quantitative report - political poll
TRANSCRIPT
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7/28/2019 Quantitative Report - Political Poll
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Conducted by:
10th April 2013
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7/28/2019 Quantitative Report - Political Poll
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Ascertain the choice of vote of target
audience in upcoming elections.
Gauge the perceptions of people
about different political parties.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
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The quantitative research technique ofdoor to door surveywas used to obtain the
requisite information.
Punjab, KPK and Karachi was divided into 6 regions based on their geographical/
population wise segmentation.
In order to include maximum representation of Districts, the targeted areas in 13
regions were selected on random basis.
To examine the data analytically, the sample was further sub-divided into Gender,
Age group, Socio Economic Class and Rural/Urban split.
Agency developed the questionnaire to include a representative sample in this study.
`Proper training was given to the interviewers through briefing/mock sessions. The successful/backup
interviewers were selected from that pool.
The questionnaire was pre-tested prior to its induction for the fieldwork. A minimum number (10) of
questionnaires were pre-tested to check for comprehension and flow.
A team of experienced interviewers conducted interviews at households (Door-to-door survey) only. Theinterviews with the target respondents using a structured questionnaire in Urdu.
Interviews were conducted with those respondents only who were willing to poll their vote in
upcoming elections.
To ensure the data authenticity, strict field controls were used during the field work of this study.
Customized computer checks were also incorporated during data entry process and at least 5% randomly
selected questionnaires were double punched to ensure data accuracy.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
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Respondent Profile
Respondents Male/Female
Single/Married
Age Group 18 years of more
SEC A,B,C,D and E
Criteria
Registered voter of Pakistan
Willing to cast his/her vote in upcoming
elections
TARGET RESPONDENT
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Punjab, KPK and Karachi was divided into 6 regions based on their Geographical/
Population wise segmentation. Those regions were further divided into 13 areas based on their
weighted population. The sample was through random selection of Tehsils in each area. The
randomly selected Tehsils were further bifurcated into rural and urban vicinities.
DETERMININGTHE SAMPLE SIZE
For each targeted area in the region (from which the sample was drawn), sample size was
determined at 95% confidence interval with 5.78% margin of error.
The proposed sample per areas was 289.
A door to door survey was conducted in Punjab, KPK and Karachi from March 27 to April
05, 2013 among 3,471 respondents, belonging to SEC A, B, C, D and E households in thetargeted regions of Pakistan while maintaining the quota of Gender, Age group and
Urban/Rural population.
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SAMPLE SPLIT
Note: The devised sample has been rounded off.
Regions Total Interviews
Seraiki Belt 578
Pothohar Belt 289
Rest of Punjab 1,445
Hazara belt 290
KPK 579
Karachi 290
Total 3,471
Punjab
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SNAPSHOTPOLITICAL POLL
With reference to choice of political party in upcoming elections, on an overall basis, a majority of
the respondents equally preferred to vote for PML (N) and PTI (38% each). The growth of popularity
of PTI has increased by 50% in Punjab (mainly in Seraiki belt and Pothohar belt); however, in rest of
Punjab areas, PML (N) is still the most popular choice for vote in upcoming elections. It is
worthwhile to note that, PTI is the most popular party to vote for in both KPK and Hazara Belt as
compared to PML (N).
On an overall basis, with respect to most popular leader, Imran Khan is ahead of Nawaz Sharif with a
margin of 3%.
The overall satisfaction with the performance of both the leading parties, namely PML (N) and PTI,
is almost similar for that period.
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PML (N) : 38%
PTI : 38%
PPP : 10%
MQM : 4%
Jamat e Islami : 3%
PML (Q) : 2%
ANP : 1%
JUI (F) : 1%
Others : 1%
Undecided : 2%
n = 3,471
CHOICEOF PARTYIN UPCOMING ELECTIONS
Overall
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7/28/2019 Quantitative Report - Political Poll
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6%
1%
1%
1%
1%
3%
3%
8%
37%
39%
Dont Know
Others
ANP
PML (Q)
JUI (F)
MQM
Jamat e Islami
PPP
PTI
PML (N)
n = 3,471
Imran Khan : 36%
Nawaz Sharif : 33%
Shehbaz Sharif : 6%
Bilawal Bhutto : 3%
Yousaf Raza Gillani : 2%
Asif Zardari : 1%
Altaf Hussain : 1%
Pervaiz Elahi : 1%
Munawar Hussain : 1%
Others : 1%
Dont know : 15%
n = 3,471
EXPECTATIONSOF UPCOMING ELECTIONS
Next Prime Minister of PakistanWinning Political Party of Upcoming Elections (Overall)
Overall
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6% 7%
60%
30%38%
12% 8%
16%
28%
31%
18% 22%
10%37%
24%
29%32%
8%
4% 5%
35%31%
6%1% 2%
Completely Satisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Neither Satisfied nor Dissatisfied
Somewhat Disatisfied
Completely Disatisfied
Mean Value
(Out of 5 - Closest to 5 is best)3.76 3.73
PML (N) PTI
n = 3,471
LEVELOF SATISFACTIONFROMTHE PERFORMANCEOF POLITICAL PARTIES
1.84 2.18 2.01
PPP ANP MQM
Overall
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3%
11%
25%
61%
Completely Agree
Somewhat Agree
Neither Agree nor Disagree
Somewhat Disagree
Completely Disagree
Mean Value
(Out of 5 - Closest to 5 is best)4.44
n = 3,471
INFLUENCEOFA PARTY BEING DEMOCRATICON CHOICEOF VOTE
Overall
To what extent to you agree/disagree with the statement that
A party being democratic will influence your choice of vote.
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5% 4%
52%
28%36%
10%8%
18%
28%
29%
21%26%
15%38%
28%
33% 32%
10%
5% 5%
31% 30%
5%1% 2%
Completely Democratic
Somewhat Democratic
Neither Democratic nor Non-Democratic
Somewhat Non-Democratic
Completely Non-Democratic
Mean Value
(Out of 5 - Closest to 5 is best)3.76 3.72
PML (N) PTI
n = 3,471
PERCEPTIONOFTHE PARTY BEING DEMOCRATIC
1.98 2.23 2.07
PPP ANP MQM
Overall
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EVALUATIONOF POLITICAL PARTYS SPOKESPERSONSON TV TALK SHOWS
Political party
having bestspokesperson
Best
spokesperson
irrespective ofpolitical party
PML (N) 14%
PTI 11%
PPP 2%
MQM 1%
PML (Q) 1%
All are same 11%
Dont know 13%
Dont watch TV 15%
Dont watch political talk shows 32%
Saad Rafique 9%
Khawaja Asif 5%
Nisar Ahmad 5%
Shah Mehmood Qureshi 4%
Sharmeela Farooqi 4%
Mushahid Ullah 3%
Javed Hashmi 2%
Shakeel Awan 2%
Haneef Abasi 2%
Siddiq-ul-Farooq 2%
Jahangir Tareen 1%
Asad Umar 1%
Shafqat Mehmood 1%
Mehmood-ur-Rasheed 1%
Arif Alvi 1%
Fozia Kasuri 1%
Andleeb Abbas 1%
Others 7%
All are same 14%Dont know 34%
n = 3,471n = 1,856
Overall
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