"reaching voters where they are" - california labor federation microtargeting panel at...

Reaching Voters Where they Are:

THE SECRET TO CALIFORNIA LABOR’S WINNING MICROTARGETING STRATEGY

rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio

Million More Voters: An Overview

Reaching Voters Where They Are:



The 2012 Campaign: Our Approach




• The goal:– Continue relationship with disengaged progressives– Win on issues that MMV targets care about

• Questions: – What issue(s) do we focus on?– Who do we communicate with?– How do we reach them?– What do we say?

The 2012 MMV Approach


A Year of LearningPhase Date Who Finding

1. Exploratory Focus Groups

December 2011

Previous MMV

targets

“Make it clear that the initiative is deceptive and that corporate elites are using the initiative process to trick voters into giving them more power.”

2. Baseline Survey March 2012 Likely voters SuperPAC Expansion Act has greater uncertainty; Sales Tax Act has greater support.

3. Special Exemptions Focus Groups

April 2012 Likely voters “Exemption” beats “loophole”.

Best arguments :Cost, Unrestricted SuperPACs, Who’s Behind It

4. Special Exemptions Survey

May 2012 Likely voters

5. Microtargeting I June 2012 Likely voters Identify “persuadables”


A Year of LearningPhase Date Who Finding

6. Phone EIP August 2012 Persuasion targets “Special Exemptions Act” increases recall

7. Persuasion Messaging Survey

September 2012

Persuasion targets The best “villain” depends on party

8. Microtargeting II September 2012 Likely voters Update model; create model for TV watching

9. GOTV Messaging Survey

September 2012

GOTV targets

“Special Exemptions Act” matters for likelihood of voting

10. Post-Election Survey

November 2012

Persuasion targets Did it work?!


Taking it to the Field




Field Campaign At a GlancePaid program • 14 field offices• 13 week program• 500+ field organizers (increased to 800+ for GOTV)• More than 720,000 contacts, over half a million NO on

32 IDs

Volunteer program – Alliance for a Better California partners hosted phoning & walks statewide • Over 65 different locations by GOTV


Statewide Props 32/30 Vote by County

STATEWIDE VOTE

Prop NO YES

32 6,940,282 - 57% 5,328,207 - 43%

30 5,584,785 - 45% 6,902,562 - 55%

CaliforniaNov 2012Election

Prop 32

No

Yes

Prop 30

Yes

Norgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio

Field Campaign Components• Targeting & planning

• Convening & coordination of Alliance partners and allies with field programs

• Support & training for volunteer field programs of Alliance partners and allies

• Large-scale, paid direct voter contact operation

• Data collaboration and technology


Lessons Learned

• Statewide scale for a statewide issue is key

• Tailoring plan & program to individual strengths & capacities of participating organizations was very effective

• Close collaboration of Alliance partners with field programs made us stronger & more efficient – volunteer programs, data management, divvying up work

• Good modeling, messaging & ads to amplify our message helped tremendously


Direct Mail




Nothing 32 Mail MMV MailNo TV

Nothing 32 MailSome Mail

TVNo MailSome TV

Nothing 32 Mail TV Only

No TV

Rarely Watch TV

4+ Hours Daily TV

Oppose Undecided Support


Direct Mail Created for Low TV Watchers


Online Tools & Tactics




Look Familiar to Anyone?

Plus, 56% of women and 65% of men skip TV commercials!

• rgb/tng39521cwa/afl-cio

Why Digital? Media Consumption Shifts Towards Digital

Digital is now the third most popular news consumption medium.

Video is a large part of this consumption pattern and growing larger

Pew Internet “How Media Consumption has changed since 2000” 6.24.10Pew Internet “Demographics of internet users” May 2011

Online Video Behavior


Truly Integrated Targeting


• List Match: Swimming in the cookie pool– We didn’t approximate common targeting, we did it– List matching lets us customize ads, not shoot for lowest-

common denominator messaging like on TV

• Complementary display and banner ads– We got the impressions and impact we needed with the budget

we had

• Synchronous multi-channel communications– Online wasn’t a silo, and it wasn’t “new” media. It was an

interlocking piece of a broader voter contact program

Effective Ads for Our Targets


Effective Ads in Post-TV World• Moving past TV does NOT mean moving past video…

• It means connecting with the public where they are, not where we wish they were…

• The right ad creative delivered to the right audience produces real results.


Targeted outreach moved polling numbers

VOTER TARGETING WORKED: In late October, the under-35 demographic was behind in the polls. We used voter-file targeting to specifically isolate this group, and designed ad creative to appeal to a more youthful audience. This mirrored offline direct-mail efforts.

22% Swing: In the days following this change in strategy, we saw a movement of up to 22% in favorability for the NO side.


The 2012 Campaign: Results




Proposition 32 Recall


Proposition 32 Vote


How Many Voters Were Persuaded?

• MMV walk, phone, and mail persuasion accounts for about half the 1.64 million vote margin.

• Does not include online persuasion, GOTV, or network effects.

Mode Voters Contacted

Estimated Effect Net No Votes Percent of

Margin

MMV Walk 194,779 11.98% 46,669 2.8%

MMV Phone 556,837 4.07% 45,327 2.8%

MMV Mail 3,041,288 11.80% 717,744 43.7%

Total 3,792,904 — 809,740 49.3%


Questions?




"reaching voters where they are" - california labor federation microtargeting panel at...

Career