real estate fundaments “the facts of life” real estate fundamentals the facts of life
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Real Estate Fundaments
“The Facts of Life”
![Page 3: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Real Estate FundamentalsThe facts of Life
![Page 4: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
UNEMPLOYMENT AND RETAIL SALES
![Page 5: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
NOI forecast to decline 15% peak to trough
![Page 6: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
National Office Direct Class A Asking Rental Rates
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
4Q09
CBD
Non-CBD
![Page 7: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
National Office CBD & Non-CBD Overall Absorption
7
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000* 2001* 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009**
CBD
Non-CBD
![Page 8: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
US Sales Volumes by Property Type 2007 - 2009
$51.5
$83.6
$61.4
$101.4
$208.2
$21.9
$12.1
$21.0
$38.3
$52.9
$3.5
$2.0
$3.5
$4.7
$5.6
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
Industrial
Hotel
Retail
Apartment
Office
Dollar Volume (billions)
2007 2008 2009Q2
![Page 9: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
NCREIF CAP RATES
![Page 10: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
CRE prices down 43% peak to date
![Page 11: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
CRE Debt Maturities and Equity Gap
![Page 12: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Mirror, mirror on the wall….
• Mark Buono, Managing Director, Goldman, Sachs & Co.
• David Dorros, Managing Director, CB Richard Ellis
• Michael McDonald, Managing Director, Eastdil Secured, LLC
• Peter Muoio, Senior Principal, Maximus Advisors
• Marc Rosenberg, Executive Vice President, Cushman & Wakefield
![Page 13: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
U.S. Market Cycles CBD Office - Major Mkts (2009)
13
Growth Weakening
LA Central
Boston, Houston, Washington, D.C.
Market Equilibrium
Philadelphia
RecoveringSlow Growth
DallasDowntown NY, Minneapolis
Midtown Manhattan, San Francisco, Seattle,
![Page 14: Real Estate Fundaments “The Facts of Life” Real Estate Fundamentals The facts of Life](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062719/56649ef45503460f94c06b20/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
CBRE thinks we might be 80% thru the cycle…