regent law, may 2013
DESCRIPTION
This presentation was given at the Regent Law Summit in Norfolk, Virginia on May 17, 2013. It summarizes the changes occurring in the legal profession from the end of World War II to the present. It also reviews trend data and entry of nonlawyer entrepreneurs in the legal industry. The presentation ends with a discussion of the implications for legal education.TRANSCRIPT
Overview of the Legal Marketin the Year 2013
Regent Law SummitMay 17, 2013
William D. HendersonIndiana University Maurer School of Law
Agenda
1. Overview of market2. Q&A3. Issues facing practicing bar
1. Overview
Legal Profession
Circa 1905, 1945, 1985
Legal Services Industry
Legal Industry
Legal Profession
Circa 2012
Asia, Automation, Abundance
Private PracticeCirca 1948
• 163,000 Lawyers
• 45.0% w/ college degrees; 74.5% w/ law degrees
• 1.64 lawyers per firm
• 1.9 % lawyers in firms of 9+ partners
Source: Blaustein, “The 1949 Lawyer Count,” 50 ABA J 370 (1950)
Solos, 61%
Partners, 24%
As-so-ciates
4%Gov’t,
In-House 11%
Lawyers by Role
20th Century
Supply Demand
Sophisticated legal needs
Organizational lawyers
Heinz-Laumann “Two-Hemisphere” Theory
Growth driven by business demand
Corporate Litigation
Office Practice for
Corps
Office Practice for
Persons
Personal Litigation
Growth driven by
Population
1975
Heinz-Laumann “Two-Hemisphere” Theory
Growth driven by business demand
Corporate Litigation
Office Practice for
Corps
Office Practice for
Persons
Personal Litigation
Growth driven by
Population
1995
US Lawyer Population(1951-2000)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1951 1960 1971 1980 1991 2000
Year
Lawyer Population
US Lawyer Population(1951-2000)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1951 1960 1971 1980 1991 2000
Year
Lawyer Population
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
988,898
1,122,723 1,074,994
Total Law Firm Employment, 1998 to 2010
Total Employment Moving average (Total Employment)
Year
Tota
l Num
ber o
f Em
ploy
ees
Generated by William Henderson (June 2012)
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20110
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Incoming 1L Classes, ABA-Accredited Law Schools1985 to 2011
Incoming 1L Class, All Schools 2-Year Moving Average
Source: ABA Section on Legal Education and Admission to the Bar, Chart generated by William Henderson (July 2012)
15% increase in Law Schools (175 to 201)19% increase in 1L enrollment
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
% of Entry Level Jobs in Private Practice1985 to 2011
% of Entry Level Jobs in Private Practice 2-Year Moving AverageSource: NALP Bulletin, July 2012, charts generated by William Henderson
Outcomes for the Class of 2011
Bar Passage Required, FTLT;
55.2%
JD Advantaged FTLT, 8.1%
Professional FTLT, 3.9%
Other Outcomes; 32.8%
Outcomes By USN Rank
Top 14
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
83.1%
59.9%
53.6%
48.2%
45.1%
10.9%
30.2%
33.3%
37.3%
41.5%
BarPassage FTLT JD Advantaged FTLT Professional FTLT Other Outcomes
Market in 2013
Supply Demand
Sophisticated
legal needsOrganizational
lawyers
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
19981999
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Change in # of Employees since 1998Legal Services Industry
Law Offices vs. All Other Legal Services
Offices of lawyers All other legal services
% G
row
th in
Em
ploy
ees
Since 2004:Law Offices: -47,729 jobsAll Other Legal Services: + 7,696
Generated by William Henderson (June 2012)
Susskind’s Paradigm
Bespoke Standardized Systematized Packaged Commoditized
Needed human capital:• Information technology• Systems engineering• Finance• Marketing• Project Management• Law
Legal Services Industry
Legal Industry
Legal Profession
Circa 2012
Asia, Automation, Abundance
2. Questions
3. Issues facing practicing bar
Law Firms40%
In-House Legal5%
Government20%
Public Interest / Defender
10%
Judiciary15%
Other10%
4. What do we do next?
1. Yellow: Tech and practice management
2. Pink: Externship for practical skills3. Green: Initiative for ethical
formation / character 4. Orange: Marketing and client
development / Market development
Arc Informed by theory and data
Career Arc
Practice Mastery
Time
Arc under Traditional
model
Graduation
“Whether you think you can, or you think you can't--you're right.” Henry Ford.
Skills, Personality,
Drive= Training +
Playing Time+High Performance
High Performing Lawyer Success Formula
Smarts (IQ) +
30
Cognitive Ability
Frequency
Cognitive Ability
Performance
