rates are up. inventory is down. margins are tight. what now?...rates are up. inventory is down....
TRANSCRIPT
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Company Confidential ©2012 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
This Ain’t No Party. This Ain’t No Disco. This Ain’t No Fooling Around.
Rates Are Up. Inventory Is Down.
Margins Are Tight. What Now?
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1Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
Crazy
Patsy Cline
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2Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
Crazy
Cee Lo Green
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3Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
Let’s Go
Crazy
Prince
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Framing It Up
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Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
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Environment
Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
YOU
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7Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
What Are Your Hurdles?
Rate
Inventory
Margins
Technology / Digitization
Process / Customer Experience
Everyone Has These Hurdles
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8Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
No More Tears
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9Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018
$Trillion Refi Market Has Ended
Total Origination Down ~20% Since ‘16
Refinance Activity Has Fallen by Half Since ‘16 Purchase Activity Growth Also Slowing
1,274
1,095978
1,520
1,138
517
822
1,010
660
485
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Refinance Origination ($B)
09-17 Avg:
$1T
But There
Will Not Be
Enough
Growth To
Offset
Lower Refi
Volume
566 535 517600
734783
913
1,0601,140 1,175
-5.5%-3.4%
16.1%
22.3%
6.7%
16.6% 16.1%
7.5%
3.1%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Purchase
Growth Rate
Purchase Origination ($B)
1,840 1,630 1,495 2,120 1,872 1,300 1,735 2,070 1,800 1,660
69% 67% 65%72%
61%
40%
47% 49%
37%
29%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Total
Refi Mix
Total Origination ($B)
Lender Profitability Down
395362 370385
353377
17Q1 17Q4 18Q1
Revenue
Expense
Revenue vs Expense
(bps)
10bps 9 bps (8) bpsProfit/(Loss)
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10Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018
Rates Rising, But…
2.91
4.57
1.82
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Interest Rates
10-year Treasury 30-year Mortgage Fed Funds
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac
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11Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018
Strong First-Time Buyer Demand
Homebuyer Demographics To Stay Positive Homeownership Rate On the Rise
84.084.6
85.3
86.286.9
87.588.0
88.4 88.7 88.9 89.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Population Between the Ages of 25 and 44
(Millions)
3MM Homebuyers
Entered Market
2MM More to Come
39.743.1
34.6 35.3 35.3 36.5
67.269.2
58.5 59.0 59.8 60.0
99 Peak (04) Trough(16)
17 1Q18 2Q18
Under 35
35 - 44
Homeownership Rate (%)
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~80% FTB Need MI*
12
* PMI, FHA, VA
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13Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018
Job Market Tightens
More Leverage to Workers
Job Growth Up, Unemployment Down Job Market Tightens
Share of Total Job Growth
Job Growth Going to Young Workers
470
-870
460
-1,820
280
1,2401,540
94-99 00-03 04-06 07-09 10-12 13-16 17-18
25 – 44 Year Old Job Growth
(‘000, 4Q Change)
65%47%18%72%18%-186%19%
2,710 2,340 2,180 660 650 570
5.34.9
4.44.1 3.9 3.8
2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Job Growth
Unemployment Rate
Job Growth (‘000) and Unemployment Rate (%)
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9
2.32.6 2.5
2.7 2.7 2.8
2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Available Worker/Available Jobs Wage Growth
Available Worker Per Job Opening and Wage Growth (%)
2,810 3,030 3,190 3,260 3,440 3,580
2.0
2.1
2.2 2.2
2.3
2.4
2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Quits Quits Rate
Quits Per Month (‘000, SA) and Quits Rate (%)
SEP-YTD: 1.9MM
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14Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018
Mortgage Market
Improving Borrower Credit History
Mortgage Origination Dominated by Agencies
1,201 1,092 963 1,438 1,174 767 967 1,148 1,008 918
344
282
190
232
212
135
234
256237
197
74
69
80
128
130
111
154
203
173183
97
104
170
225
272
235
328
383
320300
10
818
23
18
21
24
32
3845
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Conventional FHA VA USDA Jumbo Expanded Credit
Total Origination ($B)
Swelling of 700+ FICO Borrowers
690
686
704
200
5-1
0
200
6-1
0
200
7-1
0
200
8-0
4
200
8-1
0
200
9-0
4
200
9-1
0
201
0-0
4
201
0-1
0
201
1-0
4
201
1-1
0
201
2-0
4
201
2-1
0
201
3-0
4
201
3-1
0
201
4-0
4
201
4-1
0
201
5-0
4
201
5-1
0
201
6-0
4
201
6-1
0
201
7-0
4
201
7-1
0
201
8-0
4
Average FICO Score
53.9
53.1
53.9
54.7
55.8
56.8
58.2
Percent of Population with 700+ FICO
Credit
Improvement
Accelerated
Since ‘14
Conventional
GNMA
Non-Agency
Mod. Growth in
Expanded Credit,
Prime Jumbo, and
Portfolio Conforming
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15Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
2 Websites
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17Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
2 Websites
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18Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
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2 Newsletters
19
Robchrisman.com
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Burnt Out?
22
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There Is Beauty Out There
23
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Customer
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Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
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25
So, What’s Their Story?
Median Age All Buyers 46 (+1)
Median Age FTB (33% of All) 32 (same since 2016)
Median Age Repeat Buyers 55 (+1)
All Buyers
18 - 24 2% (0)
25 - 34 24% (-2)
35 - 44 22% (+1)
45 - 54 15% (-1)
55 - 64 18% (0)
65 - 74 15% (+2)
Over 74 5% (+1)
Buyers in the Northeast and Midwest tended to be younger,
while buyers in the West and South regions tended to be older.
Millennials
Gen X
Boomers
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I Got You Babe…Oh, Maybe Not.
26Introduction to the Mortgage Industry
All Buyers First Time Buyers
The share of Married Couples 63% (-2) 54% (-3)
The share of Single Females 18% (0) 18% (0)
The share of Single Males 9% (2) 10% (3)
The share of Unmarried Couples 8% (0) 16% (0)
Number of Children Under 18 Residing in Household
All Buyers First Time Buyers
None 66% (3) 62%
One 15% (1) 20%
Two 13% (-2) 12%
Three or more 6% (-1) 6%
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What About Furry Feet?
27Introduction to the Mortgage Industry
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28NAR 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
https://petlas.world/
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29NAR 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
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You
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Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
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Janine Driver
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Leadership
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Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
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Leadership Defined…
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The Ability And Willingness Of Others To Follow
They Will Follow If…
You Can Help Them Get What They Want
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Leadership Checklist
Envisioning
Enrolling
Empowering
Energizing
1) Are you committed to
excellence?
2) Are you willing to put in
the effort?
3) Do you have my best
interest at heart?
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Leadership Checklist
Envisioning
Enrolling
Empowering
Energizing
1) Are you committed to
excellence?
2) Are you willing to put in
the effort?
3) Do you have my best
interest at heart?
SINCERITY
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Teamwork
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Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
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37www.smartermi.com
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5 Keys To A Successful Team
Impactful Work 5
Meaning of Work 4
Structure and Clarity 3
Dependability 2
Psychological Safety 1
https://rework.withgoogle.com/blog/five-keys-to-a-successful-google-team/
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Change
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Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
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All Things Are Not Equal
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Negative Seduction
44
“Bad emotions, bad parents
and bad feedback have more
impact than good ones. Bad
impressions and bad
stereotypes are quicker to
form and more resistant to
disconfirmation than good
ones.”
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Negative Seduction
45
Alison Ledgerwood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XFLTDQ4JMk
70% Success
Viewed Positively
30% Failure
Viewed Negatively
30% Failure
Switched To Negative
70% Success
Stayed Negative
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The Great Golf Analogy
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Your Biggest Fear
Are You Providing
High Value?
Do You See a Loan
or a Person?
Do You Know
His/Her Story?
Does He/She Know
Your Story?
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Where Tech Will Win?
I Am Here To Refi You I Have Purchase Money
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How You View 2 Types of Tech
Enterprise
Technology
Individual Adoption
Technology
Company Website
Company App
CRM
LOS
Intranet
Websites You Visit
Apps You Downloaded
Devices You Purchased
Blogs, Vlogs, Podcasts, Videos,
Newsletters You Subscribe To
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3 Types… Which One Are You?
Who Is The Star?
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Change
51
Question For You
Time
Contact List
Double Dial
Out Of Sight
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52
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60
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61
Deal Of the Day
Alarm Clock – Music Choice
Dictate Hands Free Text
Message
Make Donations
MyPetDoc
Order Pizza
Recipes
Play Music
Personal Trainer
Check Credit Card Balance
Check Stock Prices
Find Restaurants
Drink Recipes
Meow – Talks To Your Cats
Sound Box
Lights On/Off
TV
Robot Vacuums
Start Your Car
TaskRabbit
Nest
Schedule Meetings
Podcasts
Day In History
Sports Scores
Pregnancy Tips
Meditate
Get First Aid
70,000 Skills
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Creativity
62
Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
YOU
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Bill Says… Connect The Dots of Creativity
63
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kshboJxmU7k
29
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Creativity
64
The Connection of 2
Or More Seemingly
Dissimilar Concepts
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Creativity
65
The Connection of 2
Or More Seemingly
Dissimilar Concepts
Entertainment
Science
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Creativity
66
The Connection of 2
Or More Seemingly
Dissimilar Concepts
Settlement
Simplicity
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Creativity
67
The Connection of 2
Or More Seemingly
Dissimilar Concepts
Open House
Out Of State
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Creativity – Small Changes
68
Fiction
Add One Letter – R
Friction
Change One Letter – I
Fraction
One More Small Change
Action
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Look Outside The Box
69
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70Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
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71Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
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72Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy
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Framing It Up
73
Leadership
Teamwork
Creativity
Change
YOU
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M
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facebook.com/thatMIguy
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Contact Info
Steve Richman
870-2519 919
– Please Join Me
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/steverichman
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ThatMIGuy
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Legal Disclaimer Genworth Mortgage Insurance is happy to provide you with these
training materials. While we strive for accuracy, we also know that any
discussion of laws and their application to particular facts is subject to
individual interpretation, change, and other uncertainties. Our training is not
intended as legal advice, and is not a substitute for advice of counsel. You
should always check with your own legal advisors for interpretations of legal
and compliance principles applicable to your business.
GENWORTH EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES,
EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION WARRANTIES OF
MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, WITH
RESPECT TO THESE MATERIALS AND THE RELATED TRAINING. IN NO
EVENT SHALL GENWORTH BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT,
INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ANY KIND
WHATSOEVER WITH RESPECT TO THE TRAINING AND THE MATERIALS.
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