pva enercom togc investor presentation
TRANSCRIPT
2011 The Oil and Gas ConferenceInvestor PresentationAugust 15, 2011
NYSE: PVA
Eagle Ford Shale Drilling RigGonzales County, Texas
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Forward‐Looking Statements
Certain statements contained herein that are not descriptions of historical facts are “forward‐looking” statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the SecuritiesAct of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Because such statements include risks, uncertainties and contingencies,actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward‐looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and contingencies include, but arenot limited to, the following: the volatility of commodity prices for natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and oil; our ability to develop, explore for, acquire and replaceoil and gas reserves and sustain production; any impairments, write‐downs or write‐offs of our reserves or assets; the projected demand for and supply of natural gas,NGLs and oil; reductions in the borrowing base under our revolving credit facility; our ability to contract for drilling rigs, supplies and services at reasonable costs; ourability to obtain adequate pipeline transportation capacity for our oil and gas production at reasonable cost and to sell the production at, or at reasonable discounts to,market prices; the uncertainties inherent in projecting future rates of production for our wells and the extent to which actual production differs from estimated provedoil and gas reserves; drilling and operating risks; our ability to compete effectively against other independent and major oil and natural gas companies; uncertaintiesrelated to expected benefits from acquisitions of oil and natural gas properties; environmental liabilities that are not covered by an effective indemnity or insurance;the timing of receipt of necessary regulatory permits; the effect of commodity and financial derivative arrangements; our ability to maintain adequate financialliquidity and to access adequate levels of capital on reasonable terms; the occurrence of unusual weather or operating conditions, including force majeure events; ourability to retain or attract senior management and key technical employees; counterparty risk related to their ability to meet their future obligations; changes ingovernmental regulation or enforcement practices, especially with respect to environmental, health and safety matters; uncertainties relating to general domestic andinternational economic and political conditions; and the other risks, uncertainties and contingencies set forth in PVA’s Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the fiscal yearended December 31, 2010.
Additional information concerning these and other factors can be found in our press releases and public periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and ExchangeCommission (SEC), including our Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the year ended December 31, 2010. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward‐lookingstatements, which reflect management’s views only as of the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to revise or update any forward‐looking statements, or to makeany other forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Oil and Gas Reserves
Effective January 1, 2010, the SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose not only “proved” reserves, but also “probable” reserves and“possible” reserves. As noted above, statements of reserves are only estimates and may not correspond to the ultimate quantities of oil and gas recovered. Anyreserve estimates provided in this presentation that are not specifically designated as being estimates of proved reserves may include estimated reserves notnecessarily calculated in accordance with, or contemplated by, the SEC’s latest reserve reporting guidelines. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure inPVA’s Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010, available from PVA at Four Radnor Corporate Center, Suite 200, Radnor, PA 19087(Attn: Investor Relations). You can also obtain this report from the SEC by calling 1‐800‐SEC‐0330 or from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
Definitions
Proved reserves are those estimated quantities of oil and gas that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be economicallyproducible in future years from known oil and gas reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions and government regulation prior to the expiration of thecontracts providing the right to operate, unless renewal of such contracts is reasonably certain. Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain tobe recovered than proved reserves, but which are more likely than not to be recoverable (there should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities actuallyrecovered will equal or exceed the proved plus probable reserve estimates). Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recoverable thanprobable reserves (there should be at least a 10% probability that the total quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the proved plus probable plus possiblereserve estimates). “3P” reserves refer to the sum of proved, probable and possible reserves. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) is the sum of reserves remaining as ofa given date and cumulative production as of that date.
Forward‐Looking Statements, Oil and Gas Reserves and Definitions
Increase oil and liquids exposure• 40‐45% of 4Q11 production vs. 18% in 2010; cash flows expected to accelerate• Eagle Ford driven through 2013, with goal to add more Eagle Ford and other oily inventory
Retain long‐term optionality of core gas assets• E. Texas, Mississippi and Appalachia – largely HBP; wait on gas prices• Continue testing of Marcellus Shale position
Build liquidity and maintain solid financial position• Recent notes offering, tender for converts due in 2012 and accommodating new revolver• Pending sale of non‐core Mid‐Continent (mostly Arkoma) gas properties adds to liquidity• No maturities for 5 years and ample liquidity to fund CAPEX until free cash flow positive
Explore and develop:• Eagle Ford Shale
Excellent early results Continue to build acreage position without overpaying or sacrificing quality
• “Everything Else” $777MM of YE10 PDP PV‐10 value at recent strip pricing (i.e., it has value) Granite Wash non‐operated drilling – economic oil/NGL play Operated gas drilling deferred in favor of oil/NGL drilling 3
What We’re Focused on Currently
PVA Situation Overview
Emerging Oil and Liquids‐Rich Plays Plus “Option” in Significant Gas Plays
Core Operating Regions
Note: 2011 data based on latest guidance announced 8/3/11
2010 Proved Reserves: 942 Bcfe
2011E CAPEX: $360MM ‐ $380MM86% Oil & Liquids‐Rich Plays
2011E Production: 48.5‐50.5 Bcfe30‐32% Oil & Liquids; 40‐45% by 4Q11
Oil / Liquids
Wet Gas
Dry Gas
2011E Production
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Quality Assets are the Foundation for Growth in All Cycles
1 ‐ Pro forma to exclude proved reserves from Gulf Coast assets divested in January 2010 2 ‐ Pro forma to exclude production from Gulf Coast assets divested in January 2010 and Mid‐Continent assets awaiting sale in August 2011;
2011 data based on latest guidance announced 5/4/11
Track Record of Growth
• Solid growth over the past five years• Increasing proportion of growth from oil and NGLs
– Trend should accelerate as a majority of future drilling activity is for oil and NGLs
• Retention of “gas option,” allowing for flexibility as gas prices improve
1.2x
1.7x 1.8x
2.3x 2.2x
3.0x
35.9%
30.0%
35.6%
31.6%28.2%
37.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
3.5x
4.0x
4.5x
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Pro Forma2Q11
Conservative Leverage
Net Debt/EBITDAX Net Debt/Capitalization
• Over the past few years, we have prudently managed our balance sheet
• Management has taken steps to maintain strong liquidity over the past few years
• PVA remains well‐positioned to fund its capital spending plans through 2012
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Solid Financial Position
1 ‐ Pro forma for pending sale of non‐core Mid‐Continent gas assets; pro forma liquidity at 6/30/11 of $440MM is comprised of a pro forma and undrawn borrowing base of $380MM and approximately $60MM of cash; future ability to borrow under the revolver will be subject to a maximum leverage ratio of 4.5x (through 6/30/13) and 4.0x (from 9/30/13through 6/30/16) net debt‐to‐EBITDAX, as well as future borrowing base amounts
Financial Flexibility to Execute Growth Plan
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‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
2010 High‐Return Reserve Replacement1
Ex‐Leasehold PD F&D ($/Mcfe, left axis) Return on Drilling Dollars (right axis)
Median: $2.91/ Mcfe
Median: 13.7%
PVA
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Lower Drill‐Bit F&D and Higher Rates of Return on Drilling Relative to Peers in 2010
1 ‐ Source: JPMorgan PD F&D Survey (March 2011); peers: APA, APC, AREX, ATPG, BEXP, BRY, CHK, CLR, COG, CRZO, CXO, DNR, DPTR, DVN,EOG, EP, EQT, GDP, HK, MMR, NBL, NFX, PETD, PQ, PXD, PXP, QEP, RRC, SD, SFY, SM, SWN, UPL, VQ, WLL, WMB, XEC
Track Record of Value Creation
• Historical statistics place PVA among the “best in class” ‐ 2010 was no exception– Ranked 3rd in drill‐bit F&D and 6th in return on drilling dollars out of 38 top E&P firms1
– 2010 results driven by the Granite Wash; 2011 and 2012 results will be driven by the Eagle Ford Shale
Play
Gross Undrilled Locations
Average Working Interest
Gross EUR (Bcfe/Well)1
Net Risked Reserve Potential (Bcfe)2
Henry HubBreakevenGas Price
for 10% IRR3
WTIBreakevenOil Price
for 10% IRR4
Eagle Ford Shale 130 83% 371‐5581 ‐‐‐5 N/A $40‐59
Granite Wash 81 28% 6871 174 $2.20 $63
Horizontal Cotton Valley 79 79% 5.0 267 $2.54 $50
Haynesville Shale 183 74% 6.7 505 $3.25 N/A
Selma Chalk 183 97% 1.7 279 $3.84 N/A
Marcellus Shale >200 90% 4.0 – 6.0 ‐‐‐5 $3.48 N/A
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PVA is Well‐Positioned in a Number of Leading Oil & Gas Plays
1 – Eagle Ford and Granite Wash EURs in MBOE2 – 3P reserves as of 12/31/103 – Pretax well economics assuming $85.00 oil price per barrel WTI4 – Pretax well economics assuming $4.50 gas price per MMBtu Henry Hub5 – No Eagle Ford Shale or Marcellus Shale proved or unproved reserves were included in the reserve report at year‐end 2010
Quality Inventory of Drilling Locations
• All core plays are economic at 2012‐2013 future strip pricing• Focused on Eagle Ford Shale and non‐op. Granite Wash in 2011 to minimize outspend
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Plenty to Do Despite Uncertain / Weak Commodity Price Environment
Oil & Gas Price Sensitivities
Note – Blue boxes represent 2012‐2013 NYMEX futures strip pricing as of close on 8/11/11
$4.50 per MMBtuFlat HH Gas Price
$85 per BarrelFlat WTI Oil Price
• All core plays are economic at 2012‐2013 futures strip pricing• Our drilling is rate‐of‐return driven, opting to preserve and not destroy capital for the
sake of showing production growth, which is often sub‐economic• We’re well above peers in return on drilling dollars – these charts show how we do that
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2007 ‐ 2011 Capital Spending Increasingly Allocated to Oil & NGLs
Spending Less, But More in Oil & Liquids
Note: 2011 data based on latest guidance announced 8/3/11; see Appendix
• In 2010 we focused CAPEX on drilling in the Granite Wash• For 2011 and beyond, we’ll be focused on drilling and expanding our position in the
Eagle Ford Shale and, potentially, other oily or liquids‐rich play types
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2011 Capital Expenditures
Note: 2011 data based on latest guidance announced 8/3/11; see Appendix
2011E Forecast Uses $4.25/MMBtu and $90.00/Barrel
$360 ‐ $380MM of 2011 Capital Spending, 86% Targeting Oil & Liquids‐Rich Plays
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Excellent Early Results; Looking to Expand Acreage Position
Eagle Ford Shale: Volatile Oil
Eagle Ford Shale• Positioning
– ~14,000 net acres in Gonzales Co., TX– Operator with 83% WI and 63% NRI– 12 wells currently producing approximately
5,000 BOEPD (net), including NGLs– Up to 130 remaining gross drilling locations
• Actively seeking to expand position– Fracturing, gathering and processing in place
• Reserve Characteristics / Geology– Volatile oil window: 80% oil, 10% NGLs, 10% gas– First 12 wells IP’d at 582‐1,921 BOE/d
– 1,105 BOE/d average IP rate– Actual results support a 558 MBOE type curve
• 2011 Activity– 3 rigs drilling; up to 34 (27.9 net) wells– Up to $226MM of CAPEX (60% of total)– 14% of 2011E production (~30% of 4Q11E)
Note: Based on 8/3/11 operational update
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Located in the “Volatile Oil” Window Near Strong, Early Industry Results
Note ‐ Industry results based on peers’ investor presentations and reported IP wellhead rates (pre‐processing); production “windows” are PVA’s approximation
Eagle Ford Shale: Play Activity Map
GonzalesCounty
KarnesCounty Dewitt
County
LavacaCounty
FayetteCounty
WilsonCounty
EOGMilton Unit (668‐914 BOEPD)Harper Unit (695‐1,070 BOEPD)Dulling (1,255‐1,353 BOEPD)
EOG / Riley Expl.Edwards Unit (962 BOEPD)Maali 1H (968 BOEPD)
• PVA’s Gonzales County Eagle Ford Acreage and Potential is Well‐Positioned Based on Overall Excellent Industry Results inArea
Peers WithAcreageNear PVAEOGMROMHRFSTHunt
MHRGonzo Hunter 1H
(605 BOEPD)
PeersPVA
PVA / MHR / EOGPVA (582‐1,921 BOEPD)MHR (900‐1,335 BOEPD)
EOG Hill Unit 2H (1,347 BOEPD)
EOGBrothers Unit (1,798‐2,508 BOEPD)
EOGMarshall Unit (703‐1,658 BOEPD)
Cusack Clampit (1,044‐2,107 BOEPD)Hansen‐Kullin 3H (1,791 BOEPD)
Ullman 2H (925 BOEPD)HFS / Sweet (1,403‐1,578 BOEPD)
PVA Acreage~14,000 Net Acres
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Cumulative Gross Production1
Peak Gross DailyProduction Rates1
30‐Day Average Gross DailyProduction Rates1
Well NameLateral Length
Frac Stages
Equivalent Production
Days On Line
OilRate
Equivalent Rate
OilRate
EquivalentRate
feet BOE BOPD BOEPD BOPD BOEPDOn‐Line WellsGardner #1H 4,792 16 96,154 183 1,084 1,247 732 881 Hawn Holt #1H 4,053 15 48,785 87 759 837 606 668 Hawn Holt #2H 4,476 17 35,815 56 869 986 668 728Hawn Holt #4H 4,106 14 27,585 86 534 582 357 394 Hawn Holt #6H 4,166 17 21,986 57 670 711 342 370Hawn Holt #9H 4,453 18 50,855 52 1,652 1,877 1,044 1,153Hawn Holt #10H 3,913 16 25,181 30 1,080 1,188 771 839Hawn Holt #3H 3,800 15 11,864 20 607 651 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐Hawn Holt #5H 3,950 16 7,371 21 474 528 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐Munson Ranch #1H 4,163 17 18,571 11 1,755 1,921 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐Munson Ranch #3H 3,953 16 14,964 10 1,448 1,538 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐Hawn Holt #11H 3,931 17 8,520 7 1,120 1,190 ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐
Averages 4,146 16 1,004 1,105 646 719Maximums 4,792 18 1,755 1,921 1,044 1,153Minimums 3,800 14 474 528 342 370
Note: Based on 8/3/11 operational update
• Initial six wells had an average peak gross production rate of 1,040 BOEPD• Next six wells had an average peak gross production rate of 1,169 BOEPD
– First seven wells had a 30‐day average gross production rate of 719 BOEPD
• Average of the 12 well results provide basis for 558 MBOE type curve
Eagle Ford Shale: Excellent Early ResultsPVA Has Reported Some of the Best Industry Results in the Volatile Oil Window
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High‐Margin, Liquid‐Rich Reserves and Production
Mid‐Continent: Liquids‐Rich Play Types
Anadarko Basin• Positioning
– CHK development drilling JV• ~10,000 net acres in Washita Co.• Operate about 1/3rd; ~35% WI• ~80 drilling locations in JV
– ~40,000 net acres in other exploratory plays• Testing to resume in 2012 or 2013
• Reserve Characteristics / Geology– Granite Wash: 48% liquids; attractive IRRs– Other play types: Tonkawa, Cleveland, St.
Louis, Springer, Viola, other– Historical EURs > 5.0 Bcfe; assuming 4.0 Bcfe
for remaining wells• 2011 Activity
– Up to 20 (8.7 net) Granite Wash wells– Non‐operated drilling through YE11– Up to $88MM of CAPEX (23% of total)
Note: Based on 8/3/11 operational update
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Exploration Efforts Under Way in North Central Pennsylvania
Marcellus Shale
Marcellus Shale• Positioning
– ~55,000 net acres primarily in Pennsylvania• ~35,000 net acres in Potter / Tioga Cos.• ~20,000 net acres in SW PA
– Operator with ~87% WI and 76% NRI– Over 200 gross drilling locations
• Reserve Characteristics / Geology– Moderate depth and thickness– Dry gas window– Attempting to establish minimum 4.0 Bcfe EUR wells
in Potter and Tioga Counties
• 2011 Activity– Drilled and tested three wells in Potter County
• Waiting on pipeline; online in September– Focus on testing of eastern acreage in 2H11 and into
2012; most of 2011’s CAPEX incurred in 1H11– Will adjust lateral direction and completion– Continuing to consider alternatives
Note: Based on 8/3/11 operational update
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Low‐Cost, High‐Potential, Largely HBP Natural Gas
• ETX ‐ Horizontal Cotton Valley– 5.0 Bcfe PUDs; 35% liquids– $2.54 PV10 breakeven gas price– 79 gross drilling locations– 267 Bcfe of 3P reserves at YE10
• ETX ‐ Haynesville Shale– 6.7 Bcfe PUDs; dry gas– $3.25 PV10 breakeven gas price– 183 gross drilling locations– 505 Bcfe of 3P reserves at YE10
• Mississippi ‐ Selma Chalk– 1.7 Bcfe PUDs; dry gas– $3.84 PV10 breakeven gas price– 183 gross drilling locations– 279 Bcfe of 3P reserves at YE10
East Texas & Mississippi: Gas Optionality
Cotton Valley / Haynesville Shale
Selma Chalk
Summary of Gas Option445 gross locations
1.1 Tcfe of 3P reserves
Wet Gas
Dry Gas
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Value PropositionPVA Appears to be Significantly Undervalued on a Reasonable “Sum‐of‐the‐Parts” Basis
1 ‐ SEC pricing of $4.38 per MMBtu (natural gas) and $79.43 per barrel (crude oil)2 ‐ Natural gas price varies between $5 and $6 per MMBtu, while assuming an $85 per barrel WTI price and $42 per barrel NGL price3 ‐ Third‐party 3P reserve report as of 12/31/10; pretax PV‐10% values4 ‐ Approximately 14,000 net Eagle Ford acres, using midpoint of estimated value range between $10K and $20K per net acre.5 ‐ Approximately 55,000 net Marcellus acres, using midpoint of estimated value range between $500 and $4K per net acre.
Apparent “Disconnect” Exists Between PVA Story and Wall Street Research
PVA: Wall Street Myths vs. Realities
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• “There’s the Eagle Ford and Everything Else”• “Everything Else” is worth at least $777MM1, or $17.00 per share, providing a solid underpinning given PVA’s recent stock
price of $10.01, equity market cap. of $457MM and 6/30/11 net debt of $574MM – covers net debt, provides >$4 / share• Upside includes undeveloped Eagle Ford, liquids‐rich Granite Wash / Cotton Valley, Haynesville Shale, Selma Chalk and
Marcellus Shale potential
• “Production Guidance for 2011 Was Cut, While CAPEX Guidance Went Up”• Gas production guidance in 2H11 was indeed down, but oil and liquids production (i.e., revenue, EBITDAX and cash flow)
guidance was up2
• CAPEX guidance in 2H11 actually went down, not up, to $75‐85MM per quarter vs. $105MM per quarter in 1H112
• “PVA Has Unimpressive Production Growth, Given its Outspend of Cash Flow” • Transition from natural gas to oil has slowed production growth in 1H11, but solid growth is expected to resume in 2H11• Growing oil/NGL production & cash flows, while declining gas production, is an economic tradeoff• Outspend will decrease and likely end in late 2012 / early 2013 with oil production growth and free cash flow thereafter
• “PVA Has Financial and/or Liquidity Problems”• PVA has enough liquidity today to fund itself to the point at which it becomes free cash flow positive, while having no debt
maturities for five years • Recent notes offering (7.25% offer yield), tender for converts due in 2012, new credit facility and leverage covenant (≤4.0x
to 4.5x future EBITDAX), together with the pending Arkoma asset sale, equals progress made on the liquidity front• PVA’s borrowing base and cash flows are expected to increase as oily proved developed reserves are booked
1 – Pretax PV‐10 of YE10 proved developed producing reserves (i.e., no Eagle Ford Shale, no Marcellus Shale, no upside value) at futures strip pricing at close on 8/11/112 – Please see Appendix for latest guidance on FY11 and 2H11 as announced on 8/3/11
• Diversified and valuable portfolio of high‐quality assets
• Track record of low‐cost, high‐return operations
• Allocating capital to build oil and liquids production
• Plenty of economic drilling locations, most of which are HBP
• Drilling and acquisitions focused on high return play types
• Retained option on natural gas assets
• Financial condition and liquidity is solid
• Significant production and cash flow growth expected
• Compelling value proposition
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Why PVA?A Track Record of Growth and Value Generation
Appendix
Haynesville Shale Drilling RigHarrison County, Texas
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Natural Gas Hedges
1 – As of 8/3/11; crude oil hedges include 360 BOPD @ $80 x $103 for 2H11 and 500 BOPD @ $100 x $120 for CY12
Protecting our Capital Budget and Well Economics
• 56% of our natural gas price exposure is hedged for the remainder of 2011
2011 Guidance TableAs of August 3, 2011
Dollars in millions, except per unit data; based on latest guidance announced 8/3/1123
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Non‐GAAP Reconciliations
Penn Virginia Corporation4 Radnor Corporate Center, Suite 200Radnor, PA 19087610‐687‐8900www.pennvirginia.com
Granite Wash Drilling RigsWashita County, Oklahoma