Quantitative Analysis Dr. Said El Khouly

•Maria Bou Bakr•Mohamed Allam•Mohamed Ghareeb•Ahmed Ibrahim•Motaz Hegazy

Group: Eslsca 29B

Raya IT Raya IT Leading Technology SolutionsLeading Technology Solutions

Three operations: retail, distribution, and maintenance/warranty services

Two product groups: Personal Mobility & IT products

Trade Call Center

Prospecting / Customer Acquisition

Channel Development

Campaign Management

Serving Local & International clientsRegional Presence/Client Base

Algeria, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Iraq, Nigeria, U.S.A, Canada, Europe, UK, and

Australia

Infrastructure solutions

Business applications and solutions

IT Outsourced services (Software Engineering and e-Payment)

Information Technology

Scope of Operations

What is Forecasting?

Forecasting Definition

It is scientific process of estimating and Predict in advance.

It is NOT just a guess.

Why are we interested? Forecasts provide helpful information to make better decisions. Forecasting is easier and cheaper now

Forecasting Models Simple Moving Average

A simple, or arithmetic, moving average that is calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods

Weighted Moving Average A type of moving average that assigns a higher weighting to recent price data than does the

common simple moving average. This average is calculated by taking each of the closing prices over a given time period and multiplying them by its certain position in the data series

Smoothing Moving Average A Smoothed Moving Average is sort of a cross between a SMA and an

Exponential Moving Average, only with a longer period applied. The Smoothed Moving Average gives the recent prices an equal weighting to the historic ones

Seasonal Index It indicates the changes in the behavior of the numbers.

Consolidated Income Statement for Years 2008, 2007, 2006.

Forecasting - SMA

Actual Net Profit

2006 67 M

2007 94 M

2008 53 M

SMA for 2009 is: 71 M

Forecasting - WMA

Actual Net Profit

W A * W

2006 67 M .15 10,050,000

2007 94 M .35 32,900,000

2008 53 M .50 26,500,000

WMA for 2009 is: 69 M

Forecasting – Smoothing Average

Actual Net Profit

SF (t)

2006 67 M 67 M

2007 94 M 67 M

2008 53 M 72 M

SF (t+1) = SF (t) +ᵅ (A t -SF t)

Smoothing Average for 2009 is: 68 M

Comparison

SMA for 2009 is: 71 M

WMA for 2009 is: 69 M

Smoothing Average for 2009 is: 68 M

Thank you