Regional and Global Modelling

AMMA - Toulouse 2006

K Cook, F Hourdin, C. Mari, PM Ruti

• What observations are needed forimprovement?

• Where is the model physics lacking ?• How can the SOP observations be most

effectively used?• How can we make sure that this expensive

and hard-won data are used to improveour fundamental understanding of the WAM system?

• State of the art for modellingWAM system

• What modelling activity is planned for AMMA

• Chemical modelling session

• How can the SOP observations be mosteffectively used?

IPCC models

Observed summertime precipitation climatology

CRU 1961-1990 Climatology (New et al. 1999)

8 of the 18 models do not capture the West African monsoon:

these models donot bring the precipitationmaximum ontothe continent

What about Regional Climate Models

Ocean ResGISS

Relatives

ATMO RES hor-vertMIROC

Relatives

Main issues from the discussion

• Modelling intercomparison for improving the understanding of the WAM system

• Mean, variance, PDF• Diagnostics for relationship between model’s bias and

processes• AMIP runs to be compared• RegCM as tools for sensitivity analysis

• State of the art for modelling WAM system

• What modelling activity is plannedfor AMMA

• Chemical modelling session

• How can the SOP observations be most effectively used?

The AMMA Model Intercomparison ProjectAMMA-MIP

Goals :- Evaluate global and regional climate models as for the representation ofthe west African monsoon (SEASONAL CYCLE – AEJ – AEW - CONVECTION)- Evaluate improvements coming from AMMA.- Make available outputs of some reference simulations to the AMMA community.

Do not duplicate AMIP or other programs.- more focussed- lighter- aimed to host different types of models.

2 parts :- AMMA-croos is dedicated to the study of the mean latitudinal structure ofthe monsoon. It is motivated by the relative “zonallity” of the WAM. The cros- section consists in zonal averages of model outputs (10E-10W).- AMMA-maps is dedicated to the study of synoptic dynamics (waves, onset, breaks, ...) and stationnary structures (orography, ocean/coninent, ...). 2D maps provided at a daily frequency.

2 years :2000 (Jet 200, dry) and 2003 (more recent and wetter). Extension to 2005 and 2006.

Data availableat

http://amma-mip.lmd.jussieu.frandhttp://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/amma-moana/transect

Contributions- 4 models did contribute (ARPEGE/CNRM, ECHAM4/ENEA, UCLA/UCM, LMDZ/IPSL)Among which- 2 models with ensemble simulations (6 and 9 members).- 1 model with 2 different vertical resolution- 1 model with 2 convection schemes.

- Outputs from regional climate models and chemistry transport models expected

Please contact Ionela.Musat@lmd.jussieu.frCoordination : Frédéric Hourdin (LMD/IPSL), Françoise Guichard(CNRM), Paolo Ruti (ENEA)Work done by : Ionela Musat (LMD/IPSL), Florence Favot (CNRM)

19 levels 42 levels

Emanuel convection Tiedtke

NCEP CMAP GPCP

West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation

(WAMME)

Yongkang Xue, Bill Lau, Kerry Cook

Use GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) to study the role of land-ocean-atmosphere interaction, SST variability, land-use and water-use change, vegetation dynamics, as well as aerosol, particularly dust, on WAM development.

(1) evaluate the performance of current GCMs

(2) identify common discrepancies

(3) to conduct sensitivity experiments to isolate important key physical processes on interannual and decadal time scales

(4) to demonstrate the utility and synergy of CEOP and AMMA field data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement.

First activity:

Each GCM/RCM modeling group will carry out simulations for 4 selected years’ monsoon season (from April through October)

2000, 2003, 2004, and 2005, (each year with four initial conditions).The one dry year (2000) and one wet year (2003) coincide with AMMA’s GCM model comparison plans. The summers of 2004 and 2005 have AMMA observations.

GCMs: External forcing from the C20C database.

RCMs: External forcing from the C20C database; lateral boundary conditionsFrom reanalysis, UK Meto, NCEP GCM

Two types of simulation are requested:(1) Use the model “as is”(2) Adjust the model to improve the simulation of the WAM

WAMME working group members

Institution Contact Person Models

Cornell University Kerry Cook, Ned Vizy MM5, WRF

GISS, NASA Len Druyan , Mat Fulakeza

Regional, GCM

GSFC, NASA William Lau NASA AGCM

IRI, Columbian University

Sylwia Trzaska IRI GCM

MRI, Japan Akio Kitoh GCM (MRI-CGCM2.3),AGCM (MRI/JMA)

NCAR Benjamin Lamptey NCAR GCM

NCEP Wassila Thiaw NCEP GCM

UCLA Yongkang Xue AGCMs, Eta

U.K. Met. Hadley Center Dave Rowell U.K. Met. GCM

Collaborators or coordinators:

AMMA: Chris Thorncroft, Paolo Ruti, Frederic Hourdin, Serge Janicot, Aaron Boone, Francoise Guichard

Modelling overview …

• 16 presentations• Dynamical-Chemical-

coupled models // R&G models

Case Stud.

Clim

RM 3 7

GM 3

• State of the art for modelling WAM system

• What modelling activity is planned for AMMA

• Chemical modelling session

• How can the SOP observations be mosteffectively used?

• Transport Models

• Chemical Aerosols models

• Step1 cross-section evaluation

• Step2 Regional Modelling

Preliminary Model Results

CO

15 August

Diurnal cycle- Development of a new set of parametrisations for Boundary Layer/Convection/Clouds

Clouds- Vertical distribution. Radiances simulations ... New satelites.

Water transport and isotopes- Large scale transport.

Dry intrusions.- Use of isotopes for model

validation and interpretation of water budgets.

Chemistry :- Impact of the WAM over

the global chemistry. Validation/MOZAIC.

- Role of convection and large scale transport.

Relative humidity (color) and convective heating (K/day, contours)

Tiedtke scheme Emanuel scheme

CO conentration (ppbv, color, from INCA) and idealized tracer

• State of the art for modelling WAM system

• What modelling activity is planned for AMMA

• Chemical modelling session

• How can the SOP observations bemost effectively used?

Few examples direct transect evaluation

Few examples stratification by parameters

Interaction issues better results for less work

Climate group

Case studies group

Forecast group

How to analyse obsdata for processstudies …

WP41 ? Large scale / synoptic

Hall

WP41 ? Heat low Parker

WP41 ? Low level atm. Guichard

Convection and atm. Dyn.Climate Modeling

Forecasting..

Chem/Aer

Interaction issues better results for less work

AMMA-MIP WAMME

PI (WP412) Seasonalcycle

PI

PI (WP413) AEROSOLS PI

PI (WP11) SST PI

WAMMEAMMA-MIP

Interaction issues less work !! … more resultshttp://amma-mip.lmd.jussieu.fr/Welcome.html