100531 davos ws fekete - global risk forum grf davos 01, 2010 · 28.05.2010 bbk referat ii.4...

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Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level

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SUN 2.1 + 2.5 (ID 666) International Disaster and Risk Conference, IDRC Davos 2010

Dr. Alexander FeketeFederal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany

KritisKAT

University of Würzburg

Background 1: Multiple Risks

Multiple hazard and risk assessment

Contents:• Landslide and Earthquake • Landuse• Infrastructure

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Method: GIS, Remote Sensing

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UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY –Institute for Environment and Human

Background 2: Social Vulnerability

Security

Social and Infrastructure Flood Vulnerability Index

Composed of:•Social Susceptibility / Capacities•Infrastructure density•Exposure to floods

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Method: Statistics, GISData: Census data of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany,Statistical extreme event scenarios of river-flood areas

Project KritisKAT

Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany 2009 - 2012

C t t

• A concept for criticality assessment• Criticality criteria

Deliverables

• Identification of infrastructures critical for society• Assessment of impacts due to outages

Content

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• Development of protection levels

• Criticality criteria

Mid-term goal

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http://www.wottreng.ch/hieroglyphen.jpg

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Golvin 2006

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Harris 2003

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mt_Vesuvius_79_AD_eruption_3.svg

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Critical for You

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• http://www.flughafen-zuerich.ch/desktopdefault.aspx• http://www.panoramio.com/photo/24524356• http://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/cms_media/module_bi/2159/1079690_0_org_46935752_gallery.jpg

Inter- Dependencies

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• http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-events.html• spiegel.de• pixelio.de

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Criticality is revealed in case of a failureCriticality is revealed in case of a failure, when services and resources are suddenly not available anymore.

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Critical Mass

• First nuclear reactor in Germany: Haigerloch 1945

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Fekete 2010

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Terminology

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Source: http://www.visualthesaurus.com/ 10. Nov. 2009

CIP - definition

Critical infrastructures (CI) include organizations and

systems that have a major importance for the society

and that if disrupted would comprehensively affect supplyand that, if disrupted, would comprehensively affect supply

chains, public safety and could lead to further dramatic

consequences.

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Do you have Questions?Do you have Questions?

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International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)

Problem Framing

Criticality Analysis

Management Goals

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http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html

CI Priorities Evaluation

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Pre-Analysis

Step 1 Problem framing

Wh t i th bl ?What is the problem?

Who is the enduser of this analysis?

Which infrastructures are of interest?

What is the target group that is analysed?

Whi h i th ll t h it f i t t?

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Which is the smallest research unit of interest?

Which data is necessary / already there?

Interest scopes

Scale of the disaster

National

Decide onImpact type:• Human (Casualties,

livelihoods, …)• Economic• Symbolic…

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PersonalOne

company

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Infrastructure components

PhysicalPower polesTransmission lines

Step 2 Infrastructure components

Infrastructure consists of components

• visible• non visible

etc.

FunctionalOrganisational processesLawsQuality

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Fekete 2002 Iran

Example: Power Supply HumanStaffRepair teams…

"Choke points"

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Maritime Security, GAO-Bericht, 2007maps.google.de

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Virtual CI priority list

Country " Virtualania" CI priority list

- 2 major roads

Capitol City

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Davooos City

The Davos Congress Centre

Criticality factor:

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http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-center.html

http://sherwoodsf.wordpress.com/2008/01/28/heads-up-collaborative-solutions-from-davos/

http://www.idrc.info/photo-singleview.php?imaGe=FB08252008_6_2

timing

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Quality & Trust

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Fekete 2001

Logan Abassi UNDP Global. Haitian_national_palace_earthquake. Wikipedia.jpg


Country " Virtualania" CI priority list

- 2 major roads

- 1 ParliamentCapitol City - Davoos city (international

conferences 2 times a year

- Water quality

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Davooos City

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3 Criticality Criteria (3CC)

Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society?

When does something become critical?When does something become critical?

3 Criticality Criteria• Critical amount*• Critical timing**• Critical quality

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*Amount or % of services, assets, population affected)

**Speed of onset, duration of outage, Mean Time To Functionality


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Problem Framing


Management Goals

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Simplified criticality analysis

Relevant Hazard

Trigger Event

Other Infrastr.

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Society

Infrastructure

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The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework

Analysis Step

Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels

3aCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

3bCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

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3cCritical amountCritical timingCritical quality

Selection of the scale of analysis

Technical resilience

Th "4R"

Community resilience

Th "4E"The "4R"• Redundancy• Robustness• Resources• Rapidity

Lit. Tierney & Bruneau 2007

The "4E"• Engagement, • Education • Empowerment• Encouragement.

Lit. Edwards 2009

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Fekete 2001Source: IEA 2007: Oil Supply Security

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Identification of CI

Robust Element?Single Element?

Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg

The "4R of Resilience"• Redundancy• Robustness• Resources• Rapidity

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• Rapidity

Power stations and power grid in South Africa (source: http://www.ises.org/sepconew/Pages/CountryCaseStudySA/2.html

Resources to rapidly replace the functional ability?Lit.: Tierney and Bruneau

2007


Country "Virtualania"CI priority list- 2 major roads

- 1 ParliamentCapitol City

1 Parliament

- Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year

- Water quality

- 2 Transmission lines

- 3 Power connections with other countries

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Davooos City

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Analysis Step




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Interdependencies

Blackout

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http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf

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Analysis Step




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Impact level: population

Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg

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http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/destination/stadiums/stadium=5007759/index.html

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Cascading effects

04.11.20062006: intentional switch-off leads to dynamic instabilitydynamic instability

Communication error UCTE - NetUCTE = Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity)

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Quelle: UCTE (Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity)

Application: Vulcanic ash cloud 2010

Analysis Step

Criticality criteria 3 Impact levels

3a Initial29 % of

3a Initial infrastructure

international air traffic, 4 days

3b Dependent infrastructures

Industry, medical transport, …

3c Aff t d1,2 Mio.

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3c Affected population

passengers, per day

Source: International Herald Tribune 21.Apr.2010

What if – the eruption would have lasted 13 months?(as it did from 1821 to 1823)

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Problem Framing


Management Goals

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1 Parliament


- Water quality



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Davooos City

Limitations of using rare components

Single Point of Failure (SPOF) Mass Item Infrastructure • Decentralised• Many

redundancies• Interlinked

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Golvin 2006: Light house in Alexandria, 1st century b.c.

http://www.lindauer-fly.ch/Home%20Seite/Tower%20Zurich.jpg

http://media.sms.at/uploads/pics/icon_rot_handy_02.png

http://www.iconarchive.com/show/glaze-icons-by-mart/laptop-icon.htm

http://www.educate.ece.govt.nz/sitecore/content/F4S/Home/Challenge/F4SToolkit/~/media/F4S/Images/Artbox09/WaterBottle.jpgl11

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Limitations of a simplified analysis

Main Road to Mamfe, SouthWest Cameroon

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Corruption

Dependence of trade and supply

Hospital in 300km

Rain season

Limits of mono-causality

"Real disasters"• Combination of small failures

(Lovins & Lovins 1983)• Example: Blackout 2003 US • Surprise effect• Example: Levee effect (White

1945)

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Dimensions of inter-dependencies

Multiple Impact Reaction


Dependent components

Hazards

Impacted component

Affected population

Initial impacts

Impacts via infrastructure(s)

Other infrastructures

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Lit. on interdependencies: Rinaldi et al. 2001, Rose 2007, MSB 2009

Value for multiple hazards?

Value for dependency?

Value for impacts?

Research questions

Value for dependencies?

Fig. Fekete 2010

Priorities by time

Normal case• Immediate dependency

(15 minutes) highest on:

Disaster case• Immediate dependency

(15 minutes) highest on: ( ) g– Emergency response – Health care– Electricity– ICT

( ) g– Emergency response – Health care– Electricity– ICT – Water– Stability of buildings– Media

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Media– Transport

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Hierarchy of needs

Hierarchy of needs, Maslow (1943)

1 Immediate survival needs

Air, Water and FoodHealth care Search and Rescue Buildings

• Inter-dependencies

•Priorities of society

•Timing

Buildings

2 Additional survival needs

EnergyInformationTransport

3 Immediate SecurityAdministration / Police

4 Financial Security

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4 Financial SecurityFinance, Insurance, Economy

5 CultureScienceCultural heritage

Protection goals

• "Sustainability" (Brundtland 1987)

Abstract societal goals

• Global warming: 2°C• Sea-level rise: x meters

Sustainability (Brundtland 1987)

• "Living with risk"

Climate Change scenarios

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• "The loss of public telecommunication services in a region could last for up to five days."(Direct.gov.uk 2009 Loss of utilities and communications in an emergency)

UK infrastructure scenarios

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Protection goals

Rule of thumb for a disaster (Broemme, THW): "4 days, 10% of the population of a region"

Possible ways to identify thresholds:

• Capacities (hours of emergency power, up to 100.000 customers, affected persons...)

• Tolerance (Zero mortality, not more than X days, up to

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x Bio.€, …)

• Calculations (damage X expected for 5 days every 10 years)

3 different protection goal formulations

Analysis Step

Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels: Hypothetical protection goals

3a Initial infrastructure

Critical numberCritical timingCritical quality

3b Dependent infrastructures


"We need to prevent outages longer than X days for Y % of our services"

"We need to have capabilities to cope with outages longer than X days for Y % of our services"

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3c Affected population


"We need to be able to tolerate outages longer than X days for Y % of the population"

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Problem Framing


Management Goals

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CIP goals of the Federal Office (BBK)

StrategyGuiding policy concept

AnalysisAll-HazardAll-InfrastructuresInterdisciplinary

Cooperation / Participation

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Download:http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/DE/2009/kritis_englisch.html?nn=110428

Cross-sectoralFederal States / MunicipalitiesPrivate SectorScienceInternational

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Limits of protection

Full protection against all threats and cascadingFull protection against all threats and cascading effects is not possible

-> Priorisation of measures is necessary

Suggested Reading: • Apostolakis & Lemon 2005 A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure

Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism• Boin & McConnell 2007 Preparing for Critical Infrastructure Breakdowns. The Limits of CrisisManagement

d h N d f R ili

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and the Need for Resilience

Basic & special resilience

Baseline Protection

Cooperation

Special Protection

Recent Projects at BBK:j• Electricity (GRASB)• Gas & Oil (KritisGM)• Bridges and tunnels

(SKRIBT)

Special guidelines: H it l

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Hospitals, …

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Problem Framing


Management Goals

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Communication

CI Publications: General guidelines

Cooperation

Specific guidelines (for companies, hospitals, search & rescue teams…)

Academy: Seminars: application of the guidelines

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guidelinesInhouse Training Courses

Exercise: Nation-wide (LÜKEX) http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFil

e/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf

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Limits of communication

Sensitivity of data

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Summary - What is special about CI research?

• Only indirect impacts of service interruptions

• Cascading effects = different sources of impact

• External effects

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PhysicalPower polesTransmission lines

Step 2 Infrastructure components

Infrastructure consists of components

• visible• non visible

etc.

FunctionalOrganisational processesLawsQuality

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Fekete 2002 Iran

Example: Power Supply HumanStaffRepair teams…




1 Parliament


- Water quality



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Davooos City

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3 criticality criteria

Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society?

3 Criticality Criteria• Critical number• Critical timing*• Critical quality

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*(speed of onset, duration of outage, Mean Time To Functionality)

Fekete 2010


Analysis Step




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Open questions

Need for research on: • Threshold of criticality• Interdependencies• Societal priorities of needs• Protection goals as a societal process

• Capabilities of infrastructures (emergency response and other)

• Error tolerance of society

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y

Thank you for your attention

CI research activities at BBK:• Project KritisKAT (concept, criteria, all-CI)• Project KritisGM (gas- and oil)

Contact: Dr Alexander Fekete

KritisKAT

j (g )• Project GRASB (electricity) • Project SKRIBT (tunnels- and bridges).

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Dr. Alexander FeketeFederal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster AssistanceSection II.4 National Hazard Register; CIP ConceptsProvinzialstraße 9353127 Bonn Phone: 0228 99 550 3401Email: [email protected]

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Suggested Literature

• Critical Infrastructure Protection in Switzerland: http://www.bevoelkerungsschutz.admin.ch/internet/bs/en/home/themen/ski.html

• Tierney, Kathleen; Bruneau, Michel (2007). Conceptualizing and Measuring Resilience. A Key to Disaster Loss Reduction, TR News 250, 14-17

• Rinaldi, Steven M.; Peerenboom, James P.; Kelly, Terrence K. (2001). Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, Dec. 2001:11-25

• Rose, Adam (2007). Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions, Environmental Hazards 7 (2007) 383–398

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100531 davos ws fekete - global risk forum grf davos 01, 2010 · 28.05.2010 bbk referat ii.4...

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