2016 prime residential real estate market - knight frank · prime residential real estate market...

6
HIGHLIGHTS High activity of developers. 15 complexes were put on the market since the beginning of 2016, 4 of them were reserved for private sale. Thus, the number of flats and apartments for sale rose by 19% within 2016 despite the high pace of sales over the past year. Rising number of projects with fit-out. There had only been 4 properties with fit-out on the primary market at the end of 2015, while there were already 10 complexes with fitted out flats and apartments in December 2016. Increasing demand. The primary market evidenced 12% more transactions in 2016 than a year earlier. The shift of interest to smaller lots with more ergonomic layouts. The average size of flats and apartments sold in 2016 shrank by 10% to be equal to 125 sq m. Forecast. We expect that the high pace of launch campaigns of new facilities will be maintained in 2017. If so, about 20 new projects can be introduced in the prime segment. The geography of new projects is diverse: the add-on is expected in historically prime districts such as Ostozhenka-Prechistenka, Patriarshiye Prudy, Khamovniki. Furthermore, new projects will approach the market in less traditional districts of prime development – Zamoskvorech'e, Ramenki. The average price of the supply may most likely show a negative trend, but only due to changes in the supply structure – the entry of less expensive supply at the initial construction stage to the market. RESEARCH PRime ResiDenTial REAL ESTATE maRKeT moscow 2016

Upload: others

Post on 15-Jun-2020

8 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 2016 PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT - Knight Frank · PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT moscow 2016. P RiMe ResiDeNtial R eal estate aR Ket. M OscOW 2016 ReseaRcH 2 3 Ljublino

HigHligHts � High activity of developers. 15 complexes were put on the market since the beginning of 2016, 4 of them were reserved for private sale.

Thus, the number of flats and apartments for sale rose by 19% within 2016 despite the high pace of sales over the past year.

� Rising number of projects with fit-out. There had only been 4 properties with fit-out on the primary market at the end of 2015, while there were already 10 complexes with fitted out flats and apartments in December 2016.

� Increasing demand. The primary market evidenced 12% more transactions in 2016 than a year earlier.

� The shift of interest to smaller lots with more ergonomic layouts. The average size of flats and apartments sold in 2016 shrank by 10% to be equal to 125 sq m.

� Forecast. We expect that the high pace of launch campaigns of new facilities will be maintained in 2017. if so, about 20 new projects can be introduced in the prime segment. The geography of new projects is diverse: the add-on is expected in historically prime districts such as Ostozhenka-Prechistenka, Patriarshiye Prudy, Khamovniki. Furthermore, new projects will approach the market in less traditional districts of prime development – Zamoskvorech'e, Ramenki. The average price of the supply may most likely show a negative trend, but only due to changes in the supply structure – the entry of less expensive supply at the initial construction stage to the market.

ReseaRcH

PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT moscow

2016

Page 2: 2016 PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT - Knight Frank · PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT moscow 2016. P RiMe ResiDeNtial R eal estate aR Ket. M OscOW 2016 ReseaRcH 2 3 Ljublino

ReseaRch2016pRime Residential Real estate maRket. moscow

32

Ljublino

Izmajlovo

Mar'ino

Perovo

Krylatskoe

Можайский

Pechatniki

Danilovskiy

Ochakovo-Matveevskoe

Lefortovo

Kuz'minki

Zuzino

Basmannyj

Khoroshevskiy

Ryazanskiy

Filevskiy Park

Dorogomilovo

Nagorniy

Troparevo-Nikulino

Nagatinskij Zaton

Nizhegorodskij

Sokolinaja Gora

Begovoy

CheremushkiObruchevskiy

Gagarinskiy

Kotlovka

Fili-Davydkovo

Tekstil'shhiki

Meshhanskij

Nagatino-Sadovniki

Akademicheskiy

Новогиреево

Marina Roshcha

Krasnosel'skij

Juzhnoportovyj

Lomonosovski

Prospekt Vernadskogo

10.0% 12.7%

12.9% 7.2%2.2% 0.6%

1.0% 1.0%

3.8% 7.5%

5.6% 1.9%

6.4% 12.7%

8.8% 6.5%

0.2% 3.3%

15.4% 12.0%

11.7% 22.7%

2.6% 0.3%

8.3% 7.0%

11.1% 4.6%

Presnensky

SretenkaTverskoy

Patriarch's Ponds

Chistye Prudy

Tagansky

Zamoskvorech'e

Yakimanka

DonskoyRamenki

Khamovniki

Ostozhenka–Prechistenka

Pluschikha

Arbat

6

3

4

1

211

108

5

9 7

Part in the total

supply

Flats

Apartments

Part in the total number of transactions

12.9% 7.2%

> 11.5%

5–11.5%< 5%

2,150 flats and apartments were listed for sale at the primary market as of the beginning of 2017, which is 19% higher than a year earlier. The total area of supply was equal to 278.8 thousand sq m as of the start of 2017, the supply volume was 11% up over the past year.

The supply growth was primarily caused by the high activity of developers: official sales were opened in 11 residential complexes for 2016, in fact, private sales were started in other 4 projects. the remarkable thing was that 6 of 11 new facilities consisted of flats. new apartment complexes were mainly represented by club format properties (up to 50 lots), the exception was Tverskaya Residence, where there were 170 apartments. 3 projects out of 6 in the segment of flats were represented by houses with few flats (50–100 lots) or large facilities (more than 100 lots).

The number of flats for sale increased by one third – from 940 to 1,250 lots, while the number of apartments remained at the same level.

40% of the total supply were focused in 3 districts:

� Ramenki (15.4%);

� Tverskoy district (12.9%);

� Khamovniki (11.7%).

The Top-3 leaders rating underwent certain changes during the year. arbat district left the Top-3 and stepped down from the second to fourth position in the ranking due to changes in the supply structure: part of the supply of stars of arbat complex was withdrawn from the market in order to make fit-out and further let out on long-term lease.

supply

Title Location (district) Format Number of lots Start of sales Announced

commissioning date

1 Bunin 37, Pluschikha st (Pluschikha) flats 29 march Q4 2017

2 Residentsiya na Pokrovsky boulevard 5, Pokrovsky Blvd (Chistye Prudy) apartments 45 april Q3 2018

3 Tverskaya Residence 6, 2nd Brestskaya st (Tverskoy) apartments 114 July Q4 2016

4 RenOme 24, novoslobodskaya st (Tverskoy) flats 152 July Q1 2019

5 Khlebny Dom 19, Khlebny lane (arbat) flats 14 august Q4 2017

6 malaya Ordynka 19 19, malaya Ordynka st (Zamoskvorech'e) flats 67 september Q2 2019

7 Clubhouse at Kosmodamianskaya 38, bld. 3, Kosmodamianskaya emb. (Zamoskvorech'e) flats 22 september Q4 2016

8 nabokov 10/1, Kursovoy lane (Ostozhenka-Prechistenka) apartments 15 October Q1 2017

9 Zhizn' na Pluschikhe 2/3, Pogodinskaya st (Pluschikha) flats 202 november Q4 2019

10 Cloud nine 9, Bolshaya Polyanka st (Yakimanka) apartments 45 December Q4 2018

11 il Ricco 11, Podsosensky lane (Chistye Prudy) apartments 11 December Q4 2017

source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

Properties entered the market in 2016

Page 3: 2016 PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT - Knight Frank · PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT moscow 2016. P RiMe ResiDeNtial R eal estate aR Ket. M OscOW 2016 ReseaRcH 2 3 Ljublino

prime residential real estate market. moscow

4

Primary market supply structure

source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

Primary market supply in different construction stages

supply of primary flats and apartments of high-budget segment based on their price

supply of primary flats and apartments of high-budget segment based on their area

34%28%8%30%Already deliveredFit-out worksGroundbreaking stage In-situ concreting

25%10%

19%

4%

42%

41%

15%

39%

3%

2%

Up to 100 sq m100–149 sq m150–199 sq m200–249 sq mMore than 250 sq m

Flats Apartments

25%

31%

5%4%

35%

32%

2%

26%

34%

6%

Up to 50 mln rub.50–100 mln rub.100–200 mln rub.200–300 mln rub.More than 300 mln rub.

Flats Apartments

Up to 50 mln rub.

50–100mln rub.

100–150mln rub.

150–200mln rub.

200–250mln rub.

250–300mln rub.

More than 300mln rub.

Up to 100 sq m

100–149 sq m

150–199 sq m

200–249 sq m

More than 250 sq m

22.1% 8.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

6.0% 21.3% 10.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%

0.1% 4.5% 7.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1%

0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 2.7% 0.8% 1.2% 0.8%

0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 2.0%

The leader was changed also: the high pace of sales in Khamovniki district led to a reduction in the supply volume despite the fact that the new phase of sadovye Kvartaly was launched in 2016, where there were 86 flats in buildings 2.1–2.4. thus, the largest share of the primary market supply was located in Khamovniki (17%) in December 2015, but now the district only closes the Top-3 by the supply volume with its share of 11%.

The bulk of the supply (58%) consisted of lots with an area up to 150 sq m in the budget of 100 million rubles as of early 2017.

The supply of facilities in the groundbreaking stage increased from 11% in December 2015 to 30% in 2016, which was primarily due to an active entry of new projects in zero cycle to the market, such as malaya Ordynka, 19, Residence at Pokrovsky Boulevard, life on Plyushchikha and so on.

the following complexes were delivered in 2016:

� sovetnik;

� mOne Residence;

� Pekin Gardens;

� Rassvet (1st phase)

� Wine House;

� Clubhouse at Kosmodamianskaya.

Page 4: 2016 PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT - Knight Frank · PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT moscow 2016. P RiMe ResiDeNtial R eal estate aR Ket. M OscOW 2016 ReseaRcH 2 3 Ljublino

ReseaRch2016

5

2016 dymanics of number of transactions

source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

2016 transactions with flats and apartments of the primary market based on their area

2016 transactions with flats and apartments of the primary market based on their price

25%5%

17%

5% 5%

48%

53%

14%

27%

1%

Up to 100 sq m100–149 sq m150–199 sq m200–249 sq mMore than 250 sq m

Flats Apartments

21%

14%

6%4%

55%

52%

11%

1%2%

34%

Up to 50 mln rub.50–100 mln rub.100–200 mln rub.200–300 mln rub.More than 300 mln rub.

Flats Apartments

the primary market witnessed 724 trans-actions with flats and apartments by the end of the year, which was 12% up against 2015. the total area of all sold lots reached over 90 thousand sq m during January–December 2016.

the average budget of a transaction was 17% down year-on-year and amounted to 87 million rubles by the end of 2016. Buyers leant toward more compact lots with ergonomic planning solutions in 2016. Thus, the average area of flats and apart- ments sold fell from 138 sq m in 2015 to 125 sq m in January-December 2016.

the average budget of transactions with flats was fixed at the level of 100 million rubles by the end of 2016 and at 67 million rubles in the segment of apartments. the average budget in the segments of flats and apartments declined by 23% and 6%, respectively, compared to 2015.

Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100pcs

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Page 5: 2016 PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT - Knight Frank · PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT moscow 2016. P RiMe ResiDeNtial R eal estate aR Ket. M OscOW 2016 ReseaRcH 2 3 Ljublino

ReseaRch2016pRime Residential Real estate maRket. moscow

76

Ljublino

Izmajlovo

Mar'ino

Perovo

Krylatskoe

Можайский

Pechatniki

Danilovskiy

Ochakovo-Matveevskoe

Lefortovo

Kuz'minki

Zuzino

Basmannyj

Khoroshevskiy

Ryazanskiy

Filevskiy Park

Dorogomilovo

Nagorniy

troparevo-Nikulino

Nagatinskij Zaton

Nizhegorodskij

Sokolinaja Gora

Begovoy

CheremushkiObruchevskiy

Gagarinskiy

Kotlovka

Fili-Davydkovo

Tekstil'shhiki

Meshhanskij

Nagatino-Sadovniki

Akademicheskiy

Marina Roshcha

Krasnosel'skij

Juzhnoportovyj

Lomonosovski

Prospekt VernadskogoDynamics of average

price

Average weighted prime residential

sale price

-29%

-1%

-27%

-6%

-23%

0%

-11%

-14%

+12%

+3%

+53%

+3%

+4%

+13%

+9%

647 thousand rub./sq m

508 thousand rub./sq m

1,041 thousand rub./sq m

1,520 thousand rub./sq m

767 thousand rub./sq m

624 thousand rub./sq m

827 thousand rub./sq m

473 thousand rub./sq m

718 thousand rub./sq m

1,526 thousand rub./sq m

996 thousand rub./sq m

522 thousand rub./sq m

803 thousand rub./sq m

612 thousand rub./sq m

785 thousand rub./sq m

> 1 mln rub./sq m

700–1,000 thousand rub./sq m

< 700 thousand rub./sq m

Presnensky

SretenkaTverskoy

Patriarch's Ponds

Chistye Prudy

Tagansky

Zamoskvorech'e

Yakimanka

DonskoyRamenki

Khamovniki

Ostozhenka–Prechistenka

Pluschikha

Arbat

9% drop of the average sale price of the primary market was registered against last year's figure and was fixed at 785 thousand rub./sq m by the end of 2016. interestingly, the key drop of this mid-market figure was recorded at the beginning of the year. One of the reasons of such downward trend was the adjustment of prices in Knightsbridge Private park where dollar prices were cut by 30–40% in February 2016. The next reason was the new supply in Vorob’ev Dom Residential Complex in February-march last year.

This figure was relatively stable within april-October, there was even an increase of a few percent in some months. The mid-market index did not show considerable fall despite the entry of new supply, as the prices for complexes in the active stages of implementation were marked up by developers due to changes in the stage of construction readiness and performance of sales target.

Top-3 districts with the highest average price of the supply:

� Patriarshiye Prudy;

� Ostozhenka-Prechistenka;

� arbat.

The list of leaders got changed in some way for the year. Khamovniki was withdrawn from the list of the most expensive districts due to the price cutting in Knightsbridge Private Park, as well as due to the entry of new supply in sadovye Kvartaly residential complex.

Tverskoy district witnessed the largest decline in 2016, where the price of the supply shrank by 29% and was fixed at 647 thousand rub./sq m. the negative dynamics of the average price in this district was related to the launch of new projects. thus, the start of sales in Tverskaya Residence and RenOme – new major complexes – was announced in Tverskoy district in 2016.

the average price for flats reached a total of 766 thousand rub./sq m at the year-end, indicating 20% fall, while 7% uprise of the price for apartments amounted to 918 thousand rub./sq m. This is an unconventional situation for the market as a year ago the price for flats was a quarter higher than the price for apartments, now it is 6% less. such upward adjustment for the price of apartments is incidental to the change of the supply structure. For example, the entrance of Cloud nine and nabokov complexes to the market had the strongest influence on such price rise. Both facilities offer their buyers apartments with high quality fit-out. moreover, the price escalation was recorded in complexes in the active stages of implementation, such as Balchug Viewpoint, Balchug Residence, sovremennik et cetera.

commercial terms

Dynamics of the average price in primary market

source: Knight Frank Research, 2017

January600

650

700

750

800

850

900

2015 2016

thousand rub. /sq m

February March April May June July August September October November DecemberDecember

Page 6: 2016 PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT - Knight Frank · PRime ResiDenTial Real estate maRKeT moscow 2016. P RiMe ResiDeNtial R eal estate aR Ket. M OscOW 2016 ReseaRcH 2 3 Ljublino

prime residential real estate market. moscow

8

ReseaRch2016

© Knight Frank LLP 2017 – this overview is published for general information only. although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, view and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Research or Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. as a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects.

Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank.

ReSeARcHOlga YaskoDirector, Russia & Cis [email protected]

ReSIdeNTIALAlexey TreshchevHead of Department [email protected]

+7 (495) 981 0000

malaya Ordynka 1919, malaya Ordynka st

Pavlovo 1novorizhskoe highway, 14

RiverwalkUK, london, Westminster, sW1P

Bunin37, Pluschikha st

Zhukovka 3Rublevo-Uspenskoe highway, 8

supermarket on the border with switzerland6.36% yield