rapid response catchment forecasting – challenges and solutions · 2015-01-08 · 28 20 october...
TRANSCRIPT
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Rapid response catchment
forecasting – challenges
and solutions
Murray Dale, Halcrow, Associate Hydrometeorologist
COPYRIGHT HALCROW GROUP LTD. 2010
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20 October 20102 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Contents
• Background & RRC definitions
• Challenges in flood forecasting
for RRCs
• Solutions for addressing these
challenges
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3 BHS South West Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments20 October 2010
Background & Definitions
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20 October 20104 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Pitt Review of 2007 Floods
• 3: The Met Office should continue to improve its
forecasting and predicting methods to a level which
meets the needs of emergency responders.
• 6: The Environment Agency and the Met Office
should work together, through a joint centre, to
improve their technical capability to forecast, model
and warn against all sources of flooding.
• 34: The Met Office and the Environment Agency
should issue warnings against a lower threshold of
probability to increase preparation lead times for
emergency responders.
• 35: The Met Office and Environment Agency should
issue joint warnings and impact information on
severe weather and flooding emergencies to
responder organisations and the public .
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20 October 20105 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Key Challenge: Lead time and accuracy
Pitt Review, 2007
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20 October 20106 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
What is a Rapid Response Catchment?
• Term RRC was defined in 2006 through studies undertaken by HR
Wallingford for the Environment Agency that developed a register
of RRCs in England & Wales – used number of criteria
• “All communities where the upstream catchment has a Time to
Peak (Tp) that is less than or equal to 3 hours, require a rainfall
detection capability. You can provide this by an adequate
coverage of radar or an adequate coverage of rain-gauges.”
(Agency operational instruction Flood warning levels of service Operational
instruction 137_05, issued 18 December 2008)
• Forecasting Options for Rapid Response Catchments – R&D Scoping
Study (Halcrow, 2009) used Tp </= 3 hours
• This then incorporates Fast Responding Urban Catchments (FRUCs)
– many in Thames Region that were not on original RRC Register
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20 October 20107 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
RRC Characteristics
• Small catchment size
• Steepness of catchment slopes
• Relatively impermeable soils
and underlying geology
• A high degree of urban land
cover in the catchment,
increasing impermeability
In many cases, RRCs have a combination of
these characteristics, and sometimes a
combination of all these characteristics.
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20 October 20108 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
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20 October 20109 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Traditional forms of forecasting don’t provide required lead times for effective action
Inflow 1
Inflow 2
Inflow 3
Town
Forecast
Routing
HD
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10 BHS South West Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments20 October 2010
Forecasting Challenges
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Forecasting convective rainfall
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Ottery St Mary October 2008
Images courtesy of the
Environment Agency
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Probability of exceeding 100mm in the 24-
hour period 15 UTC 5th to 15 UTC 6th September from the UK 4km
model
Forecast starting at 03 UTC 5th
Forecast starting at 09 UTC 5th
Forecast starting at 15 UTC 5th
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20 October 201014 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
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15 BHS South West Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments20 October 2010
Forecasting Solutions
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20 October 201016 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Forecasting Options for RRCs
• Study in February 2009 identified 6 options, split into two ‘phases’
• ‘Alert Phase’ & ‘Warning Phase’
• Alert Phase uses forecast rainfall
• Warning Phase uses measured hydrometric data (data actuals)
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20 October 201017 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Options Evaluation
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20 October 201018 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
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20 October 201019 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
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20 October 201020 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Depth-duration alerts
• Recommendation from Forecasting Options Scoping Study
• What rainfall depth causes what response in each catchment – know
what you’re dealing with
• Use historic event data to define thresholds
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20 October 201022 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
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20 October 201023 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Operational DDA tool (Thames Region)
01/04/2010
Area 1hr 2hr 3hr 6hr Total Event
West
North East
South East
Area 1hr 2hr 3hr 6hr Total Event
West
North East
South East
Area Catchment Flood Watch Flood Watch Areas Flood Warning Flood Warning Areas
West Cole 0 1 0 4
West Ray (Wilts) 0 1 0 3
South East Beverly Brook 0 1 0 8
South East Hogsmill 0 1 0 2
South East Ravensbourne 0 1 0 11
South East Wandle 0 1 0 7
North East Brent Brooks 0 1 0 6
North East Pinn 0 1 0 7
North East Crane 0 1 0 2
North East Lower Lee Tribs 0 1 0 11
Region Total 0 10 0 61
Summary of Issues Expected
Forecast Issued:
Heavy Rainfall Alert Forecast (mm) for 01/04/2010
Heavy Rainfall Alert Forecast (mm) for 01/04/2010
Summer
Winter
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Forecast & Warning Decision Making
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20 October 201025 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Specific Developments - ERAs
• Alerts for Surface Water
Flooding
• Uses probabilistic forecasting
technology
• Uses latest meteorological
science, methods and models
to estimate likelihood of
exceeding: 30mm in 1-hr,
40mm in 3-hr, 50mm in 6-hr
• Forecast technology can be
used for RRCs
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20 October 201026 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Flood sirens – a flood warning option
• Option for alerting in rapid response
catchments
• Requires reliable upstream level
trigger
• Lead time is very short, can
facilitate more immediate actions if
those at risk are aware of
procedures
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20 October 201027 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Probabilistic Flood Forecasting
• Can increase lead time
• Can be used in a risk-based
framework
• Capture & quantify forecast
uncertainty
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20 October 201028 BHS South West Section Meeting on Rapid Response Catchments
Conclusions
• Rapid Response Catchments present particular challenges, pushing
technical and operational limits
• However, rainfall forecasting has improved dramatically – options
are becoming possible
• Combining rainfall forecasts with other information (e.g. catchment
state, flood vulnerability, rainfall actuals) can give rise to risk-
based alerts in RRCs