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<b><font face="Arial, Helve ica, sans-serif" size="`5">Defense of th

e Draft</font></b><table width="l00%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">

<tr><td width=99% bgcolor=" 003366" height="l"></td><td width=l% bgcolor=#003366 align=right height-"1"`></td>

<tr><td width=99%><font face=verdana,arial size=l>By Sallie Baliuna

s and Willie Soon</font></td><td width=15% bgcolor=*003366 align=right>'cfont face=verdana,ar

ial size=1 color=white> 03/04/2003 </font></td>

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cript.;"' onClick="window.openfl(etaf-article.jsp?CID=1051-030403E&SECTION=flviro-Sci', 'ernailarticle' , Iscrollbars=yes,width=280,height=400'); "><img src="1images/

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ailarticle' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=280, eight=400'); ">E-Mail</a></foflt></td>

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tr><td><img src=' images/20030304-climfa -e-large.jpg' width=212 height=151 border

=2></td></tr><tr><td><table border=0 c lspacing=0 cellpadding=0 align=right><t

r><td width=l0 bgcolor='#336699'></td>ctd bgcolor'-#003366'><foflt face='Arial,

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<font face="Arial, Helveti a, sans-serif" size="12">The Bush administration has proposed a common-sense review of th

e nation's climate research, one that ~ould lead to a course correction for dir

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ecting an area of scientific inquiry that has benefited from an infusion of ove

r $20 billion in funding in the last tea years. Considerable progress has alrea

dy been made toward understanding the c mplex system of climate change, but mor

e remains to be done to eliminate criti al gaps in our knowledge.

<br><br>Theadministration issued a draft outline analyzing and proposing changes to the C

limate Change Science Program and welco ed all stakeholders - from scientists t

o the public - to discuss the future of climate research. The process is intend

ed to determine what areas of climate r search are in need of greater funding a

nd support.<br><br>The National Research Council organ-zed a panel to review

the draft. The panel was critical of the draft, but rather than clarify the exi

sting state of climate science and research, the panel's members muddied the wa

ters.<cbr><br><b>On the One Hand, On the Other</b><br><br>On the one hand,the panel members claimed that a human-made component of global warming has bee

n firmly established by the scientific community, thus obviating the administra

tion's call for research to reduce uncertainties over anthropogenic warming and

bolstering claims that a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is

necessary. But they also said, paradoxically, that significantly <I>more</I> re

search funding would be necessary to reduce the scientific uncertainties relate

d to human-made global warming.<br><br>One of the panelists criticized the ad

ministration's research priorities, telling the <I> New York Times</T> that res

earch 'that would have been cutting edge in 1980 is listed as a priority for th

e future."<br><br>Despite this panelist's assertion, there are longstanding

improvements needed in basic climate science. For instance, a deteriorating and

insufficient network for ascertaining surface temperature measurements must be

strengthened; and understanding of thE basic physics of convection that govern

s the transfer of large amounts of ene gy must be improved. Even after two deca

des of research in these areas, they r main at the leading edge of problems to

be solved to reduce uncertainty in for casts Of the human-made climate impact.

<br><br>Moreover, the panel asserted that more is known about a human-made war

ming trend than the Bush administration will admit. For example, one panel memb

er, Michael Prather, announced that ab ut half of observed warming trend of the

last few decades is anthropogenic while the remainder is natural.

<br><br>This assertion leaves the impression that a human-caused global warming effect is

understood thoroughly enough to diffe entiate the human warming trend from nat

ural causes, and that research on the matter could be concluded and funding red

uced.<br><br>Scientific claims about anthropogehic warming can be traced to

the conclusions listed in the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Impacts

of Climate Variability and Change and the United Nations' Intergovernmental Pa

nel on Climate Change 2001's Third Ass ssment Report. But these conclusions are

uncertain because the main tools on w ich they are based are computer simulati

ons that have not reliably reproduced either past or current attributes of the

climate system. However, that is not surprising, since the natural influences

of climate are still difficult to mode . Reducing uncertainty about natural var

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iability remains a critical concern in Distinguishing human and natural warming

trends.<br><br>The panel's claims are thus confusi g: While claiming we know

enough to act on global warming by red cing greenhouse gas emissions, the pane

1 also criticized the lack of a commitm nt to substantial new funding for impro

ving climate research.<br><br><b>We Know What We Don't Know </b><br><br>The panel's complaints try to have things both ways: Either the science is comple

te (or complete enough) to move ahead w-th substantial cuts in carbon dioxide e

missions, or the climate forecasts are Uncertain and require substantial advanc

es in order to give reliable forecasts )ne or two centuries into the future. In

the first case, the committee is calli g for reductions in fundamental researc

h in climate change, and a restructuring of energy policy in the U.S., with cos

ts that will be difficult to bear in th~ next decade. In the second case, the a

rgument for much more funding undercuts the previous assertion that the science

is settled.<br><br>Implementing large and immediate cu s in greenhouse gas e

missions will be costly to human health, welfare and the environment. Waiting f

or two or three decades while the techn logy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

improves and becomes more affordable d es not, according to computer simulatio

ns shown in the UN assessment, add significant warming at the end of 100 years.

It would make greenhouse gas cuts easier and more affordable. Most important,

prioritized research in that interval my allow scientific progress in understa

nding climate physics and defining the extent of human-made climate change - wh

ich was the original point of the draft document.</f ont>

<br><br>

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t=l0></td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="winiow.open( 'display-cormment.jsp?msgid=f3ba

04cd8e' , 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=310,height=500' );">Having it both ways</a> <font cobo ="#666666">by Scot Wilson</font></td>

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erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid~f3ba

59d562' , maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Dano</font></td>

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<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"'><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3ba

a5666c' ,'maint , 'scrollbars=yes,width=34o,height=500');">

Re: Having it both ways</a> <toflt color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</foflt><

/ td>

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t =10>< /td><td><font face=-Verdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=" 1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:; onClick='wifl ow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid~f3bb

bfO2af','maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=3 0,height=500' );">

Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</a>&n sp;<font color="#666666">by Dano</foflt>

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<tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td>

<td width=1Q valign=top><img sr =imnages/feedback arrow--right.gif width=9 hei

t= 10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size='1"><a class~nou

erline href="javascnipt.;" onClick="win low.open( 'display_comment.jsp?tnsgid~f3bb

be7c29' , maint' lscrollbars~yes,width=3 10,height=500');>

Re: Re: Re: Having a Market both ways</a> <font color="#666666 ">by Rick Ma

rliave</font></td></tr></ table>

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<tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td>

<td widthl10 valign=top><img src=irnages/feedback arrow_right.gif width=9 hei

t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid~f3bc

3alad4' ,'maint', scrollbars~yes,width=340,height'$00');V>

Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both ways</a> <foflt color="#666666">by Dan

o</font></td>

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<tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td>

<td width=10 valign~top><iffg s ~c=images/feedback-arrow--right.gif width'9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;' onClick='wi idow.open( 'display~comment. jsp?msgid~f3bc

c4ccld' , maint , 'scrollbars~yes,width k40,height=500') ;">

A lesson on Adam Smith</a> <font olor="#666666">by Rick Marliave</font></

td>

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<table border="10" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0' width="100%"><tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img sic=images/feed~back-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi idow.open( 'display~comment.jsp?msgid=f3bef3a669' ,'maint','scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');<I>Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Gaming a Market both ways</a> <font color="#666666">byElectro the Capitalist Boy</font></td>

</table>

<table border="O" cellspacing="0" cellpaddirng="O" width="100%"><tr><td width=1Q valign=top> </td><td width=1Q valign=top><img s c=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;"f onClick="wirdow.open( 'display~comment. jsp?msgid=f3bbc~e~ba' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500') U'>Re: Re: Having it both ways'c/a> <font color="#666666">by ejt</font></td>

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<table border="0" cellspacing= "0" cellpadding="10" width="100%"><tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l10 ></Itd><td><fornt face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display-comment .jsp?msgid=f3bbc34e78 , 'maint', scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500') ;">Re: Re: Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Rick Marliave</font></td>

<I/table>

<table border="0" cellspacing=' 0" cellpadding="0" width="l00%"><tr><td width=10 valign=top> <Itd><td width=10 valign=top><img sic=images/feedback arrow_right.gif width=9 hei

t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdaria, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript.;" onClick="wirdow.open( display~comment .jsp?msgid=f3bb88c8ld' ,'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width= -40,height=500') ;">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="f4666666">by Praxus</font></td>

</ table>

<table border="0" cellspacing=' 0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> <Itd><td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font tace='Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=" 1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( 'display-comment jsp?msgid=f3bb9cebe0' ,'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width= 40,height=500');if>Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by Mark Wilson</tont></tdi>

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</tr></table>

<table border="0" cellspacing= 0" cellpaddi~ng="0" width="l00%",><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=lO valign=top><img s c=images/feedbaclc-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc4b5e7a' , maint , 'scrollbars=yes,width='40,height=500') ;">,Re: Re: Having it both ways</a> < ont color="#666666">by freepete</font></td>

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<table border="10" cellspacing=' 0" cellpadding="Oh width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=10 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback_arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wirdow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3bbc7b541', 'maint' ,'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500') ;">Re: Having it both ways</a> <font color="#666666">by cbsimkins</font></td>

</table>

<table border="0"l cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"l width="100%"1><tr><td width=10 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img src=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hei

t=10></td><td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="window.open( 'display-commnent. jsp?msgid=f3bc466c7a', 'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways<c/a> <font color="#666666">by freepete</font></td>

<!table>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top> </td><td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hel

t=10></td><td><font tace="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><a class=nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick&'win ow.open( 'display comment.jsp?msgid=f3beb3lfd2' ,'maint', 'scrollbars=yes,width=340,height=500');">Re: Having it both ways</a>&nbspy<font color="#666666">by tom</font></td>

<Itr><I/table>

<table border="O" cellspacing="" cellpadding="O" width="100%"><tr><td width=l0 valign=top><img sr =images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hel

t =10>< /td>

<td><font face="Verdana, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1'><a class=nou

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erline href="1javascript:; 'onClick="wifldow.open( displayc 0mment.jsp?msgid=f3bb

8ad733', 'maint', colasye~it=4,heih= r0);U>

How True</a>&flbsp;<foflt color="#6 6 66 6 6' >by Praxus</font></td>

</table>

<table border="10" cellspacirig="1I cellpadding="O0" width="l100%">

<tr><td widthlO0 valign~top> </td>

<td width=l0 valign=top><img sr .=images/feedback arrow__right.gif width=9 hei

t=l10>< /td><td><font face=",Verdanla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1"><a class~nou

erline href="1javascript:;" oriClick="wifl ow.open( 'display_c0omment.jsp?msgid=f3be

9a5f9a' ,'maint' , scrollbars~yes,width-3 0,height=500') ;'>

Re: How True</a>&flbsp;<foflt color"*656 66"61>by Jayakama1</foflt></td>

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<table border=I101 cellspaciflg" " cellpaddtflg"O0" width='l100% ">

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arrow-night.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td>

<td><forit face="Verdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="l"><a class=nou

erlirne href="javascript:;" onClick="wifl ow.open('display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bb

9f5ae5 , 'mairnt' , scrollbars~yes,width=3 10,height=500');">

It's all about money<c/a> <foflt col r=`#666666">by Mark Wilson</foflt></td>

</ table>

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<tr><td width=lQ valign~top> </td>

<td width=l0 valign=top><img s c=images/feedback arrow__right.gif width=9 hei

t=l0></td><td><font face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size=`l1"><a class=nou

erline href="1javascript:;" onClick="wi dow.open( display~corwfent.jsp?msgidtf3bb

bb686c' , 'maint' , scrollbars~yes,width= 40,height=500') ;">

Re: It's all about <s>money<!s> or sorn thing</a>&flbsp<foflt color="*#666666">by

Dario< /font>< /td>

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<td widthl10 valign~top><img s c=images/feedback arrow_right.gif width=9 hei

t =l0>< /td><td><forit face="Verdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="1l"><a class~nou

erline href=1"javascript.V'1 onClick="wi dow.open( 'display-commeflt. jsp~msgid~f3bb

b56416' , maint,' ,scrollbars~yes,width=340 ,height=500' );

Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a>&flbsp;<foflt color="#6666 6 6 "

>by Mark Wilson</foflt></td><Itr></table>

<table border="O" cellspacilg="O" cellpadding="O" width="l0O%`>

<tr><td widthl10 valign~top> <ltd>

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<td widthl10 valign~top><img src=images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hel

t=l0></td><td><foflt face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size-"1"><a class=nou

erline href="'javascript:;"1 oriClick="wiflow.open('display_comment.jsp?msgid=f3bb

ca63f9', maint' , scrollbars~yes,width=3 40,height=500' );C>

Re: Re: It's all about <s>money</s> or something</a>&flbsp;<foflt color='#66 6 6

6 6'

>by Dano</font></td>

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t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1"><a class~flou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wif~low.open( 'display-commnent.jsp?msgid~f3bb

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Re: Tt's all about money</a> <foflt color="#666666">by Steve L.<!foflt></td>

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<tr>

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t =10>< /td><td><font face="Verdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="'l"><Ca classzflou

erline href="javascript:;" ornClicc="'window.open( display-comment.jsp?mslgid~f3bc

260cl11','maint,',crol~0 lbars=yes,width=340,height=500');>

Re: Re: It's all about money</a> <foflt color="*#666666"'>by Charlie Mcc.</fo

nt></td></tr>

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t=10></td><td><font face="Verdanla, Anial Helvetica, sans-serif" size"1l"><a class~nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wi idow.open( 6 isplay-comnment.jsp?msgid~f3bc

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Re: Re: It's all about money</a> . font color="#666666"1>by freepete</font><

/td>

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<td width=10 valign~top><img sr5 mgsfedakaro-ih~i width=9 hei

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Re: It's all about rnoney</a> <fort color="*#666666"1>by fneepete</foflt></td>

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</table>

<table border="O" cellspacilg="O" cellpaddjing='O' width='lOO%6>

<tr>

<td width=1O valign=top><img sr =images/feedback-arrow-right.gif width=9 hel

t=lo></td>

<td><font face=lVerdafla, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size='1"><a class=nau

erline href='hjavascript: ;" onClick="wifl ow.open( 'display-comment. jsp?msgid~f3bc

8d9a4c',,'maint' , scrollbars~yes,width=3 2O,height=500');">

Global</a>&flbsp;<foflt color="*666666'I>by Mike Weatherford</foflt><!td>

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<tr><td widthlO0 valign~top> </td>

<td widthlO0 valign~top><img sr ,=images/feedbacZk arrow_nright.gif width=9 hel

t~l0></td><td><cfont face='Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif' size="1'><a class=nou

erline href='javascript:;" onClick="wifl ow.open( 'display-comment.jsp?msgid=f3bc

c0994 7', 'maint,' ,scrollbars~yes,width=

3 O,height=500');H'>

Re: Global</a> <font color="*#666EG ">by Steve L</foflt></td>

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<td widthlO0 valign~top><img sic=images/feedbackarrow right~gi :f width=9 hei

t=l0></td>

<td><font face="Verdafla, Anial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"><a class~nou

erline href="javascript:;" onClick="wiidow.open( displa comm~feft.jsp~msgid=f3be

661c17,'maintfl' , scrollbars~yes,width=.40,height=5OO);"

Acting ofl imperfect irnformatiofl</a>&flb p;<font color='#666666"1>by Dave mrown</f

ont></td></tr>

</table>

<i-- end of discussion comments -- >

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