

shap, th futu f th Nth Afican an Mil

Eastn gin.

Taking ths xplanatins int accunt, t maj

tns can b intifi that chaactiz th

Suthn an Eastn Mitanan cuntis

(SEMCs) in th ak f th Aab upisings. Th

fist is thi incas fagmntatin an th

appaanc f smingly cntifugal tajctis

acss th gin ith cuntis at iffnt

stags f th tansitin pcss. Whil it is nt yt

pssibl t hav a cla pictu f th utcm

f th Tunisian an Egyptian tansitins u t

th unctaintis assciat ith such pcsss,

it is cla that in th sht-t-mium tm, th

iffncs btn th plitical vlpmntf th t cuntis ill tn t pvail v th

similaitis. This can b xplain by th iffnt

timing an squncing f th vaius stps f th

tansitin, .g., th cnstitutin-afting pcss,

th lctin cycls, an fms, an by th

iffnt gs f cnflict xisting amng th

lits in th t cass. Th scn hallmak f th

gin tay has t ith th pivtal psitin

ccupi by n plitical acts, namly th

vaius Islamist patis that hav mg by an

lag as th mst victius plitical fcs in th

gin aft th fist f an fai lctins v t


5/60

The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesiv

.

T T E .

A x , E NP (ENP), -, - . A , U S E I k . T k / , U S - .

B E U.S. A x

. T E U.S. k , R, Tk, C, AG S, M . I x W M

T M P S F . S S. C, P. C, J. K,N S-P A N A. A TP,M Ps Ss, F , ://..//---------.

U S E x A . T k S, k R, , S A Q, , . S, x E Q TSq M : q-I -, --q - ( , I Q

).

New Regional Dynamics

U , , x A . R S E M, qz ,

, -x, . I, A k . S- S EM ,

S N. T, E. M, S. z, S. G, I M P M: T R Tk G C C,M Ps SsJ , ://..//----------k-----; S. C ., T GCC M L A S,MPs Ss, D , ://..//----------;D. H ., T M R MW. E R R, C, I, Bz,

M Ps Ss, F , ://..//--------------z.
http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-mediterranean-region-in-a-multipolar-world-evolving-relations-with-russia-china-india-and-brazilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-gcc-in-the-mediterranean-in-light-of-the-arab-springhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/ideational-and-material-power-in-the-mediterranean-the-role-of-turkey-and-the-gulf-cooperation-councilhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective


6/60

Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. v

.B k, , , . N I- -A S x, S E M .

I S E M. G - , ..,A, A, E, . I , k . T k .

T ( k ) M E S Mx. T k M ; ; ; , , . T x ( k ) ,, . T , k q j :

W // /, , M ?;

H , , -A S x?;

W -,, M ?;

H x , , E U S, ?;

H M ?

N (, , ), , , k j.A , x, . Ex x

j j . F, j , - . A , ,, , ---

x A . Ex k , , k .


7/60

The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesvi

Trade and Investments:Plus a Change

?

A , A G SEMC A , E , j . N z .A ,

qz . W x - , k -- q .

T

. O , SEMC x q k . O , . I , U S EU

j.

Population Movements and Refugee Flows:

The Existence of an Arab Region

T A I

A, T,E, L, S. T A x A , x Tk . O , , A , . Tx q

. T q , k .

A , x A , A E .S E

T L. T : E , E .

The Mediterranean Energy Landscape: The

Challenge of Diversification and Integration

T A SEMC

U S E.T SEMC z , . T, x .


8/60

Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. vii

I , - . F, , z, , , x , , .

A , SEMC , .W x ( Tk, E, M), , , . T SEMC j. F , .

T

M G C C(GCC) SEMC. I , . T GCC, SEMC, ( x) x E, , A . T M H S T

S E M .

New Media, Cultural Awareness, and

Integration from Below

T , L N, : . T ,

v- A S, , k 96. T k -A , , z z. Hz , z , ,

-- , , SEMC.

H, , , , q .E

, j, M .


9/60

Regional Dynamics in the Mediterranean and Prospects for Transatlantic Cooperation. 1

Introduction

T A x , T E, Y, S, L,

. I , x x (, , ). Y, q . W A S S EM (SEMC)? T x k SEMC: E, J,S, L, M, T, A, L. T x - (A L) (E, L,M, J, S, T). T SEMC

. S , J M, .T z L, - S . S SEMC x A S . I , j SEMC x ,

A , S M

E U (EU), .4

T x , ,

. P z , , ( ).5 T 99. A . T k , x A , , .

F , k x A , ,, x. C, x , ( I), , , x ( EU, U.S. ), ( ). P W k. M, .

4

A 6-8 . S I. S, A W L C: RR C F,A-Hy, S 5, , ://.-.////9/----..

5 G x, x .

1Trade and Investment Dynamics in the MediterraneanRegion: No Real Change after the Arab Spring

Ahmed Farouk Ghoneim
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/09/the-arab-worlds-looming-crisis.html


10/60

The German Marshall Fund of the United States2

Trade and Investment Patterns

Before the Arab Spring

D ( , -S A, ; j SEMC; z) ( z W Bk (WB), I M F(IMF), W T Oz (WTO),

SEMC -99, ,6 .O SEMC, WTO(E, J, M, T).7 L , A, S, L . M, SEMC j (PTA). Y, SEMC . I ,

. F x, E,M, T x - , , , L A .8 M, SEMC , , EU,

6 J.-P. C, F P E Ak A W: T P E I,

MENA Dv Rs, J , ://../986/.

7 E GATT 97, M 987,T 99, J j WTO - .

8 M. M, T A E F C:A P T R,

M Y 2012, . 9-44, ://../-/-/x-j//./_.-.

7-8 k T, M, A. TEU SEMC, A G EU j SEMCM , ( ).T k.

T : E (C q x 9 C I x), x - SEMC.

O .H, L A , SEMC x (T ). I , M, T, E , ,

9 I ,C k x SEMC. S WTO, T Ps2012, , ://..//_/_/__.. F x, E 4.6 8.4 8,

J 4. .4 8.T T M, . . .7 5.7 8. S J.-P.C, F P E Ak AW,

W Bk, S MENAs T IvssLs C I, W, T W Bk, 8,://.k./6ZK8UTFV .
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221http://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://go.worldbank.org/6ZK8UTFV10http://go.worldbank.org/6ZK8UTFV10http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/trade_profiles12_e.htmhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://www.iemed.org/observatori-en/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/med.2012/mouhoud_en.pdf-enhttp://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12221


11/60


. T x SEMC EU, - ( , , x - ), k . M, - , k , . I , D B () W Bk IF C (IFC), SEMC

, 85, x M, k 97. T , . T SEMC k , k , .4

SEMC PTA . TPTA P A

F T A (PAFTA), 8A SEMC, A ( E,M, T, J),

T EU SEMC, x J. S WTO, T Ps 2012,

C z ( ) . T

. T .

A.F. G, A NTB E-M Z, L. DW M. Mzk (.), E I E-M R, CASE N Rs, N. 89,D 9, ://.-.///5579.

4 A.F. G ., S D I M C EU M R, CASE N Rs, N. 96, J, ://.-.///559.

PTA SEMC. PAFTA k, x PAFTA (8 x ). T A SEMC xz PTA EU, k .S PTA SEMC PAFTA A, . I ,

x. T SEMC PTA EU ( , ), U S (J M), C Mk E SA COMESA (E L), Tk,EFTA, S, C.

Factors Behind Such Patterns

T SEMC , 96. I SEMC, , . O SEMC . S

, . I 98,
http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55790http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55930http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55930http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/55790


12/60


Table 1 Export Structure of SEMCs (1990-2011)

Country Exports (% of merchandise

exports)

Average

(1990-

1999)

Average

(2000-

2009)

2010 2011

A A .4 . . .

F .6 . .6 .5

F 95.7 97.4 97. 97.

O .5 .5 . .

M . . .8 .

E A 5.4 4. . .9

F 9.6 9.6 7. 4.9

F 4. 4.6 9.8 .7

O 5.8 4. 6. 6.

M 7.4 . 4.4 44.4

J A .8 . . .

F 8.9 5. 6.6 7.

F . .4 . .

O 9.7 .8 8.5 .

M 5.6 7.5 7.6 7.4

L A .6 .9 .7 .8

F .9 7. 4.9 8.4

F . . . .

O 8.6 . .7 .7

M 68.8 69.9 6.6 66.9

L A .

F .5

F 94.

O .

M 5.

M A .6 .6 .7

F 7.4 . 9.

F .4 . .

O . 9.5 .7

M 55.4 66. 66.


13/60


SEMC. W k ( , , ). T , ( IMF WB), SEMC.

A , SEMC, x L A ( ), , . N, x A k. T :

T x ,

SEMC.

T SEMC, , x .

Wk , -k SEMC, .5

T SEMC

, , / .

T SEMC , .

T j SEMC, ,

, .

5 A C P Ix 2012, SEMC , Jk SEMC L ; . J k 58 L 6 76 . S T- I, C P Ix 2012, ://..// .

S A 6.5 .7 .7

F 5. 6. .

F 6. 58. 49.9

O . .5 .7

M 4. 9. 4.7

T A .7 .6 .5

F .9 9. 7.7

F .9 .5 4.

O .4 .4 .6M 76. 76. 76.

Source: World Bank, WDI Database.
http://www.transparency.org/cpi2012/resultshttp://www.transparency.org/cpi2012/resultshttp://www.transparency.org/cpi2012/resultshttp://www.transparency.org/cpi2012/results


14/60


W , x . I , .

T k SEMC, PTA, x , ( x ), (k ), (k k - ).6

The Arab Spring: Is it Likely to

Change Such Patterns?

T A S j SEMC , x , , A S .

O , SEMC x I. I , . I , I SEMC. A . T SEMC (T, E, L) . T k, , , . S , I k k

6 H. K-E-D A.F. G, A T I R: C E U Ex- L L, I E E U: L A R, FEMISERs, N. FEM-7, N 5, ://../PDF//FEM7..

k . L . J M k , , , I

.A SEMC, . B q I

SEMC.

T SEMC A S, , . T A S , . T , x , k. T ,

, . E k , .7 I x . I , - . A ,

Ez SEMC ,

7 T , .G k -. P -, - , ,, , .
http://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdfhttp://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdfhttp://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdfhttp://www.femise.org/PDF/ao22/FEM2207.pdf


15/60


E, qz

, , .

T U S, k - SEMC. I , SEMC j , j k ( J M k IMF , ),

. J M .8 TM

8 W Bk, I G J,MENAE Dvs Pss Rs, S ,://../986/44 .

5- J .9 S,

, j , .L , x S. A , , A S

x, . T E T

, ,

9 L. A, A R F P M T R, J Tk?,A M, J , , ://.-.////6/------..

Figure 1 Deterioration of International Reserves between 2010 and 2012 in Selected SEMCs

Source: IMF, Arab Countries in Transition Economic Developments and Fund Engagement, Presentation at the Luxembourg

Group Meeting, January 24, 2013.
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12434http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/business/2012/06/rise-of-fuel-prices-in-morocco-r.htmlhttp://hdl.handle.net/10986/12434


16/60


, . T E , .7 GDP -; 9- - -, US$5 J $5 D . T j SEMC (F ). T

E T . I , FDI E, j A, . I T, FDI 6 , , .

T SEMC

k, k , , k.4 A

E M F, Sy Gv FsOs, ://.../E/P/F%D.x.

C Bk E, Eys B Pys, ://.../E/E+R/T+S.

C Bk E, I Rsvs, ://.../SDDS/IR..

IMF, T F E, S C H T, IMF Svy Mz, S5, , ://../x//////95..

4 F A S, S. M, T ED: T P F, K.M. Pk ., T

A A A Ts MEs, W, Bk I P, , . 66-75.

. I SEMC . T k x . Y, , , (k x )

, . T . W U S EU, A G , - .

F, x SEMC . A I F P

R I (IFPRI) A

.5

A SEMC, q A S SEMC :

5 B , B A Ak: P I P R F S, FPy Rs, N. 5, F , ://..//--k.
http://www.mof.gov.eg/English/Pages/Fiscal%20Deficit.aspxhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/English/Pages/Fiscal%20Deficit.aspxhttp://www.cbe.org.eg/English/Economic+Research/Time+Serieshttp://www.cbe.org.eg/English/Economic+Research/Time+Serieshttp://www.cbe.org.eg/SDDS/InternationalReserves.htmhttp://www.cbe.org.eg/SDDS/InternationalReserves.htmhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car090512a.htmhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car090512a.htmhttp://www.ifpri.org/publication/beyond-arab-awakeninghttp://www.ifpri.org/publication/beyond-arab-awakeninghttp://www.ifpri.org/publication/beyond-arab-awakeninghttp://www.ifpri.org/publication/beyond-arab-awakeninghttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car090512a.htmhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car090512a.htmhttp://www.cbe.org.eg/SDDS/InternationalReserves.htmhttp://www.cbe.org.eg/SDDS/InternationalReserves.htmhttp://www.cbe.org.eg/English/Economic+Research/Time+Serieshttp://www.cbe.org.eg/English/Economic+Research/Time+Serieshttp://www.mof.gov.eg/English/Pages/Fiscal%20Deficit.aspxhttp://www.mof.gov.eg/English/Pages/Fiscal%20Deficit.aspx


17/60


T I k.6 H, , k q , k . I , I T,M, J, E ,

.7

Y, , k . T (q ), I k , . T , I .

T . T x, E S W. T k , ,

6 F , Y. S, N I C

S M,A-Hy, O, 8, ,://-.//?=4975. U , T I , .

7 I. S M. A R, T E A I P, C Ps, M , ://-.//5/9/----/.

( SEMC ).

A . G SEMC , k - . T q , k ; k SEMC, .8M, k U S EU, SEMC E .9 A , x , S BRICS .

T k US EU, , SEMC, , PTA . T U S T IFk A (TIFA) SEMC (A, E, J, L,L, S, M, T,

8

W Bk, D Bsss s, ://.-..

9 F P. S, M M RE M L R,A M, O 5, ,://.-.////-/---..

Y. S, N I C S M,
http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=49725http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/29/economic-agenda-of-islamist-parties/b0fhhttp://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/29/economic-agenda-of-islamist-parties/b0fhhttp://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/29/economic-agenda-of-islamist-parties/b0fhhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/http://www.doingbusiness.org/http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/morsi-egypt-regional-role.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/morsi-egypt-regional-role.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/morsi-egypt-regional-role.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/morsi-egypt-regional-role.htmlhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/http://www.doingbusiness.org/http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/29/economic-agenda-of-islamist-parties/b0fhhttp://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/29/economic-agenda-of-islamist-parties/b0fhhttp://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/29/economic-agenda-of-islamist-parties/b0fhhttp://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=49725


18/60


) G.W. B FTA, z. A , , U.S. E , SEMC k. T D I G8 M . Y, , ,

j.

E k L , j k.

I PTA x , . T z , . H,

T D C, F, G,I, J, K, Q, R, S A, Tk, U A E, U K, U S.T E,M, J, T, L . S J.-P. C, F P E Ak A W,

P. S A. K, L T T,

C Ps, J 4, , ://.//6/4/---/z4.

S ( ), . T R L. D x - - . S R.Z.L, Rs, Ms, D I,W, Bk I P, 996.

, .

B x, , , , .

R k .4 H, SEMC. T k , x , M , j , EU U S, SEMC. Lk

. M, SEMC, EU U S , , , . S , k , k SEMC .

4 A I I F (IIF) , . S IIF, MENA: A T C, U- M, IIF R Ovv, D , .
http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/14/libya-s-troubled-transition/bzw4http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/14/libya-s-troubled-transition/bzw4http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/14/libya-s-troubled-transition/bzw4http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06/14/libya-s-troubled-transition/bzw4


19/60


T A . T k . Y, , , k .H, G I . E A,

M B J M .5

Conclusions

T A S j SEMC, x . H, . T , , k x

k . R SEMC , . T SEMC q . T EU US SEMC z . H,

j , . M

5 K. A S, A S G R, T Ps,N 9, , ://q./--/66-----..

SEMC. Tq , k I G

x, SEMC. M, SEMC EU . A k k k q x k SEMC EU.

T EU z EU SEMC E, x, EU 8, z j , x .Y, z / q, - (.., ). I z

C F T A A S EU SEMC k , , - k SEMC x EU.

T , , SEMC. H, , k SEMC z k.6

6 A.F. G, L T S FA S M C: A U V I- T I,M Y 2009,. 4-46, ://..//9//4..
http://thepeninsulaqatar.com/editor-in-chief/213626-arab-spring-in-gulf-region.htmlhttp://thepeninsulaqatar.com/editor-in-chief/213626-arab-spring-in-gulf-region.htmlhttp://www.iemed.org/anuari/2009/aarticles/a242.pdfhttp://www.iemed.org/anuari/2009/aarticles/a242.pdfhttp://www.iemed.org/anuari/2009/aarticles/a242.pdfhttp://www.iemed.org/anuari/2009/aarticles/a242.pdfhttp://thepeninsulaqatar.com/editor-in-chief/213626-arab-spring-in-gulf-region.htmlhttp://thepeninsulaqatar.com/editor-in-chief/213626-arab-spring-in-gulf-region.html


20/60


F, EU U S SEMC , x , k k

. T .


21/60


Introduction

T k A MB T D

E, L, S k k . P - j . T . T x

:, ; , . T , k k .T , k .

M .H,

. G, , . I E, A S , x . B E U (EU) M , , E

N A. P . T k A. W , , Tk S . B ,

A S .7 I A S x , k .

T , , . T T E, . T .T L, x , , . T S . H x, S P Iq S .

T A S .8 U , , EU , z .

7 A H, AS - E AS . S H. H, T AS M,M , M , , ://..///---.. A E, A E j E ,

j x E -. S F.Y. E, T M B S F Y A S,J Ts Wy, J ,, ://.kk.//6 .

8 T - -. T q (IDP) S . A UN , .5 -J .

2The Arab Spring and Population Movementsin the Mediterranean RegionIbrahim Awad
http://heindehaas.blogspot.it/2012/03/arab-spring-and-migration.htmlhttp://heindehaas.blogspot.it/2012/03/arab-spring-and-migration.htmlhttp://heindehaas.blogspot.it/2012/03/arab-spring-and-migration.htmlhttp://www.turkishweekly.net/columnist/3633http://www.turkishweekly.net/columnist/3633http://heindehaas.blogspot.it/2012/03/arab-spring-and-migration.htmlhttp://heindehaas.blogspot.it/2012/03/arab-spring-and-migration.htmlhttp://heindehaas.blogspot.it/2012/03/arab-spring-and-migration.html


22/60


Tunisia and Egypt as Potential

Sources of Migration

T E x .I, x . W Bk T 9 - , .4 .T Bk E 4.7 9 5. , .9 ,

. .9

T , . I T, , , q . IE, 9.8 , 4.7 .4

N, z. E

. I k , .

I , 5, T M I. U

9 F T , W Bk, Ts Ovv, A , ://.k.////. F E, E GDP .9 /, .4 /: G ,AO, F , , ://.../N-C///444/B/E/E-GDP---

--,-----.x.4 O T, AFP, T 6 q,A O, J , , ://.../NC///4897/B/E/T--------q-.x. O E, A. F, E: A ,A O, J 5, , ://.../NC///5/B/E/E-A----.x.

x.4 C E, 5, T .4 H, T - z.

T x . F, E M k . S, EU M . A I, F, G, M, N, S, x q. A P I, S, I .4 I - FRONTEX,

EU A .44 T, I T A , ,

4 P. F C. F, M A S,M Py C Rs R, N. /9, ://../84/54.

4 D. V, Sz D I M EU, Cs Pj Cv Py Bs, O

9, ://../--/#-68.

4 Fx, Hs 2011 , F , , ://x..//---T7JL.

44 S. C, L. H, J. Pk, EU M P k A S: W EU-SM R?,MEDPRO T Rs, N. 5,A , . 5, ://..//75 .
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/34440/Business/Economy/Egypt-GDP-grows--pct-in-,--pct-growth-predicted-fo.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/34440/Business/Economy/Egypt-GDP-grows--pct-in-,--pct-growth-predicted-fo.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/34440/Business/Economy/Egypt-GDP-grows--pct-in-,--pct-growth-predicted-fo.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/32523/Business/Economy/Egypt-A-revolutionary-year-in-numbers.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/32523/Business/Economy/Egypt-A-revolutionary-year-in-numbers.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/32523/Business/Economy/Egypt-A-revolutionary-year-in-numbers.aspxhttp://www.frontex.europa.eu/news/hermes-2011-running-T7bJgLhttp://www.frontex.europa.eu/news/hermes-2011-running-T7bJgLhttp://www.ceps.eu/node/7215http://www.ceps.eu/node/7215http://www.frontex.europa.eu/news/hermes-2011-running-T7bJgLhttp://www.frontex.europa.eu/news/hermes-2011-running-T7bJgLhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/32523/Business/Economy/Egypt-A-revolutionary-year-in-numbers.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/32523/Business/Economy/Egypt-A-revolutionary-year-in-numbers.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/32523/Business/Economy/Egypt-A-revolutionary-year-in-numbers.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/48297/Business/Economy/Tunisia-tourism-revenues-up--pct-in-first-quarter-.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/34440/Business/Economy/Egypt-GDP-grows--pct-in-,--pct-growth-predicted-fo.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/34440/Business/Economy/Egypt-GDP-grows--pct-in-,--pct-growth-predicted-fo.aspxhttp://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/34440/Business/Economy/Egypt-GDP-grows--pct-in-,--pct-growth-predicted-fo.aspx


23/60


.45

I T .46 C .47

E A k k .T E x . H, , . R , E k x . W , . I, . O 5 , . Uk T, j E E ,

S A G C C (GCC), E . S j k E k k , S A. BS A , x, UA E (UAE) k

45 I.

46 H. H N. S, M R, FM Rv, N. 9, J , . 4-5, ://.-

./-/-..47 S E. P, M A I N A: D I IN,MEI Ayss, D 9, , ://..//---------. S E C,EUs ss A S: T S--Py TYs, F 8, , ://.//-_MEMO--8_..

E. I , , z.

T E GCC. F, M B, E, UAE E . T q : E GCC E I.48

T , M , x T E, E E . T, x k E,

q .

I z z T E, , z. G

48 I k M A T UAE ( A),A Msy A Y,F 8, , ://../.x?AID=769. T UAE I-E .T , , E UAE z I-E .
http://www.fmreview.org/north-africa/dehaas-sigona.htmlhttp://www.fmreview.org/north-africa/dehaas-sigona.htmlhttp://today.almasryalyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=370369http://today.almasryalyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=370369http://today.almasryalyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=370369http://today.almasryalyoum.com/article2.aspx?ArticleID=370369http://www.fmreview.org/north-africa/dehaas-sigona.htmlhttp://www.fmreview.org/north-africa/dehaas-sigona.html


24/60


.49

A, , , , . I, C k J , HV R, EU, U x 5 E -.5

I , A S, T E, . T . T L k k . P L, , z.

Mixed Migration Flows Resulting

from the Libyan Crisis

S L x. A , k 6,, 75, . . I , I Oz M (IOM) k .5 , 5

49 E C, H R U

F A S P,A Ps D-y S Psy S M(COM() ), B, M 8, , ://-x../LxUS/LxUS.?=x:5::.

5 E C, Rs y Ps H VRy s s Ey M

Ms, C, J , , ://...//_/////4655..

.5

L -S A , k , k E.5 I M I L.5

T L . T .L G D P (GDP) 6 , .54 M k T E, .A T E k , .55 I, IOM z - L . A z A , S E,56

C, N, N, M, S, G, Bk F.57 I ,

5 IOM, Ly Css O M IOMs Rss, M8, , ://./j////////MENA-O-M-R..

5 C. Az, P. Q, S. T,Ms C Css: T IOM Ex Ly, G, IOM, , ://../k/x.?_=_&_=785.

5 A. D B, T. J, D. P, L, CARIMM Ps, J , ://../x.?C=5.

54 S W Bk, Ly Ovv, A , ://.k.////.

55 C. Az, P. Q, S. T,Ms C Css, .

56 I, . .

57 I, . .
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0200:en:nothttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0200:en:nothttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0200:en:nothttp://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/134655.pdfhttp://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/134655.pdfhttp://iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/media/docs/reports/MENA-One-Month-Report.pdf.http://iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/media/docs/reports/MENA-One-Month-Report.pdf.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=785.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=785.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=785.http://www.carim.org/index.php?callContent=502.http://www.carim.org/index.php?callContent=502.http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/overview.http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/overview.http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/overview.http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/overview.http://www.carim.org/index.php?callContent=502.http://www.carim.org/index.php?callContent=502.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=785.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=785.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=785.http://iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/media/docs/reports/MENA-One-Month-Report.pdf.http://iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/media/docs/reports/MENA-One-Month-Report.pdf.http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/134655.pdfhttp://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/134655.pdfhttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0200:en:nothttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0200:en:nothttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0200:en:not


25/60


26/60


. D 95 R C ( 967 P), 969 A U C, E . I, ( ) UNHCR, k ,UN, NGO .68 T

, E z T.69 UNHCR A S , , - .7 I , (), , . F , z z ( IOM UNHCR). A, E, .

A z .M, . T U S,S, C L .7

I , . S E U -

68

I.69 S UNHCR, UNHCR s v s s Ey , M , , ://../466956..

7 I.

7 H. Hz A. G, T A S M E,

[] N A.7

F AS, E U MS , , - , .7 H z EU . I , .

N, q.A UNHCR E , ,7 - L-E .74A k L , x, L E. R x L E. P

G k E. T L E, k . F , , k.

A IOM , 79, L, .9 , 7,465, I M.75

7 Y. M, T EU S-I R U N A, S Ayss, V. 4, N. , J ,

://..//-65---..7 P. F C. F, M A S,., . .

74 S UNHCR, 2013 UNHCR y s - Ey,://../-/x/x/?=4948656.

75 C. Az, P. Q, S. T,Ms C Css, ., . 5.
http://www.unhcr.org/4f6b6f956.html.http://www.unhcr.org/4f6b6f956.html.http://www.statewatch.org/analyses/no-165-eu-north-africa.pdf.http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/page?page=49e486356.http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/page?page=49e486356.http://www.statewatch.org/analyses/no-165-eu-north-africa.pdf.http://www.unhcr.org/4f6b6f956.html.http://www.unhcr.org/4f6b6f956.html.


27/60


F IOM, k E, x L(I) M, . R - L k E.76

T , ,IOM $7, 64 US ($8 ), E C($7 ) B ($ ). TW Bk B $4 IOM , B k q .77B IOM, EU $55 z L .78A EU , I

T L.

I , L A , T E, S . I , k k , A. I

76 I, . 9.

77 B. K A.J. W, A L M H C L, IOM-MPI Iss B, N. ,J , . 4, ://../k/x.?_=_&_=85.

78 S EA, EU ss A S Ovv ,O , ://..///-/-/-//______.

, T E q k. M EU L. T k z L, , E q L

. T, , , .

The Syrian Refugee Crisis

T S A S. A , L. I , , . F, S L . I

z L. T . L ; M. I , S . I, L , S S. A , j

: x . W L, T, E, S, C,N, A,
http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=815.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=815.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/regional-cooperation/enpi-south/documents/eu_response_to_the_arab_spring_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/regional-cooperation/enpi-south/documents/eu_response_to_the_arab_spring_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/regional-cooperation/enpi-south/documents/eu_response_to_the_arab_spring_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/regional-cooperation/enpi-south/documents/eu_response_to_the_arab_spring_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/regional-cooperation/enpi-south/documents/eu_response_to_the_arab_spring_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/neighbourhood/regional-cooperation/enpi-south/documents/eu_response_to_the_arab_spring_en.pdfhttp://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=815.http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=815.


28/60


L - . S, L, J, Iq, Tk, E S . R . T (E) M. F Iq, Iq S, . F L P S

q .

T S k . R UNHCR x.6 M (5,48 L; 47,6 J; 76,64 Tk;55,9 Iq; 77,69 E).79 T S E k UNHCR. S, D , J

, S . Tk E 7, . L .8 D k, S , L.8

79 UNHCR, Sy R R Rss, ://..//.

8 UNHCR, N S

5, k, D , , ://../576.

8 I S L: W k L 6, k-. S M. Z, Hz S, T Dy S, D 6, , ://.-../N/L-N//O-/8974-z------.x

O , , x A, , x Tk , S . I A , .

A , x q S .F k , , . I , L q S . T L S . C S S , S,

. R .8 I , S S. T , . M P , 6 , . S L

, S .

8 O S L, , x, H. S, B R I R,A Hy, J , , ://.D/474.
http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.phphttp://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.phphttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://alhayat.com/Details/472143.http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Oct-01/189714-hezbollah-offers-health-care-to-syrian-refugees.ashxhttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://www.unhcr.org/50c70ca36.htmlhttp://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.phphttp://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php


29/60


I , S . T Tk .H S, Tk j k S . W S , k , , NATO P Tk .

I L ,S , ,, , , , .8S . E . A S L

E . S S, , . T , .

T q S .T . L . I . J

8 T q S . I - L, E, , . A J . I , Tk 4 S , ,.

P . I Iq . T S x , , A S. E .I . I . S / S S H A .

I L, z, LR C S NGO G .Hz, S -, S .84 T z L R C Hz .

I z, UNHCR, UNICEF, W H Oz (WHO), WF P (WFP), IOM, , L, .I NGO, NR C, S C, DR C, Q UAE RC, C k z . D

84 O Hz : k k F S A; , Hz k . S M. Z, Hz S , . T - , .


30/60


S , L J, E C, ECHO, EU A, Cz R,Dk, F, F, G, I,I, N, S, S, U K. D A,Bz, K, C, Sz, US. D , NGO, INGO . EU U.S.

4 , .85

A A , K, Q, S A, UAE .

N, . T , FM L A S (LAS) J , K . T LAS L,J, Iq .

A, A F M S, UNHCR, . A K , x UNHCR $.5 z. I EU U.S. ,K, S A, UAE .86 T A S q .

85 D S x UN , Es, J, , ://..////----x--.

86 A L H M S,J TsWy, J 4, , ://.kk.//4648/-----..

T S z . B S, L, . I T , L. T , , , . T

. I S . T .F, x - . S, x , J.I , x .T

.U, k .

Conclusions

M A , x , T, E, L, S. S T . E

x . T x k . D . T x L k , k
http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target.http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/146418/arab-league-held-meeting-on-syria.html.http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target.http://www.euronews.com/2013/01/30/donations-for-syria-aid-exceed-un-target.


31/60


qk x. T . N, L-E .M k x k L , k . B q L . W ,

k k .

S A S. T . T q , L. I , k q , , .

N , E,

A S, x . A , EU A S z .T , , , x z S.

T

k ,, , E, q - A . U,, ,

, , x G . P A S . Iz N A EU, x, k .I E j

- , . M k q k .H, 7, k E. D x EU U

S . T x I F I (IFI) , , A S . A x . M E , M, x . A ,

A S . T EU U S .


32/60


T EU U S k k . S A z, z,

k q . B A E .


33/60


Introduction

T A S M .T

, . T q - , , A S, S E

M (SEMC) - .

T M x , N S M: - - - N - - - S. A ,

k M .T M.87

W M, E N A. I N 995, B D, EU- M . T E-M -E k

87 F M , M. H, S. T, E.H. E E-, Ok O G S E M- C,MP T Rs, N. 8, O, ://..//7447.

E-M k. H, E-M .I E M, . I , U.S. EU , .

T A S q M, . A A S .

E - , j EU U S M . I, k :) )

. S , k, , x , . I .

T j M . W

, Tk, P G M, LB. C

3A New Transatlantic Approach to Mediterranean EnergyCooperation: Joint Efforts and New Synergies after theArab Spring

Manfred Hafner and Simone Tagliapietra
http://www.ceps.eu/node/7447.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7447.


34/60


, , SEMC, , G CC (GCC). I , U.S./EU M-EP I k M .

Mediterranean Energy Cooperation

before the Arab SpringA k M . T x x SEMC 6 ()/, 6 / 44 / q (LNG) M . T j 6-/ x N A (

/): A, 77 / (x LNG ); E, 8 / ( x LNG); L, / ( x LNG ).

I M , :

E M P (A-I, T), 98, /;

P D F P (A-S,

M), 997, /;

Mz (AS, ), , 8 /;

G P (L-I, ), 4, /;

A G P (E-J-L-S), , /;

R-Tk ( Tk), 987, 4 /;

B S (R-Tk, ),4, 6 /;

S C G P (Azj-Tk), 7, 7 /;

E-I P (A-Ak,

), 8, 9 /.T LNG SEMC, 44 / ( ).F LNG A, E, L.

S , M . T NM ( T P

T G A, SE P M G), ( E: SzM SUMED P), (Tk: IqTk P BkTC P), E M ( T-A CO P (TAP) A G S A, J, S, L, IqS ), .

T A S M, k x


35/60


.88 T x E. I , J5 , E x I. T z . W , I-E 979 .89

88 H. D B. F, T I AU O G Mk, Ox Is Ey

Ss W Ps, N. MEP , S , ://.x.//9/----------k.

89 F E A S, S. T, T NE M E C? N G D- B Mk O G Rk,FEEM N Lv, N. ., F , ://../.x?=5.

Transatlantic Cooperation in the

Mediterranean After the Arab Spring

Enhancing Hydrocarbon Cooperation

The Potential Role of Turkey as Energy Hub

T M E, A, ME. T k k. I , Tk SEMC , 68 75

.

9

A Tk,

9 B P (BP), Ss Rv W Ey2013, J , ://../////--/_____..

Figure 2 The natural gas infrastructure in the Mediterranean region

Source: Observatoire Mditerranen de lEnergie.
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/statistical_review_of_world_energy_2013.pdf.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5321.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2011/09/the-implications-of-the-arab-uprisings-for-oil-and-gas-markets.


36/60


. T k Iq C B (Azj

Kzk) C: KkkC BkTC (BTC) . I , SC j k k Tk S, , ,

q I. T KkkC

z F IqG B KR G E. T

Figure 3 Oil pipelines in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf

Source: U.S. Department of Energy.


37/60


x Iq Tk S.9

Tk , E M .9 T , E .9

I 8, E C S G C,

C M E - E, R F.94 T , j .H, j , Tk. T, R Uk (N S S E B Tk), N S Bk

9 F , , , Tk S, G. L, Sy O Ss: Isss Rs,D, C&C, (E E S N.4).

9 S. T, T R Tk N M-: C O E C R T, FEEM N Lv, N. 66.,

S , ://../.x?=548.9 E C, Ey R 2050 (COM()885 ), D 5, , ://-x../LxUS/LxUS.?=x:5885::.

94 E C, S S Ey Rv AEU Ey Sy Sy A P (COM(8) 78), N , 8, ://-x../LxUS/LxUS.?=x:5878::.

S. T Tk E k, E.95

T Tk E M .T Tk, q C, .M, Tk I Iq. A -x, E U.S. Tk , . C Tk

S G C, Tk - Azj, Tk, I, Iq EU .

F , Tk , . T k Tk EU. F x EU Tk, , . I

95 J.-M. G .,A N A EU Gs Sy Sy, D, C & C, (E ES N. ).
http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5048.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52008dc0781:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=celex:52011dc0885:en:not.http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=5048.


38/60


A S G C

. C - LNG Tk .

The Potential Role of Syria and Other Southeast

Mediterranean Countries for Oil Transit

S ,

.T S.T M E E M: T-A C O P (TAP)

Iq-S .96 H, . A

, . Y, . T, k , G x M.

Ts-A C O P C , 95

S A G L Z, S. F , k

96 M. H, S. T, E.H. E E, Ok O G S E M C-,

Figure 4 Oil pipelines across Turkey (existing and planned)

Source: Botas.


39/60


E U S .(T P J, G H S S L.) A k , S A .A k SA, S, L k, k, J 976. T S A J 99, S A J Iq G W.

IqSy KBys P T 8k Kkk

Iq B S , . T , 95, U.S. k . I 7, S Iq , , Sz R 9.A x , , , S , Iq S KkkB . O, .5 (/), , , .5 /, . B x S.

Figure 5 Gas pipelines across Turkey (existing and planned)

Source: Botas.


40/60


I , Iq FG B K R G E x Kkk Tk,Iq x S B x , Iq C O Ex Ex Pj F T P G.M, Iq J R S Aq.C, q Iq J

k. A Iq Y S A P A G R S, S A 99 Iq .

A I E A,Iq x x x , k Iq x . T x k. T

x z M, A B .

T Sz C E , : Sz C SUMED (, , / M). T Sz C( Sz C A) ME E. T Sz C 9-k - E, P S M S P Tq R S. LNG SzC : LNG A

E, A k, , Q O, E N A k. T LNG - LNG Q 9-. T LNG k A, Sz C . C U.K., B, I LNG Sz C.

T SUMED E Sz C A-Sk G Sz SK M , W Ax. T k A -Sk, SzC , S K. A,k A-Sk S K E .T SUMED x

E M E. T k E A S.

Natural Gas Developments in

the Eastern Mediterranean

S EM L B - .97 T 9, N E T (5 ) I. A j , N

97 F , S. T,T N E M E C? ,


41/60


E j L B: L (476 ) I () A (4- ) C (). O k L, Gz, G.

I N , I, C, G k E M E C x I C G. T , : ) j I-C LNG Vk,C; ) LNG I; ) EM C I E. A EA EI I C G.

T x I, C, G M . I z Tk.

M , LNGq C , I-Tk , T A Ak.98

T EU EM , E x . T E C E R 599

98 D. H N. T, B S Tk-I Bk, IAI W Ps, N. 5, A ,://../.?=&=9.

99 E C, Ey R 2050 (COM()885 ),

, -E , . I , 8 EU : R F, N, A. T E C k .B , . T ,

E M E C EU k.

T U S xz z k EM. K U.S. :

I ;

;

E .

T I Tk W . I x U S k .

F, U S : L B U.S. , N E.
http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langid=2&contentid=911.http://www.iai.it/content.asp?langid=2&contentid=911.


42/60


Supporting a Sustainable Energy Transition

in the Region

T SEMC z , , x . A qz . F x, , E GDP. A , , z,

, , , x . I , k - .

T SEMC ,k , k .T SEMC : k-, . T M k : .

Enforcing Energy Efficiency Measures

in the Mediterranean Region

O, SEMC . W ,

E. B ., T R E S-E D S EM,MP T Rs, N. 7, F, ://..//776.

SEMC k .

E z , , . T k , k .

T SEMC. T , . F -j -z k SEMC . Ax E Bk R D (EBRD) B Tk

( Tk S E F F M-Sz S E FF) SEMC.

Unlocking the Huge Renewable Energy Potential

of the Mediterranean Region

W x ( Tk, E, M), , , , . A SEMC ,

F. B, E E: T P S M,MP T Rs, N. ,D , ://..//757.

EBRD, Ss Ey F Fs, ://../////..
http://www.ceps.eu/node/7706.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7537.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ebrd.com/pages/sector/energyefficiency/sei/financing.shtml.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7537.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7706.


43/60


.

R x k. R j x, , .T , , x E. C z NA E ,

, SEMC x k.4

C SEMC j , .5 (GW) , 54GW (9 GW 5 GW x ). B , SEMC x x 6

GW 58 GW . T 94 GW. I , Tk,A, E, M .R x x GW Tk, GW A, 8 GW E, 4 GW M . A .5

P W M S P, PSys 2020 Is, ://.-./

x.?=_&k=&=&I=56.

4 F , M. H,S. T, E.H. E E, Ok E R E S E MC,MP T Rs, N. 6, O ,://..//756.

5 I

R j (.., ) j .6 B x , S-S . T - .7 F , k - k , , z

, , z z , . B SEMC j. F , .

Toward a Future Development Triangle:EU/U.S. - SEMCs - GCC

T M G C C (GCC) SEMC. I , x . T GCC, SEMC, x x

E,

6 I R E A, R EJ: S, P & P, IRENA W P, ,://..//x.x?=S&PMID=6&CID=4&SID=4.

7 W Bk, W Dv Is s, ://.k./.
http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7356.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://data.worldbank.org/indicator.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://www.irena.org/menu/index.aspx?mnu=Subcat&PriMenuID=36&CatID=141&SubcatID=242.http://www.ceps.eu/node/7356.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.http://www.pavingtheway-msp.eu/index.php?option=com_downloads&task=category&cid=12&Itemid=56.


44/60


.

I , (SWF) q k. B , SWF . I , GCC , - , .8P SEMC, - j.T S EM 5 GW GW . T -

: M S P D. T M S P 8 k U M j GW . D 5 GW (CSP) 5.9

8

F , S. T,T Gs Sv W Fs REy Ts N Ey P E-M- R, D, C & C, (EE S N. ).

9 E C,M S P xs - sy , F , , ://../////-/_..

H, x, , - j. T x x S E M . T k k SWF -

x . M, SWF - j SEMC EBRD.

T - j SEMC M . SWF GCC q - j,

k, , x q.

I GCC, S EM , , , M . M, - , .

Moving Forward: A New U.S./EU-Med

Energy Partnership Initiative

E
http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/energy/policies/southern-neighbourhood/msp_en.htm.


45/60


M j:

;

E ;

;

SEMC k A S. T

SEMC, , , , j . O, EU

U S. I , U S

Table 2 - SEMCs national targets on renewable energy

Country National targets

A 5 (RES) . T 4 .

E RES .

I I 9, RES . I , 5 4 . T .

J 7 RES 5 . I , M E M R (MEMR) x 6 MW , 6 MW , - 5 MW .

L RES . T N EE A P L C EC (LCEC) L G 5.

M A N E S P, 4 RES . T RES : (EE) , , ; .7

q (SWH) .S T . I , 5 .

T 6 RES 6 4 . D . S RES .

Source: Authors own elaboration.


46/60


.

T A k

E-M , , .

I A S, U.S. PBk O T I P I M E N A k EU , x U.S. E k,

z . T, z j

W H, Fs: E S M Es N A, M 8, , ://../--//5/8/-------.

U.S.-EU M , . A U.S./EU-M E P I SEMC , , .

T E Bk R D (EBRD) T EBRD k k . I 99 j C E E, k . H, A

S, U S EU k, EBRD k x Bk , SEMC . I, Bk E, J, M, T. S ,

Figure 6 A vision for a future MED11-GCC-EU development triangle

Source: Authors own elaboration.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/18/factsheet-economic-support-middle-east-and-north-africa.


47/60


59 EBRD SEMC, EU k NI F. T SEMC , EBRD . T , x EBRD

EBRD, T EBRDs Avs S EsM R, D , ://..////..

A S, EBRD x SEMC . T , EBRD, .

T , U.S./EU-M E P I , E-M . I , - k.
http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf.http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf.http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf.http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/factsheets/semed.pdf.


48/60


Introduction

I T S E M (SEMC), z k

x z. U , , E S, . N

k SEMC . T z, , , , z , z .

T , k 96. T

-A z , z . Hz -- , , SEMC. G z, ,, , ,

, x , , . T ,

-, - . H,

, j, : , , .

Integration from Above

I -A - B

S Iq, G A N A E A . T A E z. W I A , A j , , . T k , .

W , : E , z E P A-S; J ,4 H; S , A . T , G , k x x

Y.M. C,A Ns: A Hsy N S A W, Ox M, Bk, .

R.A. H, Sy Rv Av, L N Yk, R, .

4 C.R. R, J F: J I-A R F P K A II,A Ss Qy,V. 6, N. , S 4, . 4-6, ://..///.x?=68.

4New Regional Dynamics and Means ofCommunication in the Mediterranean RegionLeila Nachawati
http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802.http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802.http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802.http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/listing.aspx?id=6802.


49/60


, k z z k .5 I-A , M-Wz , z .6

T E-S U A R, 958 96. T U , . T , J Iq, , , . I G , Q, K,O, U A E, j. TA L, 945 ,

z, k . F z, - j.

5 J.A. G, U R ,F As, V. 9, N. , M/J , . 8-6.

6 B. M-Wz, T A R S A S, S. C M. W (.), C Os E M, M, M- A D S, , . 8-94, ://...///k_.

A H Bk , -A A.7 T j. T A , , .

Integration from Below

Uk -A ,

, x, , .

T A z z . T T

, , . N , , k . I M G V A, HA:

T . D T, C,Bz, S, D, k TV .T ,

7 H. Bk, A I: E P U, H. Bk,T A W Sy, C S , Bk, U C P, 99, . -47, ://..//6-/44--.
http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.teachmideast.org/essays/36-people/44-arab-identity.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.


50/60


E J,M.8

D , M E N A , . A Y zq D S Y , k .9

I k . U , , x. T , -- , .T , . T , x C W NGO E,

8 I , J , .

9 M. A A, D S Y ( A),A-N, F 6, .

A - A . A , A - 4.4 , (6. ). P. C, C S, Y, I, S. C, P. C, J. K, N S-P A N A: A T P,

M P Ss, F , . -8, ://..//---------.

C. R, W, Cz C: T R W M A W, S. C M. W (.), C Os E

M, M, M A DS, , . 4-5, ://...//-/k_.

Tk K Y, S A .

W k, - q x .T z , , .

Non-Violence and the Integrationist

Consciousness

W - SEMC z E U S, P , j. F, P . I

, z z . O , , N J :

T A P P A. N, P j .

R. A, S W, Bk R,Bs, V. , N. , J , , ://.-./.?=48.

N. J, W S P R D?, E- I, F , , ://.//----/89.
http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective.http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective.http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/inside.php?id=1483.http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/inside.php?id=1483.http://electronicintifada.net/content/who-says-palestinian-resistance-dead/10891.http://electronicintifada.net/content/who-says-palestinian-resistance-dead/10891.http://electronicintifada.net/content/who-says-palestinian-resistance-dead/10891.http://electronicintifada.net/content/who-says-palestinian-resistance-dead/10891.http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/inside.php?id=1483.http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/inside.php?id=1483.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.um.edu.mt/medac/publications/book_publications.http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective.http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective.http://www.gmfus.org/archives/new-socio-political-actors-in-north-africa-a-transatlantic-perspective.


51/60


R , J :

N T, E, P , .

Ex - , E M, F

. T S, k. T D Y G, 998 D, k k .4

W , x. I k 95

E, S, Iq, P, A S k ,, , , .

O x ME N A. F T5 S,6

4 M. K, W B R,Ms Ns,

N , , ://./?=598.5 A. A, T T G A F T,G Vs, N , , ://.////--------.

6 R. A, G W S W, G Vs,J , , ://.////----.

x . S , x , x , ,

.7 T .

T T . T , T E, S, D , k S . T Y 7 B(C , B) z IK, k S B , z

M j x. T , , , x , q q .

D z , - , W , , M Akj B, Rz

7 S. Z, N R M E, PRv, V. , N. , S , . 96-4.
http://mashallahnews.com/?p=5938.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/20/two-tunisian-artists-to-face-trial-for-drawing-graffiti.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/20/two-tunisian-artists-to-face-trial-for-drawing-graffiti.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/20/two-tunisian-artists-to-face-trial-for-drawing-graffiti.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/01/13/graffiti-war-on-syrian-walls.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/01/13/graffiti-war-on-syrian-walls.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/01/13/graffiti-war-on-syrian-walls.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/01/13/graffiti-war-on-syrian-walls.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/20/two-tunisian-artists-to-face-trial-for-drawing-graffiti.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/20/two-tunisian-artists-to-face-trial-for-drawing-graffiti.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/20/two-tunisian-artists-to-face-trial-for-drawing-graffiti.http://mashallahnews.com/?p=5938.


52/60


Z B P S.8 O x T U W A W9 ,

8 R D, R J, K L Z

, S S. M. K, I M M, FW M N S, Fs R-, N 5, , ://.//j-k/-------/48.

9 Fk : ://.k./..

Figure 7 Defend yourself like Tunisians do

Figure 9 Defend yourself like Greeks do

Figure 8 Defend yourself like Palestinians do

Source: Defend yourself like Tunisians do, by the Syrianartist group The Syrian people know their way, https://

secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796749117/in/

photostream

Source: Defend yourself like Greeks do, by the Syrian ar tist

group The Syrian people know their way, https://secure.flickr.

com/photos/3aref/6796733945/in/photostream

Source: Defend yourself like Palestinians do, by the

Syrian artist group The Syrian people know their way,https://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796732235/in/

photostream

.T Fk , z , k k ,k O. T SEMC, P, S A,E, S, k ,

z .

I , A S z, x . T A L jk.

Web-Enabled Transfers Challenge

Old Media Outlets

C - z , . I

I. S, A W V U G P,W Nv, F , , ://-.///-----.
http://forusa.org/blogs/mohja-kahf/middle-madness-four-women-march-for-nonviolence-syria/11408.http://forusa.org/blogs/mohja-kahf/middle-madness-four-women-march-for-nonviolence-syria/11408.http://forusa.org/blogs/mohja-kahf/middle-madness-four-women-march-for-nonviolence-syria/11408.https://www.facebook.com/intifadat.almar2a.https://www.facebook.com/intifadat.almar2a.https://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796749117/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796749117/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796749117/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796733945/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796733945/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796732235/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796732235/in/photostreamhttp://wagingnonviolence.org/2013/02/arab-womens-virtual-uprising-goes-physical.http://wagingnonviolence.org/2013/02/arab-womens-virtual-uprising-goes-physical.http://wagingnonviolence.org/2013/02/arab-womens-virtual-uprising-goes-physical.http://wagingnonviolence.org/2013/02/arab-womens-virtual-uprising-goes-physical.https://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796732235/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796732235/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796733945/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796733945/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796749117/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796749117/in/photostreamhttps://secure.flickr.com/photos/3aref/6796749117/in/photostreamhttps://www.facebook.com/intifadat.almar2a.https://www.facebook.com/intifadat.almar2a.http://forusa.org/blogs/mohja-kahf/middle-madness-four-women-march-for-nonviolence-syria/11408.http://forusa.org/blogs/mohja-kahf/middle-madness-four-women-march-for-nonviolence-syria/11408.http://forusa.org/blogs/mohja-kahf/middle-madness-four-women-march-for-nonviolence-syria/11408.


53/60


G, SEMC k k k . T , z , .

D z, , . B , z k x I . O k T N.,4 Fk k W KS,5 , j. N , z,

M.Zk, Cv Sy Dz A WA R 2007, C, I K C D- S, 7, . 5.

J. Kz, C S C P A W, T Hv I J PssPs, V. 4 N. , J 999, . 87-9, ://.j./j/__j___/

4/4.kz..

S P. C, C S, Y I, I , C , -.

4 N. - A 4 k T J .

5 T W K S Fk E K S. S J. P, M B W O Fk P T G I O, T N YTs, F 5, , ://..///6///6..

x k .

A A S S MR, .6 I , Fk 9 SEMC, 5 . Y 5 9 k 7. T, 7 A, . T - , Y, 67

, k SEMC.

W , z j . W j , , z

I .7

T z . E 4

6 F x ,

, , F S R M, S M A W: I S C C?,

A S M R, N. 4, J , ://..///D.x?PID=6.

7 N. J, W A M B: S M, M W, A R, F I,V. 4, N. , M , . 8-9, ://x../.9/48.
https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/harvard_international_journal_of_press_politics/v004/4.3khazen.html.https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/harvard_international_journal_of_press_politics/v004/4.3khazen.html.https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/harvard_international_journal_of_press_politics/v004/4.3khazen.html.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06face.html.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06face.html.http://www.dsg.ae/en/publication/Description.aspx?PubID=306.http://www.dsg.ae/en/publication/Description.aspx?PubID=306.http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fi4010083.http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fi4010083.http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fi4010083.http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fi4010083.http://www.dsg.ae/en/publication/Description.aspx?PubID=306.http://www.dsg.ae/en/publication/Description.aspx?PubID=306.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06face.html.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06face.html.https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/harvard_international_journal_of_press_politics/v004/4.3khazen.html.https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/harvard_international_journal_of_press_politics/v004/4.3khazen.html.https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/harvard_international_journal_of_press_politics/v004/4.3khazen.html.


54/60


F A N A (FANA), B D , . FANA, A I , k k .A j B Wk:

T k ( ) x ( ) . S , , k , .8

I x z, z x .

A , k . I , . S SEMC E I R B (RSF) , k , , .9 H,

8 B. Wk, A M D M B, BWs , D 7, , ://.-.///..

9 R B, I Es R2012, M , , ://../IMG//-_..

I. Mk J ,4 A S,4 z z .I , A I k Mk.4

T E E I , , S 4 RSF, C P J .44 T k - , E T, , S.

Communication Dynamics and the Evolution

of Regional (Cyber) Activism

O , z j

4 J. Gz J. Mk, E L F O S I, T N Y Ts, F 5, , ://..///6//6..

4 H. A, S P I T I Dk,G Vs, N 9, , ://.///9/-----k.

4 D U Dy I .C E H Mk E E :

://../.?=P%%Mk.

4 R B, Ns vs 2012,D 9, , ://../-j-z--9--,486..

44 C P J, 10 Ms Cs C-s, M , , ://j.///5/---..
http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2012/blog1212b.htm.http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2012/blog1212b.htm.http://en.rsf.org/IMG/pdf/rapport-internet2012_ang.pdf.http://en.rsf.org/IMG/pdf/rapport-internet2012_ang.pdf.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/technology/16internet.html.http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/technology/16internet.html.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/29/syria-plunged-into-total-info-darkness.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/29/syria-plunged-into-total-info-darkness.http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Pull%20a%20Mubarak.http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Pull%20a%20Mubarak.http://en.rsf.org/2012-journalists-netizens-decimated-19-12-2012,43806.html.http://en.rsf.org/2012-journalists-netizens-decimated-19-12-2012,43806.html.http://cpj.org/reports/2012/05/10-most-censored-countries.php.http://cpj.org/reports/2012/05/10-most-censored-countries.php.http://cpj.org/reports/2012/05/10-most-censored-countries.php.http://cpj.org/reports/2012/05/10-most-censored-countries.php.http://en.rsf.org/2012-journalists-netizens-decimated-19-12-2012,43806.html.http://en.rsf.org/2012-journalists-netizens-decimated-19-12-2012,43806.html.http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Pull%20a%20Mubarak.http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Pull%20a%20Mubarak.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/29/syria-plunged-into-total-info-darkness.http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/11/29/syria-plunged-i

regional dynamics in the mediterranean and prospects for transatlantic cooperation

Documents