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Reducing CO 2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed here are my own and are not the responsibility of the Sloan Foundation or MIT

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Page 1: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power 

SectorPaul L. Joskow

Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT

The views expressed here are my own and are not the responsibility of the Sloan Foundation or MIT

Page 2: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 3: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 4: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 5: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

2005

Page 6: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 7: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 8: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

U.S. CO2 Emissions Electricity Generation

Page 9: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

70%

28%

1%1%

CO2 EMISSION FROM ELECTRICITY 2015

COAL

NATURAL GAS

PETROLEUM

OTHER

COALNATURAL GAS

Petroleum

Based on EIA Data 2016

Page 10: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

Source: EIA with lines drawn in

Page 11: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN GERMANY1990‐2015

Source:  Clean Energy Wire, March 17, 2016, Figure 2

Page 12: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 13: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 14: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 15: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 16: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 17: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

Source: EIA

Page 18: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 19: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 20: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 21: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 22: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 23: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

1,600.00EIA Renewable Electricity 2015‐2040

    Conventional Hydroelectric Power     Geothermal

    Municipal Waste     Wood and Other Biomass

    Solar 5/     Wind

Total Renewable Electricity

TOTAL RENEWABLES

WIND

CONVENTIAL HYDRO

SOLARWood, Waste, Geothermal, Other

Data from EIA 2016

Page 24: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 25: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 26: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

 ‐

 50,000

 100,000

 150,000

 200,000

 250,000

 300,000

 350,000

1/1/2016 2/1/2016 3/1/2016 4/1/2016 5/1/2016 6/1/2016 7/1/2016 8/1/2016

ERCOT WIND GENERATION1/1/16‐8/31/16

Data from PlattsMW Daily

Page 27: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

1/1/2016 2/1/2016 3/1/2016 4/1/2016 5/1/2016 6/1/2016 7/1/2016 8/1/2016

ERCOT WIND SHARE OF SUPPLY1/1/16‐8/31/16

Data from PlattsMW Daily

Page 28: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 29: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

LBNL, Electricity Policy and Markets Lab Annual Solar Reports 2016

Page 30: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 31: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Utility Scale Solar 2015, Figure 3

Page 32: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

 ‐

 10,000

 20,000

 30,000

 40,000

 50,000

 60,000

 70,000

 80,000

1/1/2016 2/1/2016 3/1/2016 4/1/2016 5/1/2016 6/1/2016 7/1/2016 8/1/2016

MWh

Axis Title

CALIFORNIA SOLAR PV (CAISO)1/1/16‐8/31/16

Data from PlattsMW Daily

Page 33: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

Source: Unknown UK

Page 34: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

Source: Unknown UK

Page 35: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 36: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 37: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 38: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

From Bornstein and Davis July 2015

Page 39: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed
Page 40: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nuclear vs. Wind + Solar 2014‐2040Billion KWh

nuclear wind + Solar

NUCLEAR

WIND + SOLAR

Data from EIA 2016 Long‐term Outlook

Page 41: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

M. Morey and L. Kirsch, Christensen Associates, February 2016

Page 42: Reducing CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power …...Reducing CO2Emissions in the U.S. Electric Power Sector Paul L. Joskow Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and MIT The views expressed

M. Morey and L. Kirsch, Christensen Associates, February 2016