reec 15 10-16 kleinhenz economic report
TRANSCRIPT
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Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC
2016 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook
Real Estate Educator’s ConferenceOctober 16, 2015
10/15/2015
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U.S. Economy
California Economy
Southern California Economy & Industries
Forecast/Conclusion
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Outline
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
SCIENTIFIC METHOD
“You can observe a lot by watching”
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
STOCK MARKET
“The future ain’t what it used to be”
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
FORECASTING
“It’s déjà vu all over again!”
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
RECESSIONS
“It ain’t over till it’s over”
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Yogi Berra (1925-1915)
Ph.D. Economics (Honorary)
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U.S. Economy
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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GDP Low Trajectory But Accelerating
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
2.7
1.8
-0.3
-2.8
2.5
1.62.2
1.5
2.4 2.42.8
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC
Annual % Change
Kyser Center for Economic Research
GDP 15Q2: +3.9%
10/15/2015
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Key Sectors of Macroeconomy Consumer Sector
Business Sector
Government
International Trade
Other Macro Indicators:
Labor Market
Inflation
Kyser Center for Economic Research
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Incomes Up, Drive Consumer Spending
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Annual % Change Consumer Expenditures
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Total New Vehicle SalesMillions of Vehicles
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20 18.2
200820092011201320142015
Source: BEA10/15/2015
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Equipment Transportation Equipment
Intellectual Property
Structures
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
9.8%
2.0%
5.8% 5.5%
2014 2015 2016
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Annual Percentage Change
Business Investment Spending
Source: IHS, LAEDC
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Source: CBOKyser Center for Economic Research
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays as % of GDP
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Receipts Outlays
10/15/2015
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World Euro Area Japan Latin/South America
Developing Asia
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%2014 2015 2016f
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2015Kyser Center for Economic Research
Global Economic OutlookGDP, constant prices (percent change)
Annual percent growth
10/15/2015
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Jan-9
0
Jan-9
2
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
8
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
8
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
40%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14% U.S.: 5.1%
U.S. In Full Employment Range
Source: US BLS, CA EDD
Unemployment Rate
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Source: US Bureau of Labor StatisticsKyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Nonfarm Job GrowthJa
n-08
Apr
-08
Jul-0
8O
ct-0
8Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr
-14
Jul-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr
-15
Jul-1
5
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600MTM Job Changes Moving average (MTM Job Changes)
MTM changes in thousands, Seasonally Adjusted
10/15/2015
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Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
U.S. Adding Jobs At Steady Pace
Source: US BLS, CA EDDKyser Center for Economic Research
YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted
10/15/2015
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U.S. Consumer Inflation
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0Year-Year % Change in CPI-U
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; forecasts by LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Key Sectors of Macroeconomy Consumer Sector
Business Sector
Government
International Trade
Other Macro Indicators:
Labor Market
Inflation
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Forecast Source: LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
FORECAST: U.S. Slow But Steady
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016fReal GDP - Annual %
Chg. 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8%
Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8%
Unemployment Rate 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.4% 5.0%
Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.6%
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic ResearchKyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Forecast: What to Watch
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Real Household Income Trending Down
Kyser Center for Economic Research
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
40
45
50
55
6057.8 57.4
53.7
Median HH Income in Thousands of 2014 Dollars
Source: Census Bureau
10/15/2015
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Annual % Change in Hourly Wage Annual Inflation Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
First Significant Wage Gains vs. Inflation
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Source: BLS10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Key Interest RatesJa
n-00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Fed Funds Fixed Rate Mort 10-Year T-Bond
Source: Federal Reserve10/15/2015
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Crude Oil Prices 2007-Present
Source: US Energy Information AdministrationKyser Center for Economic Research
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10A
pr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12A
pr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14A
pr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15A
pr-1
5Ju
l-15
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
West TX Intermediate
Dollars/barrel
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Economy
10/15/2015
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Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS, forecasts by LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
California Growth Outpacing U.S.
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
US GDP CA GSPAnnual % Change
10/15/2015
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Jan-9
0
Jan-9
2
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
8
Jan-0
0
Jan-0
2
Jan-0
4
Jan-0
6
Jan-0
8
Jan-1
0
Jan-1
2
Jan-1
40%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14% U.S.: 5.1% CA : 6.1%
CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly
Source: US BLS, CA EDDKyser Center for Economic Research
Unemployment Rate
10/15/2015
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Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
CA Adding Jobs Faster Than U.S.
Source: US BLS, CA EDDKyser Center for Economic Research
YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted
10/15/2015
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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by California Metro Area
BakersfieldVentura
ModestoLA
OaklandSacramento
Stockton MSASan Diego
Riverside-San BernardinoOrange County
Fresno MSASan Francisco
San Jose
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
0.3%0.9%
1.5%1.7%
2.0%2.6%2.6%
3.1%3.1%
3.5%3.6%
4.6%5.4%
Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted
CALIFORNIA – Aug 2015: +470,000 +3.0% YTY
10/15/2015
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Forecast Source: LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
California Economic Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Nonfarm Jobs - annual % chg. 2.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.1%
Unemployment Rate 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.4% 5.8%
Personal Income - annual % chg. 7.1% 2.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9%
Total Taxable Sales - % chg. 7.3% 5.1% 6.1% 4.5% 6.4%
Housing Permits - thousands of units
57.5 82.3 85.8 104.6 132.3
10/15/2015
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Southern California Economy
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
Local Unemployment Rates
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%LA - 7.0% OC - 4.5% IE - 6.8%Aug 2015
10/15/2015
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Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles
Manufacturing Administrative & Support & Waste Services
Educational Services Financial Activities
Information Retail Trade Government
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities
Wholesale Trade Leisure & Hospitality
Health Care & Social Assistance Construction
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
-1.3%-0.8%-0.7%
0.3%0.8%
1.2%1.4%
2.3%2.8%
3.5%3.5%3.7%
5.0%
YTY % change in nonfarm employment by industry, not seasonally adjusted
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
Aug 2015: +76,300 jobs, +1.8% YTY; u-rate: 7.0%
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by IndustryOrange County
Information Finance & Insurance
Government Retail Trade
Administrative & Support & Waste Services Wholesale Trade
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods Leisure & Hospitality
Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Transportation & Warehousing Construction
Educational Services
-4% 0% 4% 8% 12%
-0.8%0.4%
0.8%1.1%1.3%
1.8%2.1%
3.0%3.6%
4.3%4.3%4.6%
6.5%8.9%
10.5%
YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry
Aug 2015 YTY: +48,500, +3.2%; u-rate: 4.5%
10/15/2015
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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by IndustryRiverside – San Bernardino
InformationRetail Trade
Health Care & Social AssistanceGovernment
Durable GoodsConstruction
Finance & InsuranceReal Estate & Rental & Leasing
Nondurable GoodsLeisure & Hospitality
Transportation & WarehousingWholesale Trade
Educational ServicesProfessional, Scientific & Technical ServicesAdministrative & Support & Waste Services
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
0.0%0.4%0.5%
2.2%3.8%3.9%4.1%4.3%
4.9%5.1%
5.6%6.4%6.6%
9.3%10.4%
Aug 2015 YTY: +44,500, +3.5%; u-rate: 6.8%
YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry
10/15/2015
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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by IndustryVentura County
Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality
Educational & Health Services Financial Activities
Construction Wholesale Trade
Government Retail Trade
Administrative & Support & Waste Services Information
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
-3.2%-2.8%
-1.2%0.5%0.7%
1.5%1.7%1.8%
3.4%3.6%
4.8%12.6%
Aug 2015 Total: +2,500, +0.9%; u-rate: 5.8%
YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry
10/15/2015
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Major Industries in Southern California
TRADED INDUSTRIES(Generate New Income)
• International Trade• Entertainment• Business Services• Aerospace• Fashion & Apparel• Tourism• Knowledge Creation
LOCAL INDUSTRIES(Circulate Income)
• Retail Sales• Leisure & Hospitality• Health Care/Social Assistance• Personal Services• Nonprofit Sector
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
'14Y
TD
'15Y
TD
15.8 15.714.3
11.8
14.1 14 14.1 14.6 15.2
9.986614110.09463175
Millions of TEUs
Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports
Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
Aug 2015 YTD: +1.1%
Year-to- Date
10/15/2015
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment
Thousands Aug. 2015 YTY: +4.1% YTD: +5.1%
10/15/2015
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Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment in Los Angeles County
Sources: CA EDD. LMID
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Thousands
Kyser Center for Economic Research
YTD: +0.7%
10/15/2015
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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
SoCal Manufacturing Employment20
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000Durable Goods Nondurable Goods
Aug. 2015 YTD % Chg.
Durable: +0.8%Nondurable: +0.2%
10/15/2015
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Manufacturing Trends
Kyser Center for Economic Research
UP >1% NO/LITTLE CHANGE DOWN >1%
Furniture Fabricated Metal Prod Primary Metal Mfg
Chemicals Food Machinery
Plastics Apparel Electronic Products
Pharmaceuticals Petroleum Products Aerospace
Textiles
10/15/2015
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Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS EconomicsKyser Center for Economic Research
Value of Manufacturing Output – California
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0255075
100125150175200225250275 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods
Billions of Inflation Adjusted Dollars (2009 Base Year)
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Professional & Business Services Employment
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura
Thousands
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
Aug. 2015 YTY: +2.8% YTD: +3.4%
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Education & Health Care Employment
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600 Los Angeles OrangeInland Empire San DiegoVentura
ThousandsAug. 2015 YTY: +3.1% YTD: +3.6%
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Emerging Industries• Venture Capital: $3.1 B to LA/OC in 2015H1
– Software, IT Services– Medical Devices– Media & Entertainment– Industrial/Energy
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
New Industry Cluster?
Culinary & Beverage Arts
Los Angeles County• 54 Craft Breweries•1,334 jobs•$66 million in direct economic impact
California•$6.5 billion impact, 2014• 18% increase over 2013
10/15/2015
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Housing & Residential Construction
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dec-06Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Sep-13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14May-14Jun-14Jul-14Aug-14Sep-14Oct-14Nov-14Dec-14Jan-15Feb-15Mar-15Apr-15May-15Jun-15Jul-150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700Home Sales (Left Axis) Median Home Price (Right Axis)
Home Sales & Median Price California
Existing, single-family homesSales, Thousands, SAAR Price, Thousands
Source: California Association of Realtors10/15/2015
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Source: California Association of REALTORS Kyser Center for Economic Research
Median Prices Existing Single-Family Homes
County Aug-14 Aug-15YTY % Change
Los Angeles $469,000 $502,000 7.0%
Orange County $585,000 $610,000 4.3%
San Bernardino $240,000 $270,000 12.5%
Riverside County $299,000 $315,000 5.4%
Ventura $490,000 $500,000 2.0%
San Diego $445,000 $465,000 4.5%
California $481,240 $493,420 2.5%
10/15/2015
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Source: California Association of Realtors Kyser Center for Economic Research
Unsold Inventory (Months)Existing Single Family Homes
County Aug.'14 Aug.'15Los Angeles 4.0 3.7
Orange 4.0 3.9
Riverside 4.8 4.3
San Bernardino 5.0 4.3
San Diego 4.5 3.5
Ventura 4.1 3.4
California 4.0 3.6
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Housing Drivers & Constraints
• Drivers:– Job and income growth– Net increases in wealth– Demographics– Expected increases in mortgage rates
• Constraints– Down payment sources– Rising mortgage rates– Strict underwriting requirements
Kyser Center for Economic Research
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Key Interest RatesJa
n-00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Fed Funds Fixed Rate Mort 10-Year T-Bond
Source: Federal Reserve10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Apartment Rents – Southern California05
Q1
05Q
3
06Q
1
06Q
3
07Q
1
07Q
3
08Q
1
08Q
3
09Q
1
09Q
3
10Q
1
10Q
3
11Q
1
11Q
3
12Q
1
12Q
3
13Q
1
13Q
3
14Q
1
14Q
3
15Q
1
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
LA OC RV SB VN
Source: CA Real Estate Research Council10/15/2015
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Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County
Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f 16f0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
11.7 11.9 10.1 7.53.5 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.9 6.8
15.2 13.7 16.3
12.8
10.2
3.5 5.08.0 8.0
12.814.3
19.4
22.9
Multi-FamilySingle-Family
Permits issued, thousands
10/15/2015
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Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County
Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f 16f0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
4.4 4.1 3.72.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 3.9 5.0
4.93.1 4.6
4.9
1.9 0.8 1.52.9
4.0
6.2 7.08.8
10.2
Multi-FamilySingle-FamilyPermits issued, thousands
10/15/2015
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Residential Building Permits Issued in the Inland Empire
Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f '16f0
10
20
30
40
50
60
43.5 45.333.3
16.05.8 4.9 5.2 3.7 4.7 6.1 6.9 8.1 11.0
9.2 5.5
5.8
4.5
3.3 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.32.7 3.2 2.7 3.7
Multi-FamilySingle-Family
Permits issued, thousands
10/15/2015
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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information DivisionKyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Construction Employment
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura
150 thousand jobs
Thousands
Aug. 2015 YTY: +5.5% YTD: +6.0%
10/15/2015
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2016 SouthernCaliforniaForecast
Kyser Center for Economic Research
10/15/2015
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Forecast Source: LAEDCKyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Economic Forecast 2016
Los Angeles
Orange County
Inland Empire
Ventura County
San Diego
Nonfarm Jobs - annual % chg.
1.8% 2.7% 3.3% 1.5% 2.5%
Unemployment Rate 6.3% 3.4% 5.8% 5.1% 4.3%
Personal Income - annual % chg.
4.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.9%
Total Taxable Sales - annual % chg.
6.9% 6.9% 6.8% 4.8% 6.0%
Housing Permits - annual % chg.
22.2% 19.7% 36.1% 25.0% 22.9%
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Ran
k
Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura
1 Construction Construction Trans & Utilities Prof, Sci, Tech
2 Trans & Utilities Health Care Admin & Supp Construction
3 Admin & Supp Real Estate Prof, Sci, Tech Mgmt of Enterpr.
4 Prof, Sci, Tech Education Construction Trans & Utilities
5 Education Prof, Sci, Tech Wholesale Trade Real Estate
2016 Top Five Industries by Percentage Gains in Employment
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
LA County Nonfarm Employment
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.54.23 4.19
3.95 3.89 3.914.01
4.13 4.23 4.30
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
Millions of Nonfarm Jobs
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
LA County Nonfarm Employment
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.54.18
3.74
4.19
3.89
4.30
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
Millions of Nonfarm Jobs
12 Years440K Lost 300K Lost
10/15/2015
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Conclusion
• Continued Economic Growth: US, CA, & So Cal
• Income Gains and Growth in Spending
• California Outpacing US
• Job Gains in Most Local Industries
• Real Estate/Construction Outlook Good
• Challenge: Long-Term Job Picture in LA
10/15/2015
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10/15/2015