quirk @ celc seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...boehm c (1999) hierarchy...

25
Barry Quirk creative approaches urban realities people’s talents CELC seminar Institute for Government 13 March 2014

Upload: others

Post on 12-Jun-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

Barry Quirk

creative����������� ������������������  approachesurban����������� ������������������  realities����������� ������������������   people’s����������� ������������������  talents

CELC seminar Institute for Government

13 March 2014

Page 2: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

the smart cities: Boston, Milan, & Minneapolis

consumer cities: Vancouver

Glaeser - The Triumph of the City

the well managed city: Singaporethe growing city: Chicago, Kuala Lumpar, Hyderabad

the Imperial city: Tokyo

the global cities: New York, London, Paris

(the green city: Melbourne)

Biggest 20 cities in the world: Shanghai, Lagos, Karachi, Istanbul, Mumbai, Moscow, Sao Paulo, Beijing, Guangzhou, Delhi, Lahore, Shenzhen, Dhaka, Seoul, Jakarta, Kinshasa, Tianjin, Chennai, Tokyo, Cairo - London is 25th!

and then there’s Dubai!

Page 3: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

Wandsworth Bromley Newham

Page 4: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

up 1.9m to 2041 175,000 increase in children

1,100,000 increase in working age pop 635,000 increase in those over 65 yrs

NewhamBarnet

Tower HamletsRedbridge

EnfieldHillingdon

B&DBrent

W ForestCroydonHackney

HounslowLewisham

EalingSouthwark

LambethHavering

GreenwichIslingtonBromleyHaringeyHarrowCamden

Sutton Merton

WandsworthBexley

WestminsterKingston

H&FK&CCity 2

213

3840

4446474848

58606161

6565

696970

7377

7981

8386

8890

97101

108116

119

borough����������� ������������������  population����������� ������������������  growth����������� ������������������  to����������� ������������������  2041

source: GLA Intelligence Trend-based population projections - results, February 2014

’000s

net annual migration flows domestic: -90,000

international: +75,000

Page 5: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

Evan����������� ������������������  Davis:����������� ������������������  London����������� ������������������  v����������� ������������������  the����������� ������������������  rest

London has talent and

attracts yet more talent:

from the UK & internationally

London's agglomeration economies makes everyone even

more productive+29%

only 10% derives from scale economies

(City A is double the size of City B but only 2% more productive)

Page 6: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

dominant tenure at LSOA level

Page 7: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

4244 47

47

50

5158

61

118 144

1,369

£billions of housing equity valueLondon

BirminghamManchester

Glasgow

BristolLeeds

Reading

Newcastle

Edinburgh

based on - Dorling D (2014) All That Is Solid, p 181

Sheffield

Portsmouth

the top 10 UK cities (by value) outside London comprise just 48%

of London’s overall equity value

Zipf distribution curve of English cities suggest “second order cities are simply

too small in population terms

Page 8: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

sources����������� ������������������  of����������� ������������������  income����������� ������������������  inequality?

2010 - 8,000 new medical students, 55% were women !2010 - 20,000 new law students; 62% were women

60% of inner London’s workers are graduates

index����������� ������������������  of����������� ������������������  specialisation

“assortative����������� ������������������  mating”*

1

3

2 housing����������� ������������������  wealth����������� ������������������  ����������� ������������������  & asset

hoardinghalf of all forecast growth

*����������� ������������������  the����������� ������������������  tendency����������� ������������������  of����������� ������������������  people����������� ������������������  to����������� ������������������  pair����������� ������������������  with����������� ������������������  others����������� ������������������  similar����������� ������������������  to����������� ������������������  themselves����������� ������������������  (such����������� ������������������  as����������� ������������������  when����������� ������������������  graduates����������� ������������������  marry����������� ������������������  graduates)

Page 9: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

agglomeration

acculturation

acceleration

economy

culture

society

accumulationcapital

urban dynamics

Page 10: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

social����������� ������������������  acceleration

technical acceleration

acceleration of the pace of life

acceleration of social change

the economic motor: “time is money”

the cultural motor: “the promise of quicker”

the social motor: “generational pace”

“it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.

If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

redQueen

effect

The

Page 11: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

£265m schools

£200m acute health

£375m health

£100m HRA

£395m (gross)

£80m University

£40m College

£15m Fire£80m

Police

£15m neighbourhood

policing

£285m Council

services & functions

£190m Council

services & functions

£2.5bn across London

£400m across London

Borough����������� ������������������  public����������� ������������������  spending

Page 12: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

100

schoolshealth

Council

the����������� ������������������  trajectory����������� ������������������  of����������� ������������������  spend

Page 13: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

merging functions

sharing services

defter demand management

smarter supply management

reducing����������� ������������������  costs����������� ������������������  by����������� ������������������  ...

trimming back

radical redesign of public services

boosting productivity:

new mix of labour & technology

de-layering

Page 14: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

DESIGN:����������� ������������������  turning����������� ������������������  lemons����������� ������������������  into����������� ������������������  lemonade����������� ������������������  

Page 15: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

culture

behavioursstrategy

values

motivations

leadership

accountabilities

goals

disciplines

rewards

politicsplans

“a����������� ������������������  mass����������� ������������������  of����������� ������������������  critical����������� ������������������  people”

creative imagination

disciplined execution

customer oriented

adaptability

problem solving

results focus

team working

rapid learning

sunny disposition

persistence

integrity

energetic

Page 16: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

so����������� ������������������  what's����������� ������������������  our����������� ������������������  role?intellectual energy

emotional labour

setting direction !

building capability !

maintaining momentum !

nurturing confidence

Page 17: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

career development !

opportunity for initiative Council treats all staff fairly

!ability to give feedback about work team and service

being sufficiently challenged by work

line managers’ support through changes receive the learning needed to do job well

!autonomy !

confidence that senior managers are open & honest about change line manager encourages staff to improve performance

top 5

next 5

top����������� ������������������  issues����������� ������������������  for����������� ������������������  our����������� ������������������  staff

Page 18: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

capabilities����������� ������������������  ...the challenge of flexible specialisation

the decline of "craft" and the rise of service

professionalism and trust; trusted advisors differ from trusted providers

Page 19: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

doubt hubris

the right amount of

confidence

the right sense of personal, team and collective efficacy

Page 20: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

changing services for the better

choosing the right strategies

culture eats strategy for breakfast

people's repeated behaviours builds their

dominant culture

people based solutions that empowers talent, boosts productivity and builds a positive culture for progressive change

design led innovation that seeks radically new ways to co-produce

solutions to local problems & needs

functional "best practices" evidence-based approaches to achieving

desired outcomes

Page 21: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

talent

it’s more than finding useful minions

Page 22: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

the����������� ������������������  egalitarian����������� ������������������  leader?

Gorilla Chimpanzee Bonobo Humans

reverse dominance hierarchy

K2P is the estimation of the evolutionary distance between species

Page 23: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

conduct that

encourages others to act responsibly in the

public interest, so that they

achieve more together

than they would have achieved separately and/or on their own.”

what����������� ������������������  is����������� ������������������  public����������� ������������������  leadership?

Page 24: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

the����������� ������������������  Leader’s����������� ������������������  relationship����������� ������������������  to����������� ������������������  others

Page 25: Quirk @ CELC seminarbarryquirk.com/assets/the-dynamics-of-london---people...Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA! Boehm C (2012)

referencesBaumol W (2012) The Cost Disease, Yale University Press!

Boehm C (1999) Hierarchy in the Forest: the evolution of egalitarian behaviour, Cambridge MA!

Boehm C (2012) Moral Origins: evolution of virtue, altruism and shame, Basic Books!

Centre for Cities (2014) Cities Outlook 2014!

Collins J & Hansen M (2011) Great By Choice, Random House!

Dorling D (2014) All That Is Solid, Allen Lane!

Dunleavy P & Carrera L (2013) Growing the Productivity of Government Services, Elgar!

Glaeser E (2011) The Triumph of the City, Pan!

Harvey D (2012) Rebel Cities, Verso!

Hennig B (2013) MegaCity London: ever growing, ever more unequal, www.viewsoftheworld.net !

Kelley T & D (2013) Creative Confidence, IDEO!

London Data Store, 2011 Census & GLA population projections!

Rosa H (2013) Social Acceleration: a new theory of modernity, Columbia University Press