quiz 3: review sessionpeople.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pptfiles/val3e/valquiz3review.pdf · ¨...
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QUIZ3:REVIEWSESSION
AswathDamodaran
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Thisquizwillcover…
¨ RelaEveValuaEon¤ DefiniEonalconsistencychecks¤ DistribuEonalcharacterisEcs¤ DriversofmulEples¤ ApplicaEontweaks
¨ PrivatecompanyvaluaEon¤ Discountrateadjustments¤ Cashflowadjustments¤ Post-valuaEonadjustments
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MulEples:ThevariaEons
Numerator = What you are paying for the asset
Denominator = What you are getting in return
Market value of equity Market value for the firmFirm value = Market value of equity
+ Market value of debt
Market value of operating assets of firmEnterprise value (EV) = Market value of equity
+ Market value of debt- Cash
Revenuesa. Accounting revenuesb. Drivers- # Customers- # Subscribers= # units
Earningsa. To Equity investors - Net Income - Earnings per shareb. To Firm - Operating income (EBIT)
Book Valuea. Equity= BV of equityb. Firm= BV of debt + BV of equityc. Invested Capital= BV of equity + BV of debt - Cash
Multiple =
Cash flowa. To Equity- Net Income + Depreciation- Free CF to Equityb. To Firm- EBIT + DA (EBITDA)- Free CF to Firm
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Example:Spring2009(Problem1)
YouhavebeenaskedtoassesstherelaEvevaluaEonsoffourcompanies,withsignificantcrossholdings.YouhavebeenprovidedwiththefollowinginformaEononthecompanies:TheaccounEngnumbers(includingdebt)comefromthefirm’sconsolidatedfinancialstatements,andyoucanassumethatbothminorityholdingsandminorityinterestsareinmarketvalueterms.BasedontheEV/EBITDAraEo,whichofthesefirmsisthecheapestonaconsolidatedbasis,assumingthattheyareequivalentonriskandgrowthcharacterisEcs?
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SoluEon
Company B is the cheapest company.
Since EBITDA does not reflect income from minority holdings, subtract minority holdings.Since EBITDA reflects 100% of consolidated subsidiary’s income, add minority interests.
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DistribuEonalproperEes
¨ AsymmetricdistribuEons:ThedistribuEonforamulEpleacrosscompanieswillnotbesymmetric,sincemulEplescannotbenegaEve.
¨ SummarystaEsEcscanbemisleading:SincealltheoutlierslieononesideofthedistribuEon,theaveragewillbeskewedwellabovetheaverage.
¨ Absoluterulesofthumbbreakdown:TheshiasinthevaluesofmulEplesacrossEmewillmeanthatwhatisalowvalueinoneperiodmaynotbealowoneinthenextperiod.
¨ MulEpleshavenocurrencyabachedtothem:YoucancomparevaluesformulEplesacrossmarkets,thoughyoumayhavetocontrolfordifferencesacrossfirms.
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Example:Spring2011,Problem2
¨ TeleMediaInc.isatelecomcompanythatreportedEBITDAof-$15millioninthelastfiscalyearandisexpectedtohaveacostofcapitalof12%forthenext5years.YouesEmatethatthefirmwillbeahealthytelecomfirmandgenerate$25millioninEBITDAinyear5.a. Ifhealthytelecomstradeat6EmescurrentEBITDAandhavea
costofcapitalof9%,esEmatetheenterprisevalueforTeleMediatoday,assumingthatthefirmmakesittohealth.
b. NowassumethatTeleMediahasissueda5-yearzerocouponbond,currentlytradingat60%offacevalue.Iftheriskfreerateis3%,esEmatetheprobabilitythatthefirmwillsurviveunElyear5andthesurvival-adjustedenterprisevalueforTeleMediatoday.
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SoluEon
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Analysis:DeterminantsofmulEples
Equity Multiple or Firm Multiple
Equity Multiple Firm Multiple
1. Start with an equity DCF model (a dividend or FCFE model)
2. Isolate the denominator of the multiple in the model3. Do the algebra to arrive at the equation for the multiple
1. Start with a firm DCF model (a FCFF model)
2. Isolate the denominator of the multiple in the model3. Do the algebra to arrive at the equation for the multiple
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TheDeterminantsofMulEples…
Value of Stock = DPS 1/(ke - g)
PE=Payout Ratio (1+g)/(r-g)
PEG=Payout ratio (1+g)/g(r-g)
PBV=ROE (Payout ratio) (1+g)/(r-g)
PS= Net Margin (Payout ratio)(1+g)/(r-g)
Value of Firm = FCFF 1/(WACC -g)
Value/FCFF=(1+g)/(WACC-g)
Value/EBIT(1-t) = (1+g) (1- RIR)/(WACC-g)
Value/EBIT=(1+g)(1-RiR)/(1-t)(WACC-g)
VS= Oper Margin (1-RIR) (1+g)/(WACC-g)
Equity Multiples
Firm Multiples
PE=f(g, payout, risk) PEG=f(g, payout, risk) PBV=f(ROE,payout, g, risk) PS=f(Net Mgn, payout, g, risk)
V/FCFF=f(g, WACC) V/EBIT(1-t)=f(g, RIR, WACC) V/EBIT=f(g, RIR, WACC, t) VS=f(Oper Mgn, RIR, g, WACC)
Aswath Damodaran10
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Example:Spring2011,Problem1
DylanInc.isaall-equityfunded,publiclytradedfirmthattradesatapricetobookraEoof1.40.Thefirmisinstablegrowth,growing3%ayearandhasacostofequityof8%.a. EsEmatethereturnonequityforDylanInc.,assuming
thatthefirmiscorrectlypricedatthemoment. b. Thefirmislookingtorestructureitself,bysellingoffits
worstperformingdivisionforhalfofbookvalueandbuyingbackstockwiththeproceeds;thedivisionaccountedfor25%ofthebookvalueofthecompanybutonly10%ofthenetincome.Ifthecostofequityandgrowthrateremainunchanged,esEmatethepricetobookraEoaaerthetransacEon.
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SoluEon
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Analysis:Controllingfordifferences
1. Directcomparisons:Ifthecomparablefirmsare“justlike”yourfirm,youcancomparemulEplesdirectlyacrossthefirmsandconcludethatyourfirmisexpensive(cheap)ifittradesatamulEplehigher(lower)thantheotherfirms.
2. Storytelling:Ifthereisakeydimensiononwhichthefirmsvary,youcantellastorybaseduponyourunderstandingofhowvaluevariesonthatdimension.Anexample:Thiscompanytradesat12Emesearnings,whereastherestofthesectortradesat10Emesearnings,butIthinkitischeapbecauseithasamuchhighergrowthratethantherestofthesector.
3. ModifiedmulEple:YoucanmodifythemulEpletoincorporatethedimensiononwhichtherearedifferencesacrossfirms.
4. StaEsEcaltechniques:Ifyourfirmsvaryonmorethanonedimension,youcantryusingmulEpleregressions(orvariantsthereof)toarriveata“controlled”esEmateforyourfirm.
Aswath Damodaran13
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Example:Spring2012,Problem1
¨ SerengeEHotelsisamulEnaEonalhotelcompanythatgenerated$60millioninaaer-taxoperaEngincome(aaertaxesof40%)andreporteddepreciaEonof$80millioninthemostrecentyear.Thefirmalsoreported$300millioninbookvalueofequity,$300millioninbookvalueofdebtandacashbalanceof$100million.SerengeEhas100millionsharestradingat$7/shareanditsbookvalueofdebtisequaltoitsmarketvalue.a. EsEmatetheEV/EBITDAmulEpleforSerengeEHotels.(1point)b. YouhaverunaregressionofEV/EBITDAformulEnaEonalhotelsand
arrivedatthefollowingoutput:EV/EBITDA=1.60–1.50(Taxrate)+36.00(Returnoninvestedcapital)–0.50
(DebttoEquityraEo)(Allindependentvariablesareenteredasdecimals.Thus,a40%taxrateisenteredas0.40)
IfSerengeEisfairlypriced,relaEvetothesector,esEmatethedebttoequityraEoforthefirm.
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SoluEon
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PrivateCompanyValuaEon:DiscountRateAdjustments
¨ Costofequity:ThebiggestissuethatyouwillfaceinvaluingprivatebusinessesisthatthecostofequitywilldependuponhowdiversifiedthepotenEalbuyerofthebusinessis,withlessdiversifiedbusinessesseeingmoreriskanddemandinghighercostsofequity.
¨ DebtraEo:AsecondaryissueisthatprivatebusinesseshavenomarketvaluesandusingamarketD/EraEocanbeproblemaEc.
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TheBetaConEnuum&DebtSoluEon
Market BetaUsually obtained from publicly traded companies in business
Diversified buyerPublic company or IPO
Total Beta = Market Beta/ Correlation of typical firm in the sector versus market
Buyer invested only on this business
Partially diversified investor: VC or PE firm
Total Beta = Market Beta/ Correlation of VC portfolio versus market
Once you have an unlevered beta or total beta, you can either use the industry average debt ratio, a target debt ratio or an iterated debt ratio (based on your values).
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Privatefirms:TheCashflowchecks
1. Istheownerinvolvedinthebusinessbutnotpayinghimself/herselfasalary?
2. Arethereany“ghost”or“personal”expensesintermingledwithbusinessexpenses?
3. DothereporEngbooksmatchthetaxbooks?4. Isthereakeypersondiscount?5. Isthereapossibilityofataxrateshiaaaerthe
transacEon?
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Example:Spring2012,Problem3
¨ YouareCEOofapubliclytradedcompany,ProExMedia,andthecompanyiscurrentlyallequity-fundedandhasabetaof1.20;thecorrelaEonofthestockwiththemarketis0.40.ProExMediaisexpectedtogeneratenetincomeof$60millionnextyearonbookequityof$1billion;itisastablegrowthcompanythatexpectstogrow3%ayearinperpetuity.Ifyouinvesttherestofyourpersonalwealthinit,youbelievethatyoucouldtakethecompanybacktobeingaprivatebusinessandcoulddoubleitsnetincome(withoutchangingthebookequityinvestedortheexpectedgrowthrate).Assumingthatyouplantokeepthebusinessasaprivatelyownedbusinessintheaaermath,evaluatewhetherthistransacEonmakessense.(Theriskfreerateis3%andtheequityriskpremiumis6%)
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SoluEon