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Relations Between National Research Investment Input and Publication Output: Application to an American Paradox. R. D. Shelton. Sponsored by a sabbatical from Loyola and NSF Grant ENG-0423742. What’s the Problem?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Relations Between National Research Investment Input and Publication Output: Application to an American ParadoxR. D. Shelton

    Sponsored by a sabbatical from Loyola and NSF Grant ENG-0423742

  • Whats the Problem?European Paradox is the perceived failure of Europe to cash in on its leadership of science publishingI use "American Paradox" to mean the long term decline in U.S. share of science publishing, despite world-leading investments in R&D, particularly as that decline has become worseWhy is todays subjectThe methods are also useful for other countries; e.g. the EU is developing the same syndrome

  • The American Paradox: Declining SCI Paper Shares Despite Huge R&D Investments (GERD*)

    *Gross domestic expenditures on R&D (OECD Constant $ PPP), paper share from NSI CD 2004.

    Paper Share %NSF analyzed paradox for 6 years.

    GERD $Billions320

    160

    Chart1

    18.187439.74

    20.29147539.57

    22.60077539.03

    25.71862539.3

    28.804739.05

    30.1404538.88

    31.66662538.78

    33.55052538.61

    35.556438.5

    38.09717538.55

    40.3469538.83

    41.45867537.86

    41.53662538.16

    42.40312537.07

    46.0192537.01

    49.44802535.82

    53.177235.28

    57.02712534.73

    61.3689534.18

    66.94187533.94

    69.4550533.98

    69.0650533.55

    73.1093533.43

    US GERD

    US Paper Share

    Sheet1

    From ISI 2006

    1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198132.321396064319611USAall fields198139.55170826431961

    2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198232.391434884429662USAall fields198239.39174505442966

    3EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198332.621474044519413USAall fields198338.86175626451941

    4EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198432.421467014525404USAall fields198439.14177111452540

    5EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198532.661583224847055USAall fields198538.9188530484705

    6EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198632.911654565027856USAall fields198638.73194750502785

    7EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198733.111662125020027USAall fields198738.65194016502002

    8EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198832.761708715216258USAall fields198838.48200709521625

    9EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198933.211802105426529USAall fields198938.33207993542652

    10EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199033.418629955778910USAall fields199038.41214249557789

    11EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199133.7119193356944011USAall fields199138.69220323569440

    12EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199234.3720858460686012USAall fields199237.74229036606860

    13EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199335.0821060760031213USAall fields199338.02228268600312

    14EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199436.7423347663543114USAall fields199436.96234849635431

    15EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199537.0124631366552115USAall fields199536.89245509665521

    16EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199637.8825606267603116USAall fields199635.71241411676031

    17EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199738.3826131268085517USAall fields199735.19239596680855

    18EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199839.3927850370700618USAall fields199834.61244664707006

    19EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199939.3428367272109619USAall fields199934.06245630721096

    20EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200039.4328314271805920USAall fields200033.81242790718059

    21EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200139.4429061473691121USAall fields200133.87249569736911

    22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200238.9128525473307622USAall fields200233.44245111733076

    23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200338.5630746979734423USAall fields200333.34265808797344

    24EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200437.9729119576698124USAall fields200433.21254740766981

    25EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200537.833367888286025USAall fields200532.7288714882860

    GERD

    INDICATOR: 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D -- GERD (million current PPP $)

    1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    EU25............................138545.1144346.5151113.6158447.8169207.7182728.5194898.6205171.8211252.8....

    EU1556911.5..66437.172177.380180.585237.591770.498690106948.8115239.5121281.3123770.4125963.8128859.5133650.4139159.1145364.8152508.9163028.1176039.5187664.6197664.2203519.6....

    INDICATOR: 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D -- GERD (million current PPP $)

    1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

    United States72749.681165.990403.1102874.5115218.8120561.8126666.5134202.1142225.6152388.7161387.8165834.7166146.5169612.5184077197792.1212708.8228108.5245475.8267767.5277820.2276260.2292437.4312535.4..

    Paper Share

    from 2006 CD

    EU2532.3232.3932.6232.4232.6632.9133.1132.7633.2133.433.7134.3735.0836.7437.0137.8838.3839.3939.3439.4339.4438.9138.5637.9737.8

    US39.5539.3938.8639.1438.938.7338.6538.4838.3338.4138.6937.7438.0236.9636.8935.7135.1934.6134.0633.8133.8733.4433.3433.2132.7

    Paper Share

    from 2004 CD

    EU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22

    US39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43

    GERDEU1556.911566.437172.177380.180585.237591.770498.69106.9488115.2395121.2813123.7704125.9638128.8595133.6504139.1591145.3648152.5089163.0281176.0395187.6646197.6642203.5196....

    US72.749681.165990.4031102.8745115.2188120.5618126.6665134.2021142.2256152.3887161.3878165.8347166.1465169.6125184.077197.7921212.7088228.1085245.4758267.7675277.8202276.2602292.4374312.5354..

    GERD/4EU1514.22787516.60927518.04432520.04512521.30937522.942624.672526.737228.80987530.32032530.942631.4909532.21487533.412634.78977536.341238.12722540.75702544.00987546.9161549.4160550.8799

    US18.187420.29147522.60077525.71862528.804730.1404531.66662533.55052535.556438.09717540.3469541.45867541.53662542.40312546.0192549.44802553.177257.02712561.3689566.94187569.4550569.0650573.1093578.13385

    Paper ShareEU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22

    2004 CDUS39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43

    1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198130.58133006434969

    2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198230.88137690445949

    3EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198330.94140685454746

    4EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198430.78140158455295

    5EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198531.22152273487682

    6EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198631.49159279505851

    7EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198731.74160195504640

    8EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198831.39164572524364

    9EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198931.82173609545609

    10EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199032.09179990560819

    11EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199132.41185534572530

    12EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199233.13202089609955

    13EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199333.71203318603190

    14EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199434.78222021638384

    15EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199535.04234110668182

    16EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199635.85243042677996

    17EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199736.38248520683063

    18EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199837.36264816708862

    19EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199937.23269262723210

    20EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200037.22268418721087

    21EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200137.19275149739891

    22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200236.59269215735834

    23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200336.22289471799147

    24USAall fields198139.74172836434969

    25USAall fields198239.57176452445949

    26USAall fields198339.03177469454746

    27USAall fields198439.3178937455295

    28USAall fields198539.05190460487682

    29USAall fields198638.88196657505851

    30USAall fields198738.78195707504640

    31USAall fields198838.61202466524364

    32USAall fields198938.5210036545609

    33USAall fields199038.55216194560819

    34USAall fields199138.83222306572530

    35USAall fields199237.86230936609955

    36USAall fields199338.16230155603190

    37USAall fields199437.07236625638384

    38USAall fields199537.01247280668182

    39USAall fields199635.82242828677996

    40USAall fields199735.28240989683063

    41USAall fields199834.73246160708862

    42USAall fields199934.18247213723210

    43USAall fields200033.94244754721087

    44USAall fields200133.98251380739891

    45USAall fields200233.55246885735834

    46USAall fields200333.43267162799147

    Sheet1

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    EU15 GERD

    US GERD

    EU15 Paper Share

    US Paper Share

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • EU Recently Developed the Same SyndromePaper Share %GERD $Billions320160

    Chart1

    14.22787518.187430.5839.74

    198220.29147530.8839.57

    16.60927522.60077530.9439.03

    18.04432525.71862530.7839.3

    20.04512528.804731.2239.05

    21.30937530.1404531.4938.88

    22.942631.66662531.7438.78

    24.672533.55052531.3938.61

    26.737235.556431.8238.5

    28.80987538.09717532.0938.55

    30.32032540.3469532.4138.83

    30.942641.45867533.1337.86

    31.4909541.53662533.7138.16

    32.21487542.40312534.7837.07

    33.412646.0192535.0437.01

    34.78977549.44802535.8535.82

    36.341253.177236.3835.28

    38.12722557.02712537.3634.73

    40.75702561.3689537.2334.18

    44.00987566.94187537.2233.94

    46.9161569.4550537.1933.98

    49.4160569.0650536.5933.55

    50.879973.1093536.2233.43

    EU15 GERD

    US GERD

    EU15 Paper Share

    US Paper Share

    Sheet1

    From ISI 2006

    1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198132.321396064319611USAall fields198139.55170826431961

    2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198232.391434884429662USAall fields198239.39174505442966