real-time management of irrigation facilities in the sevier river basin

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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin

by:by:

Mac McKee, DirectorMac McKee, Director

andand

Abedalrizq KhalilAbedalrizq KhalilGraduate ResearchGraduate ResearchAssistantAssistant

Utah Water ResearchUtah Water Research LaboratoryLaboratoryUtah State UniversityUtah State University

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Abedalrizq Khalil:Abedalrizq Khalil:

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Overview:Overview:

• about the Sevier Basinabout the Sevier Basin

• the Sevier River Water Users databasethe Sevier River Water Users database

• development of real-time management modelsdevelopment of real-time management models

• implementationimplementation

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The Sevier River Basin…The Sevier River Basin…

N

0 5 10 15 20

Statute Miles

Garfield Co.

Kane Co.

Iron Co.

Iron Co.

Garfield

Co.

Piute Co.

Garfield Co.

Beaver Co.

Piute Co.

Beaver Co.

Sanpete Co.

Millard Co.

Sanpete Co.

Juab Co.

Juab Co.

Millard Co.

Juab Co.

Tooele Co.

Millard Co.

Beaver Co.

Gunnison Bend

Reservoir

DMAD

Reservoir

Sevier

Bridge

Reservoir

Rocky Ford

Reservoir

Koosharem

Reservoir

Piute

Reservoir

Otter

Cr.

Res.

Delta

Fillmore

Richfield

Salina

Panguitch

Sevier

Lake

San Pitch River

Otter Creek

Sevier River

Sevier

River

Sevier

River

Utah

d70

d 70

d 15

d15

d50

d50

d50

d4

d 89

d89

d 89

East Fork Sevier River

Sevier

River

• about 12.5% of the area of Utahabout 12.5% of the area of Utah

• arid climatearid climate

• flows to a terminal lakeflows to a terminal lake

• surface water is mostly used for surface water is mostly used for irrigationirrigation

• managed by a single entity, the managed by a single entity, the Sevier River Water UsersSevier River Water Users

• has been heavily instrumentedhas been heavily instrumented

• many diversion/release many diversion/release structures are remotely structures are remotely controlled via the webcontrolled via the web

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The Sevier River Basin: Piute ReservoirThe Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir

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The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir releasesThe Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir releases

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The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir outlet controls (replaced)The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir outlet controls (replaced)

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The Sevier River Basin: automated controls for canal diversionsThe Sevier River Basin: automated controls for canal diversions

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RichfieldRichfieldCanalCanaldiversiondiversionstructurestructure

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The Sevier River Basin: canal flow monitoringThe Sevier River Basin: canal flow monitoring

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The Sevier River Basin:The Sevier River Basin:weather stationweather station

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Data and Information: The Sevier River Water UsersData and Information: The Sevier River Water Users

Web-based Web-based dissemination of dissemination of informationinformation

www.sevierriver.org

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Reservoir Reservoir volumes…volumes…

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Reservoir Reservoir discharges and discharges and elevations…elevations…

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River and canal River and canal flow conditions…flow conditions…

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Using only raw data, available on a near real-time basis, theUsing only raw data, available on a near real-time basis, theSevier River Water Users have:Sevier River Water Users have:

• achieved substantial improvement in system efficiencyachieved substantial improvement in system efficiency

• greatly improved management during recent years of greatly improved management during recent years of drought for many canal companiesdrought for many canal companies

• reduced water disputes, especially upper basin versus reduced water disputes, especially upper basin versus lower basinlower basin

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Availability of raw data could also make analysis possible:Availability of raw data could also make analysis possible:

• development and application of near real-time development and application of near real-time operations models, especially for system components operations models, especially for system components with long travel timeswith long travel times

o canal diversionscanal diversionso reservoir releasesreservoir releases

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Applications to date:Applications to date:

• six-month ahead forecasts of monthly flows at Hatchsix-month ahead forecasts of monthly flows at Hatch

• 24-hour forecasts of flows on Clear Creek24-hour forecasts of flows on Clear Creek

• daily operations of Sevier Valley/Piute Canaldaily operations of Sevier Valley/Piute Canal

• daily operations of Piute Reservoirdaily operations of Piute Reservoir

• hourly operations of Piute Reservoirhourly operations of Piute Reservoir

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%2

#0

kj

GF

^

LOWER SEVIER

MIDDLE SEVIERSEVIER LAKE

UPPER SEVIER

EAST FORK SEVIER

Sevier River Basin and SnoTel Stations

0 10 20 305Miles

π

GF SnoTel Station at Harris Flat

^ SnoTel Station at Kimberly Mine

SnoTel Station at Midway Valley

Flow Gages

kj Flow at Sevier River at Hatch

%2 Vermilion Canal

#0 Clear Creek at Sevier

Sevier River

Piute Reservoir

%2

#0

kj

GF

^

LOWER SEVIER

MIDDLE SEVIERSEVIER LAKE

UPPER SEVIER

EAST FORK SEVIER


0 10 20 305Miles

π

GF SnoTel Station at Harris Flat

^ SnoTel Station at Kimberly Mine

SnoTel Station at Midway Valley

Flow Gages

kj Flow at Sevier River at Hatch

%2 Vermilion Canal

#0 Clear Creek at Sevier

Sevier River

Piute Reservoir

%2

#0

kj

GF

^

MIDDLE SEVIER

EAST FORK SEVIER

LOWER SEVIER

UPPER SEVIER


0 3 61.5

Miles

%2

#0

kj

GF

^

MIDDLE SEVIER

EAST FORK SEVIER

LOWER SEVIER

UPPER SEVIER


0 3 61.5

Miles

The Sevier River Basin…The Sevier River Basin…

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Modeling of Piute Reservoir Releases:Modeling of Piute Reservoir Releases:

meet water orders,minimize spills

Piute Reservoir

Vermillion“Reservoir”

ClearCreek

Sevier Valley/Piute Canal

JosephCanal

ElsinoreCanal

RichfieldCanal

VermillionCanal

Monroe/SouthBend Canal

MonroeCanal

BrooklynCanal

AnnabellaCanal

• hourly modelhourly model

• forecast, hour-by-hour, the forecast, hour-by-hour, the reservoir release recommended to reservoir release recommended to meet downstream canal diversionsmeet downstream canal diversions

• capture and report information capture and report information about uncertainty of the forecast about uncertainty of the forecast releaserelease

• learn from mistakes and improve learn from mistakes and improve future forecastsfuture forecasts


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Modeling approaches:Modeling approaches:

• ““intelligent systems” approach (versus physically based)intelligent systems” approach (versus physically based)

• several methods examined:several methods examined: neural netsneural nets ““lazy learners”lazy learners” methods from statistical learning theory: support vector methods from statistical learning theory: support vector

machines; relevance vector machinesmachines; relevance vector machines

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Problems encountered:Problems encountered:

• annual hydrologic changes make pattern recognition very annual hydrologic changes make pattern recognition very difficultdifficult

• farmers can’t make up their mindsfarmers can’t make up their minds

• farmers, ditch riders, and canal operators hedge their betsfarmers, ditch riders, and canal operators hedge their bets

• reservoir operators don’t listen to them, anywayreservoir operators don’t listen to them, anyway

The methods we are using must be able to recognizeThe methods we are using must be able to recognizepatterns in order to provide a reliable prediction of howpatterns in order to provide a reliable prediction of howmuch water to release/divert, and they should be smartmuch water to release/divert, and they should be smartenough to retrain themselves when their predictions enough to retrain themselves when their predictions become poor.become poor.

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Inputs“Novelty” Detection State PredictionState Prediction

No

Perform Model Selection

Update decision rule (RVM)

Feature Extraction

Yes

Ad

aptive S

imu

lated A

nn

ealing

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Input data:Input data:

• Data that reflect the physical forces that cause water Data that reflect the physical forces that cause water demands and streamflow in tributary streams to demands and streamflow in tributary streams to fluctuate throughout the day and from one day to the fluctuate throughout the day and from one day to the next are utilized (13 total inputs, each hour): next are utilized (13 total inputs, each hour):

hourly total solar radiationhourly total solar radiation

previous-day hourly streamflowprevious-day hourly streamflow

precipitationprecipitation

air temperatureair temperature

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Model Selection…Model Selection…

The influence of The influence of the “the “distracted distracted variables”variables” is is suppressed by suppressed by very low very low estimates of their estimates of their corresponding corresponding scale parameter, scale parameter, . .

Input dimension

Norm

alize

d s

cale

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0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

1-Apr-0316-Apr-031-May-0316-May-0331-May-0315-Jun-0330-Jun-0315-Jul-0330-Jul-0314-Aug-0329-Aug-0313-Sep-0328-Sep-0313-Oct-0328-Oct-0312-Nov-03

Hourly reservoir release (cfs)

__Predicted interval

Observed

Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (no “drift” correction)Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (no “drift” correction)

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Detection of system “drift”…Detection of system “drift”…

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Predicted interval

Observed

Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (with “drift” correction)Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (with “drift” correction)

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Time

Scaled R

eleases

(cfs)

P

impress them with lots of colors…impress them with lots of colors…

Uncertainty estimate and displays…Uncertainty estimate and displays…

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Residuals can Residuals can be used to be used to judge model judge model performance performance

-3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

Standard Normal Quantiles

Quantiles of Input Sample

QQ Plot of Sample Data versus Standard Normal

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What comes next:What comes next:

• programming the “model” as a stand-alone package--programming the “model” as a stand-alone package--happening nowhappening now

• ““blind” testing the package against 2004 data--happening blind” testing the package against 2004 data--happening nownow

• implement on the Sevier River Water Users web site--implement on the Sevier River Water Users web site--Roger Hansen wants to hook the model up to the Piute Roger Hansen wants to hook the model up to the Piute Reservoir gate controllersReservoir gate controllers

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Visit us at: http://www.engineering.usu.edu/uwrl/Visit us at: http://www.engineering.usu.edu/uwrl/

or contact: Mac McKee, 435-797-3188, [email protected]

real-time management of irrigation facilities in the sevier river basin

Documents

sevier river water usersriver

sevier river water usershas

webthe sevier river

thesevier river water

terminal lakesurface

upper basin

canal operators

canal flow conditionsusing