quantifying the benefits of flood and coastal erosion risk management - stakeholder ... ·...
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Quantifying the benefits of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management - stakeholder and community engagement and modelling, mapping and data
Appendix 1 - Model evolution
Report – SC130008/R2 Science Report
OUTPUT
(Tangible or measurable)
SCE / MMD ACTIVITY OR
PROCESS
A Dependency link
B ‘B’ depends on ‘A’ ‘A’ contributes to ‘B’
Key to models
Important influence Outside
MMD or SCE control
MODIFIER Applies to more than one
node
Link from other model SCE or MMD
A1.1 Model evolution – modelling, mapping and data
A1.1.1 Qualitative model
Imp
rove o
utco
mes - m
anag
e risks, red
uce co
nseq
uen
ces
En
able o
thers to
bu
ild resilien
ce
Increase th
e resilience o
f peo
ple, p
rop
erty and
bu
sinesses to
th
e risks of flo
od
ing
and
coastal ero
sion
Better u
nd
erstand
risks and
th
eir man
agem
ent
Outcome 1 ‘Impact
reduction’
OUTCOME 2 ‘Confidence &
awareness leading to
action’
Imp
rove E
A
Decisio
n M
aking
M
ore
Efficien
t§
SCE: Local Priorities &
Local Funding
Build / Commission Local Models
Develop Modelling Guidance
Manage Modelling
Data
Interpret & Aggregate
Local Models NAFRA
National Risk Register &
CCRA
Regulated Maps (flood & erosion)
Planning and Development
Guidance
Prioritized Investment Schemes
Detailed Scheme
Proposals
Maintain / Refine Local
Models
Predict Communities At Risk
Visualizations of MMD outputs
Coastal Erosion
Assessments
Real Time Forecasting & Flood Warning
System
Permitting Consents
CFMPs and FRMPs
Operational Rules
Maintenance Priorities
LTIS Central Govt
Advice
Internal Partners
External Partners
Economic & Environmental
Appraisal Processes
Collate Data
Analyze and QA Data
SCE: Local Know
ledge &
Real Experience
How to Model
What to Model
SCE: Local MP briefing
SCE: Consult & reality check
SCE: Consult & reality check
MMD qualitative model Pre-Workshop 2
Build / Commission
Local Models & Data
Develop Modelling
Programme
Manage Existing Models & Data
Identify Data Gaps
Modelling Standards &
Guidance
Modelling Wish List: What and
Where
MMD Programme
Build / Commission
National Models & Data
External Partners
Internal Partners
Third Party Modelling
Advice
Understand climate change
QA of outputs
Interpret & communicat
e
National Model & Results
Local Models & Results
QA of outputs
Interpret & communicat
e
Data types: Assets Receptors Vulnerabilities Etc …
MMD qualitative model Page 1: Activities leading to the production of Local and National Models Pre-Workshop 3
LTIS
Central Govt Advice
National Model & Results
Local Models & Results
Maintenance Priorities
Prioritized Investment Schemes
Detailed Scheme
Proposals
Refine Local Models
Real Time Forecasts
Real Time Warnings
Regulated Maps (flood & erosion)
Emergency Plans
Emergency Plan
Activations
National Risk Register &
CCRA
Planning and Development
Guidance
Permitting Consents
COBRA Activations
Operational Response
Operational Rules
Sharing with 3rd Parties
Insurers Value Added Resellers
Open Data
Sharing with 3rd Parties
Sharing with 3rd Parties
Individual & Community Awareness
LA Coastal Erosion
Assessments
Economic & Environmental
Appraisal Processes
Local priorities & shared funding
Interpret data in relation to
proposals
Local consultation & reality check
Local consultation & reality check
CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies
Environ-mental data
MMD qualitative model Page 2: The uses made of Local and National Models Pre-Workshop 3
Build / Commission
Local Models & Data
Develop Modelling
Programme
Manage Existing Models & Data
Identify Data Gaps
Modelling Standards &
Guidance
Modelling Wish List: What and
Where
MMD Programme
Build / Commission
National Models & Data
Models shared by external partners
Internal Partners
Third Party Modelling
Advice
Understand climate change
QA of outputs
Interpret & communicat
e
National Model & Results
Local Models & Results
MMD qualitative model Page 1: Activities leading to the production of Local and National Models Post-Workshop 3
QA of outputs
Interpret & communicat
e
Data types: Assets Receptors Vulnerabilities Etc …
LTIS
Govt strategic priorities
National Model & Results
Local Models & Results
Maintenance Priorities
Prioritized Investment Schemes
Detailed Scheme
Proposals
Refine Local Models
Real Time Forecasts
Real Time Warnings
Regulated Maps (flood & erosion)
Emergency Plans
Emergency Plan
Activations
National Risk Register &
CCRA
Planning and Development
Guidance
Permitting Consents
COBRA Activations
Operational Response
Operational Rules
Sharing with 3rd Parties
Insurers Value Added Resellers
Open Data
Sharing with 3rd Parties
Sharing with 3rd Parties
Individual & Community Awareness
LA Coastal Erosion
Assessments
Economic & Environmental
Appraisal Processes
Local priorities & shared funding
Interpret data in relation to
proposals
Local consultation & reality check
Local consultation & reality check
CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies
Environ-mental data
MMD qualitative model Page 2: The uses made of Local and National Models Post-Workshop 3
Reactive advice
Appendix 1.1 – Model evolution – modelling, mapping and data
1.1.2 Final qualitative models
Final MMD qualitative model Page 1: Activities leading to the production of Local and National Models
Final MMD qualitative model Page 2: The uses made of Local and National Models
A1.1 – Model evolution – modelling, mapping and data
A1.1.3 – Simplified model for quantification
Central Govt Advice
National Model & Results
Local Models & Results
Maintenance Priorities
Scheme Proposals
Real Time Forecasts & Warnings
Regulated Maps
Sharing with 3rd Parties
CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies
Simplified modelling, mapping and data model Pre-Workshop 3 - Green bubbles removed (but be aware when estimating probabilities) - Activities combined where linear chains only - Primary outputs listed, but uses of these outputs removed
Modelling Programme
Manage Existing Models & Data
Identified Data Gaps
Modelling Standards &
Guidance
Modelling Wish List: What and
Where
Third Party Modelling
Advice
Manage New Require-ments
Govt strategic priorities
National Model & Results
Local Models & Results
Maintenance Priorities
Scheme Proposals
Real Time Forecasts
Regulated Maps
Sharing with 3rd Parties
CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies
Simplified modelling, mapping and data model Post-Workshop 3
Modelling Programme
Manage Existing Models & Data
Identified Data Gaps
Modelling Standards &
Guidance
Modelling Wish List: What and
Where
Third Party Modelling
Advice
Manage New Require-ments
Emergency planning &
FWAs
Out9: Govt. Strategic Priorities
Out8: Local and National
Models
Out2: Maintenance
Priorities
Out1: Large Scheme
Proposals
Out5: Real Time
Forecasts
Out7: Regulated
Maps
Out3: Shared Model Data and Advice
Out4: Local Strategies
Act3: Deliver Modelling
Programme
Act2: Manage Existing Models
and Data
Act4: Provide Modelling
Standards and Guidance
Act1: Manage New Modeland Data
Requirements
Out6: Emergency
Planning and FWAs
Final modelling, mapping and data model for quantification
A1.2 – Model evolution – stakeholder and community
engagement A1.2.1 Qualitative model
17
Communicate flood
risk
Identify engagement locations/
routes
Engagement planning
‘Lines to take’ & FAQs Social Media, CFP Template Press Releases, Flyers, Plain Englishing Community Newsletters, Published Maps
Engagement Products
(1-way)
SCE qualitative model Pre-Workshop 2
Imp
rove o
utco
mes - m
anag
e risks, red
uce co
nseq
uen
ces
En
able o
thers to
bu
ild resilien
ce
Increase th
e resilience o
f peo
ple, p
rop
erty and
bu
sinesses to
th
e risks of flo
od
ing
and
coastal ero
sion
Better u
nd
erstand
risks and
th
eir man
agem
ent
Outcome 1
‘Impact reduction’
OUTCOME 2
‘Confidence &
awareness leading to
action’
Imp
rove E
A
Decisio
n M
aking
M
ore
Efficien
t
Long Term Strategies & Plans
More EA presence in
flooded areas (not just Ops)
More face2face SCE to reach more at once
Better Flood
Warnings
Flood warning
registration
Communities with
Flood Plans
Communities with Flood
Action Groups
Community based FCERM improvements
Increase flood resilience awareness
Recruit & Meet flood wardens
Brokering relationships
(public/private)
Partner to plan & deliver engagement
Meet Local partners
POST-FLOOD LOCAL ACTION
Increase flood risk & action awareness
Spatial planning
Comment on planning
applications Planning &
development consultations
Comment on strategic
plans Floo
d map
Flood Warnings /
Alerts
Communicate flood risk to partners Communicate flood risk to public
Risk Info for Public & 1st Responders
Respond to customer questions
Enquires about flood risk levels
Flood map
Flood Informatio
n
Incident management
?
Flood Recovery
Direct recovery support
Influencing recovery
plan FLOOD & RECOVERY
Public Consultation Gathering / sharing local insights Events / Confs ‘Spreading the word’ Hosting EA depot open day/surgery Drop-In Sessions Door Knocking Workshops Explaining Data / MMD Conversation
(2-way)
??
Flood scheme technical appraisal
Flood defence works plan & programme
Flood Scheme
Change flood risk category.
EA Asset ????
Gather feedback on maint. plans
Flood scheme opening events
MMD for Community
FCERM Maintenance
Lead local flood authorities Local flood resilience forum Surface Water stakeholders (2-way) Las, IDBs, RFCC, Local MPs, Media
Stakeholders
Identified
Encourage & Empower
communities in local FRCM
Identified priority
communities
Communities @risk output
Understand flood risk Focus EA
resources on highest risk
(RRG / CRCs)
Prioritise community
engagement
Social Environ-mental Political Financial
Understand context
Horizon scanning
Brokering relationships
(public/private)
Negotiate partner funding
Identify funding streams
Efficient Planning Targeting
engagement
Market Research to shape SCE
Evidence of effectiveness of warnings
PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT
Property level
protection
Collate Feedback
Better SCE
Evaluation of SCE activity
Better MMD
Engagement to identify LONG LIST options – who are beneficiaries – contributors – revenue streams EA reduces to SHORT LIST Consult on PREFERRED OPTIONS LIST FLOOD SCHEME OPENING
Social Environmental Political Financial
Understand context Horizon
scanning
Imp
rove outcom
es - man
age
risks, redu
ce conseq
uen
ces
Enab
le others to b
uild
resilien
ce
Increase th
e resilience of p
eople, p
roperty an
d
bu
sinesses to th
e risks of floodin
g an
d coastal erosion
Better u
nd
erstand
risks an
d th
eir man
agem
ent
Outcome 1
‘Impact reduction’
OUTCOME 2
‘Confidence &
awareness leading to
action’
Imp
rove EA
Decision
Makin
g
More
Efficient
DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
SCE AROUND ASSET M’GMENT
EXTNERAL DRIVERS
P.E.S.T.L.E.
EA INTERNAL DRIVERS
P.E.S.T.L.E.
EVIDENCE Market
Research to shape SCE
Collate Feedback
Evaluation of SCE activity
Research
ENGAGEMENT PLANNING
Identify engagement locations/
routes
Engagement planning
Stakeholders Identified
Understand flood risk
Focus EA resources on highest risk
(RRG / CRCs)
Prioritise community engagement
Efficient Planning
Targeting engagement
‘Lines to take’ & FAQs Social Media, CFP Template Press Releases, Flyers, Plain Englishing Community Newsletters, Published Maps
COMMS (1-way)
Public Consultation Gathering / sharing local insights Events / Confs / Public Meetings ‘Spreading the word’ Hosting EA depot open day/surgery Drop-In Sessions Door Knocking Workshops Explaining Data / MMD Responding to enquiries Face2Face meetings Emails and letters Phoning partners
ENGAGEMENT
(2 WAY)
MMD
Evidence of effectiveness of warnings
INCIDENT Community / Stakeholder Informed
Flood Warnings /
Alerts
IMMEDIATE RECOVERY
SCE direct recovery support
Influencing recovery plan
PREPAREDNESS
Better Flood Warnings
Flood warning registration
Communities with Flood
Plans
Communities with Flood
Action Groups Community
driven FCERM improvements
Flood wardens scheme
Flood Information
Property level protection
EA TR
US
T /
REP
UTA
TION
Understand Relevant Risk
Understand Risk
SCE around Asset Mgmt Programme
Communities @risk output Identified
priority communities
SCE on FCERM Strategies &
Plans
SCE around Maintenance Programme
Comment on planning
applications Planning &
development consultations
Comment on strategic
plans
SCE qualitative model End Workshop 2
Communities have Flood
Plans
Communities have Flood
Action Groups & wardens
Encourage Flood warning registration
Flood Warnings improved
PLP implemente
d
Influencing recovery
plan
Support flood
recovery
Flood Warnings / Alerts issued to communities
*
Community / Stakeholder
Informed in a flood
Flood wardens warn/help
communities
Communities know how to respond in a
flood
Properties are protected
in a flood
Communities know how to
respond after a flood
Advise on flood plan
development
Identify communities
at risk *
Advise on flood action group
and flood warden set-up
Those at risk are signed up to warnings
Advise on PLP
Communities receive a warning
Comment preferred options for
community FCERM improvements
Flood scheme built/maintenance undertaken
Consult community on
warnings
(B) SCE before, during & after a flood
Lydia B-G + additions by P Brand
Permits & Consents*
Planning and Development
Guidance
Review & comment on planning &
consultations
Review & process
consents/permits
Consult om capital prog
Maintenance priorities*
Prioritised investment schemes*
Understand Relevant Risk
to communities
Identify communities
at risk *
CFMPs/FRMPs/Strategie
s*
Consult preferred options
Flood scheme built
Maintenance undertaken
or not
(A) SCE role in plans, schemes and maintenance
Engage stakeholders & partners
Target/ prioritise /plan engagement
Identify stakeholders
Consult on maint prog
Influence plans &
strategies
EA Drivers (P.E.S.T.L.E
)
Extneral Drivers
(P.E.S.T.L.E)
Evidence Gathering &
Collation
Strategic Inputs
Identify funding partners or revenue streams
Ou
tcome 1
‘Imp
act redu
ction’
OU
TCO
ME 2
‘Con
fiden
ce & aw
areness lead
ing
to action’
Development
Planning
SCE qualitative model – Developments Post-Workshop 2 - using MMD model style
Communities have Flood
Plans
Communities have Flood
Action Groups & wardens
Encourage Flood warning registration
Flood Warnings improved
PLP implemente
d
Influencing recovery
plan
Support flood
recovery
Flood Warnings / Alerts issued to communities
*
Community / Stakeholder
Informed in a flood
Flood wardens warn/help
communities
Communities know how to respond in a
flood
Properties are protected
in a flood
Communities know how to
respond after a flood
Advise on flood plan
development
Identify communities
at risk *
Advise on flood action group
and flood warden set-up
Those at risk are signed up to warnings
Advise on PLP
Communities receive a warning
Comment preferred options for
commmunity FCERM
improvements
Flood scheme built/maintenance undertaken
Consult community on
warnings
SCE qualitative model – Further developments Post-Workshop 2
(B) SCE before, during & after a flood
Permits & Consents*
Planning and Development Guidance*
Review & comment on planning &
consultations
Review & process
consents/permits
Consult pm capital prog
Maintenance priorities*
Prioritised investment schemes*
Understand Relevant Risk to
communities
Identify communities
at risk *
CFMPs/FRMPs/Strategie
s*
Consult preferred options
Flood scheme built
Maintenance undertaken
or not
Engage stakeholders
Target/prioritise /planengageme
nt
Identify stakeholders
Consult on maint prog
Influence plans &
strategies
(A) SCE role in plans, schemes and maintenance
Complaints responded
to
Post incident / flood recovery engagement
Engagement during flood
incident
Engagement and consultation on
strategic plans and strategies
Engagement on speicfic capital flood scheme
options
Engagement on FCERM
maintenance programmes
Engage and provide advice on flood
resilience measures
Flood action campaign -
delivered through Corporate Affairs
Flood action groups or flood warden scheme
in place
Property level product scheme implemented
Community flood plans developed
Increased flood warning service
sign up
Increased awareness and belief in risk
Improved flood
warnings
Other community led improvements
delivered, e.g. scheme
Engage and deliver
transactional services
Consents granted
Enquiries responded
to
Community aware, knows when to
respond and prepared to take
action
Revised FCERM maintenance programme
Implementation of maintenance
protocol
Identified where others can deliver
maintenance
Public sector cooperation agreements
Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan
Evaluation of engagement
Preferred option for capital scheme
Engagement through delivery
of preferred option
Flood scheme built
FCERM invetsment programme
agreed
Engagement to inform FCERM
investment programme
Need to for capital scheme
Identify what is at risk / output of communities at risk project
P.E.S.T.L.E drivers
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning
Engage external partners
PESTLE / situational
analysis WWO
Evidence / market research
/previous engagement evaluation
Flood incident?
Other community led improvements
identified
Community informed during
incident
Community knows how to respond after a
flood
SCE qualitative model Post-workshop 2
A1.2 – Model evolution – stakeholder and community
engagement A1.2.2 Final qualitative model
Final SCE qualitative model
A1.2 – Model evolution – stakeholder and community
engagement A1.2.3 Simplified model for quantification
Complaints & enquiries
responded to
Post incident / flood recovery engagement
Engagement during flood incident
through ambassadors and communications
Engagement and consultation on
strategic plans and strategies
Engagement on maintenance programme
Engage and provide advice on flood
resilience measures
MMD
Flood action campaign -
delivered through Corporate Affairs
Improved flood
warnings
Other community led improvements
developed & implemented.
scheme
Engage and deliver
transactional services
Consents granted &
planning apps responded to
Community aware, knows when & how
to respond and prepared to take
action
Develop, & implement
maintenance programme
Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan
Evaluation of
engagement
Preferred option selected and
built
Develop & implement
capital programme
Identify what is at risk / output of communities at risk project
P.E.S.T.L.E drivers
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning
Engage external partners
PESTLE / situational
analysis WWO
Evidence / market research / previous
engagement evaluation
Flood incident?
Community informed during
incident
Engagement on Capital
programme
Training & mobilisation of
EA staff not just FCERM
Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model Pre-Workshop 3
Complaints & enquiries
responded to
Post incident / flood recovery engagement
Engagement during flood incident
through ambassadors and communications
Engagement and consultation on
strategic plans and strategies
Engagement on maintenance programme
Engage and provide advice on flood
resilience measures
Improved flood
warnings
Other community led improvements
developed & implemented.
scheme
Engage and deliver
transactional services
Consents granted &
planning apps responded to
Community aware, knows when & how
to respond and prepared to take
action
Develop, & implement
maintenance programme
Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan
Preferred option selected and
built
Develop & implement
capital programme
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning
Community informed during
incident
Engagement on Capital
programme
Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model Pre-Workshop 3 – further development
Complaints & enquiries
responded to
Post incident / flood recovery engagement
Engagement during flood incident
through ambassadors and communications
Engagement and consultation on
strategic plans and strategies
Engagement on maintenance programme
Engage and provide advice on flood
resilience measures
Improved flood
warnings
Other community led improvements
developed & implemented.
scheme
Engage and deliver
transactional services
Consents granted &
planning apps responded to
Community aware, knows when & how
to respond and prepared to take
action
Develop, & implement
maintenance programme
Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan
Preferred option selected and
built
Develop & implement
capital programme
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning
Community informed during
incident
Engagement on Capital
programme
Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model As amended during Workshop 3
Engagement where
maintenance is not being continued
Complaints & enquiries
responded to
Post incident / flood recovery engagement
Engagement during flood incident
through ambassadors and communications
Engagement and consultation on
strategic plans and strategies
Engagement on maintenance programme
Engage and provide advice on flood
resilience measures
Improved flood
warnings
Other community led improvements
developed & implemented.
scheme
Engage and deliver
transactional services
Consents granted &
planning apps responded to
Community aware, knows when & how
to respond and prepared to take
action
Develop, & implement
maintenance programme
Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan
Preferred option selected and
built
Develop & implement
capital programme
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning
Community informed during
incident
Engagement on Capital
programme
Engagement where
maintenance is not being continued
A
B
C D E F I G H
J K L M P N O Q R
S T
Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model As amended during Workshop 3
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning on/during
Capital programme
Plans & strategies
Maintenance programme
During a flood incident
Ad hoc enquiries/complain
ts/consultations’
Flood resilience measures & flood
plans
After a flood incident
Develop & implement programme
Develop revised plans
& strategies
Develop & implement
programme & plans
Community informed during
incident
Improved flood warnings
Community aware, knows when & how to respond
Community led scheme(s)
implemented
Complaints & enquiries
responded to
Consents granted & planning apps responded to
A B
C
D
E
F
H
G
I
J
L
K
M
N
P
O
Q
R
Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model Pre-Workshop 4
Scope of switch D: Nodes C, E and G
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning on/during
Capital programme Plans & strategies
Maintenance programme
During a flood incident
Ad hoc enquiries/complain
ts/consultations’
Flood resilience measures & flood
plans
After a flood incident
Develop & implement programme
Develop revised plans
& strategies
Develop & implement
programme & plans
Community informed during
incident
Improved flood warnings
Community aware, knows when & how to respond
Community led scheme(s)
implemented
Complaints & enquiries
responded to
Consents granted & planning apps responded to
A
B
C D
E
F
H
G
I
J
L
K
M
N
P
O
Q
R PSO Model
SCE in community
with no past flood or
engagement
S
Scope of switch S: All nodes except A, B, I and Q
Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model End Workshop 4
Strategic engagement
planning
Specific community engagement
planning for a given community
Engagement on Capital programme
Plans & strategies
Engagement on Maintenance programme
Engagement During a flood incident
Ad hoc enquiries/complaints/consultations on
planning applications
Engagement before a flood –
preparedness (warning service, community flood
planning)
Engagement After a flood incident
Develop & implement capital
programme
Develop revised plans
& strategies
Develop & implement
maintenance programme & plans
Community informed during
incident
Improved flood warnings
Community aware, knows when/how
to respond, implements local
schemes
Complaints & enquiries
responded to
Consents granted & planning apps responded to
A
B
C D
E
F
H
G
I
J
L
K
M
N/O
P
Q
R PSO Model
SCE in community
with no past flood or
engagement
S
Scope of switch S: All nodes except A, B, I and Q
Scope of switch D: Nodes C, E and G
Final stakeholder & community engagement model for quantification