qnbfs daily technical trader - qatar may 01, 2016
TRANSCRIPT
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6
Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Sunday, 01 May 2016
Today’s Coverage
Ticker Price Target
QEWS 208.80 215.00
NLCS 17.30 18.40
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 10,186.18 0.26 4.8
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 10,250 10,400 10,500
Support 10,100 10,000 9,800
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
The QSE Index inched slightly up last
Thursday. The overall trend in the short
term remains flat but the intraday chart
shows positive motion for the Index that
could continue up.
Expected Resistance Level: 10,250
Expected Support Level: 10,100
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 28 Apr 27 Apr %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 328.6 487.0 -32.5
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 549.5 548.4 0.2
Volume (mn) 10.5 22.3 -52.9
Number of Trans. 5,468 7,564 -27.7
Companies Traded 42 42 0.0
Market Breadth 23:16 17:22 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 16,480.55 0.3 50.7
All Share Index 2,841.16 0.2 51.4
Banks 2,738.18 -0.3 47.4
Industrials 3,151.57 0.3 53.2
Transportation 2,538.22 0.5 52.8
Real Estate 2,551.51 0.9 53.7
Insurance 4,344.01 0.5 41.9
Telecoms 1,162.96 0.6 56.4
Consumer Goods 6,536.96 0.2 49.0
Al Rayan Islamic 3,965.13 0.3 48.9
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QISI 61.50 -2.2 25.7
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6
QEWS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 208.80 -0.29 53,738
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 209.40 215.00 220.00
Support 200.00 195.00 190.00
Commentary
Overview:
We sent a buy recommendation on the 7th
of April. The price reached our first target
of QR210.00, a 2.4% increase from our
trigger price of QR205.00. The name
retreated in a correction and now
stabilized again above the QR205.00. That
been said, the name is challenged by
tough resistance around the QR210.00
level.
Expected Target Price: QR215.00 –
QR220.00
A price breakaway above QR209.40
triggers the buy recommendation.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR200.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6
NLCS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 17.30 2.91 590,713
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 17.95 18.40 19.00
Support 16.70 16.40 15.00
Commentary
Overview:
The name gained over 100% from its
January bottom. Then it corrected to 50%
Fibonacci retracement of that bullish
move. Now, the price has created a bullish
Harami. It is not the strongest of signals,
but when coupled with golden crosses on
its SMAs and positive move on the
intraday Histogram, the story might be
bullish from the current levels.
Expected Target Price: QR18.40 – QR19.00
Only a price breakaway above QR17.95
triggers the buy recommendation.
Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR16.70
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6
Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 10,186.18 10,123.42 10,141.40 10,152.51 10,170.49 10,188.47 10,199.58 10,217.56 10,204.81 9,929.47 10,671.05
Total Return 16,480.55 16,379.03 16,408.12 16,426.08 16,455.17 16,484.26 16,502.22 16,531.31 16,335.72 15,676.42 16,707.86
All Share 2,841.16 2,825.15 2,829.74 2,832.58 2,837.18 2,841.77 2,844.61 2,849.21 2,804.48 2,688.69 2,865.40
Al Rayan Islamic 3,965.13 3,941.88 3,948.94 3,953.30 3,960.36 3,967.42 3,971.78 3,978.84 3,895.79 3,700.97 4,029.01
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 34.20 33.57 33.76 33.88 34.07 34.26 34.38 34.57 35.36 34.99 38.78
CBQK 38.30 37.70 37.89 38.01 38.20 38.39 38.51 38.70 41.86 42.23 48.21
DHBK 36.85 36.52 36.63 36.70 36.82 36.93 37.00 37.12 38.35 39.29 44.76
QIBK 98.20 96.80 97.53 97.97 98.70 99.43 99.87 100.60 101.38 99.66 106.93
QIIK 63.20 62.87 62.98 63.05 63.17 63.28 63.35 63.47 67.92 65.38 70.17
Insurance
QATI 79.90 78.17 78.66 78.97 79.47 79.96 80.27 80.77 81.76 75.14 77.66
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 92.70 91.57 92.14 92.49 93.07 93.64 93.99 94.57 108.28 105.93 134.91
Industrials
IQCD 105.00 103.27 103.76 104.07 104.57 105.06 105.37 105.87 106.54 103.90 114.19
QEWS 208.80 205.20 206.23 206.87 207.90 208.93 209.57 210.60 201.90 200.70 206.86
GISS 34.75 34.18 34.41 34.55 34.78 35.01 35.15 35.38 36.11 39.81 51.51
QIGD 52.90 51.30 51.99 52.41 53.10 53.79 54.21 54.90 46.24 39.19 42.63
Real Estate
BRES 33.80 32.33 32.87 33.20 33.73 34.27 34.60 35.13 35.63 35.70 40.26
UDCD 19.29 19.03 19.14 19.21 19.32 19.43 19.50 19.61 20.11 19.73 21.77
ERES 18.40 18.25 18.33 18.39 18.48 18.56 18.62 18.71 17.36 15.97 17.08
MRDS 14.45 14.12 14.22 14.28 14.39 14.49 14.55 14.66 13.40 12.75 14.22
Telecommunication
ORDS 91.70 88.57 89.90 90.73 92.07 93.40 94.23 95.57 89.12 82.52 78.99
VFQS 12.00 11.75 11.83 11.87 11.94 12.02 12.06 12.13 11.92 11.55 12.83
Transportation
QGTS 23.15 22.78 22.95 23.05 23.23 23.40 23.50 23.68 23.40 22.74 22.90
QNNS 90.50 89.30 89.64 89.86 90.20 90.54 90.76 91.10 92.72 92.04 94.81 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6
Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and
the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower
than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered
a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price
direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6
Contacts:
Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian
Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services. Co WLL One Person Company (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given
time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no
liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically
engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report
has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any
representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed
opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price
and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly
from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.