railtrends 2013 novemberrailtrends 2013 conference trucking outlook president, gross transportation...
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![Page 1: Railtrends 2013 NovemberRailtrends 2013 Conference Trucking Outlook President, Gross Transportation Consulting Contact Info: ... – Heartland + Gordon. Be careful what you wish for](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060519/604d14920eed7567d50b0182/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Larry GrossSenior Consultant, FTR
Railtrends 2013 Conference
Trucking Outlook
Senior Consultant, FTR
President, Gross Transportation
Consulting
Contact Info:
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@EricMStarks@FTRintel www.FTRintel.com
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Trucking Conditions Index is in favorable territory
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 =
Ne
utr
al
Co
nd
itio
ns
FTR Trucking Conditions Index
Copyright – FTR 2013 3
Some slippage is expected due to the shutdown and ongoing government
disfunction and HOS squeeze
November 2013
-2
0
2
4
SEP
'11
DEC
'11
MAR
'12
JUN
'12
SEP
'12
DEC
'12
MAR
'13
JUN
'13
SEP
'13
DEC
'13
MAR
'14
JUN
'14
SEP
'14
0 =
Ne
utr
al
Co
nd
itio
ns
Current Outlook
Source: FTR; Copyright 2013
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Truck Loadings have been growing well in recent months
90
95
100
105
110
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%FTR Truck Loadings Index: Actual & Y/Y %
Copyright – FTR 2013 4
The shift towards a more consumer-led recovery will slow the rate of
growth next year
November 2013
80
85
90
-4%
-2%
0%
SEP
'11
DEC
'11
MAR
'12
JUN
'12
SEP
'12
DEC
'12
MAR
'13
JUN
'13
SEP
'13
DEC
'13
MAR
'14
JUN
'14
SEP
'14Source: FTR; Copyright 2013 -- Index: 2000 = 100
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Despite recent growth, loadings are still around 5% shy of
pre-recession levels
85
90
95
100
105
110
115FTR Truck Loadings Index
Copyright – FTR 2013 5
The industry is being very disciplined in terms of adding capacity
November 2013
70
75
80
85
JAN
'06
AUG
'06
MAR
'07
OCT
'07
MAY
'08
DEC
'08
JUL
'09
FEB
'10
SEP
'10
APR
'11
NOV
'11
JUN
'12
JAN
'13
AUG
'13Source: FTR; Copyright 2013 -- Index: 2000 = 100
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Our truckload volume forecast is modestly optimistic.
-5%
0%
5%
10%A
ve
rage
An
nu
ali
zed
QO
Q G
row
thTruckload Load Growth
Copyright – FTR 2013 6
We continue to see a positive multiplier on GDP.
Source: FTR
-15%
-10%
-5%
90's
Recovery
2001
Recession
Ought's
Recovery
Great
Recession
Teens's
Recovery
2014
Av
era
ge A
nn
ua
lize
d Q
OQ
Gro
wth
GDP IP Truck
November 2013
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Of course reality is never orderly. Individual quarters
will vary widely.
0%
5%
10%
15%
-A
nn
ua
lize
dForecast Risk – Best & Worst Quarters
Upside
Downside
Copyright – FTR 2013 7
Again, it is the extremes that move markets.
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
GDP IP Truck Rail
Carload
Rail
Intermodal
QO
Q G
row
th - Downside
Recession
Downside
Source: FTR, Transport Economics
November 2013
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We are coming out of two very stable years.
6%
8%
10%
12%
Sta
nd
ard
De
via
tio
n O
f Q
OQ
Gro
wth
-A
nn
ua
lize
dGrowth Volatility
1992-2013
Average
2010-2011
Copyright – FTR 2013 8
Rail carload is the one exception due to developments in coal and grain.
0%
2%
4%
Sta
nd
ard
De
via
tio
n O
f Q
OQ
Gro
wth
2010-2011
2012-2013
Source: FTR, Transport Economics
November 2013
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Fuel prices have stabilized.
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00$
pe
r ga
llo
nOn Highway Diesel Cost
Copyright – FTR 2013 9
They will slowly rise if the global economy picks up steam.
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$ p
er
gall
on
Source: EIA, FTR
November 2013
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We see moderate logistical cost increases led by the
truck market’s adjustment to regulatory change.
5%
10%
15%
Total Logistics Cost Changes
Copyright – FTR 2013 10
The performance during the last year was extraordinary.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
20
04
.1
20
04
.3
20
05
.1
20
05
.3
20
06
.1
20
06
.3
20
07
.1
20
07
.3
20
08
.1
20
08
.3
20
09
.1
20
09
.3
20
10
.1
20
10
.3
20
11
.1
20
11
.3
20
12
.1
20
12
.3
20
13
.1
20
13
.3
20
14
.1
20
14
.3
20
15
.1
20
15
.3
20
16
.1
20
16
.3
YO
Y
Source: FTR
November 2013
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FMCSA and HOS
• Recent HOS changes were the compromise
product of a very long and contentious
process
– Compromises often end up pleasing on one– Compromises often end up pleasing on one
– Theoretical safety benefits are disputed by many
– Productivity effect about as expected
– Will dissatisfaction cause more drivers to quit the
business? This has not been modeled.
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FMCSA is in a political bind
• Congress rejects use of “guidance” for sleep
apnea/medical qualification of drivers
– Mandates more formal rule change process with
public comment & cost/benefit analysispublic comment & cost/benefit analysis
• NTSB pushing for more activist FMCSA
• Many new regulations are in the hopper
• Trucking industry decries “war on trucking”
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The Driver Situation
Copyright – FTR Associates 2013 13
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We are facing easily the largest collection of
regulatory changes in history.
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Hir
es
(00
0)
Cumulative Extra Hires Due To Regulation Electronic Stability controls
Speed limiters
Safe Harbor
OSHA Worker Protection
Minimum Insurance
Entry Proficiency
Training Provisions Driver Effect
Drug & Alcohol Data Base
Prohibition Of Coercion
Pattern Of Violation
Copyright – FTR 2013 14
This is the total if Federal agencies do what they say they will do.
Source: FTR, Transport Economics, TransSafe Consulting
0
200
400
600
20
11
.1
20
11
.3
20
12
.1
20
12
.3
20
13
.1
20
13
.3
20
14
.1
20
14
.3
20
15
.1
20
15
.3
20
16
.1
20
16
.3
Hir
es
(00
0)
Pattern Of Violation
Employee Free Choice
Safe Food Transportation
Motor Carrier Protection Act
HOS
ELB
Health Regulations and Treatment
Immigration Effects
Mexico
Regional Equipment
CSA
November 2013
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HOS is the biggest single shock to the system.
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
Hir
ers
Incremental Hires Due To Regulation Electronic Stability controls
Speed limiters
Safe Harbor
OSHA Worker Protection
Minimum Insurance
Entry Proficiency
Training Provisions Driver Effect
Drug & Alcohol Data Base
Prohibition Of Coercion
Pattern Of Violation
Copyright – FTR 2013 15
But an unprecedented collection of very significant changes are on the
horizon.
Source: FTR, Transport Economics, TransSafe Consulting
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
20
11
.1
20
11
.3
20
12
.1
20
12
.3
20
13
.1
20
13
.3
20
14
.1
20
14
.3
20
15
.1
20
15
.3
20
16
.1
20
16
.3
Hir
ers
Pattern Of Violation
Employee Free Choice
Safe Food Transportation
Motor Carrier Protection Act
HOS
ELB
Health Regulations and Treatment
Immigration Effects
Mexico
Regional Equipment
CSA
November 2013
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The threat has been pushed out but magnified.
100,000
150,000
200,000
Dri
ve
rsIncremental Driver Hires Due to Regulation
Forecast Changes
Copyright – FTR 2013 16
2012 was quiet due to postponement of CSA fleet safety ratings.
Sources: FTR, Transportation Economics, TransSafe
Consulting
-50,000
0
50,000
20
11
.1
20
11
.2
20
11
.3
20
11
.4
20
12
.1
20
12
.2
20
12
.3
20
12
.4
20
13
.1
20
13
.2
20
13
.3
20
13
.4
20
14
.1
20
14
.2
20
14
.3
20
14
.4
20
15
.1
20
15
.2
20
15
.3
20
15
.4
20
16
.1
20
16
.2
20
16
.3
20
16
.4
Dri
ve
rs
September 2013 September 2012 December 2010
November 2013
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Working capacity utilization is very high.
90%
95%
100%
105%
Active Capacity Utilization
Copyright – FTR 2013 17
The industry has been managing capacity progressively tighter.
Sources: FTR
80%
85%
90%
19
92
.2
19
93
.3
19
94
.4
19
96
.1
19
97
.2
19
98
.3
19
99
.4
20
01
.1
20
02
.2
20
03
.3
20
04
.4
20
06
.1
20
07
.2
20
08
.3
20
09
.4
20
11
.1
20
12
.2
20
13
.3
November 2013
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FTR calculates shortage and surplus by cycle and
regulatory causes.
(150,000)(100,000)
(50,000)-
50,000 100,000 150,000
Dri
ve
rsCumulative Shortage or Surplus
Copyright – FTR 2013 18
This time the shortage is regulatory driven. Last time it was the economic
cycle.
Sources: FTR
(300,000)(250,000)(200,000)(150,000)
20
00
.1
20
01
.1
20
02
.1
20
03
.1
20
04
.1
20
05
.1
20
06
.1
20
07
.1
20
08
.1
20
09
.1
20
10
.1
20
11
.1
20
12
.1
20
13
.1
Dri
ve
rs
Cyclical Regulatory
November 2013
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It helps to look at total population utilization too.
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
Active & Total Capacity Utilization
Copyright – FTR 2013 19
Total capacity utilization speaks to the supply of trucks parked “against the
fence”
Sources: FTR
70%
75%
80%
19
92
.2
19
93
.3
19
94
.4
19
96
.1
19
97
.2
19
98
.3
19
99
.4
20
01
.1
20
02
.2
20
03
.3
20
04
.4
20
06
.1
20
07
.2
20
08
.3
20
09
.4
20
11
.1
20
12
.2
20
13
.3
Total Active
November 2013
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Price moves when both indices are high.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
QO
Q W
/O F
ue
l
Ca
pa
city
Uti
liza
tio
on
Active & Total Capacity Utilization & Price
Copyright – FTR 2013 20
Price moves when capacity utilization moves!
Sources: FTR, ATA
-30%
-20%
-10%
65%
70%
75%
80%
19
92
.2
19
93
.3
19
94
.4
19
96
.1
19
97
.2
19
98
.3
19
99
.4
20
01
.1
20
02
.2
20
03
.3
20
04
.4
20
06
.1
20
07
.2
20
08
.3
20
09
.4
20
11
.1
20
12
.2
20
13
.3
QO
Q W
/O F
ue
l
Ca
pa
city
Total Active Price
November 2013
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After a pause this year, truckload costs are projected to
increase in 2014
80
100
120
140
160
180
Fuel
Margin
Equipment
Truckload Costs($/Loaded Mile, OTR; Index: 2003=100)
Copyright – FTR 2013 21
Fuel could be a major variable
Sources: FTR, Transportation Economics, TransSafe
Consulting
November 2013
-17.8% 7.5% 10.2% 3.4% -0.2% 4.1%
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F
Equipment
Overhead
Labor
Source: Transport Fundamentals, FTR; Copyright 2013
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Pricing began to move this summer.
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%
ATA Truckload Pricing
Copyright – FTR 2013 22
Be careful of YOY data.
Sources: FTR, ATA
-20%-15%-10%
-5%
QOQ YOY
November 2013
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Some thoughts going forward
• Industry will not add capacity until pricing improves
• Trucking costs are increasing in almost every major category – except (importantly) fuelmajor category – except (importantly) fuel
• Driver wages will need to rise significantly from current levels (approx $40-50K annual)
• Consolidation is occurring to some extent
– Knight + USA Truck
– Heartland + Gordon
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Be careful what you wish for
• True shortage of truck capacity would trigger
serious consideration of size and weight mods
– MAP-21 mandated FHWA to conduct a
“Comprehensive Truck Size and Weight Study”,
currently underway, due Nov. 2014
“Comprehensive Truck Size and Weight Study”,
currently underway, due Nov. 2014
• Shippers are major impetus
• Different segments want different configurations
• Most likely (97,000 lb./6 axle) would impact loose
car network & shortlines most strongly
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Freight Focus
Shippers Update
Rail Update
25
Rail Update
Intermodal Update
Trucking Update
www.FTRintel.com/TU
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Larry GrossSenior Consultant, FTR
Thanks!
Senior Consultant, FTR
President, Gross Transportation
Consulting
Contact Info: