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Recent Trends for Petroleum, Electricity & Renewables

Western States Coordination MeetingWebEx

March 23, 2017

Gordon SchrempEnergy Assessments DivisionCalifornia Energy [email protected]

Crude Oil

3/23/2017 2

Global Demand Growth Outlook

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) – Oil Market Report – February 10, 2017

3/23/2017 3

2017 outlook 97.97 MMB/D vs. 96.56 MMB/D in 2016 (up 1.46%).

Latin America

North America

Africa

EuropeFSU

Asia

Middle East

1,210990 910

60 30 160

‐70 ‐120

30

230 120 140

2015 vs. 2014 2,0102016 vs. 2015 1,5702017 vs. 2016 1,410

Thous. Bbls/Day

390

10 20

‐20

170 120

240 29050

93.894.5

96.0 95.7 95.495.997.2

97.797.0 97.4

98.5 98.9

83.985.2

86.4 86.1 85.5

88.389.1

90.691.9

93.0

95.0

96.698.0

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1Q 2015

2Q 2015

3Q 2015

4Q 2015

1Q 2016

2Q 2016

3Q 2016

4Q 2016

1Q 2017

2Q 2017

3Q 2017

4Q 2017

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Millions of B

arrels Per Day

Quarterly Oil Demand ‐WorldGlobal Demand Forecast – Rising

Source: IEA – Oil Market Report – Feb. 10, 2017

3/23/2017 4

23.8 23.8

24.4

23.9 23.8 23.7

24.4

23.923.8

23.9

24.3

24.0

25.5 25.4 25.5

24.2

23.3

23.523.3

23.0

23.423.6

24.0 24.0 24.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

1Q 2015

2Q 2015

3Q 2015

4Q 2015

1Q 2016

2Q 2016

3Q 2016

4Q 2016

1Q 2017

2Q 2017

3Q 2017

4Q 2017

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Millions of B

arrels Per Day

Quarterly Oil Demand ‐ North America

United States 19.65

NA Demand Forecast – Steady


3/23/2017 5

‐0.29‐0.09

‐0.80

‐1.08

0.14

0.98

1.00

1.381.46

2.05 1.23 1.72 1.26

0.09

‐0.15

0.50

‐0.84

‐0.98

‐1.5

‐1.0

‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

1Q 2013

2Q 2013

3Q 2013

4Q 2013

1Q 2014

2Q 2014

3Q 2014

4Q 2014

1Q 2015

2Q 2015

3Q 2015

4Q 2015

1Q 2016

2Q 2016

3Q 2016

4Q 2016

1Q 2017

2Q 2017

Millions of B

arrels Per Day

SupplyDemandSupply Imbalance

3/23/2017 6

Global Crude Supply ImbalanceShift to deficit for 1H 2017.


1,351

1,030

5,918

‐441

495

‐595

1,178

‐579

875

310

‐518

1,603

218

‐384 ‐90

628

‐1,388‐590

185460

‐181

‐2,000

‐1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Saud

i Arabia

Russian Fede

ratio

n US

Iran

China

Vene

zuela

Canada

Mexico

United Arab

Emira

tes

Kuwait

Norway

Iraq

Nigeria

Algeria

Angola

Brazil

Libya

United Kingdo

m

Kazakhstan

Qatar

Indo

nesia

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per D

ay

Sources: 2016 BP Statistical Review and Energy Commission Analysis

Global Crude Oil Production Change2015 vs. 2008

3/23/2017 7

U.S. increase about 1.7 times greater than the other top 20 countries combined – 5,918 vs. 3,567 thousands of barrels per day.

3.54

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

2003

May‐04

Nov‐04

May‐05

Nov‐05

May‐06

Nov‐06

May‐07

Nov‐07

May‐08

Nov‐08

May‐09

Nov‐09

May‐10

Nov‐10

May‐11

Nov‐11

May‐12

Nov‐12

May‐13

Nov‐13

May‐14

Nov‐14

May‐15

Nov‐15

May‐16

Nov‐16

Millions of B

arrels Per Day

Source: IEA Oil Market Reports.

Spare OPEC Capacity Jumps – Jan. ’17

3/23/2017 8

OPEC production cuts enable increase of spare capacity.

Source: Bloomberg.

Relative Contribution & Compliance Vary

• Saudi Arabia helping to push over‐compliance

• Russia severe under‐compliance

• Nearly all others fully complying

• January “target” of 1.076 MM b/d equates to 1.11 percent of January 2017 estimated global demand for crude oil

3/23/2017 9

10.89%

0.76%

3.65%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1989

1995

Jan‐00

Jul‐00

Jan‐01

Jul‐01

Jan‐02

Jul‐02

Jan‐03

Jul‐03

Jan‐04

Jul‐04

Jan‐05

Jul‐05

Jan‐06

Jul‐06

Jan‐07

Jul‐07

Jan‐08

Jul‐08

Jan‐09

Jul‐09

Jan‐10

Jul‐10

Jan‐11

Jul‐11

Jan‐12

Jul‐12

Jan‐13

Jul‐13

Jan‐14

Jul‐14

Jan‐15

Jul‐15

Jan‐16

Jul‐16

Jan‐17

Percen

tage of W

orld Oil Dem

and

Source: IEA Oil Market Reports.

Spare OPEC Capacity Climbs – Jan. ‘17

3/23/2017 10

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2/22/2016

3/7/2016

3/21/2016

4/4/2016

4/18/2016

5/2/2016

5/16/2016

5/30/2016

6/13/2016

6/27/2016

7/11/2016

7/25/2016

8/8/2016

8/22/2016

9/5/2016

9/19/2016

10/3/2016

10/17/2016

10/31/2016

11/14/2016

11/28/2016

12/12/2016

12/26/2016

1/9/2017

1/23/2017

2/6/2017

2/20/2017

3/6/2017

3/20/2017

Dollars Per Barrel

Alaska North Slope Brent North Sea

West Texas Intermediate San Joaquin Valley

Source: Oil Price Information Service

Crude Oil Prices – West Coast, Brent & WTI

3/23/2017 11

Prices thru 3/21/17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Dollars Per Barrel

2012 2013 2014

2015 2016 2017

22.7 percent higher than same time last year.

Daily Brent Crude Oil Prices (2012 – 3/21/17)

Source: Energy Information Administration & OPIS

3/23/2017 12

Y-T-D price has averaged $54.97, last year $34.72

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan‐11

Apr‐11

Jul‐1

1

Oct‐11

Jan‐12

Apr‐12

Jul‐1

2

Oct‐12

Jan‐13

Apr‐13

Jul‐1

3

Oct‐13

Jan‐14

Apr‐14

Jul‐1

4

Oct‐14

Jan‐15

Apr‐15

Jul‐1

5

Oct‐15

Jan‐16

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Dollars Per Barrel

Brent‐WTI Differential (2011 – 3/21/17)

Sources: EIA and IEA

3/23/2017 13

Year-to-date differential average of $2.74Previous Y-T-D $1.83 - Tuesday $3.62

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

4/9/04

11/9/04

6/9/05

1/9/06

8/9/06

3/9/07

10/9/07

5/9/08

12/9/08

7/9/09

2/9/10

9/9/10

4/9/11

11/9/11

6/9/12

1/9/13

8/9/13

3/9/14

10/9/14

5/9/15

12/9/15

7/9/16

2/9/17

Percen

t of U

.S. Totals

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels

Percent of US Totals

Cushing, OK Inventory Level

Cushing, OK Crude Inventory (4/9/04 – 3/17/17)

Source: Energy Information Administration

3/23/2017

Total U.S. crude inventories at 533.11 million barrels. Cushing share of U.S. rises from 12.46 to 12.75 percent of total.

14

Cushing rises to 67.95 million barrels.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

4/9/04

11/9/04

6/9/05

1/9/06

8/9/06

3/9/07

10/9/07

5/9/08

12/9/08

7/9/09

2/9/10

9/9/10

4/9/11

11/9/11

6/9/12

1/9/13

8/9/13

3/9/14

10/9/14

5/9/15

12/9/15

7/9/16

2/9/17

Percen

t of U

.S. Totals

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels

Percent of US Totals

US Gulf Coast Inventory Level

US Gulf Coast Crude Inventory (4/9/04 – 3/17/17)Source: Energy Information Administration

3/23/2017

US Gulf Coast share of U.S. drops from 52.96 to 51.81 percent of total. Inventory rises to 276.20 million barrels.

15

Crude Oil – Inputs, Imports & Inventory

Higher refinery runs & inventories

3/23/2017 16

• 533.1 million barrels as of March 17, 2017

• 31.6 million barrels more crude oil inventory than same time last year

• Record level of 545.186 million barrels during October 1929

Source: IIR Energy

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jan‐19

81De

c‐1981

Nov

‐198

2Oct‐198

3Sep‐19

84Au

g‐1985

Jul‐1

986

Jun‐1987

May

‐198

8Ap

r‐19

89Mar‐1990

Feb‐19

91Jan‐19

92De

c‐1992

Nov

‐199

3Oct‐199

4Sep‐19

95Au

g‐1996

Jul‐1

997

Jun‐1998

May

‐199

9Ap

r‐20

00Mar‐2001

Feb‐20

02Jan‐20

03De

c‐2003

Nov

‐200

4Oct‐200

5Sep‐20

06Au

g‐2007

Jul‐2

008

Jun‐2009

May

‐201

0Ap

r‐20

11Mar‐2012

Feb‐20

13Jan‐20

14De

c‐2014

Nov

‐201

5Oct‐201

6

Thou

sand

s of Barrels Pe

r Day

US Crude Oil Production Alaska

North Dakota Texas

California + OCS Rest of US

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

8.783million barrels per day


Chart peak of 9.627million barrels per day ‐ Apr. 2015All‐time peak of 10.044million barrels per day ‐Nov. 1970


U.S. Crude Oil Production – Jan. ‘81‐Dec. ‘16

3/23/2017 17

California production drops back below Alaska.

2,056

709853

‐104 ‐121

‐500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Texas North Dakota Rest of U.S. California Alaska

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

Change in Crude Oil ProductionJanuary 2010 vs. December 2016

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. crude oil production has changed from 5.390million barrels per day in January 2010 to 8.783million barrels per day during December 2016

U.S. crude oil production has decreased0.844million barrels per day from the peak in April 2015

3/23/2017 18

986,910

1,103,397

2,142,561

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Jan‐07

May‐07

Sep‐07

Jan‐08

May‐08

Sep‐08

Jan‐09

May‐09

Sep‐09

Jan‐10

May‐10

Sep‐10

Jan‐11

May‐11

Sep‐11

Jan‐12

May‐12

Sep‐12

Jan‐13

May‐13

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

May‐14

Sep‐14

Jan‐15

May‐15

Sep‐15

Jan‐16

May‐16

Sep‐16

Jan‐17

Barrels P

er Day

Bakken Eagle FordPermian

Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report

U.S. Tight Oil Production – Jan. ’07‐Feb. ‘17

3/23/2017 19

Ghawar (Saudi Arabia) – Peak 5.0 MM BPD in 2005, now 4.5 MM BPD Samotlor (Russia) – Peak 3.0 MM BPD in 1980, now 0.84 MM BPD Burgan (Kuwait) – Peak 2.4 MM BPD in 1972, now 1.7 MM BPD Cantarell (Mexico) – Peak 2.1 MM BPD in 2003, now 0.41 MM BPD Rumaila (Iraq) – Peak 1.6 MM BPD in 1980, now 1.3 MM BPD Safaniya (Saudi Arabia) – Peak 1.5 MM BPD in 1990s, now 1.2 MM BPD Kirkuk (Iraq) – Peak 1.2 MM BPD in 1980, now 0.23 MM BPD Daqing (China) – Peak 1.1 MM BPD in 1997, now 0.75 MM BPD

3 U.S. fields - Combined 4.233 MM BPD

1,601

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

7/17/1987

7/17/1988

7/17/1989

7/17/1990

7/17/1991

7/17/1992

7/17/1993

7/17/1994

7/17/1995

7/17/1996

7/17/1997

7/17/1998

7/17/1999

7/17/2000

7/17/2001

7/17/2002

7/17/2003

7/17/2004

7/17/2005

7/17/2006

7/17/2007

7/17/2008

7/17/2009

7/17/2010

7/17/2011

7/17/2012

7/17/2013

7/17/2014

7/17/2015

7/17/2016

631

Low of 316

Oil Rig Deployment Rebounding

3/23/2017 20

Source: Baker Hughes data – through March 17, 2017.

Number of rigs deployed specifically for U.S. oil drilling 60.8 percent lower than the peak level on October 10, 2014Y-T-D up 20.2 percent

315 additional rigs have been deployed since 5/27/16 low point in response to higher crude oil prices – increase of 99.7 percent

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Drille

d Bu

t Uncom

pleted

Wells (D

UCs)

Permian Eagle Ford

Bakken Niobrara

Crude Oil Basins – DUC BacklogSource: Energy Information Administration

3/23/2017

Increasing backlog awaiting hydraulic fracturing.

21

Total rises from 4,425 to 4,515 in February 2017.

Natural Gas & LNG

3/23/2017 22

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Bill

ions

of C

ubic

Fee

t

2017 Low 2012-2016 High 2012-2016

U.S. Working Natural Gas Design Storage Capacity: 4,658 Billion Cubic Feet; Sources: EIA

U.S. NG Storage Weekly Inventory(Current Year through March 10 vs. 5 Year High & Lows)

3/23/2017 23

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Bill

ions

of C

ubic

Fee

t

2016 2017

U.S. NG Storage Weekly Inventory(Current Year through March 10 vs. Previous Year)

Source: EIA weekly working gas in underground inventory.

3/23/2017 24

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Dol

lars

Per

Mill

ion

Btu

s 2012 2013

2014 2015

2016 2017

Henry Hub Natural Gas ‐ Daily Spot PricesSource: Energy Information Administration (EIA) – through March 13, 2017.

3/23/2017 25

Current price 80.9 percent higher than same time last year.

1,606

157

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

7/17/1987

7/17/1988

7/17/1989

7/17/1990

7/17/1991

7/17/1992

7/17/1993

7/17/1994

7/17/1995

7/17/1996

7/17/1997

7/17/1998

7/17/1999

7/17/2000

7/17/2001

7/17/2002

7/17/2003

7/17/2004

7/17/2005

7/17/2006

7/17/2007

7/17/2008

7/17/2009

7/17/2010

7/17/2011

7/17/2012

7/17/2013

7/17/2014

7/17/2015

7/17/2016

Low of 81

NG Rig Deployment Also Rebounding

3/23/2017 26

Source: Baker Hughes data – through March 17, 2017.

Number of rigs deployed specifically for U.S. NG drilling 90.2 percent lower than the peak level on September 12, 2008Y-T-D up 18.9 percent

76 additional rigs have been deployed since 8/26/16 low point in response to higher NG prices – increase of 93.8 percent

‐

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐14

Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐14

Dec‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐15

Jun‐15

Aug‐15

Oct‐15

Dec‐15

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Drille

d Bu

t Uncom

pleted

Wells (D

UCs)

Marcellus Utica Haynesville

Natural Gas Basins – DUC BacklogSource: Energy Information Administration

3/23/2017

Decreasing backlog awaiting hydraulic fracturing.

27

Count rises from 927 to 928 in February 2017.

‐20

0

20

40

60

80

100Billion

s of C

ubic Feet P

er Day

Dry Gas Production

Net Pipeline Imports

Net LNG Imports

Net Withdrawals

‐ 3.7 Percent

+ 2.1 Percent

20162015Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.

LNG Imports

Pipeline Imports

‐ 1,448.2 Percent

+ 148.1 Percent

3/23/2017 28

U.S. NG Supply – Dec. 2016 vs. Last Year

December supply averaged 72.47 Bcf/day – 5.0 percent lower than last year.

Y-T-D supply averaged 74.34 Bcf/day – 3.3 percent lower than last year.

3/23/2017 29

U.S. NG Demand – Dec. 2016 vs. Last Year

December demand averaged 85.83 Bcf/day – 11.4 percent higher than last year.

Y-T-D demand averaged 68.92 Bcf/day – 0.6 percent higher than last year.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Billion

s of C

ubic Feet P

er Day

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Electric Generation

‐ 13.3 Percent

+ 31.8 Percent

20162015

Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.

+ 35.0 Percent

+ 8.2 Percent

85.83 Bcf77.08 Bcf

Daily U.S. NG Demand (All Sectors)

3/23/2017 30

NG demand tracking low end of historical range.

Source: FERC slide derived from Bentek Energy data.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan‐2001

Aug‐2001

Mar‐2002

Oct‐2002

May‐2003

Dec‐2003

Jul‐2

004

Feb‐2005

Sep‐2005

Apr‐2006

Nov

‐2006

Jun‐2007

Jan‐2008

Aug‐2008

Mar‐2009

Oct‐2009

May‐2010

Dec‐2010

Jul‐2

011

Feb‐2012

Sep‐2012

Apr‐2013

Nov

‐2013

Jun‐2014

Jan‐2015

Aug‐2015

Mar‐2016

Oct‐2016

Industrial Electric Power

2nd Order Regression (Industrial) 2nd Order Regression (Electrical)

Monthly U.S. NG Deliveries (Bcf)

Source: U.S. EIA February 2017 Natural Gas Monthly – Data through December 2016.

3/23/2017 31

U.S. NG Consumption – Power Generation

3/23/2017 32


Daily Western NG Demand – Power Gen.

3/23/2017 33


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Jan‐01

Aug‐01

Mar‐02

Oct‐02

May‐03

Dec‐03

Jul‐0

4Feb‐05

Sep‐05

Apr‐06

Nov

‐06

Jun‐07

Jan‐08

Aug‐08

Mar‐09

Oct‐09

May‐10

Dec‐10

Jul‐1

1Feb‐12

Sep‐12

Apr‐13

Nov

‐13

Jun‐14

Jan‐15

Aug‐15

Mar‐16

Oct‐16

Thou

sand

s of M

egaw

atthou

rs Per Day

Coal Natural Gas

Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser ‐ Data through December 2016

U.S. Net Generation – Coal vs. Natural Gas

3/23/2017 34

Coal use eclipses NG for first time since January 2016.

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *2016

Thou

sand

s of M

egaw

atthou

rsCoal Natural Gas

Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser

*Data through December 2016

U.S. Net Generation – Coal vs. Natural Gas

3/23/2017 35

Generation from NG exceeds coal for first time in data series.

0

5

10

15

20

25

11/1/2012

1/1/2013

3/1/2013

5/1/2013

7/1/2013

9/1/2013

11/1/2013

1/1/2014

3/1/2014

5/1/2014

7/1/2014

9/1/2014

11/1/2014

1/1/2015

3/1/2015

5/1/2015

7/1/2015

9/1/2015

11/1/2015

1/1/2016

3/1/2016

5/1/2016

7/1/2016

9/1/2016

11/1/2016

1/1/2017

3/1/2017

Dollars Per M

M Btus

Japan ChinaUnited Kingdom SpainBrazil Everett, Maine

LNG Landed Prices – thru Mar. 2017

3/23/2017 36

Electricity

3/23/2017 37

U.S. Monthly Electricity Net Generationby Fuel Type – Thru December 2016

3/23/2017 38

Source: EIA Electricity Data Browser.

Natural gas staying above coal for the first time.

U.S. Regional Electric Net Generationby Fuel Type – December 2016

3/23/2017 39

Source: EIA Electricity Monthly Update – February 2017.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Arizon

a

California

Hawaii

Nevada

New

Mexico

Oregon

Utah

Washington

Other

Wood & Wood Derived Fuels

Wind

Other Biomass

Solar Thermal & Photovoltaic

Petroleum

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Hydro & Pumped Storage

Geothermal

Coal

Western States Electric Net Generationby Fuel Type – 2016 Y‐T‐D

3/23/2017 40

Source: EIA Electricity Monthly Updates – Data thru December.

3/23/2017 41

16.0 percent of U.S. under drought.14.3 percent same time last year.

February 21, 2017

3/23/2017 42

February 21, 2017

3/23/2017 43

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Thou

sand

s of M

egaw

atthou

rsCalifornia 2011‐2015 High Range

California 2011‐2015 Low Range

California 2016

California Monthly Net GenerationConventional Hydroelectric Sources

3/23/2017 44


California net generation thru December 109.6 percent higher than 2015.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Thou

sand

s of M

egaw

atthou

rsWashington 2011‐2015 High Range

Washington 2011‐2015 Low Range

Washington 2016

Oregon 2011‐2015 High Range

Oregon 2011‐2015 Low Range

Oregon 2016

WA‐OR Monthly Net GenerationConventional Hydroelectric Sources

3/23/2017 45


Oregon net generation thru December 7.8 percent higher than 2015.

Washington net generation thru December 4.7 percent higher than 2015.

• CA net generation from hydroelectric sources, percent of total U.S.

– 2011 – 13.3 %– 2012 – 9.7 %– 2013 – 8.9 %– 2014 – 6.4 %– 2015 – 5.5 %– Jan. 2016 – 4.3 %– Feb. 2016 – 6.4 %– Mar. 2016 – 10.3 %– Apr. 2016 – 10.8 %– May 2016 – 12.5 %– June 2016 – 14.3 %– July 2016 – 16.1 %– Aug. 2016 – 14.8 %– Sept. 2016 – 14.1 %– Oct. 2016 – 10.0 %– Nov. 2016 – 8.9 %– Dec. 2016 – 10.2 %

3/23/2017 46

California Reservoir Status 3/22/17

Sources: California Department of Water Resources, Data Exchange Center & EIA.

3/23/2017 47

Snowpack Outlook – Western StatesSierras Higher, Cascades Mixed Y‐O‐Y

3/23/2017 48

Snowpack Outlook – High Water Content

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1O

ct-1

1Ja

n-12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2O

ct-1

2Ja

n-13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3O

ct-1

3Ja

n-14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4O

ct-1

4Ja

n-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5Ja

n-16

Apr

-16

Jul-1

6O

ct-1

6Ja

n-17

Perc

ent o

f Lab

or F

orce

Une

mpl

oyed

Western Region Unemployment Rates

U.S. (4.8) Western Region (4.8) Arizona (5) California (5.1) New Mexico (6.7)

Nevada (5) Oregon (4.3) Utah (3.1) Washington (5.1) Rest of U.S. (4.8)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3/23/2017 49

Unemployment rates as of 1/1/2017

Gasoline

3/23/2017 50

140

190

240

290

340

390

440

6/1/2015

7/1/2015

8/1/2015

9/1/2015

10/1/2015

11/1/2015

12/1/2015

1/1/2016

2/1/2016

3/1/2016

4/1/2016

5/1/2016

6/1/2016

7/1/2016

8/1/2016

9/1/2016

10/1/2016

11/1/2016

12/1/2016

1/1/2017

2/1/2017

3/1/2017

Cents Pe

r Gallon

United States ArizonaCalifornia IllinoisNevada New MexicoOregon UtahWashington

Source: AAA retail gasoline ‐ regular grade prices.

3/23/2017 51

Western States Retail Gasoline Prices

Prices through 3/20/17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1/2/2015

2/2/2015

3/2/2015

4/2/2015

5/2/2015

6/2/2015

7/2/2015

8/2/2015

9/2/2015

10/2/2015

11/2/2015

12/2/2015

1/2/2016

2/2/2016

3/2/2016

4/2/2016

5/2/2016

6/2/2016

7/2/2016

8/2/2016

9/2/2016

10/2/2016

11/2/2016

12/2/2016

1/2/2017

2/2/2017

3/2/2017

Cents Pe

r Gallon

Fuels‐Under‐The‐Cap ‐ Gasoline AssessmentLow Carbon Fuels Standard ‐ Gasoline Assessment

3/23/2017 52

California Gasoline – LCFS & FUTC Values

Values through 3/21/17

Source: Oil Price Information Service.

Current values – FUTC 10.9 cpg, LCFS – 4.1 cpg

U.S. Gasoline – Rising Production & Demand

3/23/2017 53

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Jan‐81

May‐82

Sep‐83

Jan‐85

May‐86

Sep‐87

Jan‐89

May‐90

Sep‐91

Jan‐93

May‐94

Sep‐95

Jan‐97

May‐98

Sep‐99

Jan‐01

May‐02

Sep‐03

Jan‐05

May‐06

Sep‐07

Jan‐09

May‐10

Sep‐11

Jan‐13

May‐14

Sep‐15

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

U.S. Finished Gasoline Demand (1981 ‐ December 2016)

Source: Energy Information Administration.

3/23/2017 54

9,144

9,310

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

9,200

9,400

9,600

9,800


Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

U.S. Finished Gasoline Demand 2016 vs. 2015

2015 2016Source: Energy Information Administration.

3/23/2017 55

2016 gasoline demand up 1.81 percent compared to same period in 2015.

California Gasoline Output – Above Normal

3/23/2017 56

Source: California Energy Commission.

Data through March 17, 2017

Gasoline Production Normal ‐ North

3/23/2017 57

Source: California Energy Commission.Data through March 17, 2017

Gasoline Production Above Normal ‐ South

3/23/2017 58

Source: California Energy Commission. Data through March 17, 2017

Refinery Operations – Look Ahead

3/23/2017 59

• Other refinery issues:• Crude oil maintenance activity average for this time of year• Planned gasoline‐related maintenance during 2Q 2017 much lighter

than normal

Sources: Industrial Information Resources (IIR) Refinery Off-line Report & DOE Review.

CA Gasoline – Inventories Normal

3/23/2017 60


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1/2

1/9

1/16

1/23

1/30 2/6

2/13

2/20

2/27 3/6

3/13

3/20

3/27 4/3

4/10

4/17

4/24 5/1

5/8

5/15

5/22

5/29 6/5

6/12

6/19

6/26

7/03

7/10

7/17

7/24

7/31 8/7

8/14

8/21

8/28 9/4

9/11

9/18

9/25

10/2

10/9

10/16

10/23

10/30

11/6

11/13

11/20

11/27

12/4

12/11

12/18

12/25

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per D

ay

2017 Total Gasoline Imports2016 Total Gasoline Imports2015 Total Gasoline Imports2014 Total Gasoline Imports

Source: California Energy Commission analysis of weekly import data from the Energy Information Administration.

Y‐T‐D 2017 averaged 20.6 TBD30.7 TBD same period 2016 10.1 TBD same period 2015 10.4 TBD same period 2014

West Coast Foreign Gasoline Imports

3/23/2017 61

33.7

6.3

9.8

30.2

60.4

26.123.6

29.8

21.7 22.0

28.9

45.5

36.938.5

21.223.3

14.812.9

33.3

0.3

18.5

0.2

8.1

16.7

9.1

22.8

53.0

29.1 30.4

48.4

19.8

54.2

20.6

29.129.7

60.7

54.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Janu

ary

February

March

April

May

June July

August

Septem

ber

October

Novem

ber

December

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

2014 20152016 2017

Source: California Energy Commission analysis of the International Trade Commission's Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb.

California Foreign Gasoline Exports

3/23/2017 62

99.7 percent of shipments originated from Northern California during 2017.

2017 exports have averaged 9.1 TBD vs. 18.6 TBD during 2016.

50.4

36.9

27.7

4.0

21.0

7.3

22.8

9.6

26.5

18.5

39.7

49.6

16.613.4

15.4 16.5 16.1 16.9

13.0

27.2

13.3

23.5

33.1

44.1

19.1

35.3

45.1

16.7

37.8

59.7

26.5

29.9

25.1

36.3

10.2

44.3

50.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Janu

ary

February

March

April

May

June July

August

Septem

ber

October

Novem

ber

December

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

2014 20152016 2017

Source: California Energy Commission analysis of the International Trade Commission's Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb.

Pacific Northwest Foreign Gasoline Exports

3/23/2017 63

2017 exports have averaged 50.1 TBD vs. 19.1 TBD during 2016.

‐60

‐40

‐20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1/3/12

3/3/12

5/3/12

7/3/12

9/3/12

11/3/12

1/3/13

3/3/13

5/3/13

7/3/13

9/3/13

11/3/13

1/3/14

3/3/14

5/3/14

7/3/14

9/3/14

11/3/14

1/3/15

3/3/15

5/3/15

7/3/15

9/3/15

11/3/15

1/3/16

3/3/16

5/3/16

7/3/16

9/3/16

11/3/16

1/3/17

3/3/17

CARB

OB Spot Price Less NYM

EX M

onth‐Ahe

ad Price (cpg)

Los Angeles

San Francisco

2012 average was 11.6 cpg premium to NYMEX2013 average was 5.9 cpg2014 average was 3.5 cpg2015 average was 28.0 cpg2016 average was 4.3 cpg2017 average‐to‐date + 8.8 cpg ‐ Tuesday + 1.3 cpg

Sources: EIA ‐ NYMEX RBOB Contract 1 PricesOPIS ‐ CARBOB Spot Pipeline Prices

Tight Supplies

Ample Supplies

CA Gasoline Market – Improving Supply

3/23/2017 64

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45


Millions of G

allons per Day

2011‐2015 High Range

2011‐2015 Low Range

2016

Calif. Mogas Demand 2016 vs. Seasonal Range

Source: Board of Equalization & CEC Analysis

3/23/2017 65

Most recent 12 months demand up 2.26 percent versus previous period.

2016 Y-T-D demand thru November up 2.30 percent versus previous period.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

Thou

sand

s of G

allons

Source: California Energy Commission

Since the peak in 2004, gasoline consumption declined seven of the next eight years.Gasoline consumption dropped 8.94 percent between 2004 and 2012.

2015 consumption up 2.76 percent compared to 2014. Highest level since 2007.

3/23/2017 66

2015 demand totaled 15,107,812,480 gallons.

Calif. Gasoline Demand 1945‐*2016

*2016 consumption projected at 15.49 billion gallons.

525

384.9

814

591.7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

9001945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

Gallons of G

asoline Pe

r Person Pe

r Year

California Gasoline Consumption1945 ‐ 2015

Per CapitaPer Driver

Between 1978 and 2015 Per Capita Consumption Has Decreased 26.64 Percent

Population Source: California Department of Finance Demographic Research Unit, May 2016

Gasoline Source: California Energy Commission Analysis of Federal Highway Administration and CA Board of Equalization Data

Between 1973 and 2015 Per Driver Consumption Has Decreased 27.29 Percent

3/23/2017 67

Diesel Fuel

3/23/2017 68

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

6/1/2015

7/1/2015

8/1/2015

9/1/2015

10/1/2015

11/1/2015

12/1/2015

1/1/2016

2/1/2016

3/1/2016

4/1/2016

5/1/2016

6/1/2016

7/1/2016

8/1/2016

9/1/2016

10/1/2016

11/1/2016

12/1/2016

1/1/2017

2/1/2017

3/1/2017

Cents Pe

r Gallon

United States ArizonaCalifornia IllinoisNevada New MexicoOregon UtahWashington

Source: AAA retail diesel fuel prices.

3/23/2017 69

Western States Retail Diesel Fuel Prices

Prices through 3/20/17

Utah price increase reflects impact of Plains crude oil pipeline closure.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1/2/2015

2/2/2015

3/2/2015

4/2/2015

5/2/2015

6/2/2015

7/2/2015

8/2/2015

9/2/2015

10/2/2015

11/2/2015

12/2/2015

1/2/2016

2/2/2016

3/2/2016

4/2/2016

5/2/2016

6/2/2016

7/2/2016

8/2/2016

9/2/2016

10/2/2016

11/2/2016

12/2/2016

1/2/2017

2/2/2017

3/2/2017

Cents Pe

r Gallon

Fuels‐Under‐The‐Cap ‐ Diesel Fuel AssessmentLow Carbon Fuels Standard ‐ Diesel Fuel Assessment

3/23/2017 70

California Diesel Fuel – LCFS & FUTC Values

Values through 3/21/17

Source: Oil Price Information Service.

Current values – FUTC 13.2 cpg, LCFS – 3.8 cpg

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

$2.50

3/22/16

3/31/16

4/11/16

4/20/16

4/29/16

5/10/16

5/19/16

5/30/16

6/8/16

6/17/16

6/28/16

7/7/16

7/19/16

7/28/16

8/8/16

8/17/16

8/26/16

9/7/16

9/16/16

9/27/16

10/6/16

10/17/16

10/26/16

11/4/16

11/15/16

11/24/16

12/5/16

12/14/16

12/23/16

1/3/17

1/12/17

1/23/17

2/1/17

2/10/17

2/21/17

3/2/17

3/13/17

Dollars Per Gallon

Interstate Diesel Rack Prices3/22/16 ‐ 3/21/17

Las Vegas PhoenixPortland RenoLos Angeles


3/23/2017 71

Las Vegas price excursion tied to Salt Lake City refinery temporary crude oil supply constraint.

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-

10M

ay-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-

12M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Jan-

15M

ay-1

5Se

p-15

Jan-

16M

ay-1

6Se

p-16

Thou

sand

s of

Bar

rels

per

Day

Inventory Build or Draw

Net Imports

Production

Apparent Demand

ULSD – U.S. Supply/Demand Balance

3/23/2017 72


ULSD production rises from 4.753 to 4.776 million barrels per day during December 2016

3,613

3,795

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400


Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

2015 2016

2016 Y‐T‐D demand 2.68 percent lower than same time last year.

December 2016 demand 5.03 percent higher than same time last year.

ULSD – U.S. Demand 2016 vs. 2015

3/23/2017 73


681.7

831.7

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900


Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

2015 2016

2016 Y‐T‐D PADD 3 demand 4.86 percent lower than same time last year.

1,173.5

1,185.6

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400


Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day

2015 2016

2016 Y‐T‐D PADD 2 demand 1.68 percent lower than same time last year.

ULSD – Drilling & Rail Activity Related

3/23/2017 74


PADD 5 Y-T-D demand up 1.18 percent.

PADD 1 Y-T-D demand down 5.28 percent.

PADD 4 Y-T-D demand down 1.35 percent.

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

2001

2007

2013

2/1/2014

3/15/2014

4/26/2014

6/7/2014

7/19/2014

8/30/2014

10/11/2014

11/22/2014

1/3/2015

2/14/2015

3/28/2015

5/9/2015

6/20/2015

8/1/2015

9/12/2015

10/24/2015

12/5/2015

1/16/2016

2/27/2016

4/9/2016

5/21/2016

7/2/2016

8/13/2016

9/24/2016

11/5/2016

12/17/2016

1/28/2017

3/11/2017

Weekly Ra

il Activity

Origina

ting in U.S.

Carloads

Containers and Trailers

Holiday impacts

Most recent 4‐weeks average up 4.69 percent vs. same period in 2016

Down 0.27 percent vs. 2016

2017 Y‐T‐D rail traffic up 4.14 percent versus 20162016 rail traffic down 3.73 percent versus 2015

Weekly Traffic of Major U.S. RailroadsSource: Association of American Railroads – Weekly Rail Traffic Summary

3/23/2017 75

Carload Activity of Major U.S. Railroads

Source: Association of American Railroads – Weekly Rail Traffic Summary – 3/18/17

3/23/2017 76

Carload Activity – Coal Shipments

3/23/2017 77

2017 Y-T-D up 15.5 percent or 11,406 carloads per week versus 2016 Y-T-D.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jan‐20

10

Apr‐20

10

Jul‐2

010

Oct‐201

0

Jan‐20

11

Apr‐20

11

Jul‐2

011

Oct‐201

1

Jan‐20

12

Apr‐20

12

Jul‐2

012

Oct‐201

2

Jan‐20

13

Apr‐20

13

Jul‐2

013

Oct‐201

3

Jan‐20

14

Apr‐20

14

Jul‐2

014

Oct‐201

4

Jan‐20

15

Apr‐20

15

Jul‐2

015

Oct‐201

5

Jan‐20

16

Apr‐20

16

Jul‐2

016

Oct‐201

6

Percen

tage of U

.S. Produ

ction

Thou

sand

s of Barrels Pe

r Day

National CBR Movements

Percentage of U.S. Production


2.80 percent of U.S. production as of December 2016. Excludes Canadian import movements.

Crude‐by‐rail volumes include oil from U.S. production and Canadian rail imports.

U.S. Crude‐by‐Rail Transportation

3/23/2017 78

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Janu

ary‐13

March‐13

May‐13

July‐13

Septem

ber‐13

Nov

embe

r‐13

Janu

ary‐14

March‐14

May‐14

July‐14

Septem

ber‐14

Nov

embe

r‐14

Janu

ary‐15

March‐15

May‐15

July‐15

Septem

ber‐15

Nov

embe

r‐15

Janu

ary‐16

March‐16

May‐16

July‐16

Septem

ber‐16

Nov

embe

r‐16

Barrels P

er M

onth

California Crude Oil ImportsVia Rail Tank Cars

Canada

Colorado

New Mexico

North Dakota

Utah

Wyoming

Other Lower 48 States

Source: California Energy Commission

3/23/2017 79

CBR numbers for 2016 down 32.6 percent compared to 2015 (1,188,510 barrels versus 1,762,373 barrels).

2016 Y-T-D CBR deliveries averaging 3.3 TBD – less than 0.2 percent of total supply.

CA Diesel Production – Normal

3/23/2017 80

Source: California Energy Commission.

Data through March 17, 2017

CA Diesel Inventory – Normal

3/23/2017 81


‐50

‐30

‐10

10

30

50

70

1/3/12

3/3/12

5/3/12

7/3/12

9/3/12

11/3/12

1/3/13

3/3/13

5/3/13

7/3/13

9/3/13

11/3/13

1/3/14

3/3/14

5/3/14

7/3/14

9/3/14

11/3/14

1/3/15

3/3/15

5/3/15

7/3/15

9/3/15

11/3/15

1/3/16

3/3/16

5/3/16

7/3/16

9/3/16

11/3/16

1/3/17

3/3/17

Diesel Spo

t Price Less NYM

EX M

onth‐Ahe

ad Price (cpg)

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Pacific Northwest

2013 CA average was 2.4 cpg ‐ PNW was 2.4 cpg2014 CA average was 1.4 cpg ‐ PNW was 4.0 cpg2015 CA average was 0.9 cpg ‐ PNW was 7.0 cpg2016 CA average was 2.3 cpg ‐ PNW was 6.1 cpg2017 CA average‐to‐date + 1.1 cpg, Tuesday + 2.6 cpg2017 PNWaverage‐to‐date + 4.1 cpg, Tuesday + 5.0 cpg

Sources: EIA ‐ NYMEXHeating Oil Contract 1 PricesOPIS ‐ Diesel Spot Pipeline Prices

Tight Supplies

Ample Supplies

Diesel Market – Normal Supply West Coast

3/23/2017 82

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0


Millions of G

allons per Day

2011‐2015 High Range2011‐2015 Low Range2016

Calif. Diesel Demand 2016 vs. Seasonal Range

Sources: Board of Equalization & CEC Analysis

3/23/2017 83

Most recent 12 months demand up 1.58 percent versus previous period.

2016 Y-T-D demand through November up 1.67 percent versus previous year.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan‐2009

Apr‐2009

Jul‐2

009

Oct‐2009

Jan‐2010

Apr‐2010

Jul‐2

010

Oct‐2010

Jan‐2011

Apr‐2011

Jul‐2

011

Oct‐2011

Jan‐2012

Apr‐2012

Jul‐2

012

Oct‐2012

Jan‐2013

Apr‐2013

Jul‐2

013

Oct‐2013

Jan‐2014

Apr‐2014

Jul‐2

014

Oct‐2014

Jan‐2015

Apr‐2015

Jul‐2

015

Oct‐2015

Jan‐2016

Apr‐2016

Jul‐2

016

Oct‐2016

Thou

sand

s of B

arrels Per Day Finished Gasoline

Gasoline Blending Components

Commercial Jet Fuel

Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel

Sources: EIA and Energy Commission Analysis.Y‐T‐D Exports Through December, versus Previous Year

ULSD averaging 1,007.4 TBD, up 4.3 percentFinished Gasoline averaging 631.3 TBD, up 32.6 percentJet Fuel averaging 176.2 TBD, up 4.9 percentGasoline Blending Components averaging 130.2 TBD, down 8.0 percent

U.S. Transportation Fuel Exports

3/23/2017 84

Renewable Fuels

3/23/2017 85

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

1866

1871

1876

1881

1886

1891

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

*2016

Thou

sand

s of Acres

Corn Acres Planted & Harvested (1866 ‐ *2016)

Acres Planted ‐ All Purposes

Acres Harvested ‐ Grain Only

94.00 million acres estimated to have been planted in 2016, up 6.82 percent versus 2015.

3/23/2017 86

*USDA estimate as of 2/9/17.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1866

1871

1876

1881

1886

1891

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

*2016

Bushels P

er Acre

U.S. Annual Corn Yield (1866 ‐ *2016)

Source: USDA‐National Agricultural Statistics Service

Corn yield estimate for 2016 at a record 174.6 bushels per acre. Up 3.68 percent compared to 2015.

3/23/2017 87


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1866

1871

1876

1881

1886

1891

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

*2016

Millions of B

ushe

lsU.S. Annual Corn Production (1866 ‐ *2016)

Source: USDA‐National Agricultural Statistics Service

2016 production estimated a record 15.148 billion bushels, 11.37 percent higher than 2015.

3/23/2017 88


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1975

‐76

1976

‐77

1977

‐78

1978

‐79

1979

‐80

1980

‐81

1981

‐82

1982

‐83

1983

‐84

1984

‐85

1985

‐86

1986

‐87

1987

‐88

1988

‐89

1989

‐90

1990

‐91

1991

‐92

1992

‐93

1993

‐94

1994

‐95

1995

‐96

1996

‐97

1997

‐98

1998

‐99

1999

‐00

2000

‐01

2001

‐02

2002

‐03

2003

‐04

2004

‐05

2005

‐06

2006

‐07

2007

‐08

2008

‐ 09

2009

‐10

2010

‐11

2011

‐12

2012

‐13

2013

‐14

2014

‐15

2015

‐16

Millions of B

ushe

ls

Ending Stocks

Percent of Forecast Domestic Use

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

3/23/2017 89

Stocks prior to start of 2016 harvest was estimated to be 0.3 percent higher than the levels of 2015.

*2016 value is based on estimate by USDA as of February 14, 2017.

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Sep‐75

Jan‐77

May‐78

Sep‐79

Jan‐81

May‐82

Sep‐83

Jan‐85

May‐86

Sep‐87

Jan‐89

May‐90

Sep‐91

Jan‐93

May‐94

Sep‐95

Jan‐97

May‐98

Sep‐99

Jan‐01

May‐02

Sep‐03

Jan‐05

May‐06

Sep‐07

Jan‐09

May‐10

Sep‐11

Jan‐13

May‐14

Sep‐15

Jan‐17

Dollars Per Bushel

40.2% corn price rise between May and July of 2008 ‐ previous worst drought

26.8% corn price rise between May and July of 2012 due to drought

Record low end‐of‐season inventory outlook

U.S. Monthly Corn Prices

3/23/2017 90

2013 price averaged $5.792014 price averaged $4.152015 price averaged $3.772016 price averaged $3.582017 Y-T-D price average $3.65February 2017 price averaged $3.69

Source: Moore Research Center, Chicago Board of Trade Daily Month-Ahead Futures Prices

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*201

6

Mill

ions

of B

ushe

ls

Other Uses Sugars & StarchFeed & Residual Use Fuel EthanolExports Production

U.S. Corn Disposition & Production

2016 estimate that 44.2 percent of domestic corn use was for ethanol production.

*2016 forecast based on estimate by USDA as of March 14, 2017.

3/23/2017 91

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*2016

Percen

t of Total Use Fuel Ethanol Beverage Alcohol

Cereal High Fructose Corn SyrupSugars, Starch & Seed ExportsFeed & Residual

2016 estimate for corn used to make fuel ethanol at 37.4 percent of total use or disappearance.

U.S. Corn End Use – Percent of Supply

3/23/2017 92

*2016 based on estimate by USDA as of March 14, 2017.

Corn Futures Price Slides Below $3.60

3/23/2017 93

Ethanol Futures Price Rebound Eases

3/23/2017 94

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1/1/04

4/1/04

7/1/04

10/1/04

1/1/05

4/1/05

7/1/05

10/1/05

1/1/06

4/1/06

7/1/06

10/1/06

1/1/07

4/1/07

7/1/07

10/1/07

1/1/08

4/1/08

7/1/08

10/1/08

1/1/09

4/1/09

7/1/09

10/1/09

1/1/10

4/1/10

7/1/10

10/1/10

1/1/11

4/1/11

7/1/11

10/1/11

1/1/12

4/1/12

7/1/12

10/1/12

1/1/13

4/1/13

7/1/13

10/1/13

1/1/14

4/1/14

7/1/14

10/1/14

1/1/15

4/1/15

7/1/15

10/1/15

1/1/16

4/1/16

7/1/16

10/1/16

1/1/17

3/1/17

3/6/17

3/9/17

3/14/17

3/17/17

Crush Spread

s (Ce

nts Pe

r Gallon & Bushe

l)

Formula: [OPIS Ethanol ‐ (CBOT Corn/2.74)] Cents per GallonOPIS Ethanol = Average of Daily Los Angeles Ethanol Railcar PricesCBOT Corn = Average of the Daily Month‐Ahead ValuesCBOT = Chicago Board of Trade

Line Formula: [(OPIS Ethanol * 2.74) ‐ CBOT Corn] Cents per BushelOPIS Ethanol = Average of Daily Los Angeles Ethanol Railcar PricesCBOT Corn = Average of the Daily Month‐Ahead ValuesCBOT = Chicago Board of Trade

Ethanol Crush Spread – Margins Remain Low

3/23/2017 95

‐30

20

70

120

170

220

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Jan '99

Jan '01

Jan '03

Jan '05

Jan '07

Jan '09

Jan '10

Apr‐11

Jun‐11

Jan‐12

Mar‐12

May‐12

Aug‐12

May‐13

Jul‐13

Feb‐14

Oct.14

Jul‐15

Dec‐15

May‐16

Sep‐16

Num

ber o

f Ethan

ol Plants ‐

Ope

ratin

g & Idle

Millions of G

allons Per Ye

ar

Under Construction

Idle Plants

Operating Plants

Ethanol Plants

U.S. Ethanol Plants Operating Status

Source: Energy Information Administration, Renewable Fuels Association, Nebraska Energy Office & Energy Commission analysis.

3/23/2017 96

12 plants idle as of Sept. 20162.7 percent of U.S. capacity

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1/4/

16

1/25

/16

2/15

/16

3/7/

16

3/28

/16

4/18

/16

5/9/

16

5/30

/16

6/20

/16

7/11

/16

8/1/

16

8/22

/16

9/12

/16

10/3

/16

10/2

4/16

11/1

4/16

12/5

/16

12/2

6/16

1/16

/17

2/6/

17

2/27

/17

3/20

/17

4/10

/17

Cen

ts p

er G

allo

nCalifornia Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock Prices

(January 2016 - March 21, 2017)Ethanol Railcar LASpot Alkylate Gulf (+Transport)Spot CARBOB LA

Ethanol blender differential narrows from 55.3 to 7.3 cpg more than gasoline as of March 21.

3/23/2017 97

E85 blending currently uneconomical. Favorable zero percent of the time during 2017 Y-T-D.

0255075

100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550

1/4/

104/

4/10

7/4/

1010

/4/1

01/

4/11

4/4/

117/

4/11

10/4

/11

1/4/

124/

4/12

7/4/

1210

/4/1

21/

4/13

4/4/

137/

4/13

10/4

/13

1/4/

144/

4/14

7/4/

1410

/4/1

41/

4/15

4/4/

157/

4/15

10/4

/15

1/4/

164/

4/16

7/4/

1610

/4/1

61/

4/17

4/4/

17

Cen

ts p

er G

allo

n

Prices Back to Jan. 2010

20

70

120

170

220

270

320

1/4/16

1/25/16

2/15/16

3/7/16

3/28/16

4/18/16

5/9/16

5/30/16

6/20/16

7/11/16

8/1/16

8/22/16

9/12/16

10/3/16

10/24/16

11/14/16

12/5/16

12/26/16

1/16/17

2/6/17

2/27/17

3/20/17

Cents Pe

r Gallon

2016 Ethanol RIN

2017 Ethanol RIN

2016 Cellulosic Ethanol RIN

2017 Cellulosic Ethanol RIN

Ethanol RIN Credit Values 1/4/16 to 3/21/17


3/23/2017 98

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mill

ions

of G

allo

ns P

er Y

ear

U.S. Ethanol Production 1979 - 2016

Source: Energy Information Administration, Ethanol Producer Magazine & Energy Commission analysis.

Ethanol production for 2016 increased to a record 15.329 billion gallons, 3.53 percent higher than 2015.

3/23/2017 99

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Thou

sand

s of

Bar

rels

Per

Day

Other CountriesCanadaTrinidad & TobagoJamaicaEl SalvadorCosta RicaBrazil

U.S. Imports of Fuel Ethanol

3/23/2017 100


Brazil imports averaged 0.0 TBD during December 2016.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

14019

8919

9219

9519

9820

0120

0420

07Fe

b-08

May

-08

Aug

-08

Nov

-08

Feb-

09M

ay-0

9A

ug-0

9N

ov-0

9Fe

b-10

May

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Feb-

11M

ay-1

1A

ug-1

1N

ov-1

1Fe

b-12

May

-12

Aug

-12

Nov

-12

Feb-

13M

ay-1

3A

ug-1

3N

ov-1

3Fe

b-14

May

-14

Aug

-14

Nov

-14

Feb-

15M

ay-1

5A

ug-1

5N

ov-1

5Fe

b-16

May

-16

Aug

-16

Nov

-16

Thou

sand

s of

Bar

rels

Per

Day

U.S. Imports & Exports for Ethanol1989 through December 2016

Imports

Exports

Exports include:2207106010 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207106090 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for non‐beverage2207200010 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207200090 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol other than for fuel

Sources: Energy Information Administration, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & Energy Commission analysis.

3/23/2017 101

Net exports drop from 96.8 to 75.3 TBD

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1O

ct-1

1Ja

n-12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2O

ct-1

2Ja

n-13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3O

ct-1

3Ja

n-14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4O

ct-1

4Ja

n-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5O

ct-1

5Ja

n-16

Apr

-16

Jul-1

6

Thou

sand

s of

Bar

rels

Per

Day

Brazil & U.S. Imports & Exports for Ethanol2008 through December 2016

Imports Into U.S.Exports to BrazilNet Balance Between Brazil and U.S.

Exports include:2207106010 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207106090 ‐Undenatured ethyl alcohol for non‐beverage2207200010 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol for fuel2207200090 ‐Denatured ethyl alcohol other than for fuel

Sources: Energy Information Administration, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & Energy Commission analysis.

3/23/2017 102

Net exports to Brazil dropfrom 40.4 to 32.6 TBD

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16Ju

l-16

Thou

sand

s of

Bar

rels

per

Day

Inventory Build or Draw

Net Imports

Production

Apparent Demand

U.S. Ethanol Supply & Demand

3/23/2017 103

Demand rises from 951.0 TBD in November to 959.3 TBD in December 2016.


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5

Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6

Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7

Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8

Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9

Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0

Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1

Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2

Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3

Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

Jan‐15

Jul‐1

5

Jan‐16

Jul‐1

6

Ethanol "Blend Wall"

U.S. Ethanol Concentration in Gasoline

3/23/2017 104

Average concentration rises from 10.29 to 10.30 percent in all gasoline for December 2016. Can exceed 10 percent blend wall through use of E15 & E85. 2014 E85 sales estimated to range between 150 and 173 million gallons by U.S. EPA.


‐100

‐50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan‐06

Jun‐06

Nov

‐06

Apr‐07

Sep‐07

Feb‐08

Jul‐0

8

Dec‐08

May‐09

Oct‐09

Mar‐10

Aug‐10

Jan‐11

Jun‐11

Nov

‐11

Apr‐12

Sep‐12

Feb‐13

Jul‐1

3

Dec‐13

May‐14

Oct‐14

Mar‐15

Aug‐15

Jan‐16

Jun‐16

Thou

sand

s of Barrels Per Day

Production Net Imports

Inventory Change Apparent Demand

Biodiesel demand rises to 163.39 thousand barrels per day in November 2016.

2016 Y‐T‐D demand 36.4 percent higher than 2015 Y‐T‐D.

U.S. Biodiesel Balance

Sources: EIA & Energy Commission analysis.

3/23/2017 105

*Y-T-D imports through November 2016 averaging 29.13 percent of supply.

9 10 14 2891

250

490

678

516

343

967 991

1,359

1,279 1,263

1,555

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*201

6

Millions of G

allons

U.S. Biodiesel Production Sources: Energy Information Administration & Energy Commission analysis.

2015 production total reached 1.263 billion gallons for the year, decrease of 1.8 percent compared to 2014.2016 calendar year requirement was 1.90 billion gallons, excluding the use of carry-over RIN credits.

2017 calendar year requirement is 2.00 billion gallons, excluding the use of carry-over RIN credits.

3/23/2017 106

2016 production projected to be a record 1.55 billion gallons.

1.7 2.3 4.6 5.2 8.935.9

281.2

700.3

274.9

108.7 75.5128.3

196.3

82.9 87.8 84.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*201

6

Millions of G

allons

Biodiesel Exports

Export Portion of Supply

U.S. Biodiesel Exports & Percent of Supply 2015 exports totaled 87.9 million gallons for the year – 5.5 percent of total supply.

3/23/2017 107


*Y-T-D exports through November 2016 averaging 4.24 percent of supply.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4Jan‐15

Jul‐1

5Jan‐16

Jul‐1

6

Percen

t Biodiesel in On‐Ro

ad Diesel Fue

lU.S. Biodiesel Concentration in Diesel Fuel

3/23/2017 108


Average concentration rises from 3.99 to a 4.33 percent during November 2016 in all on-road diesel fuel. Actual percentage could be lower, depending on quantity blended with heating oil. Total U.S. heating oil market estimated at 6.67 billion gallons for 2015 which equates to a potential of 133.4 million gallons of biodiesel assuming a blend of 2 percent by volume.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1/4/16

1/25/16

2/15/16

3/7/16

3/28/16

4/18/16

5/9/16

5/30/16

6/20/16

7/11/16

8/1/16

8/22/16

9/12/16

10/3/16

10/24/16

11/14/16

12/5/16

12/26/16

1/16/17

2/6/17

2/27/17

3/20/17

Cents Pe

r Gallon

2016 Biodiesel RIN

2017 Biodiesel RIN

2016 Advanced Biofuel RIN

2017 Advanced Biofuel RIN

Biofuel RIN Credit Values 1/4/16 to 3/21/17


3/23/2017 109

Alternative Vehicles

3/23/2017 110

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

Jun

2007

Oct 2007

Feb

2008

Jun

2008

Oct 2008

Feb

2009

Jun

2009

Oct 2009

Feb

2010

Jun 2010

Oct 2010

Feb

2011

Jun 2011

Oct 2011

Feb

2012

Jun 2012

Oct 2012

Feb 2013

Jun 2013

Oct 2013

Feb 2014

Jun 2014

Oct 2014

Feb 2015

Jun 2015

Oct 2015

Feb 2016

Jun 2016

Oct 2016

Feb 2017

New

Veh

icle Sa

les

Passenger CarsLight Trucks

U.S. Vehicle Sales

Source: Motor Intelligence, AutoData monthly light vehicle deliveries.

3/23/2017 111

Y-T-D thru February passenger car sales down 12.15 percent compared to 2016. Light truck sales up 6.37 percent.

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Jun

2007

Nov

2007

Apr 2008

Sep

2008

Feb

2009

Jul 2009

Dec 2009

May 2010

Oct 2010

Mar 2011

Aug 2011

Jan 2012

Jun 2012

Nov 2012

Apr 2

013

Sep 2013

Feb 2014

Jul 2014

Dec 2014

May 2015

Oct 2015

Mar 2016

Aug 2016

Jan 2017

Dollars Per Gallon

Percen

tage of Total New

Veh

icle Sa

les

Passenger Cars

U.S. Retail Gasoline Price

U.S. Passenger Car Sales Share

Source: Motor Intelligence, AutoData monthly light vehicle deliveries and EIA retail prices.

3/23/2017 112

Passenger cars portion rises from 37.39 to 37.66 percent during Feb. 2017.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1999

Avg.

2003

Avg.

2007

Avg.

Jan‐10

May‐10

Sep‐10

Jan‐11

May‐11

Sep‐11

Jan‐12

May‐12

Sep‐12

Jan‐13

May‐13

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

May‐14

Sep‐14

Jan‐15

May‐15

Sep‐15

Jan‐16

May‐16

Sep‐16

Jan‐17

Dollars Per Gallon

Mon

thly Sales in

the United States

Hybrids ‐ All Models


U.S. Hybrid Vehicle Sales

Sources: EIA & Hybridcars.com

3/23/2017 113

33 models – Feb. 2017 $28,688 volume-weighted sales price

Y-T-D sales up 12.34 percent compared to 2016.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Dec‐10

Mar‐11

Jun‐11

Sep‐11

Dec‐11

Mar‐12

Jun‐12

Sep‐12

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Dollars Per Gallon

Mon

thly Sales in

the United States

PHEV Vehicles ‐ All Models


U.S. PHEV Vehicle Sales


3/23/2017 114

17 models – Feb. 2017 $37,098 volume-weighted sales price


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Dec‐10

Mar‐11

Jun‐11

Sep‐11

Dec‐11

Mar‐12

Jun‐12

Sep‐12

Dec‐12

Mar‐13

Jun‐13

Sep‐13

Dec‐13

Mar‐14

Jun‐14

Sep‐14

Dec‐14

Mar‐15

Jun‐15

Sep‐15

Dec‐15

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Dollars Per Gallon

Mon

thly Sales in

the United States

BEVs ‐ All Models


U.S. Battery Electric Vehicle Sales


3/23/2017 115

13 models – Feb. 2017

$60,231 volume-weighted sales price


0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2010

Avg.

Feb‐11

May‐11

Aug‐11

Nov

‐11

Feb‐12

May‐12

Aug‐12

Nov

‐12

Feb‐13

May‐13

Aug‐13

Nov

‐13

Feb‐14

May‐14

Aug‐14

Nov

‐14

Feb‐15

May‐15

Aug‐15

Nov

‐15

Feb‐16

May‐16

Aug‐16

Nov

‐16

Feb‐17

Dollars Per Gallon

Mon

thly Sales in

the United States

Clean Diesels ‐ All Models

U.S. Retail Diesel Price

U.S. Clean Diesel Vehicle Sales


3/23/2017 116

19 models – Feb. 2017$50,797 volume-weighted sales price

Y-T-D sales down 51.68 percent compared to 2016.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1999

Avg.

2003

Avg.

2007

Avg.

Jan‐10

May‐10

Sep‐10

Jan‐11

May‐11

Sep‐11

Jan‐12

May‐12

Sep‐12

Jan‐13

May‐13

Sep‐13

Jan‐14

May‐14

Sep‐14

Jan‐15

May‐15

Sep‐15

Jan‐16

May‐16

Sep‐16

Jan‐17

Percen

t of Total

Mon

thly Sales in

the United States

Battery Electric Vehicles PHEVs

Clean Diesels CNG Vehicles

Hybrids Percent of Total Vehicle Sales

U.S. Alt. Vehicle Sales – Percent of TotalSources: EIA & Hybridcars.com

3/23/2017 117

Sales market share rises from 3.18 to 3.27 percent.

34,222

19,679

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Jan‐06

Jun‐06

Nov

‐06

Apr‐07

Sep‐07

Feb‐08

Jul‐0

8Dec‐08

May‐09

Oct‐09

Mar‐10

Aug‐10

Jan‐11

Jun‐11

Nov

‐11

Apr‐12

Sep‐12

Feb‐13

Jul‐1

3Dec‐13

May‐14

Oct‐14

Mar‐15

Aug‐15

Jan‐16

Jun‐16

Nov

‐16

New Vehicle Sales

Used Vehicle SalesSources: National Automobile Dealers Association data and California Energy Commission analysis.

U.S. Light Duty Vehicles – Weighted Sales Price

3/23/2017 118

New vehicles averaged $34,222 in January 2017, 0.7 percent higher than previous year.

Used vehicles averaged $19,679 in January 2017, 8.9 percent higher than previous year.

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Jan‐06

Jun‐06

Nov

‐06

Apr‐07

Sep‐07

Feb‐08

Jul‐0

8Dec‐08

May‐09

Oct‐09

Mar‐10

Aug‐10

Jan‐11

Jun‐11

Nov

‐11

Apr‐12

Sep‐12

Feb‐13

Jul‐1

3Dec‐13

May‐14

Oct‐14

Mar‐15

Aug‐15

Jan‐16

Jun‐16

Nov

‐16

All New ‐ Sales Volume Weighted

Hybrid ‐ Sales Volume Weighted

PHEV ‐ Sales Volume Weighted

Diesel ‐ Sales Volume Weighted

BEV ‐ Sales Volume Weighted

CNG ‐ Sales Volume Weighted

Sources: National Automobile DealersAssociation,HybridCars.com monthly sales dashboard data , and California Energy Commission analysis.

U.S. Light Duty Vehicles – New vs. Alternative

3/23/2017 119

Hybrid vehicle sales prices are consistently tracking lower than average vehicle sales prices, a contributing factor along with greater model availability for the 58.9 percent market share among alternative-fueled vehicles over the last 12 months.

Next Meeting – April 20, 2017

Black-throated Sparrow, Cactus Loop Trail, Anza-Borrego Desert SP, CA 3/9/17

3/23/2017 120

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