TERRITORIAL RE-NOVATION:

AN APPROACH

Shahid Solomon December 2012

CONTENTS

1. Paradigm of the Futurist

2. Why Territorial Re-novation?

3. A General Systems Model for Territorial Re-

Novation

4. Managing Territorial Transition

5. Working the Timeline

6. Seven Steps to Renovation

7. Bio

1. PARADIGM OF THE

FUTURIST

AN EARLY AND IMPORTANT

CHOICE TO MAKE

Feel Good Optimism (transcending risk)

Bright Side of Human Nature

Evolutionary Consciousness

Feel Bad Pessimism (extrapolating risk) Dark Side of Human Nature

Systemic Failure

Rational Optimism (managing risk) Power of Catallaxy: spontaneous order

created by exchange & specialisation (Hayek)

Desireability of Green Transition for Recapitalisation by Global Finance & Technology Multinationals

New Generational Values

Mobilising Power of Social Networking

1. WHY TERRITORIAL

RENOVATION?

TERRITORIES

Include: Regions, States, Cities, Towns,

Districts

TERRITORIES

Commonalities of territories

Systems: social, economic, infrastructure

etc.

Scale: Interlock with smaller and greater

territories (scale)

Transition: Globally progress through

transitions of energy, technology, spatial

structuring

CONCEPT OF RE-NOVATION

Starts with What We Have

Got

Past Aware

Future Engaged

Incremental

Pragmatic

FIVE INSIGHTS OF RE-

NOVATION

Insight # 1: All things are interconnected

Dealing constructively with change implies RE-NOVATION: new contracts of give and take.

Insight # 2: Current reality sets the agenda.

Re-novation starts with an assessment of what is currently working or not working.

Insight # 3: The past is gone… but we feel its momentum

Re-novation looks back in order to understand the present and frame the future.

Insight # 4: The future is imagined …but we feel its promise

By imagining and even designing a future, we can wrap that idea of a future around the current agenda and enlarge the envelope of re-novation.

Insight # 5: All things are interconnected on a moving timeline

Re-novation is a process of constant adaptation around the timeline that we build in our mind.

6. A GENERAL SYSTEMS

MODEL FOR

TERRITORIAL RE-

NOVATION

CAPITALS (WHAT WE HAVE GOT) AND

DRIVERS (WHAT CHANGES WHAT WE HAVE GOT)

MANAGING

TERRITORIAL

TRANSITION

WHY TRANSITION

Global Mega Cycles of Investment and Re-

investment led by energy-technology regimes

REALITIES OF TRANSITION

Blueprints don’t work

Real Transitions are messy, fuzzy & zig-zag

The (perceived) problems and the (partial)

solutions lie in manipulating systems that work

/ do not work and change in interconnected

ways

MANAGING TRANSITION

Drivers: Inside - Out: Population Growth

Workforce Capability

Competitive Advantage

Drivers: Outside - In: Power Blocs

Finance Capital

Networks

Energy

Technology

Generational Values

MANAGING TRANSITION

Levers: Deliberate Manipulation of Inside Out

Drivers By Government to Achieve a Desired

Future

State investment

State Regulation

Partnerships & Coalitions

Forging of rights and values

STATE LEVERAGE IS CRITICAL AT THE

MIDPOINT OF TRANSITION CYCLES

PLOTTING TIMELINE THROUGH INTER

LOCKING TERRITORIAL SCALE

7. SEVEN STEPS TO

TERRITORIAL RE- NOVATION

SEVEN STEPS

(1) Build a timeline.

(2) What’s working /not working

right now?

(3) How did we get here?

(4) Where do we want to be?

(5) How do we get there?

(6) What story do we build?

(7) What do we do next?

1)BUILD A TIMELINE WE DEVELOP THE CONCEPT OF PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE TIMELINE AND DEAL WITH

DISTANT, DEEP AND PROXIMATE TIME HORIZONS FOR THE TERRITORY

(2) WHAT’S WORKING /NOT WORKING RIGHT NOW? USING A SYSTEMS APPROACH WE EXPLORE WHAT’S WORKING AND WHAT’S NOT

WORKING NOW.

Economy

Social capital

Natural capital

Infrastructural Capital

Governance

3) HOW DID WE GET HERE? WE WORK BACK FROM THE PRESENT THROUGH OUR PAST TO UNDERSTAND HOW THE SYSTEMS

EVOLVED, LOOKING AT BOTH HOW THE WORLD CHANGED AND HOW CHOICES WERE MADE

(4) WHERE DO WE WANT TO BE? WE REVIEW OR GENERATE ON HOW THE WORLD IS LIKELY TO CHANGE, EXPLORE

POSSIBLE FUTURES AND SKETCH OUT A PLAUSIBLE TERRITORIAL FUTURE WE BELIEVE

THAT WE CAN CREATE.

TERRITORIAL SCENARIO GENERATION IS A BALANCING ACT

BETWEEN

Likely or possible context scenarios over which there is no control

Possible territorial scenarios over which there is some control

Systemic feedback loops between the above

The need for simplicity

BALANCING ACT: LIKELY OR POSSIBLE

CONTEXT SCENARIOS OVER WHICH

THERE IS NO CONTROL

Links world scale scenarios, to contintental, state, bio region, city region,

urban and rural scenarios

Ideally reduced to a central tendency or “most likely” context scenario so

as to reduce the range of possibilities

Generates outside-in Drivers

The concept of transition greatly simplifies this task

Context scenarios set the scene for the specific territorial scenarios

BALANCING ACT : POSSIBLE

TERRITORIAL SCENARIOS OVER

WHICH THERE IS SOME CONTROL

Models inside-out Drivers

Reactive Response and/or

Pro-active Opportunism (Levers)

BALANCING ACT: THE NEED FOR

SIMPLICITY

Understanding and engagement from all types

of role players

Focussing policy and decision making

(4) CONTINUED : CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-

LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:

Deductive Methodologies:

Probabilistic Forecasting

Imaginative projection (crystal balling)

Future wheels

Inductive Methodologies: select most plausible and desired future from a

range of possibilities

Selection of key drivers (lead variables) based upon level of uncertainty and

impact (uncertainty x impact = driver importance)

Generation of a (limited and useful) range of possible scenarios

double variable ( 4 quadrant) analysis

triple variable (cubistic) or multi-variate scenario generation

Modelling Tools

(4) CONTINUED: CRAFTING OF A PLAUSIBLE + DESIRED SET OF TIME-

LINKED SEQUENTIAL FUTURES THROUGH:

Participative Methodologies

Managed Iterative thinking process with key leaders, stakeholders, experts

Incorporating best practical feasible / workable mix of Inductive and

deductive methods

(5) HOW DO WE GET THERE? WE BUILD SCENARIOS ON HOW OUR CHOICES WILL IMPACT ON THE FUTURE WE WISH

TO CREATE.

THE MOST IMPORTANT, EASILY NEGLECTED SCENARIOS

Model the implications of near and medium term choices for

getting to desired plausible future timeline

Use double or triple variable scenario generation based on

policy or strategy options

Do-nothing or “business as usual scenario” in bottom left

quadrant

Best choice scenario in top right quadrant

Other quadrants represent parallel steps

6) WHAT STORY DO WE BUILD?

WE WRITE UP THE STORY AND CREATE A PICTURE OF THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.

7) WHAT DO WE DO NEXT? WE DESIGN OUR SYSTEMS AND SET TARGETS FOR HOW WE WILL CREATE

THE FUTURE THAT WE DESIRE.

BIO

ABOUT SHAHID SOLOMON

A City Planner

After graduating as a planner at UCT in 1986, Shahid worked his way to executive level in the City of Cape Town through its various transitions in the 1990’s with responsibilities for most of the planning, economic development and tourism related disciplines. This included working on several of Cape Town’s iconic mega-projects and facilitating local and international partnerships with many organizations.

Development Strategist

Shahid entered consulting practice in 2005 where he has worked on economic strategy, tourism, growth management, integrated planning and foresight strategies throughout South Africa.

He has designed and managed several business mentoring programmes.

A Re-novator

Shahid has renovated two charming old houses in Cape Town, self-renovated many times over and been a part of many big and small re-novations in South Africa’s transition.

At the age of 54 he sees himself as a re-novation coach and advisor.

He is self employed.

CAPABILITIES

City and Regional Planning

Foresight & Scenario Planning.

Leadership Coaching & Mentoring

Programme Management

Economic Partnerships & Development

Enterprise Development

Destination Marketing & Development

SHAHID LIVES IN CAPE TOWN

SOUTH AFRICA

Telephone +27 (0) 71 917 5011

Telephone: + 27 (0) 82 6580 617

Email: shahidsolomon@gmail.com

shahid@novation2050.co.za

Fax: +27(0) 86 773 6615

Twitter: @ShahidSolomon

Skype: shahidsolomon

Facebook: shahid.solomon.1@facebook.com

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