q1 2015 investor presentation - microsoft · 1q 2015 45 176 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200...
TRANSCRIPT
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Q1 2015INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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Investments03
Company
Overview02
Refining
Industry01
Key
Financials04
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Refining Industry
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Brent Crude Oil Prices
108,0 115,3106,1
101,2
94,6
84,3
71,7
65,7
60,4
55,0
55,0
45,2
62,0 61,2
54,7
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2.1
.14
23
.1.1
4
13
.2.1
4
6.3
.14
27
.3.1
4
17
.4.1
4
8.5
.14
29
.5.1
4
19
.6.1
4
10
.7.1
4
31
.7.1
4
21
.8.1
4
11
.9.1
4
2.1
0.1
4
23
.10
.…
13
.11
.…
4.1
2.1
4
25
.12
.…
15
.1.1
5
5.2
.15
26
.2.1
5
19
.3.1
5
9.4
.15
30
.4.1
5
21
.5.1
5
11
.6.1
5
2.7
.15
4
$/Barrel
Reasons
• Falling Demand Growth
• Chinese slowdown
• Japanese Recession
• US weakness
• Lower Risk Perception
• ISIS
• Ukraine
• Iran
• No Problems
Materialised
• Excess Supply
• US Unconventional
• Libya
• OPEC Attitude
• OPEC & Saudi
statements
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Net Refinery Capacity Change
810 640160 195 52
-255 -103-576
334
150
340 13540
-100-195
-280
160
250
18184
180
-120
45
-161
530
526
0
0 302
-5-775
-546
520
400
120
390
-140
305
-352
270
300
510
60
368
63
-463
-54
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan NorthAmerica
Europe
Tho
usa
nd
Bar
rels
/Day
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : Tüpraş
5
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Refinery Value
Value Added•Ability to upgrade
•Correlated to complexity
Cost Base•Energy Efficiency•Raw Material costs•Scale•Automation
Local Market Dynamics•Growth trends•Supply / Demand balance
Market Position•Proportion of products sold domestically•Local Competition•Infrastructure
6
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Product Ratios (Barrel/Barrel)
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
Jan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Sep
Oct
No
v
No
v
Dec
Diesel2010 - 2014 Min Max 2012
2013 2014
2015
2015
Diesel & Gasoline ratios are still high
0,95
1,05
1,15
1,25
1,35Ja
n
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Sep
Oct
No
v
No
v
Dec
Gasoline
2010 - 2014 Min Max 2012
2013 2014
2015
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
Jan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Sep
Oct
No
v
No
v
Dec
Fuel Oil
2010 - 2014 Min Max 20122013 20142015
7
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Crude Differentials $/Barrel
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
-4,0-3,5-3,0-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009-2012 Min/Max 20122014 20112013
Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel
8
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0Differentials Trends
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC
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Med Complex Refining Margins
9
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gro
ss M
argi
n $
/bb
l
Max-Min 2004-2009 Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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Turkish Sector Outlook
Primary driver of demand is
growing vehicle parc
Auto sales continue to massively
outstrip removals
Very high gasoline tax has led to LPG
& Diesel substitution
Gasoline car sales improving35,8 41,2 50,6 58,3 64,5 76,1 85,643,6 44,3
52,259,4
65,473,4
80,4
79,4 85,5102,8
117,6130,0
149,5166,0
020406080
100120140160180
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Air Passengers - Mill ion
Domestic International
4,6 5,4 6,1 6,8 7,1 7,5 8,1 8,6 9,3 9,84,1
4,86,1
7,0 7,2 7,6 8,0 8,4 8,79,8
8,710,2
12,213,8 14,3 15,1
16,117,0 17,9 18,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Mill
ion
Ve
hic
les
Vehicle Parc
Passenger Car Other
Jet Fuel demand growing strongly Highly competitive liberalised market
Big infrastructure investments
Istanbul has become a hub for Turkish Airlines
Fuel Oil demand is declining Natural gas substitution
Switching is dependent on price
Long Term Asphalt Demand Growth Infrastructure investments
10
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15,6
16,7
17,4
14,5
15,0
15,5
16,0
16,5
17,0
17,5
18,0
2012 2013 2014
Diesel
Turkish Consumption (Million ton)
1,851,86
1,92
1,80
1,82
1,84
1,86
1,88
1,90
1,92
1,94
2012 2013 2014
Gasoline
3,2%7,0%
4,2%
0,5%
3,5 3,74,1
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2012 2013 2014
Jet Fuel
5,5%11,2%
0,69
0,53 0,53
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
2012 2013 2014
Fuel Oil
-1,1%-23,0%
11
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Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)
-3,1
1,6
-9,0
1,8
-3,0
2,1
-10,0
1,5
-3,0
2,5
-10,8
1,6
-3,1
2,4
-12,0
1,0
-3,1
2,5
-12,7
1,8
-14,0-13,0-12,0-11,0-10,0
-9,0-8,0-7,0-6,0-5,0-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,01,02,03,04,0
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million Ton
Export
Import
12
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Company Overview
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TÜPRAŞ Refining Assets
İzmir
İzmit
Ankara
İstanbul
Kırıkkale
Batman
Kirkuk
Baku
MARMARA
Kırıkkale
5.0 MT Capacity
NC: 6.32
Storage Capacity :
1.2 Mn m3
Batman
1.1 MT Capacity
NC: 1.83
Storage Capacity :
0.2 Mn m3
İzmit
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.78
Storage Capacity :
2.2 Mn M3
İzmir
11.0 MT Capacity
NC: 7.66
Storage Capacity :
1.9 Mn M3
Baz yağ üreticisi 400 bin ton
Black Sea
Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons – 100% of Turkey’s refining Capacity
Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 7.25
14
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Opet - Tüpraş Share 40.0 %
1.424 İstasyon
994 Opet Marka
430 Sunpet Marka
1.1 Million M3 Storage
•Major Terminals in Marmara, Agean, Black Sea & Mediteranean
International Trading
•London & Singapore
Jet Fuel Sales
•Turkish Airlines JV
Lubricants
•Fuchs JV
A Sector Leader
•2nd Biggest Player
•# 1 Brand
15
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16
DİTAŞ – Deniz Taşımacılığı – Tüpraş Hisse Payı %79.98
18,7 19,314,8
6,4 4,8
2,02,6
3,1
3,13,5
20,721,9
18,0
9,68,4
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
To
ns
Crude Products
Million $ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net Sales 139,4 146,4 159,0 103,7 101,7
Op. Profit 19,1 17,9 22,8 25,2 27,3
• Crude• 2001
• 164,86 K DWT
Cumhuriyet
• Products • 2008
• 10,98 K DWT
Sevgi
• Products • 2009
• 10,98 K DWT
Gönül
Products
2011
6 K DWT
Leyla
Products201255 K DWT
Suna
• Bitumen
• 2x20 K DWT
• Esra 2014
• Aylin 2015
Esra & Aylin
16
Financials
19 Tugboats
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Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)
7,4
2,9
1,8
2,5 2
,1
2,2
0,1
0,0
0,4
9,7
2,1
2,0
2,4
3,1
1,1
0,1
0,0
0,3
7,2
2,0
2,8 2
,3
3,8
1,5
0,3
1,0 0
,6
5,1
1,5
2,9 2
,4
6,1
1,5
0,3
0,7
0,6
5,2
8
0,6
1 1,8
7
2,3
7
5,6
7
1,6
3
0,1
8
0,0
8
2,5
7
I RA N RUSS İA S .A RA BİA TURKEY IRA Q KA Z A KSTA N ITA LY L İBYA OTHER
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
In 2014, Tüpraş purchased 18 different types of crude oil from 11
countries, with gravities ranging between 19-46 API
17
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Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl
3,4
5
3,0
5
5,8
2 4,4
2
1,7
2
2,0
3
4,5
6
5,4
6
1,3
4
2,7
6 1,4
1
2,9
2
0,3
0
3,8
4
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4th Quarter
Tupras Net Med Complex
1,5
7
1,7
2
1,3
7
3,8
7
1,9
6 0,9
0
2,4
1
4,6
93,7
0
3,4
4
3,5
0
0,4
2
2,9
7
2,8
3
0,4
4
5,9
8
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1st Quarter
Tupras Net Med Complex
4,5
7
2,2
9
4,5
1
5,2
9
3,3
1 2,4
5
3,2
1
5,5
4
1,9
5
2,8
9
1,1
7
4,2
1
1,6
7
1,9
5
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
12 Month
Tupras Net Med Complex
18
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Capacity Utilisation,%
87
,2 90
,7 93
,2
91
,1
86
,1
60
,4
69
,6 74
,4 78
,7
76
,8
71
,3
65
,1
80
,7
8,7
7,55,5
2,92,4
3,6
2,9
5,2
69,2
77,179,9 81,6
79,174,9
68,0
85,9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 / 1q 2015 / 1q
Crude Oil Other
19
+17,9%
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Quarterly Production Volumes (Million Tons)
20
3,31
4,194,32
4,06
5,51
6,256,47
6,07
4,554,63 5,41
5,51
5,71
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015
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1st Quarter Product Yields
White Product 71.27%
Production 4.5 mn ton
API:32.54
White Product 72.84%
Production 5.7 mn ton
API:33.14
Gasoline20,6%
Naphtha1,2%
Jet16,7%
Diesel26,8%
Other3,1%
LPG3,6%
Fuel Oil18,9%
Asphalt9,3%
Gasoline21,5%
Naphtha0,8%
Jet17,5%
Diesel27,5%
Other2,9%
LPG3,2%
Fuel Oil19,2%
Asphalt7,3%
Light Distil.21,7%
Mid. Distil.43,4%
Other 6,7%
Black Prod.28,2%
Light Distil.22,4%
Mid. Distil.44,9%
Other6,1%
Black Prod.26,5%
2014 2015
21
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Domestic Sales, million tons
1,81 1,78 1,82 1,83
0,39 0,43
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 1st Q2014
1st Q2015
Gasoline
2,763,29 3,55
3,83
0,76 0,86
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 1st Q2014
1st Q2015
Jet Fuel
7,878,57 8,11
6,70
1,48 1,73
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 1st Q2014
1st Q2015
Diesel
2,95 2,81 2,93
1,95
0,23 0,27
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2011 2012 2013 2014 1st Q2014
1st Q2015
Bitumen
22
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1Q Trading Activities
218
275
96
221
273
25
126
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Product Imports, Ton*000
1Q 2014
1Q 2015
45
176
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
HVGO ASR F.Oil
Intermediate Imports, Ton*000
1Q 2014
1Q 2015
Finished Products
High Sulfur Diesel imports were
stable but buy more ULSD
High / Low sulphur diesel
differentials were too low for
desulphurisation arbitrage profits.
Intermediates
Additional HVGO imported to
increase Capacity Utilisation in
conversion units
23
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Sales By Customer 2014
24
Distributors37%
THY Opet12%
Jet Fuel4%
LPG Dist.4%
Petkim1%
Other7%
Export24%
Asphalt9%
Military2%
OMV POAŞ23%
OPET19%
Shell14%
BP5%
TP4%
TOTAL3%
Other32%
Customer Groups Sales to Distributors
Total: 24.1 million ton Distributors : 10,3 million ton
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Corporate Governance
93,46
86,82
93,96
95,51
93,10
BOA RD
STA KEHOLD ERS
TRA NSPA RENCY
SHA REHOLD ERS
OV ERA LL
Corporate Governance Rating
One of the top rated companies in
Turkey
Committed to continuous
improvement in this area
Member of the Corporate
Governance Association
25
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Sustainability
2,5
1,7
2,2
1,51,1
1,6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Accident Frequency Rate
37,0%32,2%
36,3%40,4%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Recycled Water %
317348
186
126
2011 2012 2013 2014
GHG Emissions Reduction
120,9
107,4105,4 105,3
102,1 101,6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Energy Intensity Index
26
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Corporate Social Responsibility
Education•23rd April Events
•Umbrella Action Programme
•Fire Fly Programme Sponsorship
•Vocational School Infra-structure Investment
•Our Power is Our Energy
•Pilot Refinery
Culture• Purchase of Relief for Geyre Foundation
Health• Support for Turkish Family Planning Foundation
Environment•Aliağa - MenemenHighway Tree Planting
•Natural İzmit Project
•Safety Week
•Happy Waste
27
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Investments (Million USD)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
395
188 177
628
974
1201
959
28
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Investing in Efficiency
Operational Excellence
Programme
Hydrocarbon Margin
Integrity and Reliability
Health, Safety and
Environment
Energy Efficiency Projects Boiler and Furnace Modernization at
the İzmit Refinery
FCC Flue Gas Purification and Energy Recycling at İzmit
Installation of 25 MW Gas Turbine and Waste Heat Furnace in İzmir
Investment for the improvement of the crude oil energy efficiency atKırıkkale
29
18
146
79 81
42
32
62
105 106
3122
18
188
111
143
105 106
31
22
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Miy
on
USD
OMP EVP
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RUP Flow Chart
31
Atm
os
ph
eri
c D
ip
75
00
m3
/g
GasTo Gas Treatment
LVGO
HVGO
Vacuum Dip
Vacumm Dip
From Existing
Refineries
8200 m3 /g
Gas
LPG LPG Treating
Naphtha
LCGO
HCGO
Coke
1200 m3/ g
4000 m3/ g
8000 m3/ g
LPG
Light Naphtha
Heavy Naphtha
Kerosene
Diesel
HC Bottoms
Delayed Coker Unit
New Vacuum
DistillationUnit
To Gas
Treatment
To Gas
Treatment
New Hydro-cracker /
HydrotreaterUnitThe Project also includes an
integrated cogeneration
Plant of capacity 120 MWHydrogen Unit
160.000 Nm3/h
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Resid Upgrading Project Production – (Thousand Tons)
Raw Materials
Natural Gas 246
Vacuum Resid
1,214
Atm. Dip
3,036
Total Feed 4,496 Total Production 4,250
32
(kton)
Products(kton)
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Residuum Upgrade Financing
Structure / Conditions
Spanish ECACESCE
• $1.08 Billion
• Tenor 4+8; LIBOR+%3.05
Italian ECASACE
• $597 Million
• Tenor 4+8; LIBOR+%3.10
10 International BanksCommercial
• $359 Million
• Tenor 4+3; LIBOR+%2.85
Total
• $2,035.1 Million
Bank Consortium
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.
The Bank Of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ufj, Ltd.
BNP Paribas
Crédit Agricole Corporate And Investment Bank
Deutsche Bank AG- London Branch
HSBC Bank Plc
Banco Santander, S.A.
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited
Societe Generale
WestLB AG- London Branch
33
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Financial Summary
Assumptions
Crude Oil
Investment
Interest Rates
Returns
NPV
Equity &Project IRR
EBITDA
34
85
$/varil
2.70
Milyar $
~Libor
+
3%
1,5
Milyar $
% 29.7
% 17,9
550
Million $
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RUP- Mile Stones
35
Tüpraş Technical Department Feasibility Report
• May 2006
Snam Progetti Investment Alternatives Evaluation
• May 2007
Coker Chosen
• Dec 2007
Tecnicas Reunidas Contract Signed
• Dec 2009
Support from Spanish & Italian ECAs
• Aug 2011
Turn Key Agreement
• Aug 2011
Finance Agreement
• Oct 2011
Flare Lighting Ceremony
• Sept 2014
Opening Ceremony
• Dec 2014
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RUP Opening Ceremony – 15th December 2014
36
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Tax Incentive
• Previously – Large Scale
– Valued at 30% of project cost
– Realised after completion
– Tax rate of 10% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
• Currently – Strategic
– Valued at 50% of project cost
– Partly realised during construction
– Tax rate of 2% on project earnings until total incentive is reached
• Main Differences
– Total amount increased
– Some benefits are immediate
– Benefits will accrue much quicker
37
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Profitability Indicators , 12 M 2013-2014 & 1Q-2014-15
* In our EBITDA calculation FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be including in
operationg profit
39
2014 1Q 2015 1Q (%) 2013 2014 (%)
108,22 53,97 -50 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 108,7 98,99 -8,932,54 33,14 1,8 Processed Crude API 32,54 32,29 -0,871,27 72,84 1,6 White Product Yield, (%) 72,4 72,2 -0,2
0,44 5,98 1259 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 1,67 1,95 16,22,41 4,69 94,6 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 2,45 3,21 30,7
122,7 42,3 -65,6 Operating Profit, (mn. $) 21,7 199,3 820,2117,2 124,3 6,1 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 434 220 -49,3150,2 149,7 -0,4 EBITDA *(mn. $) 560 338 -39,7100,3 219,9 119,1 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 467 575 23,2
155,8 67,6 -56,6 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 148,0 317,3 114,4
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Income Statement
40
1Q 1 Q% Diff. Million USD
12 M
201312 M 2014 % Diff.
2014 2015
4.186,2 2.829,3 -32,4 Net Sales21.594,
718.164,9 -16
184,5 203,1 10,1 Gross Profit 774,5 577,5 -25
-71,3 -70,0 -1,8 Operating Expenses -367,8 -334,6 -9
9,6 -90,8-
1.048,7Income/Loss from other operations -385,0 -43,6 -89
122,7 42,3 -65,6 Operating Profit 21,7 199,3 820,2
10,5 -9,2 -187,4 Income/Loss from equity investment 43,0 -7,6 -118
133,2 33,1 -75,2 Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 64,7 191,6 196
22,0 180,7 720,3 Financial Income 528,7 228,2 -57
-50,5 -225,7 346,8 Finance Expenses -586,5 -335,8 -43
104,7 -11,9 -111,4 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 6,9 84,0 1.124
230,7 112,0 -51,4 Net Profit 629,4 667,2 6
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Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets
41
Million USD 31.03.2015 31.12.2014 Difference%
Difference
Current Assets 2.778 3.015 -237 -8
Cash & C. Equivalents 1.206 1.681 -475 -28
Receivables 201 87 115 132
Derivatives 105 28 77 277
Inventories 1.081 1.022 59 6
Pre-paid expenses 44 53 -9 -18
Other Current Assets 142 144 -2 -1
Long Term Assets 6.037 6.443 -407 -6
Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 245 315 -70 -22
Fixed Assets 4.296 4.600 -305 -7
Pre-paid expenses 68 112 -44 -39
Deferred Tax 1.136 1.131 5 0
Other Long Term Assets 272 284 -12 -4
Total Assets 8.815 9.458 -643 -7
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Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities
42
Million USD 31.03.2015 31.12.2014 Difference%
Difference
Short Term Liabilities 3.044 3.692 -648 -18
Financial Loans 377 335 42 13
Payables 1.740 2.464 -724 -29
Derivatives 3,22 0,03 3,19 10.873
Deferred Incomes 20 7
Provisions 33 47 -14 -29
Other ST Liabilities 871 838 32 4
Long Term Liabilities 3.358 3.087 271 9
Financial Loans 3.280 3.009 271 9
Payables & Provisions 68 76 -8 -11
Other LT Liabilities 10 2 8 356
Equity 2.392 2.655 -263 -10
Minority Interests 20 24 -4 -16
Total Liabilities 8.815 9.458 -643 -7
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Financial Highlights (mn $)
1.099
779
134262
113 95 79 150 150
256
328
153 153 78-27
271
468
373 361315 226
169
272
115 10689
-11
830
1.329,4
753,5 715560
338
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012-R 2013 2014 2015
331522
67194 161 72
231112
145
16575
75
171230
206309 435
17547
174 27147 91
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-653
-1.955
578 551
1.340
1.9941.696 1.869
1.598 1.663
2.452
-2.500-2.000-1.500-1.000
-5000
5001.0001.5002.0002.5003.000
0,220,19
0,30 0,32
0,24
0,10
0,40
0,330,30
0,26
0,18
0,000,050,100,150,200,250,300,350,400,45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20131Q
20141Q
20141H
20149M
2014 20151Q
EBITDA Net Income
Net Debt/(Cash) Return on Average Equity
43
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Balance Sheet Analysis
1,83 1,81
1,41
2,16
1,72 1,69
1,30
1,64 1,68
1,21
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Dec.12 Mar.13 Jun 13 Sep13 Dec 13 Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15
Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
1,191,34 1,45
1,33
0,930,71
0,52 0,51
0,090,20
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,0 2,1 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,30,4
0,8 0,81,0 0,5
0,90,3 0,3 0,3
0,4
2,42,9 3,1
3,43,1
3,73,2 3,2 3,3
3,7
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
Dec.12Mar.13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Mar.14 20141h
20149M
Dec 14 Mar.15
Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
2,88 2,97 2,943,46
3,22 3,10 3,283,04
2,46 2,46
1,74
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
Payables (Billion $)
44
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FX Risk Exposure (31 March 2015 )
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2,655
RUP Loans: 1,839
Eurobond: 700
Other credits: 116
ST Financials 235RUP 141
Payables
1,157
Forward
1,010
Stock
1,076
Receivables*
21
Cash
82
Million $
+127 million $
FX Risk with RUP : -1,858 million $
45
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is
believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable,
they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying
assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other
person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this
presentation.
46
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Future Expectations
Med Complex Margin
• We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.0-3.2 dollar per barrel band in 2015.
Tupras Net Margin
• For Tupras net refinery margins, we expect this to be in the region of 3.7-4.5 dollars per barrel
Capacity Utilisation
• Following the RUP fully commissioned in March, expected Capacity Utilisation in 2015 will reach around 95 %
• Production will therefore be approximately 27.5 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
Investment
• Including a total of 60 million US dollars final portion for the RUP, total investments for 2015 will be about 220 Million USD
47
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Competition Board Evaluation
The Period 11th October 2008 – 1st January 2009 (2 months 20 Days)
850 Million TL loss in the October-December period
Prices reduced more rapidly than Europe
• Gasoline 10 times
• Diesel 9 times
30% Currency Depreciation
• 26 Sept – 1.2316 TL/$, 20th Nov – 1.7038 TL/$
• 31st December – 1.5218 TL/$
Crude Oil prices fell from 144 dollars per barrel to 36
EMRA decided that no action was necessary
45
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Dividends (TL)
1,73
3,242,94
4,96
5,83
4,78
2,312,50
2,98
3,93 3,85
1,58
579626
746
985 964
396
0 0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tota
l Pay
ou
t (M
illio
n T
L)
Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout
2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive
49
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed
that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected
by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual
results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person
shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
48
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The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly updated
information of interest to investors
www.tupras.com.tr
Investor Relations and Reporting Director
Investor Relations Manager
Turgut Tuncay Önbilgin Jonathan Lamb
Investor Relations and Reporting DirectorsTel. : 262 316 3269Fax : 262 316 30 10-11Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No .25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeliwww.tupras.com.trE-mail: [email protected]