public opinion on the supreme court, 1937-2012
DESCRIPTION
As the Supreme Court prepares to hand down its end-of-term rulings, AEI’s Public Opinion team has examined current and historical views of the court and individual justices , comparing questions asked by more 30 major pollsters. Among the major findings of this AEI Public Opinion Study:*Trust in the Supreme Court is down slightly for the major organizations with long trends. Harris found a seven-point drop in high trust between 1966 and 2011. Gallup shows a six-point drop between 1973 and 2011, and the National Opinion Research Center reports a two-point drop between 1973 and 2010. * In a late May/early June CBS News/New York Times poll, 44 percent approved of the way the court is handling its job. In 2000, the first time Gallup asked the identical question about the court’s job performance, 62 percent approved. The Pew Research Center’s measure of favorability for 2012 is the lowest in 25 years. *People view the judicial branch more positively than the executive of legislative branches. *Strong pluralities usually tell pollsters that the court’s ideological balance is “about right.” A Fox News question from 2012, for example, found that 45 percent thought the court was “about right” in its decisions, while 26 percent said it was “too liberal” and 21 percent “too conservative.” *Americans believe that the justices bring their personal views to their decisions. In 1946, 43 percent said the court decided many questions based on politics. In a late May/early June 2012 CBS News/New York Times poll, 76 percent said the court decides cases based on personal and political views, not legal analysis. When asked specifically about the health care case, around 50 percent believe the justices will let their partisan or ideological views enter into their decisions. * Most Americans are not familiar with individual justices. In a 2010 Pew poll, only 28 percent could identify John Roberts as the chief justice. During Roberts’s confirmation hearing in September 2005, 53 percent told Pew he was “generally considered” a conservative, and 25 percent didn’t know. Two years later, 37 percent said he was generally considered a conservative and 48 percent didn’t know. It is unlikely that the health care ruling will shape Roberts’s legacy in the public consciousness.TRANSCRIPT
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S
PUBLIC OPINION ON THE SUPREME COURT
(Updated June 2012)
Compiled by Karlyn H. Bowman, Senior Fellow and Andrew Rugg, Research Assistant
AEI Public Opinion Studies
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Table of Contents TRENDS IN CONFIDENCE IN THE COURT .................................................................................. 4
APPROVAL ........................................................................................................................................... 9
FAVORABILITY ................................................................................................................................. 12
THE COURT’S POWER AND BALANCE TODAY ......................................................................... 13
THE IDEOLOGY OF THE NEXT JUSTICE, NEW COURT.......................................................... 17
What Americans Wanted of Obama’s Nominees ......................................................................... 17
What Americans Wanted of George W. Bush’s Nominees ......................................................... 18
THE PRESIDENT’S DECISION OR THE SENATE’S?................................................................. 21
THE NEXT NOMINEE: LEGAL BACKGROUND AND OTHER ISSUES ................................... 24
Views and Qualifications of the Nominee ................................................................................... 24
Roberts’s views on Abortion ........................................................................................................ 27
Bush’s Nominees and Abortion ................................................................................................... 28
ELENA KAGAN .................................................................................................................................. 29
Kagan and the Issue of Abortion .................................................................................................. 32
Kagan’s Ideological Leanings ...................................................................................................... 32
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ........................................................................................................................ 33
Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 35
JOHN ROBERTS ................................................................................................................................ 37
Should Roberts Be Confirmed ..................................................................................................... 38
Will Roberts Be Confirmed .......................................................................................................... 39
Impressions of Roberts ................................................................................................................. 39
Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 40
Roberts and The Issue of Abortion ............................................................................................... 41
Past Cases ..................................................................................................................................... 42
Miscellany .................................................................................................................................... 43
Continued Performance ................................................................................................................ 44
HARRIET MIERS ............................................................................................................................... 45
Impressions of Miers .................................................................................................................... 46
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Miers and the Issue of Abortion ................................................................................................... 47
Will Miers Be Confirmed ............................................................................................................. 47
Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 48
Miers’s Qualifications .................................................................................................................. 48
Miers’s Withdrawal ...................................................................................................................... 49
SAMUEL ALITO ................................................................................................................................. 50
Impressions of Alito ..................................................................................................................... 52
Ideological Leanings .................................................................................................................... 53
Alito’s Qualifications ................................................................................................................... 53
Alito and Gender .......................................................................................................................... 54
Alito and the Issue of Abortion .................................................................................................... 54
ORIGINAL INTENT ........................................................................................................................... 55
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT INDIVIDUAL JUSTICES ................................................................... 57
William Rehnquist ............................................................................................................................ 57
Clarence Thomas .............................................................................................................................. 59
Antonin Scalia .................................................................................................................................. 60
David Souter ..................................................................................................................................... 60
John Roberts ................................................................................................................................. 61
Miscellany ........................................................................................................................................ 61
GENDER, RACE, AND ETHNICITY AND COURT NOMINEES ................................................ 62
LEGAL ANALYSIS OR PERSONAL VIEWS: WHAT RULES/GUIDES THE JUSTICES.......... 67
2010 Health Care Law ...................................................................................................................... 69
2000 Florida Recount ....................................................................................................................... 71
TRUST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT ..................... 73
Life Tenure, Mandatory Retirement ............................................................................................. 74
Television Coverage ..................................................................................................................... 75
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• Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little? First, the U.S. Supreme Court?
Great deal/ Very little/ quite a lot Some none (Vol.) 1973 Gallup 44% 28% 17% 1975 Gallup 49 28 17 1977 Gallup 46 29 18 1978 Gallup 39 32 21 1979 Gallup 45 31 20
The Supreme Court: Pollsters have been polling on issues related to the Supreme Court for more than 70 years. In 1937, both Gallup and Roper asked questions about President Franklin Roosevelt’s intentions to enlarge the court. In 1939, Gallup asked a single question about the appointment of Felix Frankfurter to the Court. Louis Harris asked a dozen questions about the elevation of Abe Fortas to the Chief Justice position in 1968 and about the nominations of Clement Haynsworth and G. Harold Carswell in 1971. The mid-1980s, with more pollsters in the field, appears to represent a turning point in the pollsters’ activity. Around 200 questions were asked in 1986 and 1987 about the nominations of Robert Bork and Douglas Ginsburg. Not only were there more questions than in the past, but many of them also had a provocative tone not present in earlier questions. The business didn’t always distinguish itself. Take this question asked by a major pollster about Douglas Ginsburg’s wife: “As you may know, (Supreme Court nominee Douglas) Ginsburg's wife, a medical doctor, performed a few legal abortions early in her career. Do you think the fact that Ginsburg’s wife performed a few legal abortions is enough of a reason by itself to keep him off the Supreme Court or not?” Only a few years later, in 1991, more than 400 questions were asked about Clarence Thomas’s nomination. Many had the flavor of push polls. This AEI Public Opinion Study tries to look broadly at confidence in the court, views of the court today, knowledge of current Justices, and at the kind of nominee people say they would like to see. Separate sections look at views of Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor, John Roberts, Jr., Harriet Miers, and Samuel Alito. It also reviews areas where public opinion is not well formed. Questions about original intent, for example, seem to pull people in one direction or another depending on how they are worded. This document includes some questions on abortion. Another AEI Public Opinion Study examines that issue in more detail: http://www.aei.org/publicopinion15.
TRENDS IN CONFIDENCE IN THE COURT: Three survey organizations have long trends on confidence in the Supreme Court. In Gallup’s 2011 question, high confidence in the court was roughly what it was in 2009 and 2010. Around two in ten have very little or no confidence in the court. Harris’s question asks about those in charge of running the Supreme Court. It showed a dip in evaluations between 2010 and 2011. Around 20 percent in Harris’s question have hardly any confidence in the past couple of years.
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1980 Gallup 47 30 17 1981 Gallup 47 31 14 1983 Gallup 42 34 17 1985 Gallup 56 30 10 1986 Gallup 54 33 10 1987 Gallup 52 36 8 1988 Gallup 56 30 12 1989 Gallup 46 54 -- 1990 Gallup 47 31 18 1991 Gallup 39 39 17 1993 Gallup 43 37 17 1994 Gallup 42 38 17 1995 Gallup 44 39 15 1996 Gallup 45 39 15 1997 Gallup 50 32 16 1998 Gallup 50 34 13 1999 Gallup 49 35 13 2000 (Jun.) Gallup 47 35 14 2000 (Dec.15-17)* Gallup 49 31 19 2001 (Jun.) Gallup 50 31 13 2002 Gallup 50 35 13 2003 Gallup 47 38 13 2004 Gallup 46 37 16 2005+ Gallup 41 38 19 2006 Gallup 40 41 16 2007 Gallup 34 41 23 2008 Gallup 32 44 17 2009 Gallup 39 41 18 2010 Gallup 36 43 20 2011 Gallup 37 41 20
NOTE: *The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Bush vs. Gore was announced on December 12, 2000. +In 2011, the U.S. Supreme Court ranked sixth out of sixteen institutions in terms of “a great deal/quite a lot” of confidence. The U.S. Supreme Court ranked below the military (78 percent), small business (64 percent), the police (56 percent), the church or organized religion (48 percent), and the medical system (39 percent). It ranked ahead of the presidency (35 percent) public schools (34 percent), the criminal justice system (28 percent), newspapers (28 percent), television news (27 percent), banks (23 percent), organized labor (21 percent), health maintenance organizations (19 percent), big business (19 percent), and Congress (12 percent).
(Demographic breakdowns) -------Subgroups answering great deal/quite a lot------- Republicans Democrats Independents 1973 (May) Gallup 48% 44% 44% 1975 (May) Gallup 53 52 45 1977 (Jan.) Gallup 43 48 46 1979 (Apr.) Gallup 47 46 49 1981 (Nov.) Gallup 51 46 42 1984 (Oct.) Gallup 57 44 55 1985 (May) Gallup 58 55 54 1986 (Oct.) Gallup 57 52 56 1987 (Jul.) Gallup 58 49 52 1989 (Sep.) Gallup 54 41 44 1991 (Feb.) Gallup 50 44 53 1991 (Oct.) Gallup 46 36 37 1993 (Mar.) Gallup 44 47 41 1994 (Mar.) Gallup 45 45 38
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1996 (May) Gallup 43 46 46 1997 (Jul.) Gallup 51 52 48 1998 (Jun.) Gallup 52 48 51 1999 (Jun.) Gallup 47 58 45 2000 (Jun.) Gallup 48 44 48 2001 (Jun.) Gallup 68 46 42 2002 (Jun.) Gallup 53 46 50 2003 (Jun.) Gallup 56 42 44 2004 (Mar.) Gallup 53 47 41 2005 (May) Gallup 47 42 36 2006 (Jun.) Gallup 52 31 37 2007 (Jun.) Gallup 45 29 30 2008 (Jun.) Gallup 44 25 28 2009 (Jun.) Gallup 35 44 36 2010 (Jul.) Gallup 26 48 35 2011 (Jun.) Gallup 38 44 32
• As far as people in charge of running the U.S. Supreme Court are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?
Great Deal Only Some Hardly Any 1966 Harris Interactive 31% 29% 12% 1967 Harris Interactive 40 29 21 1971 Harris Interactive 23 41 27 1972 Harris Interactive 29 42 21 1973 Harris Interactive 33 40 20 1974 Harris Interactive 35 44 17 1975 Harris Interactive 28 42 21 1976 Harris Interactive 32 43 21 1977 Harris Interactive 29 48 18 1978 Harris Interactive 27 47 19 1979 Harris Interactive 29 52 16 1980 Harris Interactive 27 53 18 1981 Harris Interactive 29 54 15 1982 Harris Interactive 26 54 17 1983 Harris Interactive 32 55 12 1984 Harris Interactive 38 51 10 1985 Harris Interactive 30 55 14 1986 Harris Interactive 35 53 10 1987 Harris Interactive 33 53 11 1988 Harris Interactive 33 56 10 1989 Harris Interactive 30 55 14 1990 Harris Interactive 35 51 13 1991 Harris Interactive 24 54 20 1992 Harris Interactive 30 54 15 1993 Harris Interactive 28 58 14 1994 Harris Interactive 34 51 14 1995 Harris Interactive 34 51 14 1996 Harris Interactive 33 52 15 1997 Harris Interactive 31 53 14 1998 Harris Interactive 40 47 12 1999 Harris Interactive 42 45 11 2000 (Jan.) Harris Interactive 34 51 13 2001 Harris Interactive 35 45 16 2002 Harris Interactive 41 45 11 2002 Harris Interactive 34 48 13 2004 Harris Interactive 29 49 18
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2004 ABC/Wash Post 29 57 13 2005* Harris Interactive 29 57 13 2006 Harris Interactive 33 50 16 2007 Harris Interactive 27 54 17 2008 Harris Interactive 25 55 16 2009 Harris Interactive 30 50 19 2010 Harris Interactive 31 46 21 2011 Harris Interactive 24 53 19
NOTE: *In 2011, the U.S. Supreme Court ranked fifth out of sixteen institutions in terms of “a great deal” of confidence. Those in charge of running the U.S. Supreme Court ranked below the military (57 percent), those in charge of running small businesses (50 percent), medicine (33 percent), and major educational institutions such as colleges and universities (30 percent). It ranked ahead of organized religion (24 percent), public schools (20 percent). The White House (19 percent), the court and justice system (19 percent), television news (16 percent), organized labor (15 percent), major companies (13 percent), the press (11 percent), law firms (11 percent), Wall Street (7 percent), and Congress (6 percent).
• I am going to name some institutions in this country. As far as the people running these institutions are concerned, would you
say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them...U.S. Supreme Court? Great deal Only some Hardly any 1973 NORC 32% 52% 16% 1974 NORC 34 50 16 1975 NORC 32 49 19 1976 NORC 36 48 16 1977 NORC 37 52 11 1978 NORC 31 55 15 1980 NORC 26 53 21 1982 NORC 31 56 13 1983 NORC 28 58 14 1984 NORC 36 51 12 1986 NORC 31 54 14 1987 NORC 39 50 11 1988 NORC 37 53 11 1989 NORC 36 53 10 1990 NORC 36 51 13 1991 NORC 39 48 13 1993 NORC 31 55 14 1994 NORC 32 52 16 1996 NORC 30 52 18 1998 NORC 32 53 15 2000 NORC 34 52 13 2002 NORC 37 51 11 2004 NORC 32 53 15 2006 NORC 34 51 15 2008 NORC 32 54 14 2010 NORC 31 52 17 (Demographic breakdowns) --------Republicans-------- ---------Democrats--------- -------Independents------ Great Only Hardly Great Only Hardly Great Only Hardly deal some any deal some any deal some any 1973 NORC 35% 50% 15% 32% 52% 16% 30% 53% 18% 1974 NORC 38 44 17 35 53 13 27 52 20 1975 NORC 36 45 20 31 50 19 30 43 27 1976 NORC 41 48 12 37 45 18 35 44 21 1977 NORC 36 51 12 40 49 11 31 56 13
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1978 NORC 34 53 12 30 57 13 23 56 22 1980 NORC 24 55 22 30 52 18 24 52 24 1982 NORC 36 52 13 30 58 12 25 56 19 1983 NORC 30 54 16 28 56 16 18 67 15 1984 NORC 42 48 10 35 53 12 23 64 13 1986 NORC 34 52 14 30 56 14 27 58 15 1987 NORC 42 51 7 34 55 12 25 58 17 1988 NORC 43 50 7 34 54 12 34 52 14 1989 NORC 41 54 6 33 53 14 31 54 15 1990 NORC 42 49 9 33 51 16 27 53 20 1991 NORC 46 43 11 35 52 13 34 48 18 1993 NORC 34 55 11 28 55 17 31 50 20 1994 NORC 33 51 16 34 50 16 23 55 21 1996 NORC 33 52 15 31 52 17 22 53 25 1998 NORC 34 51 15 33 54 13 30 50 21 2000 NORC 32 54 14 37 52 11 31 52 18 2002 NORC 43 49 8 36 50 14 28 59 13 2004 NORC 36 53 11 27 57 16 37 41 22 2006 NORC 44 47 9 28 53 19 29 53 19 2008 NORC 34 56 10 30 55 15 29 54 18 2010 NORC 27 55 18 33 52 15 31 47 21
• I’m going to read you the names of some institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself have in each one: a great deal, quite a lot, some, very little, or none at all? The U.S. Supreme Court.
Great deal Quite a lot Some Very little None at all Dec. 7-10, 2000^ NBC/WSJ 27% 25% 34% 8% 5% Jul. 2007 NBC/WSJ 15 21 39 17 7 Jan. 2009 NBC/WSJ 16 23 36 13 8 May 2012* NBC/WSJ 14 19 45 14 6
NOTE:* Asked of one half of the sample. ^The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Bush vs. Gore was announced on December 12, 2000.
• Would you say you are extremely confident, very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not confident at all in
the people who are running the U.S. Supreme Court. Extremely Very Somewhat Not too Not at all confident confident confident confident confident Aug. 2010 AP/Roper 3% 13% 58% 14% 11% Aug. 2011 AP/Roper 7 17 54 10 10
• How much confidence do you yourself have in the United States Supreme Court - a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very
little? Great deal Quite a lot Some Very Little 1981 CBS/NYT 21% 26% 35% 14% 2000 (Nov. 27-28)* CBS/NYT 29 28 29 10 2000 (Dec.14-16)* CBS/NYT 24 22 33 18 2001 CBS/NYT 16 22 41 16 2004 CBS/NYT 20 21 39 17 2005 CBS/NYT 14 22 40 20 2006 CBS/NYT 22 27 37 13 NOTE: *The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Bush vs. Gore was announced on December 12, 2000.
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• I’m going to read you the names of some institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself have in each one: a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little...The U.S. Supreme Court?
Great deal Quite a lot Some Very little 1995 Wash Post/Kaiser/Harvard 13% 26% 41% 16% 2000 (Jun.) NPR/Kaiser/Harvard 20 25 37 15 2000 (Dec. 14-15)* ABC/Wash Post 31 25 28 12 2012 (Feb.) Kaiser 10 13 47 26 2012 (Apr.) Kaiser 13 18 40 24
NOTE: *The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Bush vs. Gore was announced on December 12, 2000. Question wording varies slightly.
• I’m going to read you the names of some institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself
have in each one: a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little...The U.S. Supreme Court? Great deal Quite a lot Some Very little 1997 Hart/Council for Excellence in Govt. 15% 27% 38% 18% 1999 Hart/Council for Excellence in Govt. 17 26 36 17 2000 (Aug.)* Hart/Council for Excellence in Govt. 17 28 36 16 2001 (Nov.) Hart/Council for Excellence in Govt. 27 28 29 12 NOTE: *The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Bush vs. Gore was announced on December 12, 2000.
• Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? Approve Disapprove 2000 (Aug.-Sep.) Gallup 62% 29% 2001 (Jan.) Gallup 59 34 2001 (Jun.) Gallup 62 25 2001 (Sep.) Gallup 58 28 2002 (Sep.) Gallup 60 29 2003 (Jul.) Gallup 59 33 2003 (Sep.) Gallup 52 38 2004 (Sep.) Gallup 51 39 2005 (Jun.) Gallup 48 42 2005 (Sep.) Gallup 56 36 2006 (Sep.) Gallup 60 32 2007 (May) Gallup 51 36 2008 (Jun.) Gallup 48 38 2008 (Sep.) Gallup 50 39 2009 (Jun.) Gallup 59 30 2009 (Aug.-Sep.) Gallup 61 28
APPROVAL: For decades, Americans have been asked regularly whether they approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling his job. Job approval questions about the court were much later in coming, and they are asked less frequently. A May-June 2012 CBS/New York Times survey found that 44 percent of Americans approved of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job, while 36 percent disapproved. Approval among partisans has varied substantially since Bush v. Gore.
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2010 (Sep) Gallup 51 39 2011 (Jun.)* Time/Abt SRBI 47 34 2011 (Sep.) Gallup 46 40 2012 (Apr.) CNN/ORC 50 41 2012 (May-Jun.) CBS/NYT 44 36 (Demographic Breakdowns) Republicans Democrats Independents Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Aug.-Sep. 2000 Gallup 60% 35% 70% 18% 57% 34% Jan. 2001 Gallup 80 15 42 50 54 38 Jun. 2001 Gallup 74 18 54 32 59 26 Sep. 2001 Gallup 69 19 55 32 52 31 Sep. 2002 Gallup 66 23 57 33 58 30 Jul. 2003 Gallup 57 35 59 33 61 31 Sep. 2003 Gallup 55 40 45 43 57 32 Sep. 2004 Gallup 57 36 44 47 52 35 Sep. 2006 Gallup 75 -- 48 -re- 60 -- May 2007 Gallup 69 -- 41 -- 47 -- Jun. 2008 Gallup 65 -- 38 -- 47 -- Jun. 2009 Gallup 49 -- 70 -- 57 -- Aug.-Sep. 2009 Gallup 49 -- 75 -- 59 -- Sep. 2010 Gallup 42 -- 61 -- 50 -- Sep. 2011 Gallup 50 -- 46 -- 44 -- Jun. 2011 Time/Abt SRBI 48 34 44 36 49 34 Apr. 2012 CNN/ORC 52 42 50 39 48 42 May-Jun. 2012 CBS/NYT 42 35 51 32 39 39
NOTE: *Question wording was “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?”
• Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? Approve Disapprove Mar. 2003 Quinnipiac 56% 28% Mar. 2003* Quinnipiac 56 27 Dec. 2004* Quinnipiac 50 33 May 2005* Quinnipiac 44 39 Jul. 2005* Quinnipiac 50 39 Nov.-Dec. 2005* Quinnipiac 50 32 May 2007 Quinnipiac 58 27 Aug. 2007 Quinnipiac 45 37 Jul. 2008 Quinnipiac 39 43 Sep. 2008 Quinnipiac 50 39 May 2009* Quinnipiac 62 22 Jun. 2009 Quinnipiac 62 22 Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 49 33 Apr. 2012 Quinnipiac 52 31 (Demographic breakdowns, party ID) Republicans Democrats Independent Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove 2005 (May)* Quinnipiac 56% 31% 39% 43% 41% 41% 2005 (Jul.)* Quinnipiac 55 35 48 38 50 41 2005 (Dec.) Quinnipiac 57 28 39 39 57 29 2007 (May) Quinnipiac 70 18 50 37 55 26 2007 (Aug.) Quinnipiac 65 21 35 47 40 41
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2008 (Jul.) Quinnipiac 46 35 34 49 41 41 2009 (May)* Quinnipiac 58 28 66 18 61 23 2009 (Jun.) Quinnipiac 60 25 66 20 61 22 2010 (Apr.) Quinnipiac 44 36 56 27 49 34 2012 (Apr.) Quinnipiac 62 23 44 38 51 31 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters. (Demographic breakdowns, gender) Men Women Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove 2005 (May)* Quinnipiac 46% 40% 43% 37% 2005 (Jul.)* Quinnipiac 52 41 48 37 2005 (Dec.) Quinnipiac 54 32 47 33 2007 (May) Quinnipiac 63 28 54 27 2007 (Aug.) Quinnipiac 48 39 43 36 2009 (Jun.) Quinnipiac 64 22 60 22 2010 (Apr.) Quinnipiac 47 34 50 32 2012 (Apr.) Quinnipiac 56 30 47 32 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Do you approve or disapprove of the job the United States Supreme Court is doing? Approve Disapprove Jan. 2006 * Fox News 50% 30% Apr. 2012* Fox News 48 33 (Demographic breakdowns, April 2012) Democrats 43% 41% Republicans 52 30 Independents 52 26 Men 54% 30% Women 42 37 Under 35 53% 28% 35-54 49 34 55+ 44 37 65+ 41 36
NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court of the United States has been doing its job?
Approve Disapprove 1986 ABC/Wash Post 66% 25% 1987 ABC/Wash Post 65 28 1991 ABC/Wash Post 59 30 1995 ABC/Wash Post 63 31
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• Would you say your overall opinion of the United States Supreme Court is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable or very unfavorable? ---------------Overall opinion of Supreme Court-----------------------
Very Mostly Mostly Very favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable 1987 (May) Pew 13% 63% 15% 2% 1988 (Jan.) Pew 14 65 11 2 1990 (May) Pew 10 55 18 7 1991 (Nov.) Pew 18 54 16 5 1993 (May) Pew 17 56 14 4 1994 (Jul.) Pew 18 62 13 3 1997 (May) Pew 16 56 17 5 1997 (Oct.) Pew 13 64 12 6 2001 (Jan.) Pew 18 50 13 8 2001 (Mar.) Pew 15 57 15 7 2001 (Jul.) Pew 15 55 14 6 2005 (Jun.) Pew 8 49 22 8 2005 (Jul.) Pew 12 49 18 10 2005 (Oct.) Pew 12 50 17 10 2006 (Feb.) Pew 16 44 18 10 2006 (Jul.) Pew 7 56 19 8 2007 (Mar.) Pew 18 54 14 3 2007 (Jul.) Pew 12 45 20 9 2008 (Apr.) Pew 15 50 18 7 2009 (Mar.) Pew 8 56 15 6 2010 (Feb.) Pew 8 50 19 8 2010 (Jul.) Pew 9 49 17 8 2012 (Apr.) Pew 11 41 20 10
• Generally speaking, what is your impression of the United States Supreme Court? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about it to say?
---------------------Impression of Supreme Court today------------------- Very Somewhat Somewhat Very favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable 1989 LA Times 7% 33% 23% 11% 1991 LA Times 10 43 18 5 1991 LA Times 10 34 16 6 2000 (Dec. 14-16)* LA Times 22 28 17 14 NOTE: *The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Bush vs. Gore was announced on December 12, 2000.
FAVORABILITY: In Pew’s April 2012 poll, 52 percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Supreme Court and 30 percent an unfavorable opinion, a large change from 2008 when 65 percent had a favorable opinion and 25 percent an unfavorable one. In January 2001, after the Supreme Court’s ruling in Bush v. Gore, 68 percent had a favorable opinion. Pew has asked this question 23 times since 1987, when overall favorability was higher than it is today (76 to 52 percent).
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• What is your overall impression of the United States Supreme Court... very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable or not familiar?
---------------------Impression of the Supreme Court------------------- Very Somewhat Somewhat Very favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable Jul. 2001 Zogby 13% 53% 16% 7%
• Now I’m going to read you a list of institutions in the country. For each, please tell me if you are extremely confident, very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not confident at all in the people who are running each institution. The Supreme Court.
Extremely Very Somewhat Not too Not at all confident confident confident confident confident
Aug. 2010 AP-GfK/Roper 3% 13% 58% 14% 11% Aug. 2011 AP-GfK/Roper 7 17 54 10 10
• Do you think the present U.S. Supreme Court has been too liberal, about right, or not liberal enough in its decisions in the last year, or so? ------------Supreme court has been-------------
Too About Not liberal liberal right enough Feb. 1941 Gallup 18% 46% 3%
• In general, how would you describe the current makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court...too liberal, too conservative, or just about right?
---------Current makeup of the Court is-------- Too Just Too Liberal about right Conservative Sep. 1987 NBC/WSJ 19% 47% 19%
• In general, do you think the current Supreme Court is too liberal, too conservative, or just about right? (Gallup) • Do you think the United States Supreme Court is generally too liberal, too conservative, or about right in its decisions? (Fox
News) • Do you think the Supreme Court is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? (Quinnipiac)
-----------------Supreme Court is------------------ Too Too liberal About right conservative Jul. 1973^ Gallup 35% 17% 25% Jun. 1993* Gallup 18 20 17 Jun. 1993# Gallup 22 45 24 Jul. 1995 Gallup 31 41 20 Sep. 2004 Gallup 28 40 27 Sep. 2005 Gallup 25 45 25
THE COURT’S POWER AND BALANCE TODAY: When Americans are asked about the Supreme Court today, most say that it is “about right” or “balanced,” or that it has “the right amount” of power. An April 2012 Fox News poll found that a strong plurality, 45 percent, said the court tends to be generally balanced in its decisions. Twenty-one percent said it was too conservative, and 26 percent too liberal.
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Sep. 2006 Gallup 21 43 31 Sep. 2007 Gallup 21 43 32 Sep. 2008 Gallup 21 43 30 Aug.-Sep 2009 Gallup 28 50 19 Jul.-Aug. 2010 Gallup 32 43 19 Sep. 2011 Gallup 31 42 20 Feb. 2012 Kaiser 26 38 26 Too liberal About right Too Conservative Jun.-Jul. 2003** Fox News 30% 37% 20% Jan. 2006** Fox News 28 42 17 Apr. 2010** Fox News 27 46 16 Apr. 2012** Fox News 26 45 21 Too liberal About right Too conservative Mar. 2003 Quinnipiac 19% 46% 26% Aug. 2007 Quinnipiac 20 37 29 Jul. 2008 Quinnipiac 25 33 31 Apr. 2010^^ Quinnipiac 29 40 19
NOTE: ^ Question wording was “In general, do you think the U.S. Supreme Court is too liberal or too conservative in its decisions?” # Asked of half-sample. *Question wording was “...just about right, or are you unsure?” 45 percent answered either no opinion or unsure. Question asked of a half sample. **Question asked of registered voters. ^^ NOTE: When broken down by party, the responses for Republicans were 53 (liberal), 7 (conservative), and 31 (about right) percent, respectively. For Democrats, the responses were 8 (liberal), 32 (conservative), 46 (about right). For Independents, the responses were 30 (liberal), 19 (conservative), 41 (about right) respectively.
• Do you think the Supreme Court currently tends to be too conservative or too liberal in its decisions or is it generally
balanced in its decisions? ----------------Court tends to be------------- Too Generally Too conservative balanced liberal Jun. 1986 ABC/Wash Post 19% 54% 18% Sep. 1987 ABC/Wash Post 19 52 24 Jun. 1989 Wash Post 26 36 21 Jul. 1991 ABC/Wash Post 33 39 21 Sep. 1991 ABC 31 48 16 Jul. 1995 ABC/Wash Post 22 54 22 Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 19 55 22 Jul. 2007 ABC/Wash Post 31 47 18 Apr. 2010 ABC/Wash Post 21 46 26
• In general, do you think the United States Supreme Court is too liberal or too conservative in its decisions? -----------Supreme court is---------- Too liberal Too conservative Jun. 1986 CBS/NYT 34% 38% Jul. 1987 CBS/NYT 36 38 Sep. 1991 CBS/NYT 30 42
• Do you think that the Supreme Court in its recent rulings has been too liberal, too conservative, or just about right? ----------Recent rulings have been--------- Too Just Too Liberal about right Conservative Jul. 1986 Gallup 14% 42% 22% Jul. 1991* Gallup 20 39 25
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Aug. 2000* Gallup 27 49 16 Jul. 2003* Gallup 31 48 15 NOTE: *Question wording read, “In its recent rulings, do you think the Supreme Court has been too liberal, too conservative, or just about right?”
• In its recent rulings, do you think the Supreme Court has been too liberal, too conservative, or just about right? -----------------------------Supreme Court has been--------------------------- Too Liberal Too Conservative About Right Don’t Know Jul. 1986 PSRA/Newsweek 14% 22% 42% 22% Jul. 2007 PSRA/Newsweek 19 29 35 17
• In recent years, do you think the Supreme Court has become more conservative or more liberal in its decisions? ----In recent years, Court has become---- More More Conservative Liberal Jun. 1989 Wash Post 44% 36% Jul. 1991* ABC/Wash Post 52 32 Jul. 1995* ABC/Wash Post 49 39
NOTE: *Question wording was, “In the last few years, do you think the Supreme Court has been getting more conservative in its decisions, more liberal or what?”
• In general, do you think the United States Supreme Court is too liberal or too conservative in its decisions?
------Current Makeup of the Court is------ Too Liberal Too Conservative Jul. 1991 NBC/WSJ 33% 44% May 1992 NBC/WSJ 26 50 Apr. 2012 NBC/WSJ 33 35
• In general, do you think the United States Supreme Court is in touch with what is going on in the country, or not? -------------------Supreme Court is---------------- In touch with what is going on in the country Not in touch Jun. 2003 * Fox News 51% 38% NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• As you probably know, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor has announced her retirement from the Supreme Court. During her time on the Court, she has been known as a moderate justice or the “swing vote” on many decisions. In naming Justice O’Connor’s replacement, what type of judge should President Bush nominate to fill her seat? Do you think the Supreme Court currently tends to be too conservative or too liberal in its decisions or is it generally balanced in its decisions?
-----------------Court tends to be------------- Too Generally Too conservative balanced liberal Jul. 2005 Harris Interactive 23% 43% 15%
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• Now thinking about the U.S. Supreme Court, in its recent rulings, do you think the Supreme Court has been too liberal, too conservative, or just about right?
-----------Recent rulings have been------------- Too Just Too Liberal about Right Conservative Jul. 2005 Westhill/Hotline 27% 38% 21%
• In your view, do you think the current Supreme Court is conservative, middle of the road, or liberal? ------------------Supreme Court is------------------ Conservative Middle of the road Liberal Jul. 2007 Pew 36% 35% 14% Apr. 2010 Pew 24 36 24 Jul. 2010 Pew 23 39 23
• Do you think the United States Supreme Court is moving in the right direction?
Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know Aug. 2007* Quinnipiac 39% 37% 25% Jul. 2008* Quinnipiac 33 42 25 Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 35 37 28
NOTE: Twenty-eight percent of Republicans said the Supreme Court was moving in the right direction; 47 percent of Democrats said right direction; 32 percent of independents said right direction. *Question wording read “. . . is moving in the right direction or wrong direction.”
• Just your impression . . . over the past two decades, do you think the Supreme Court has become more conservative, become
more liberal or has it stayed about the same? Become more Become more Has stayed about conservative liberal the same Apr. 2010 Pew 19% 28% 43%
• Would you say that Supreme Court decisions over the past few years have been too conservative, too liberal, or just about right?
--Over the past few years, the Supreme Court has been-- Too liberal About right Too conservative Jun. 2011 Time/Abt SRBI 30% 36% 24%
• Do you think the Supreme Court is too powerful, not powerful enough, or does it have about the right amount of power?
-----------------Supreme Court is------------------- Too Right Not powerful powerful amount enough Apr. 2003* Quinnipiac 25% 60% 11% Nov. 2004 AP/Ipsos 23 62 10 (Demographic Breakdowns, Apr. 2003) Republicans 21% 71% 6% Democrats 30 51 13 Independents 22 62 12
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What Americans Wanted of Obama’s Nominees
• When it comes to appointing liberal justices to the Supreme Court, are you concerned that Barack Obama will go too far, or not? Concerned Not concerned Jan. 2009 NBC/WSJ 38% 57%
• Next, as you may know, President Obama will announce later this year a nominee to the Supreme Court. Do you think Obama
should nominate somebody who is very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? ----------------------Obama should nominate somebody who is---------------------- Somewhat Somewhat Very Very liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative May 2009 CNN/ORC 9% 18% 37% 19% 16% Apr. 2010 CNN/ORC 8 17 37 19 17
• And just your best guess – do you think Obama will nominate somebody who is very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate,
somewhat conservative, or very conservative? ------------------------Obama will nominate somebody who is------------------------ Somewhat Somewhat Very Very liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Apr. 2010 CNN/ORC 33% 28% 21% 9% 7%
THE IDEOLOGY OF THE NEXT JUSTICE, NEW COURT: In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation question asked in April 2010, 37 percent said President Obama should nominate a conservative to the court, while 36 percent wanted him to nominate a moderate and 25 percent a liberal. Sixty-one percent, however, in another question said they expected him to nominate a liberal. In questions asked before Judge Roberts’s nomination, most Americans told the pollsters they want Bush to nominate a moderate to the court. In a June 2005 ABC News/Washington Post question, for example, 41 percent said that Bush should pick someone who is more of a moderate, 21 percent more of a liberal, and 35 percent more of a conservative. A September 2005 question from Pew with a slightly different emphasis showed that 39 percent wanted Bush to choose someone who would keep the court about the same as it is now. Twenty-four percent wanted the court to be more liberal and 30 percent more conservative. In a June 2005 Gallup question, 30 percent wanted a justice who would make the court more liberal than it is now, 41 percent more conservative, and 35 percent about the same. In Gallup’s subgroup analysis, liberals and conservatives were mirror images on one another on this question. A July 2005 Hotline/Westhill Partners poll found that 42 percent wanted Bush to replace O’Connor with someone who would keep the court about where it is now, while 30 percent wanted a more conservative justice, and 20 percent more liberal.
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• Do you think President Obama’s nominee to the US Supreme Court will be more liberal than you would like, not liberal enough, or about right? -----------------Obama’s nomine will be--------------- More liberal than you like Not liberal enough About right Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 42% 8% 42%
• As you may know, Justice John Paul Stevens is retiring from the Supreme Court. How confident are you that President Obama will make the right decision about who should replace Justice Stevens on the Supreme court? -------Confident that Obama will make right decision to replace Stevens---- Very Somewhat Not too Not at all confident confident confident confident Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 27% 26% 18% 28%
• When President Obama nominates the next justice to the U.S. Supreme Court, do you want him to nominate someone who is more of a liberal or someone who is more of a conservative? ----Want Obama to nominate--- A liberal A conservative Apr. 2010 Fox News 29% 52% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Would you like to see President Obama nominate a new justice who would make the Supreme Court more liberal than it currently is, more conservative than it currently is, or who would keep the Court as it is now? ------Would like Obama to nominate justice to make SC---- More liberal More conservative Keep as it is now May 2010 Gallup/USA Today 27% 42% 24%
What Americans Wanted of George W. Bush’s Nominees
• I’m going to read you a list of areas in which some people are concerned that George W. Bush will go too far. For each one, please tell me whether this concerns you or not appointing conservative justices to the Supreme Court?
Concerned Not concerned Jan. 2001 NBC/WSJ 45% 50%
NOTE: Out of the five issues asked, appointing conservative justices to the Supreme Court concerned people the least. The biggest concern was passing school voucher legislation which will affect funding for public schools (54 percent), allowing development and exploration of natural resources in wilderness lands (52 percent), regulating abortion (49 percent), and cutting taxes (46 percent).
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• When it comes time for Bush to nominate a new justice to the U.S. Supreme Court, do you think he should pick someone who is more of a liberal, moderate or conservative?
-------Bush should pick someone who is more of a----- Liberal Moderate Conservative Dec. 2004 ABC/Wash Post 21% 43% 33% Jun. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 21 41 35
• In making his next appointment to the Supreme Court, should President Bush choose someone who will make the court more liberal, someone who will make it more conservative, or someone who will keep the court about the same as it is now?
-------Bush should choose someone who will make the Court----- More More About liberal conservative same Mar. 2005 Pew 24% 28% 41% Jun. 2005 Pew 28 29 35 Jul. 2005 Pew 24 27 40 Sep. 2005 Pew 24 30 39
• In general, do you think federal court judges are too liberal, too conservative, or just about right? Too liberal Too conservative About right May 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 29% 19% 44% Oct. 2006 CNN/ORC 34 20 41
• When President Bush nominates the next justice to the U.S. Supreme Court, do you want him to nominate someone who is more of a liberal or someone who is more of a conservative?
-------------Bush should nominate someone who is more of a------------- Liberal Conservative Moderate Not consider ideology (Vol.) (Vol.) Jul. 2005* Fox News 25% 39% 12% 8% NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters. Moderate and not consider ideology are volunteered responses.
• Suppose one of the U.S. Supreme Court justices retires at the end of this term. Would you like to see President (George W.) Bush nominate a new justice who would make the Supreme Court – more liberal than it currently is, more conservative than it currently is – or who would keep the Court as it is now?
---Would like to see Bush nominate someone who would make the Supreme Court------ More More Keep as liberal conservative it is now Jun. 2005 Gallup 30% 41% 24% (Demographic breakdowns) More More Keep as liberal conservative it is now Liberals 70% 10% 17% Democrats 46 25 24 Seldom/never attend church 37 30 27 Men, 18 to 49 36 37 26 Independents 34 35 27 Weekly/monthly churchgoers 32 44 21 Men 32 40 24 Moderates 32 29 35 Women, 18 to 49 31 41 23
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All U.S. Adults 30 41 24 Women 28 42 25 Women, 50 and older 26 43 26 Men, 50 and older 25 46 22 Weekly churchgoers 19 55 22 White, weekly churchgoers 17 60 20 Republicans 10 64 23 Conservatives 8 71 18
• When the next U.S. Supreme Court justice retires, would you like the person nominated to fill that vacancy on the Supreme Court to have political views that are...very conservative, somewhat conservative, somewhat liberal, or very liberal?
---------Next nominee should have political views that are------- Very Somewhat Somewhat Very conservative conservative liberal liberal Sep. 2004 AP/Ipsos 20% 36% 28% 9%
• As you may know Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor resigned recently. In making his appointment to replace her, should President Bush choose someone who will make the court more liberal, someone who will make it more conservative, or someone who will keep the court about the same as it is right now/?
-------Bush should choose someone who would make the Court----- More liberal Keep same as now More conservative Jul. 2005 Westhill/Hotline 20% 42% 30%
• President Bush may have the opportunity to make several nominations to the Supreme Court. Would you like to see him make the court more conservative, more liberal, or keep the present balance?
------Bush should nominate someone who would make the Court-------- More liberal Keep balance More conservative May 2005 Quinnipiac 29% 39% 27%
• As you may know, there is a possibility that one or two justices of the United States Supreme Court may retire during George W. Bush’s term in office. Do you think Bush’s nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court will be very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or will his nominee be very liberal?
-------------Bush’s nominees will be--------------- Somewhat/Very Somewhat/Very conservative Moderate liberal Jan. 2005 LA Times 65% 10% 11%
• There is a possibility that one or two justices of the United States Supreme Court may retire during George W. Bush’s term in office. Do you think Bush’s nominees to the US Supreme Court will be conservative, moderate or liberal?
------------Bush’s nominees will be------------ Conservative Moderate Liberal Mar. 2001 LA Times 63% 17% 10%
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• Do you think George W. Bush’s nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court have been more conservative than you would like, not conservative enough, or about right?
--------------------Bush’s nominees have been--------------- More conservative Not conservative than you would like enough About right Jan. 2005* CBS/NYT 33% 15% 44% Oct. 2005 CBS 30 16 42 Dec. 2005 CBS/NYT 25 15 50 Mar. 2007 CBS/NYT 24 17 44
NOTE: *Question wording was originally, “As president, George W. Bush may appoint several justices to the United States Supreme Court. Do you think his nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court will be more conservative than you would like, not conservative enough, or about right?”
• Do you worry that the president’s next Supreme Court appointment will make the court too conservative, not conservative
enough, or don’t you worry about this? -------Next President’s appointment will make court-------
Too Not conservative Don’t conservative enough worry Jul. 2005 Pew 31% 19% 44%
• Do you think President Bush is trying to make the Supreme Court too conservative, too liberal, or neither too conservative nor too liberal?
Too conservative Too liberal Neither Nov. 2005 Harris Interactive 42% 9% 44%
• How comfortable are you with Barack Obama selecting the next U.S. Supreme Court nominee? Very Somewhat Somewhat Very comfortable comfortable uncomfortable uncomfortable May 2009 Fox News* 34% 26% 13% 20% Apr. 2010 ABC/Wash Post 36 29 12 21 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
THE PRESIDENT’S DECISION OR THE SENATE’S?: Although the questions weren’t asked often, the ones asked before Obama nominated Sonia Sotomayor suggest that people were comfortable with Obama selecting the next Court nominee. In a May 2009 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics question, for example, 60 percent said they were comfortable, while 33 percent said they were uncomfortable. At the same time, however, as a general matter, people said they trusted the Senate more than the President to make the right decisions about who should sit on the court. CBS News and the New York Times have asked this question five times between 1987 and 2001 with virtually identical responses. A June 2005 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics question with a different emphasis produced this result: 31 percent said the president should have the strongest voice in selecting justices, and 47 percent said the Senate should. Twenty-four percent volunteered that both should have an equal voice.
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• Given President George W. Bush’s appointments in other areas, how comfortable are you with him selecting the next Supreme Court nominee? . . . Very comfortable, somewhat comfortable, not very comfortable, or not at all comfortable?
---------Comfortable with Bush selecting next Supreme Court nominee-------- Very Somewhat Not very Not at all comfortable comfortable comfortable comfortable Jun. 2003# Fox News 32% 27% 14% 20% Nov. 2004*# Fox News 39 20 10 24 Jun. 2005*# Fox News 31 23 15 28 NOTE: *Question wording read, “How comfortable are you...” #Question asked of registered voters.
• How confident are you that George W. Bush will make good choices to replace justices who leave the U.S. (United States) Supreme Court – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
----Confident Bush will make good choices to replace justices---- Very Somewhat Not too Not at all confident confident confident confident Nov. 2004 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 36% 25% 14% 24% NOTE: Question asked of a half sample.
• How much confidence do you have that President _____will select the right kind of person to sit on the Supreme Court – a great deal, quite a bit, some, very little, or none at all?
Great Quite a Very None deal bit Some little at all Bush Jul. 2005 NBC/WSJ 21% 20% 21% 23% 14% Obama May 2010 NBC/WSJ 27 17 18 14 23
• Do you have confidence that George W. Bush will nominate good justices to the Supreme Court, or are you uneasy about who he might choose?
Confidence Uneasy Jul. 2005 CBS/NYT 46% 52%
• In President George W. Bush’s second term, he may have the opportunity to appoint several new justices to the United States Supreme Court. How comfortable are you that George W. Bush would nominate the right kind of justices to the Supreme Court? . . . Very comfortable, somewhat comfortable, not too comfortable, not at all comfortable?
-----Comfortable that Bush will nominate right kind of justice---- Very Somewhat Not too Not at all comfortable comfortable comfortable comfortable Nov. 2004 AP/Ipsos 37% 22% 12% 29% NOTE: Asked of registered voters.
• When you think about how the Bush Administration may deal with...appointing judges to the U.S. (United States) Supreme Court, do you feel mostly hopeful or mostly fearful, or would you say your feelings are mixed?
Hopeful Fearful Mixed Jan. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 43% 26% 29%
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• If George W. Bush is able to nominate justices to the U.S. (United States) Supreme Court in his second term in office, do you think his choices would make the Supreme Court’s rulings better, worse, or would there be no change?
Better Worse No Change Jan. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 33% 25% 40%
• Who do you trust more to make the right decisions about who should sit on the United States Supreme Court – George W. Bush or the Senate Democrats?
Bush Sen. Democrats Jun. 2001 CBS/NYT 37% 51% NOTE: Question asked of a half sample.
• Who do you trust to make the right decisions about who should sit on the United States Supreme Court – the President or the U.S. Senate?
President U.S. Senate Sep. 1987 CBS/NYT 23% 70% Sep. 1991 CBS/NYT 31 55 Oct. 1991 CBS/NYT 25 55 May 2001 CBS 23 67 Jun. 2001* CBS/NYT 23 68 Note: *Asked of a half sample.
• Who do you think should have the strongest voice in selecting Supreme Court justices – the president or the U.S. Senate? President U.S. Senate Both (vol.) Jul. 2005 Fox News 31% 37% 24% Note: Asked of registered voters.
• As you may know, there are 100 Senators. How many Senators’ votes should it take to move ahead to confirm a Supreme Court nominee? Should a majority of 51 votes be required, or is this something that should require a larger majority of 60 votes?
Majority of 51 Votes Larger Majority Of 60 May 2005 CBS/NYT 31% 64%
• Who do you trust more to make the right decisions about who should sit on the United States Supreme Court – President Obama or the Republicans in the United States Senate?
President Obama Republicans in the Senate Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 46% 43% NOTE: Question asked of a half sample.
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Views and Qualifications of the Nominee
• When a Senate votes on a Supreme Court nominee, should it only consider that person’s legal qualifications and background, or along with legal background, should the Senate also consider how that nominee might vote on major issues the Supreme Court decides?
Legal qualifications How might & background vote on issues Sep. 1987 CBS/NYT 39% 52% Sep. 1991 CBS/NYT 39 49 Jul. 2005 CBS/NYT 45 47 Jul.-Aug. 2005 CBS/NYT 46 46 Sep. 2005 CBS 33 58 Sep. 2005 CBS/NYT 36 54 Sep.-Oct. 2005 CBS 35 54 Jan. 2006 CBS 41 49 June 2009 CBS/NYT 30 62
• As you may know, a majority of the United States Senate must vote to confirm a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court ...Assuming a nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court is qualified legally and has no ethical problems, do you think a U.S. Senator would be justified – or not justified – in basing his or her vote on that nominee’s stance on current issues such as abortion, gun control, or affirmative action?
----Basing vote on nominee’s stance on current issues----- Justified Not justified Jun. 2002 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 59% 36% NOTE: Question asked of a half sample.
THE NEXT NOMINEE: LEGAL BACKGROUND AND OTHER ISSUES: This section looks at questions about whether the Senate should consider a person’s legal qualifications only or the nominee’s views on issues. Many of the questions ask about abortion. We have looked closely at abortion attitudes over time in another AEI Public Opinion Study. Americans tell the pollsters that they want the new justice to uphold Roe v. Wade. People also seem to want to know the nominee’s position on the issue. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal question asked in July 2005, however, finds that a majority (53 percent) does not believe a nominee should be required to state his or her opinions on critical issues such as abortion. There are clearly contradictions (which probably reflect low levels of knowledge or attentiveness or the way questions are worded) in the data here. People want the nominee to uphold Roe, they thought Bush was likely to appoint a nominee who would vote to make abortion against the law, yet as the questions in the previous section showed, they have generally felt comfortable with Bush making the decision. AEI’s Public Opinion Study on Abortion examines these issues in more detail, which you can view at AEI.org.
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• Would you favor or oppose appointing someone who isn’t a lawyer to the U.S. Supreme Court? Strongly Somewhat Strongly Somewhat favor favor oppose oppose Sep. 2009 AP-GfK/Roper 16% 24% 24% 34%
• As you may know, a majority of the United States Senate must vote to confirm a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court ...Which comes closest to your view about a U.S. Senator’s vote about a nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court – a senator should only vote against a nominee if that person is not legally qualified or has some ethical problem, or a senator would be justified in voting against a nominee if the Senator disagrees with the nominee’s stance on issues such as abortion, gun control, or affirmative action, but the nominee was qualified otherwise?
Only vote against Justified if disagrees if not qualified with stance on issues Jun. 2002 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 57% 40% NOTE: Question asked of a half sample.
• Over the past twenty years, nominees for the U.S. Supreme Court have refused to discuss their views on specific issues, such as whether a woman has the constitutional right to be able to have an abortion, during their confirmation hearings in the U.S. Senate. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your view about whether a Supreme Court nominee should publicly state his or her position on critical issues before the Court. A nominee should be required to state his or her positions on these issues so that senators have this information to decide whether to confirm this person for life or a nominee should not be required to state his or her positions on these issues as judges should be selected based on their experience and overall qualifications, not their positions on issues that may come before the Court later.
------Supreme Court nominee should state publicly position on issues like abortion----- Required Not required Jul. 2005 NBC/WSJ 43% 53% Sep. 2005 NBC/WSJ 36 57
• Do you think the public has the right to know about the private life of anyone nominated to the Supreme Court?
Yes No May 2010 Fox News 61% 34% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 54% 41% Republicans 71 25 Independents 59 35
• Now thinking about future nominees to the United States Supreme Court, how important is it to you, personally, that they share your views on the abortion issue – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Very Somewhat Not too Not at all important important important important May 2005 Gallup 45% 31% 15% 8%
• How important is it to you that the next person nominated to join the U.S. Supreme Court agrees with your position on abortion...is that extremely important to you, very important, somewhat important, or less important than that?
Extremely Very Somewhat Less important important important important than that Dec. 2004 ABC/Wash Post 26% 28% 30% 15%
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• Do you think the next person nominated to join the United States Supreme Court should be someone who thinks abortion should be legal in all or most cases, or someone who thinks abortion should be illegal in all or most cases? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
----Supreme Court nominee should be someone who thinks abortion should be------- Legal all/most Legal all/most Illegal all/most Illegal all/most cases strongly cases somewhat cases somewhat cases strongly Jun. 2003 ABC 34% 16% 9% 35%
• Do you think that any nominee to the Supreme Court should publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved by the Senate, or do you think that nominees should not be required to state their position on that issue?
------Supreme Court nominee should-state publicly position on abortion----- Required Not required Jan. 2005 LA Times 46% 48%
• Do you think the next person nominated to join the United States Supreme Court should or should not publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved by the U.S. Senate for the job?
-------Publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved--- Should Should not Dec. 2004 Quinnipiac 62% 32%
• Do you think the next person nominated to join the United States Supreme Court should or should not publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved by the U.S. Senate for the job?
-------Publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved--- Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly should should should not should not Jun. 2003 ABC 57% 15% 8% 16%
• If a nominee to the United States Supreme Court is a qualified judge, do you think it is acceptable or unacceptable for a U.S. Senator to base his or her vote on the nominee becoming a Supreme Court justice solely on the nominee’s position on abortion?
Acceptable Unacceptable Jun.-July 2003 Fox News 15% 72% Jul. 2005 Fox News 20 73 Dec. 2005 Fox News 15 75 NOTE: Questions asked of registered voters.
• Before Senators vote on whether a nominee should be confirmed to the Supreme Court, how important do you think it is for the Senate to know his or her position on abortion – is that very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important? -----------Important for Senate to know position on abortion------------
Very Somewhat Not very Not at all important important important important Dec. 2005 CBS/NYT 37% 34% 16% 12%
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• Do you think picking justices to sit on the Supreme Court is mainly about the issue of abortion, or is it mainly about issues other than abortion? Abortion Other Issues Jul. 2009 Fox News 22% 69% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 20% 70% Republicans 25 66 Independents 23 70 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Should Senators support or oppose President Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court based only on whether he or she is
qualified to be a justice, or should they also consider controversial issues like abortion and gay marriage? Qualifications Consider views Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 47% 43%
Roberts’s views on Abortion
• Do you think it would be appropriate or inappropriate for senators to ask Roberts general questions about his overall views on the abortion issue?
Appropriate Inappropriate Jul. 2005 Gallup 74% 22%
• Do you think it would be appropriate or inappropriate for senators to ask Roberts specific questions about how he would rule on individual cases involving the abortion issue?
Appropriate Inappropriate Jul. 2005 Gallup 61% 36%
• Do you think Supreme Court nominee John Roberts should or should not publicly state his position on abortion? Should publicly Should not publicly state view state view Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 61% 32%
• Do you think United States Senators would be justified or not justified in voting against Supreme Court nominee John Roberts if he refuses to state his position on abortion?
Justified Not justified Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 43% 47%
• When the U.S. Senate holds hearings on the John Roberts nomination, do you think Senators should insist that he explain his views on abortion before confirming, or should he be allowed to refuse to answer questions about abortion?
Insist he explain Allowed to refuse his views to answer Jul. 2005 Gallup 61% 37%
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• Do you think Roberts should or should not publicly state his position on abortion before being approved by the U.S. Senate for the job?
-------Publicly state his position on abortion before being approved--- Should Should not Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 64% 34%
• Do you think Roberts should or should not publicly state his position on abortion before being approved by the U.S. Senate for the job?
-------Publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved--- Should Should not Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 64% 34%
Bush’s Nominees and Abortion
• When George W. Bush appoints Supreme Court justices do you think he is likely to appoint justices who will vote to keep abortion legal or justices who will votes to make abortion against the law?
------Likely to appoint justices who would------- Keep abortion Make abortion legal against the law Jan. 2003 CBS/NYT 29% 51% Nov. 2004 CBS/NYT 17 64 Jan. 2005 CBS/NYT 15 71
• George W. Bush said that he would not use a nominee’s beliefs on abortion as the deciding factor for his selection of a United States Supreme Court justice. Do you believe Bush when he says he will not use an abortion test for his selection of a United States Supreme Court justice, or do you not believe that?
----Believe that Bush will not use abortion test for selection---- Believe him Do not believe him Mar. 2001 LA Times 44% 42% Dec. 2002 LA Times 50 41 Jan. 2005 LA Times 45 50
• As you may know, President Bush may have the opportunity to appoint several new justices to the United States Supreme Court during his second term. Do you think the next person nominated to join the United States Supreme Court should or should not publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved by the U.S. Senate for the job?
-------Publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved--- Strongly Do not feel Do not feel strongly Strongly should strongly should should not should not Nov. 2004 AP/Ipsos 52% 9% 28% 8%
• As you may know, President Bush may have the opportunity to appoint several new justices to the United States Supreme Court during his second term. The 1973 Supreme Court decision ruling called Roe v Wade made abortion in the first three months of pregnancy legal. Do you think President Bush should nominate Supreme Court justices who would uphold Roe vs. Wade or nominate Supreme Court justices who would overturn the Roe vs. Wade decision?
------Bush should nominate Supreme Court justices who would----- Uphold Overturn Roe v Wade Roe v Wade Nov. 2004* AP/Ipsos 61% 34% Nov. 2004 AP/Ipsos 59 31 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
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• The 1973 Supreme Court decision ruling called Roe v Wade made abortion in the first three months of pregnancy legal. Do you think President Bush should nominate Supreme Court justices who would uphold Roe vs. Wade or nominate Supreme Court justices who would overturn the Roe vs. Wade decision?
------Bush should nominate Supreme Court justices who would----- Uphold Overturn Roe v Wade Roe v Wade Dec. 2004 Quinnipiac 50% 34%
• As you may know, _____________ is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of _______ serving on the Supreme Court, or not?
Yes No No Opinion Aug.- Sep. 1987 (Bork) # Gallup 31% 25% 44% Sep. 1987 (Bork)# Gallup 38 35 26 Jul. 1991 (Thomas) * Gallup 52 17 31 Jun. 1993 (Ginsburg) ^ Gallup 53 14 33 Jul. 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 59 22 19 Aug. 5-7, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 51 28 21 Aug. 28-30, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 52 26 22 Sep. 8-11, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 58 27 15 Sep. 16-18, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 60 26 14 Oct. 13-16, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 44 36 20 Oct. 21-23, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 42 43 15 Nov. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 50 25 25 Dec. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 49 29 22 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 49 30 21 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 54 30 16 May 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 54 28 19 Jun. 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/ORC 47 40 13 Jul. 10-12, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 53 33 13 Jul. 17-19, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 55 36 9 Jul.-Aug. 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/ORC 51 36 14
Jul.-Aug. 2010 (Kagan)** Gallup 46 36 18 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 44 34 22 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 34 12 Jun. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 44 39 17 May 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 46 32 22 May 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 36 11
NOTE: # Question wording was: “Robert Bork is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Reagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Bork serving on the U.S. Supreme Court, or not?; * Question wording read, “Clarence Thomas is a federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to
ELENA KAGAN: President Obama nominated Elena Kagan in May 2010 and Gallup noted that early soundings about her were a little less positive than initial soundings on most earlier nominees. This could have something to do with Kagan or it could be a commentary on the generally sour mood of the country. Even several months after Kagan had been nominated, many did not have an opinion on her. In a July 2010 Fox News poll, 40 percent said they had never heard of her.
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see the Senate vote in favor of Clarence Thomas serving on the Supreme Court?”; ^ question wording read, “Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Clinton to serve on the United States Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Ginsburg serving on the Supreme Court, or not?” **Question wording read ‘As you may know, Solicitor General Elena Kagan is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Kagan serving on the Supreme Court.
• As you may know, ___________ recently nominated ____________ to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you
strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose ________ serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly support support oppose oppose DK Sep. 2005 (John Roberts) NBC/WSJ 22% 16% 10% 10% 41% Oct. 2005 (Harriet Miers) NBC/WSJ 11 16 10 11 51 Nov. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 10 10 47 Dec. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 9 9 48 Jan. 2006 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 24 20 12 13 30 Jun. 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 21 22 9 11 35 Jul. 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 25 19 13 17 25 May 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC* 14 17 11 10 47 Jun. 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC/WSJ 11 18 9 14 47 NOTE: *Poll conducted by NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo.
• As you may know, Obama has nominated U.S. Solicitor General Elena Kagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you
think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Kagan’s nomination to the Supreme Court? Should Should not No opinion Jun. 2010 ABC/Wash Post 58% 24% 18%
• From what you’ve seen or heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court? Should Should not Refused/DK May 2010 Pew 33% 21% 46% Jun. 2010 Pew 33 25 42
• Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups, and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please say so. Elana Kagan. Very Positive Somewhat Positive Neutral Somewhat Negative Very Negative DK May 2010 NBC 6% 10% 19% 5% 6% 53%
• As you may know, Barack Obama recently nominated Elena Kagan to serve as justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Elana Kagan’s serving on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Don’t Know May 2010 NBC 14% 17% 11% 10% 47%
• As you may know, President Obama has nominated Solicitor General Elena Kagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court.
Generally speaking, how would you rate Obama’s choice of Elena Kagan as a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court – as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? Excellent Good Only fair Poor No opinion May 2010 Gallup 13% 27% 22% 14% 24%
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• Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s nomination of Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court? Approve Disapprove May 2010 Quinnipiac 48% 30% Jul. 2010 Quinnipiac 46 34
(Demographic breakdowns, May 2010) Republicans 22% 57% Democrats 73 10 Independents 45 31 (Demographic breakdowns, July 2010) Republicans 21% 57% Democrats 74 10 Independents 43 35
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough
about Elena Kagan yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven’t heard enough May 2010 CBS 16% 11% 23% 49%
• I’m going to read you the names of several individuals. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable
opinion of Elena Kagan. Favorable Unfavorable Can’t Say Never heard Jul. 2010 Fox News 24% 17% 19% 40%
• As you may know, Elena Kagan is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Kagan serving on the Supreme Court, or not? Yes, vote in favor Not vote in favor No opinion May 2010 CNN/ORC 54% 36% 11% Jun. 2010 (early) CNN/ORC 44 34 22 Jun. 2010 (mid) CNN/ORC 44 39 17 Jul. 2010 CNN/ORC 54 34 12 Jul.-Aug. 2010 CNN/ORC 46 36 18
• President Obama has nominated Elena Kagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. If you were voting on Kagen’s nomination, would you vote to confirm her or not? Yes, to confirm No, not confirm Don’t know May 2010* Fox News 39% 29% 33% Jun. 2010 * Fox News 38 36 26 NOTE: *Question of registered voters.
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Kagan and the Issue of Abortion
• Do you think Kagan should or should not publicly state her position on abortion before being approved by the U.S. Senate for the job? Should Should not No opinion Jun. 2010 ABC/WSJ 54% 42% 5% NOTE: Question asked of a half sample.
• Should Senators support or oppose Elena Kagan’s nomination to the Supreme Court based only on whether she is qualified to be a justice, or should they also consider her views on controversial issues like abortion and gay marriage? Qualifications Consider views May 2010 Quinnipiac 43% 43%
• If senators did not agree with Elena Kagan on controversial issues like abortion and gay marriage, do you think they would be justified, or not justified in using the filibuster to prevent her nomination from coming to a vote?
Justified Not justified Don’t know May 2010 Quinnipiac 37% 50% 13%
Kagan’s Ideological Leanings
• From what you know about Elena Kagan, as a Supreme Court Justice, do you think she would be too liberal, too conservative, or just about right? Too liberal Too conservative About right No opinion May 2010 CNN/ORC 40% 6% 50% 4%
• Based on what you have heard or read about her, do you think Elena Kagan’s views on important issues are in the mainstream or do you think they are too extreme? Mainstream Too extreme No opinion May 2010 CNN/ORC 54% 36% 10% What is your impression of Elena Kagan, do you think she is liberal, moderate or conservative? Liberal Moderate Conservative Don’t know Jun. 2010 Pew 28% 24% 7% 41%
• At her confirmation hearing, do you think Kagan should or should not answer questions about how she would have ruled on past cases that have come before the Supreme Court? Should Should not No opinion Jun. 2010 ABC/WSJ 66% 29% 5% NOTE: Asked of a half sample.
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• As you may know, ____________ is the federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the As you may know, _____________ is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of _______ serving on the Supreme Court, or not?
Yes No No Opinion Aug.- Sep. 1987 (Bork) # Gallup 31% 25% 44% Sep. 1987 (Bork)# Gallup 38 35 26 Jul. 1991 (Thomas) * Gallup 52 17 31 Jun. 1993 (Ginsburg) ^ Gallup 53 14 33 Jul. 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 59 22 19 Aug. 5-7, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 51 28 21 Aug. 28-30, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 52 26 22 Sep. 8-11, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 58 27 15 Sep. 16-18, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 60 26 14 Oct. 13-16, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 44 36 20 Oct. 21-23, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 42 43 15 Nov. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 50 25 25 Dec. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 49 29 22 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 49 30 21 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 54 30 16 May 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 54 28 19 Jun. 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/Gallup/USA Today 47 40 13 Jul. 10-12, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 53 33 13 Jul. 17-19, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 55 36 9 Jul. -Aug 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/ORC 51 36 14
Jul.-Aug. 2010 (Kagan)** Gallup 46 36 18 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 44 34 22 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 34 12 Jun. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 44 39 17 May 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 46 32 22 May 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 36 11
NOTE: # Question wording was: “Robert Bork is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Reagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Bork serving on the U.S. Supreme Court, or not?; * Question wording read, “Clarence Thomas is a federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Clarence Thomas serving on the Supreme Court?”; ^ question wording read, “Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Clinton to serve on the United States Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Ginsburg serving on the Supreme Court, or not?” **Question wording read ‘As you may know, Solicitor General Elena Kagan is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Kagan serving on the Supreme Court.
• As you may know, ___________ recently nominated ____________ to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you
strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose ________ serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly support support oppose oppose DK Sep. 2005 (John Roberts) NBC/WSJ 22% 16% 10% 10% 41% Oct. 2005 (Harriet Miers) NBC/WSJ 11 16 10 11 51
SONIA SOTOMAYOR: Initial reactions to Judge Sotomayor were positive, as the questions below indicate. All polls showed that more people supported her confirmation than opposed it, but many people did not have an opinion or had not heard enough to say.
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Nov. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 10 10 47 Dec. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 9 9 48 Jan. 2006 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 24 20 12 13 30 Jun. 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 21 22 9 11 35 Jul. 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 25 19 13 17 25 May 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC* 14 17 11 10 47 Jun. 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC/WSJ 11 18 9 14 47 NOTE: *Poll conducted by NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo.
• Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court?
Approve Disapprove May 2009 Quinnipiac 54% 24% May-Jun. 2009 Quinnipiac 55 25 Jul. 2009 Quinnipiac 54 26 Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 52 32
• As you may know, Barack Obama recently nominated Sonia Sotomayor to serve as justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Sonia Sotomayor’s serving on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Support Somewhat Support Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose Don’t Know Jun.2009 NBC 21% 22% 9% 11% 35% Jul. 2009 NBC 25 19 13 17 25
• President Obama has nominated Sonia Sotomayor to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. If you were voting on Sotomayor’s nomination, would you vote to confirm her or not?
Confirm Not Confirm Don’t Know
Jun. 2009 * Fox News 46% 32% 22% Jul. 2009* Fox News 53 29 19 (Demographic breakdowns, June 2009) Democrats 69% 12% 19% Republicans 19 55 27 Independents 46 33 21 (Demographic breakdowns, July 2009) Democrats 72% 9% 19% Republicans 29 54 17 Independents 53 24 23 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups, and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please say so. Sonia Sotomayor. (p all) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Neutral Somewhat Negative Very Negative DK Jun. 2009 NBC 13% 17% 24% 8% 8% 30% Jul. 2009 NBC 16 15 22 14 13 20 May 2010 NBC 11 16 24 7 8 34
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• Is your opinion of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t heard enough about Sonia Sotomayor yet to have an opinion? Haven’t heard Favorable Not favorable Undecided enough Jun. 2009 CBS/NYT 33% 9% 22% 36%
Jul. 2009 CBS 23 15 23 39
• Based on what you have heard so far, do you think that Sonia Sotomayor is qualified or not qualified to be a Supreme Court justice, or do you not know enough about her to say? Qualified Not qualified Don’t know enough
Jun. 2009 NBC/WSJ 50% 13% 35%
• What do you think right now? Should the Senate vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor as a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, or vote against Sotomayor, or can’t you say? Vote to confirm Vote against Can’t say Jun. 2009 CBS/NYT 34% 9% 53% Jul. 2009 CBS 30 14 52
• From what you’ve seen and heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court? Should Should not Don’t know Jun. 2009 Pew 50% 25% 25%
Ideological Leanings
• From what you know about Sonia Sotomayor, do you think she would be too liberal, too conservative, or just about right as Supreme Court justice?
Too liberal Too conservative About right May 2009 Gallup/USA Today 28% 3% 48
• What is your impression of Sonia Sotomayor, do you think she is liberal, moderate, or conservative? Liberal Moderate Conservative Not Sure Jun. 2009 Pew 31% 34% 8% 26%
• Based on what you have heard or read about her, do you think Sonia Sotomayor’s views on important issues are in the mainstream or do you think they are too extreme?
Mainstream Extreme No opinion May 2009 Gallup/USA Today 49% 30% 21%
• As you may have heard, Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor has said several times that a wise female Hispanic judge would make better decisions than a white male judge. Do you think these remarks should disqualify her from serving on the Court or not?
Yes, disqualifies her No, does not Jun. 2009 Fox News 29% 67% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 15% 83% Republicans 44 51
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Independents 30 30 NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Here’s exactly what Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor said in a speech in 2001: “I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experience would more often than not reach a better conclusion than a white male who hasn’t lived that life.” Do you agree with her or not? Yes No Jun. 2009 Fox News 32% 58% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 47% 42% Republicans 18 77 Independents 27 61 NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Would you say that Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor is more liberal than you would like, not liberal enough, or about
right? More Not liberal liberal enough About right May 2009 Quinnipiac 30% 5% 42% May-Jun. 2009 Quinnipiac 30 5 44
• Should Senators support or oppose Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court based only on whether she is qualified to be a justice, or should they also consider her views on controversial issues like abortion and affirmative action?
Only qualifications Consider views May 2009 Quinnipiac 47% 43% May-Jun. 2009 Quinnipiac 46 44
• Suppose the upcoming confirmation hearings indicate that Sonia Sotomayor is qualified and has no ethical problems. Do you think U.S. Senators would be justified or unjustified in voting against her if they disagree with her stance on current issues such as abortion or gun control? Justified Unjustified Jun. 2009 CNN/USA Today/ Gallup 47% 49%
• If Sonia Sotomayor is confirmed to sit on the Supreme Court, do you think she will favor certain groups over others when making her judicial decisions, or do you think she will treat all groups the same under the law? Will favor Will treat the same Depends Jun. 2009 CBS/NYT 18% 55% 2% Jul. 2009 CBS 21 60 2
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• As you may know, _____________ is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Alito serving on the Supreme Court, or not?
Yes No No Opinion Aug.- Sep. 1987 (Bork) # Gallup 31% 25% 44% Sep. 1987 (Bork)# Gallup 38 35 26 Jul. 1991 (Thomas) * Gallup 52 17 31 Jun. 1993 (Ginsburg) ^ Gallup 53 14 33 Jul. 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 59 22 19 Aug. 5-7, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 51 28 21 Aug. 28-30, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 52 26 22 Sep. 8-11, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 58 27 15 Sep. 16-18, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 60 26 14 Oct. 13-16, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 44 36 20 Oct. 21-23, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 42 43 15 Nov. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 50 25 25 Dec. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 49 29 22 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 49 30 21 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 54 30 16 May 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 54 28 19 Jun. 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/Gallup/USA Today 47 40 13 Jul. 10-12, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 53 33 13 Jul. 17-19, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 55 36 9 July 31-Aug 2, 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/ORC 51 36 14
Jul.-Aug. 2010 (Kagan)** Gallup 46 36 18 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 44 34 22 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 34 12 Jun. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 44 39 17 May 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 46 32 22 May 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 36 11
NOTE: # Question wording was: “Robert Bork is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Reagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Bork serving on the U.S. Supreme Court, or not?; * Question wording read, “Clarence Thomas is a federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Clarence Thomas serving on the Supreme Court?”; ^ question wording read, “Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Clinton to serve on the United States Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Ginsburg serving on the Supreme Court, or not?” **Question wording read ‘As you may know, Solicitor General Elena Kagan is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Kagan serving on the Supreme Court.
JOHN ROBERTS: Initial reactions to Judge John Roberts were positive as the questions below show, though a substantial number didn’t have an opinion. All the questions from major pollsters that were asked about whether he should be confirmed showed more people in favor of his confirmation than opposed.
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• As you may know, ___________ recently nominated ____________ to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose ________ serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly support support oppose oppose DK Sep. 2005 (John Roberts) NBC/WSJ 22% 16% 10% 10% 41% Oct. 2005 (Harriet Miers) NBC/WSJ 11 16 10 11 51 Nov. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 10 10 47 Dec. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 9 9 48 Jan. 2006 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 24 20 12 13 30 Jun. 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 21 22 9 11 35 Jul. 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 25 19 13 17 25 May 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC* 14 17 11 10 47 Jun. 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC/WSJ 11 18 9 14 47 NOTE: *Poll conducted by NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo.
Should Roberts Be Confirmed
• On a different subject for a moment, from what you’ve heard or read, do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm John Roberts as the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court?
Should Should not Don’t know Sep. 2005 (Early) Pew 35% 19% 46% Sep. 2005 (Mid) Pew 46 21 33
• What do you think right now? Should the Senate vote to confirm John Roberts as Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, or vote against Roberts, or can’t you say?
Vote to confirm Vote against Can’t say Aug. 2005 CBS 26% 9% 60% Sep. 2005 CBS 35 10 49 Sep. 2005 CBS/NYT 26 8 63
Jul. 2009 Pew 50 23 27
• Based on what you’ve heard or read about John Roberts, do you think he should or should not be confirmed by the Senate to serve as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court?
Should Should not Don’t know Sep. 2005 SRBI/Time 48% 26% 26%
• On another subject...Based on what you’ve heard or read about John Roberts, President Bush’s nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court, do you think he should or should not be confirmed by the Senate to serve on the Court?
Should Should not No opinion Aug. 2005 PSRA/Newsweek 47% 24% 29% Sep. 2005 PSRA/Newsweek 44 24 32
• Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Roberts’ nomination to the Supreme Court? Should Should not No opinion Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 59% 23% 17% Aug. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 57 22 20 Sep. 2005* ABC/Wash Post 55 26 19
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NOTE: * Question wording read, “As you may know, Bush has nominated federal judge John Roberts to be Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Roberts’ nomination as Chief Justice?”
• President Bush has nominated John Roberts to replace sitting Justice Sandra Day O’Connor on the U.S. Supreme Court. If you
were voting on John Roberts nomination, would you vote to confirm him or not? Yes No Don’t know Jul. 2005* Fox News 51% 19% 30% Aug. 2005* Fox News 50 26 24 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• As you may know, President Bush recently nominated John Roberts to serve as the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose John Roberts serving as the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, or don’t you know enough about him to say?
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don’t support support oppose oppose know Sep. 2005 NBC/WSJ 22% 16% 10% 10% 41%
Will Roberts Be Confirmed
• What do you expect will happen – do you think John Roberts probably will or probably will not be confirmed by the Senate to sit on the Supreme Court?
Probably will Probably will not Jul.-Aug. 2005 CBS 73% 8% Aug. 2005 CBS 71 7
• Do you think the Senate will confirm John Roberts or not?
Will Will not Jul. 2005* Fox News 70% 7% Sep. 2005* Fox News 75 6 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
Impressions of Roberts
• How would describe your first impressions of him (John Roberts)? Would you say they are very positive, somewhat positive, neither positive nor negative, somewhat negative, or very negative?
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very positive positive Neither negative negative Jul. 2005 Gallup 26% 28% 21% 8% 7%
• Next, we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people – or if you have never heard of them. How about . . . U.S. Supreme Court nominee, John Roberts?
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Jul. 2005 Gallup 46% 13% 19% Sep. 2005 Gallup 50 17 14
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• Is your opinion of Supreme Court nominee John Roberts favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough
about John Roberts yet to have an opinion? Not heard
Favorable Unfavorable Undecided enough Jul.-Aug. 2005 CBS 25% 7% 17% 51% Aug. 2005 CBS 22 8 24 45 Sep. 2005 CBS/NYT 25 8 20 46
• Generally speaking, how would you rate Bush’s choice of John Roberts as a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court – as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
Excellent Good Only fair Poor Jul. 2005 Gallup 25% 26% 20% 14%
• Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s nomination of John Roberts to the Supreme Court? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 44% 27% 29%
• President George W. Bush has nominated John Roberts to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O’Connor on the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you approve or disapprove of John Roberts’ nomination to the Supreme Court?
Approve Disapprove Don’t know Jul. 2005* Fox News 48% 17% 34% Sep. 2005* Fox News 51 21 27 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Overall, do you think John Roberts is qualified to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court, or not? Qualified Not qualified Don’t know Jul. 2005* Fox News 65% 10% 25% Sep. 2005* Fox News 62 14 24 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Would you say that the more you hear about Roberts the more you like him or the more you hear about Roberts the less you like him?
More you Less you like him like him No difference Aug. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 39% 28% 16%
Ideological Leanings
• Is John Roberts more conservative than you would like, not conservative enough, or about right, or don’t you know enough about John Roberts yet to say?
More About Not conservative Don’t conservative right enough know Sep. 2005 CBS/NYT 14% 22% 2% 61%
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• From what you’ve heard or read, are you concerned that John Roberts is too conservative, too liberal, or aren’t you concerned about his ideology?
Too Too Not Don’t conservative liberal concerned know Sep. 2005 Pew 20% 5% 39% 36%
• From what you know about John Roberts, as a Supreme Court Justice, do you think he would be too liberal, too conservative, or just about right?
Too About Too No conservative right liberal opinion Aug. 2005 Gallup 24% 48% 8% 20%
• Would you say that Supreme Court nominee John Roberts is more conservative than you would like, not conservative enough, or about right?
More About Not conservative Don’t conservative right enough know Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 29% 41% 8% 21%
• From what you know about John Roberts, would you say he is more of liberal or a conservative? Liberal Conservative Moderate Don’t know Jul. 2005 Fox News 8% 56% 8% 28% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
Roberts and the Issue of Abortion
• Do you think it would be appropriate or inappropriate for senators to ask Roberts general questions about his overall views on the abortion issue?
Appropriate Inappropriate Jul. 2005 Gallup 74% 22%
• Do you think it would be appropriate or inappropriate for senators to ask Roberts specific questions about how he would rule on individual cases involving the abortion issue?
Appropriate Inappropriate Jul. 2005 Gallup 61% 36%
• When the U.S. Senate holds hearings on the John Roberts nomination, do you think Senators should insist he explain his views on abortion before confirming, or should he be allowed to refuse to answer questions about abortion?
Insist he explain Allowed to refuse his views to answer Jul. 2005 Gallup 61% 37%
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• Over the past twenty years, nominees for the U.S. Supreme Court have refused to discuss their views on specific issues, such as whether a woman has the constitutional right to be able to have an abortion, during their confirmation hearings in the U.S. Senate. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your view about whether a Supreme Court nominee should publicly state his or her position on critical issues before the Court. A nominee should be required to state his or her positions on these issues so that senators have this information to decide whether to confirm this person for life or a nominee should not be required to state his or her positions on these issues as judges should be selected based on their experience and overall qualifications, not their positions on issues that may come before the Court later.
------Supreme Court nominee should state publicly position on issues like abortion----- Required Not required Jul. 2005 NBC/WSJ 43% 53% Sep. 2005 NBC/WSJ 36 57
• Do you think Supreme Court nominee John Roberts should or should not publicly state his position on abortion? Should publicly Should not publicly state view state view Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 61% 32%
• Do you think Roberts should or should not publicly state his position on abortion before being approved by the U.S. Senate for the job?
------Publicly state his or her position on abortion before being approved--- Should Should not Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 64% 34%
• Do you think United States Senators would be justified or not justified in voting against Supreme Court nominee John Roberts if he refuses to state his position on abortion?
Justified Not justified Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 43% 47%
• Before Senators vote on whether John Roberts should sit on the Supreme Court, how important do you think it is for the Senate to know what his position on abortion is – is that very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important?
Very Somewhat Not very Not at all important important important important Jul.-Aug. 2005 CBS 30% 35% 13% 19%
Past Cases
• At his confirmation hearing, do you think Roberts should or should not answer questions about how he would have ruled on past cases that have come before the Supreme Court?
Should Should not Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 61% 36% Aug. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 52 42
• In previous Senate confirmation hearings, some nominees have refused to answer questions related to past Supreme Court cases or cases that may come before the Court in the future. Do you think it is acceptable or unacceptable for John Roberts to decline to answer questions on past or future cases before the Supreme Court?
Acceptable Unacceptable Jul. 2005 Fox News 41% 43% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
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Miscellany
• Do you think a senator who believes Roberts has the right background and qualifications, but who disagrees with his judicial philosophy and legal views, should vote for or against Robert’s nomination?
Vote for Vote against Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 53% 41% Aug. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 49 37
• Should Senators support or oppose John Roberts’ nomination to the Supreme Court based only on whether he is qualified to be a justice, or should they also consider his views on controversial issues like abortion and the death penalty?
Qualifications Views on issues Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 36% 56%
• Do you think John Roberts’ religious beliefs should or should not be something Senators consider when deciding whether to confirm him?
Should Should not Aug. 2005 Fox News 22% 61% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• John Roberts is a practicing Catholic. Knowing this, are you more likely, or less likely to support his confirmation?
More likely Less likely No difference Aug. 2005 Fox News 21% 13% 57% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Should Senators support or oppose John Roberts’ nomination to the Supreme Court based only on whether he is qualified to be a justice, or should they also consider his views on controversial issues like abortion and the death penalty?
Qualifications Views on issues Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 36% 56%
• As you may know, Roberts was nominated to replace Sandra Day O’Connor. Does it bother you that President Bush did not nominate a woman to replace Sandra Day O’Connor, or does it not bother you?
Yes, bother you No, does not Jul. 2005 Gallup 21% 77%
• Would you have preferred George W. Bush nominate a woman to replace Sandra Day O’Connor on the Supreme Court, or does it not matter to you?
Preferred woman Does not matter Jul.-Aug. 2005 CBS 25% 75%
• So far, have you heard anything about John Roberts that you think disqualifies him from serving on the Supreme Court? Yes No Don’t know Jul. 2005 Fox News 9% 83% 8% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
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• How much does it matter to you whether or not John Roberts is confirmed by the Senate – a great deal, a moderate amount, not much, or not at all?
Great Moderate deal amount Not much Not at all Jul. 2005 Gallup 37% 20% 18% 13%
Continued Performance
• Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Roberts is handling his job as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 49% 21% 30% Jul.-Aug. 2010 Gallup/USA Today 48 27 25 (Demographic breakdowns, April 2000) Republican 52% 18% 30% Independent 50 21 29 Democrat 47 27 26 Conservative 56 19 25 Moderate 50 19 30 Liberal 38 33 29 (Demographic breakdowns, Jul.-Aug. 2010) Republican 51% 21% 27% Independent 50 27 21 Democrat 45 33 21 Conservative 53 23 24 Moderate 47 25 26 Liberal 39 40 20 Male 52 27 20 Female 44 28 27
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven’t you heard enough about him?
Favorable Unfavorable Mixed Haven’t heard enough
Aug. 2007 Quinnipiac 21% 9% 21% 49% Jul. 2008 Quinnipiac 17 7 18 57
• How would you rate the job Chief Justice John Roberts is doing—excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
Pretty Only Not Excellent good fair Poor sure
Mar. 2006 Harris 8% 33% 29% 8% 23% Jun. 2006 Harris 9 32 30 11 18 Sep. 2006 Harris 7 35 30 8 20
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• As you may know, _____________ is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of ______ serving on the Supreme Court, or not?
Yes No No Opinion Aug.- Sep. 1987 (Bork) # Gallup 31% 25% 44% Sep. 1987 (Bork)# Gallup 38 35 26 Jul. 1991 (Thomas) * Gallup 52 17 31 Jun. 1993 (Ginsburg) ^ Gallup 53 14 33 Jul. 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 59 22 19 Aug. 5-7, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 51 28 21 Aug. 28-30, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 52 26 22 Sep. 8-11, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 58 27 15 Sep. 16-18, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 60 26 14 Oct. 13-16, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 44 36 20 Oct. 21-23, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 42 43 15 Nov. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 50 25 25 Dec. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 49 29 22 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 49 30 21 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 54 30 16 May 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 54 28 19 Jun. 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/Gallup/USA Today 47 40 13 Jul. 10-12, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 53 33 13 Jul. 17-19, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 55 36 9 July 31-Aug 2, 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/ORC 51 36 14
Jul.-Aug. 2010 (Kagan)** Gallup 46 36 18 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 44 34 22 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 34 12 Jun. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 44 39 17 May 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 46 32 22 May 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 36 11 NOTE: # Question wording was: “Robert Bork is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Reagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Bork serving on the U.S. Supreme Court, or not?; * Question wording read, “Clarence Thomas is a federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Clarence Thomas serving on the Supreme Court?”; ^ question wording read, “Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Clinton to serve on the United States Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Ginsburg serving on the Supreme Court, or not?” **Question wording read ‘As you may know, Solicitor General Elena Kagan is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Kagan serving on the Supreme Court.
HARRIET MIERS: Americans were less enthusiastic about the Miers’ nomination than they were about John Roberts’. By late October, 42 percent said the Senate should vote in favor of her and 43 percent said it should not. Sixty-six percent told CBS that her Miers being a women made no difference in their support for her nomination. But after Bush withdrew her nomination, 59 percent told Gallup that Bush nominating another women was important to them.
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• As you may know, ___________ recently nominated ____________ to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose ________ serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly support support oppose oppose DK Sep. 2005 (John Roberts) NBC/WSJ 22% 16% 10% 10% 41% Oct. 2005 (Harriet Miers) NBC/WSJ 11 16 10 11 51 Nov. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 10 10 47 Dec. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 9 9 48 Jan. 2006 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 24 20 12 13 30 June 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 21 22 9 11 35 July 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 25 19 13 17 25 May 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC* 14 17 11 10 47 June 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC/WSJ 11 18 9 14 47 NOTE: *Poll conducted by NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo.
• As you may know, President Bush recently nominated Harrier Miers to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you
strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Harriet Miers’ serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly
support support oppose oppose Oct. 2005 NBC/WSJ 11% 16% 10% 11%
• From what you’ve heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court? Should Should not Don’t know Oct. 2005 Pew 33% 27% 40%
• If you were voting on Harriet Miers’ nomination, would you vote to confirm her or not? Yes, confirm No, not confirm Don’t know Oct. 2005 * Fox News 37% 32% 31% Oct. 2005 * Fox News 35 38 27 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
Impressions of Miers
• Generally speaking, how would you rate Bush’s choice of Harriet Miers to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court – as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
Excellent Good Only fair Poor Oct. 2005 Gallup 11% 33% 25% 16%
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers favorable, unfavorable, undecided or haven’t you heard enough about Harriet Miers yet to have an opinion?
Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven’t heard enough Oct. 2005 CBS News 11% 11% 18% 59%
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• Next, we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people – or if you have never heard of them. How about – U.S. Supreme Court nominee, Harriet Miers?
Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard Oct. 2005 Gallup 31% 26% 17%
• How would describe your first impressions of her (Harriet Miers)? Would you say they are very positive, somewhat positive, neither positive nor negative, somewhat negative, or very negative?
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very positive positive Neither negative negative Oct. 2004 Gallup 14% 28% 34% 10% 4%
Miers and the Issue of Abortion
• When the U.S. Senate holds hearings on the Harriet Miers nomination, do you think Senators should insist that she explain her views on abortion before confirming her, or should she be allowed to refuse to answer questions about abortion?
Insist she explain Allowed to refuse her views to answer Oct. 2005 Gallup 55% 42%
Will Miers Be Confirmed
• Do you think the Senate will confirm Harriet Miers or not?
Yes No Don’t know Oct. 2005 Fox News 48% 19% 33% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Which group do you think is causing President Bush the most trouble over the Supreme Court nomination of Harriet Miers - liberal Democrats or conservative Republicans?
Liberal Conservative Democrats Republicans Both Neither Oct. 2005 Fox News 30% 26% 22% 3% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Which one of the following do you think is most likely to happen? Do you think Harriet Miers will be confirmed by the Senate, be voted down by the Senate, or withdraw her name from consideration before a Senate vote?
Confirmed Voted down Withdraw Oct. 2005 Fox News 37% 17% 21% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
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Ideological Leanings
• From what you know about Harriet Miers, would you say she is more of a liberal or a conservative? Liberal Conservative Don’t know Oct. 2005 Fox News 6% 47% 39% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Do you worry that Harriet Miers would make the Supreme Court too conservative, not conservative enough, or do you not worry about this?
Too Not conservative conservative enough Don’t worry Don’t know Oct. 2005 Pew 18% 8% 56% 18% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
Miers’s Qualifications
• Based on what you have heard so far, do you think that Harriet Miers is qualified or not qualified to be a Supreme Court Justice, or do you not know enough about her to say?
Qualified Not qualified Don’t know Oct. 2005 NBC/WSJ 29% 24% 46%
• Overall, do you think Harriet Miers is qualified to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court or not? Qualified Not qualified Don’t know Oct. 2005 Fox News 37% 28% 35% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• I’m going to read several things about Harriet Miers. For each one, please tell me whether this makes you feel more positive about Harriet Miers sitting on the Supreme Court, less positive, or does it make no difference to you either way?
Oct. 2005 NBC/WSJ More positive Less positive No difference She was the first woman to be the president of the Texas Bar Association 47% 10% 42% She has been named one of America’s one hundred most powerful lawyers 45 14 39 She had worker for President Bush as his personal lawyer for many years, previously while he was governor of Texas, and most recently as White House Counsel 24 40 35 She has not previously served as a judge 8 50 40 Her positions on many legal issues facing the court are unknown. 8 52 37
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• Thinking about Harriet Miers’ background, does each of the following make you - more likely to support her nomination, does it make no difference, or does it make you less likely to support her nomination? How about . . . ?
Oct. 2005 Gallup/USA Today More likely No difference Less likely She is a woman 29% 66% 5% She has close personal ties to George W. Bush 16 38 44 Her views on most major issues are no known 12 33 49 She have never served as a judge 10 42 46
• So far, have you heard anything about Harriet Miers that you think disqualifies her from serving on the Supreme Court? Yes No Don’t know Oct. 2005 Fox News 13% 77% 10% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
Miers’s Withdrawal
• Would you like to see President Bush continue to support his nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court or withdraw his nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court?
Continue support Withdraw nomination No opinion Oct. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 46% 36% 18%
• Would you say you are pleased or disappointed that Harriet Miers’ nomination was withdrawn? Pleased Disappointed No opinion Oct. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 42% 35% 23%
(Asked of only those who said they were pleased her nomination was withdrawn) If you had to choose among the following, which would you say is the most important reason why you are pleased that Harriet Miers’ nomination was withdrawn - her views are too conservative, her views are not conservative enough, she does not have strong enough qualifications to serve on the Supreme Court, or she is too close to George W. Bush personally?
Too Not conservative Not Too conservative enough qualified close bush Oct. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 8% 4% 49% 35%
• Now that George W. Bush has withdrawn his nomination of Harriet Miers, how important is it to you that he nominates another woman to replace Sandra Day O’Connor on the Supreme Court - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
Very Somewhat Not too Not at all important important important important Oct. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 30% 29% 14% 25%
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• As you may know, _____________ is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of ________ serving on the Supreme Court, or not?
Yes No No Opinion Aug.- Sep. 1987 (Bork) # Gallup 31% 25% 44% Sep. 1987 (Bork)# Gallup 38 35 26 Jul. 1991 (Thomas) * Gallup 52 17 31 Jun. 1993 (Ginsburg) ^ Gallup 53 14 33 Jul. 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 59 22 19 Aug. 5-7, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 51 28 21 Aug. 28-30, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 52 26 22 Sep. 8-11, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 58 27 15 Sep. 16-18, 2005 (Roberts) Gallup 60 26 14 Oct. 13-16, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 44 36 20 Oct. 21-23, 2005 (Miers) Gallup 42 43 15 Nov. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 50 25 25 Dec. 2005 (Alito) Gallup 49 29 22 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 49 30 21 Jan. 2006 (Alito) Gallup 54 30 16 May 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 54 28 19 Jun. 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/Gallup/USA Today 47 40 13 Jul. 10-12, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 53 33 13 Jul. 17-19, 2009 (Sotomayor) Gallup/USA Today 55 36 9 Jul.-Aug. 2009 (Sotomayor) CNN/ORC 51 36 14
Jul.-Aug. 2010 (Kagan)** Gallup 46 36 18 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 44 34 22 Jul. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 34 12 Jun. 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 44 39 17 May 2010 (Kagan) Gallup/USA Today 46 32 22 May 2010 (Kagan) CNN/ORC 54 36 11
NOTE: # Question wording was: “Robert Bork is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Reagan to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Bork serving on the U.S. Supreme Court, or not?; * Question wording read, “Clarence Thomas is a federal judge nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Clarence Thomas serving on the Supreme Court?”; ^ question wording read, “Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a federal judge who has been nominated by President Clinton to serve on the United States Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Ginsburg serving on the Supreme Court, or not?” **Question wording read ‘As you may know, Solicitor General Elena Kagan is the person nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Kagan serving on the Supreme Court.
• As you may know, ___________ recently nominated ____________ to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you
strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose ________ serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say? Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly support support oppose oppose DK Sep. 2005 (John Roberts) NBC/WSJ 22% 16% 10% 10% 41%
SAMUEL ALITO: Initial reactions to Judge Samuel Alito were more positive than initial reactions to Harriet Miers. All polls we saw showed that more people supported his confirmation than opposed it, but many people did not have an opinion or hadn’t heard enough to say. In two question, one by Gallup/CNN/USA Today and the other by NBC/Wall Street Journal, about a quarter said that it bothered them that Bush did not nominate a woman.
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Oct. 2005 (Harriet Miers) NBC/WSJ 11 16 10 11 51 Nov. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 10 10 47 Dec. 2005 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 16 16 9 9 48 Jan. 2006 (Sam Alito) NBC/WSJ 24 20 12 13 30 Jun. 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 21 22 9 11 35 July 2009 (Sonia Sotomayor) NBC/WSJ 25 19 13 17 25 May 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC* 14 17 11 10 47 Jun. 2010 (Elena Kagan) NBC/WSJ 11 18 9 14 47 NOTE: *Poll conducted by NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo.
• President Bush has nominated Samuel Alito to be an associate justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you believe he should be
confirmed by the Senate?
Should confirm Should not Not sure Dec. 2005 Harris 34% 31% 34%
• As you may know, President Bush recently nominated Sam Alito to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Sam Alito’s serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you no know enough to say?
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don’t know support support oppose Oppose enough Nov. 2005 NBC/WSJ 16% 16% 10% 10% 47% Dec. 2005 NBC/WSJ 16 16 9 9 48
• Do you think the U.S. Senate should vote to confirm Samuel Alito as a Supreme Court Justice? Do you feel strongly or not strongly about that?
------------------Confirm---------------- ---------------Not confirm-------------- Strongly Not strongly Strongly Not strongly Oct.-Nov. 2005 AP/Ipsos 38% 22% 16% 13%
• What do you think right now? Should the Senate vote to confirm Samuel Alito as a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, or vote against Alito, or can’t you say?
Vote to confirm Vote against Can’t say Oct. 2005 CBS/NYT 15% 7% 75% Jan. 2006 CBS/NYT 17 9 70 Jan. 2006 CBS/NYT 33 18 46
• From what you’re heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Alito to the Supreme Court? Should confirm Should not Don’t know Nov. 2005 Pew 40% 23% 37% Dec. 2005 Pew 32 19 49 Jan. 4-8, 2006 Pew 33 19 48
• On another subject, as you may know, Bush has nominated federal judge Samuel A. Alito to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Alito’s nomination to the Supreme Court?
Should confirm Should not Don’t know Oct.-Nov. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 49% 29% 22% Dec. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 54 28 19 Jan. 2006 ABC/Wash Post 53 27 20
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• If you were voting on Samuel Alito’s nomination, would you vote to confirm him or not?
Yes, confirm No Don’t know Nov. 2005* Fox News 46% 29% 25% Dec. 2005* Fox News 35 27 38 Jan. 2006 * Fox News 45 30 25 Jan. 2006 * Fox News 47 32 21 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters
Impressions of Alito
• Generally speaking, how would you rate Bush’s choice of Samuel Alito as a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court - excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
Excellent Good Only fair Poor Nov. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 17% 26% 22% 17%
• As you may know, Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor is retiring, and President Bush has nominated Samuel Alito to replace her. Is your opinion of Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about Samuel Alito yet to have an opinion?
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Oct.-Nov. 2005 AP/Ipsos 20% 14% 64%
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough about Samuel Alito yet to have an opinion?
Haven’t heard Favorable Unfavorable Undecided enough Oct.-Nov. 2005 CBS 11% 7% 16% 65% Dec. 2005 CBS/NYT 14 10 18 57 Jan. 2006 CBS/NYT 16 7 18 59
• Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush’s nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court? Approve Disapprove Nov. -Dec. 2005 Quinnipiac 41% 27%
• Now I am going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, just say so . . . Samuel Alito?
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don’t positive positive Neutral negative negative know Nov. 2005 NBC/WSJ 9% 10% 18% 6% 6% 51% Dec. 2005 NBC/WSJ 10 9 21 8 6 46
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Ideological Leanings
• Based on what you have heard or read about him, do you think Alito’s views on important issues are in the mainstream or do you think they are too extreme?
Mainstream Too extreme No opinion Nov. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 51% 26% 23%
• Do you worry that Samuel Alito would make the Supreme Court too conservative, not conservative enough, or don’t you worry about this? Too Not conservative Don’t
conservative enough worry Nov. 2005 Pew 25% 6% 56% Dec. 2005 Pew 21 6 53
• Given what you know, do you think Alito is a more conservative nominee than you’d have liked, less conservative than you’d have liked, or about right?
More conservative About right Less conservative Oct.-Nov. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 29% 44% 10%
• Would you say that Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito is more conservative than you would like, not conservative enough, or about right? More Not conservative About
conservative enough right Nov.-Dec. 2005 Quinnipiac 26% 8% 39%
• From what you know about Samuel Alito, would you say he is more of a liberal or a conservative? More liberal More conservative Don’t know Dec. 2005 Fox News 7% 46% 39% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• From what you know about Samuel Alito, as a Supreme Court Justice, do you think he would be too liberal, too conservative, or just about right?
Too Too liberal conservative About right No opinion Jan. 2006 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 6% 29% 49% 15%
Alito’s Qualifications
• Based on what you have heard so far, do you think that Sam Alito is qualified or not qualified to be a Supreme Court Justice, or do you not know enough about him to say?
Qualified Not qualified Don’t know/Not sure Nov. 2005 NBC/WSJ 51% 6% 43%
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Alito and Gender
• As you may know, Alito was nominated to replace Sandra Day O’Connor. Does it bother you that President Bush did not nominate a woman to replace O’Connor, or does it not bother you?
Yes, bothers you No, does not Nov. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 23% 75%
• Does the fact that President Bush did not nominate another woman to serve on the Supreme Court bother you or not bother you?
Bothers Does not bother Nov. 2005 NBC/WSJ 25% 74%
Alito and the Issue of Abortion
• If you were convinced that Alito would vote to overturn the Roe V. Wade decision, would you, personally, want the Senate vote to confirm him to the Supreme Court, or not?
Yes, confirm No, not Nov. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 37% 53%
• Do you worry that Samuel Alito would go too far in restricting access to abortions, not go far enough, or don’t you worry about this?
Go too far Not far enough Don’t worry Nov. 2005 Pew 25% 12% 47%
• The Supreme Court legalized abortion 32 years ago in the ruling known as Roe versus Wade. If that case came before the court again, would you want Alito to vote to uphold Roe versus Wade, or vote to overturn it?
Uphold Overturn Oct.-Nov. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 64% 31%
• Alito wrote a legal opinion saying a state can require a woman to notify her husband if she decides to have an abortion. Does knowing this make you more likely to support, more likely to oppose or doesn’t it make much difference in your opinion?
Support Oppose No difference Oct.-Nov. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 27% 26% 46%
• Do you think Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito should or should not publicly state his position on abortion? Yes, should No, should not Nov.-Dec. 2005 Quinnipiac 55% 35%
• Do you think United States Senators would be justified, or not justified in voting against Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito if he refuses to state his position on abortion?
Justified Not justified Nov. -Dec. 2005 Quinnipiac 42% 47%
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• If you thought that Judge Alito, if confirmed, would vote to make abortions illegal, would you favor or oppose his confirmation?
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly favor favor oppose oppose Dec. 2005 Harris Interactive 16% 15% 20% 49%
• Suppose that after his confirmation hearings you were convinced that Samuel Alito would vote to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion. If that were the case, would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of Alito serving on the Supreme court, or not?
Yes, vote in favor No, not No opinion Jan. 2006 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 34% 56% 11%
• Some people say that the Supreme Court should stick as closely as possible to the founding fathers’ interpretation of the U.S. Constitution. Other say the Supreme Court should make decisions based on a modern interpretation of what the Constitution means. Which of these positions comes closer to your own?
Founding fathers’ Modern interpretation interpretation Sep. 1987 ABC/Wash Post 42% 55%
• Which comes closer to your point of view: A) In making decisions, the Supreme Court should only consider the original intentions of the authors of the constitution or B) In making decisions, the Supreme Court should consider changing times and current realities in applying the principles of the constitution?
Authors’ Current intentions realities Apr. 2003 Quinnipiac 39% 54% May 2005 Quinnipiac 42 51 Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 44 50 Aug. 2007 Quinnipiac 43 48 Jul. 2008 Quinnipiac 40 52 Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 49 42
• Do you think the next person nominated to join the United States Supreme Court should be someone who tries to follow the
original intent of the U.S. Constitution as it was written, or someone who tries to follow an interpretation of what the Constitution means in current times? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
Original intent Original intent Interpretation Interpretation strongly somewhat somewhat strongly Jun. 2003 ABC 41% 18% 24% 10%
ORIGINAL INTENT: The questions below show how the wording of questions can pull people in one direction or another. In April 2010, Quinnipiac asked a national sample whether in making decisions, the Court should only consider the original intentions of the authors of the Constitution (49 percent) or whether in making decisions the Court should consider changing times and current realities (42 percent). A Time question from 2011 shows that 41 percent favored an approach on only what is spelled out and 54 percent wanted to interpret the Constitution based on changes in society.
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• Please tell me which of the following statements comes closer to your point of view. President Bush should appoint a judge to the Supreme Court who will give greater consideration to the original intentions of the authors of the Constitution when making a decision or President Bush should appoint a judge to the Supreme Court who will give greater consideration to changing times and current realities in applying the principles of the Constitution.
Authors’ Current intentions realities Jul. 2005 NBC/WSJ 45% 47%
• Do you think the U.S. Supreme Court should base its rulings on its understanding of what the U.S. Constitution meant as it was
originally written, or should the court base its rulings on its understanding of what the U.S. Constitution means in current times?
Originally Current written times Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 46% 50%
• Which of the following comes closest to your view of how the Constitution should be interpreted by the U.S. Supreme Court: Judges should base their rulings on what they believe the Constitution’s framers meant when it was originally written or judges should base their rulings on what they believe the Constitution means in today’s world.
Originally Today’s written world Aug. 2005 Fox News 47% 36% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• How do you think the Supreme Court should interpret the Constitution? No matter what the outcome, the Court should follow what the Framers meant when they wrote the Constitution, if necessary, the Court should ignore what the Framers meant to reach the outcome it feels appropriate for today.
What framers What’s appropriate meant for today May 2009 Fox News 60% 26% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Some people say that the courts should strictly follow the original intent of the Founding Fathers . . . That the federal government should be permitted to do only what’s exactly spelled out in the Constitution or was the intent of the Framers of the Constitution. Others say times have changed and that the Court should interpret the Constitution based upon changes in society, technology, and the U.S. role in the world. Which comes closest to your view if you had to choose – only what’s exactly spelled out in the Constitution or interpretations based on changes in society?
Only exactly what’s spelled out Interpret Constitution
Jun. 2011 Time 41% 54%
• Which comes closest to your view; judges should interpret the laws as narrowly as possible, taking into account only what is clearly the intention of the lawmakers, or judges should interpret laws broadly, taking into account the broader interests of the nation.
Narrow interpretation Broad interpretation Sep. 2009 AP/Roper 43% 52% Aug. 2010 AP/Roper 41 56 Aug. 2011 AP/Roper 36 60
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William Rehnquist
• Who is the current Chief Justice of the United States: William Rehnquist, Warren Burger, Earl Warren or William Brennan, Jr.? Oct.-Nov. 1986 Hearst Corporation William Rehnquist 43% Warren Burger 29 Earl Warren 7 William Brennan Jr. 4 DK 16
• Please tell me, if you know, who is the Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court? Rehnquist Wrong/Don’t know Jun. 1989 Wash Post 9% 91% Nov.-Dec. 1995* Kaiser/Wash Post/Harvard 6 94 NOTE: *Question wording was, “Can you tell me the name of the current Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court?”.
• Please tell me, if you know, the name of the judge on the People’s Court television show? Wapner Wrong/Don’t know Jun. 1989 Wash Post 54% 46%
WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT INDIVIDUAL JUSTICES: Many Americans know little about the individual justices on the Supreme Court. In the questions, substantial proportions say that they “haven’t heard enough” about individual justices to have an opinion or they simply answer “don’t know.” In a May 2005, Quinnipiac poll, for example, 65 percent said they hadn’t heard enough about Antonin Scalia to know whether he would make a good Chief Justice. In June of 1989, after Rehnquist had served on the court for 17 years, only nine percent in a Washington Post poll could identify him as the Chief Justice of the Court. In the same poll, 54 percent knew the name of the judge on television’s People Court (Judge Wapner). Confirmation battles such as that of Clarence Thomas raise awareness for a short time, but as the event recedes, so does familiarity. In Gallup’s question, Thomas’s favorable and unfavorable ratings have gone down since his confirmation. Between July 1 and October 13, 1991 in all 29 questions from major pollsters that asked whether Thomas should be confirmed, support for confirmation outweighed opposition. (These questions are available from the authors.)
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• The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is William Rehnquist. Can you tell me if he is generally considered a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? Liberal Moderate Conservative Don’t know May 1989 Pew 11% 9% 30% 52%
• We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him. How about Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist?
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion Jan. 1999 Gallup 51% 8% 18% 23% Dec. 2000 Gallup 50 15 19 16 Nov. 2004 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 53 20 13 14 May 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 46 16 21 17
• Do you happen to know the name of _________? And what is that person’s name? Feb. 2004 Hart/C-SPAN Correct The Vice President of the United States 77% The Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court 22 The Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate 17 NOTE: Asked of cable viewers.
• I’m going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. William Rehnquist . . . ?
Favorable Unfavorable Can’t say Never heard of Jan. 2005* Fox News 31% 17% 30% 22% Jun. 2005* Fox News 30 16 29 24 Jul. 2005* Fox News 35 16 29 20 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Now I am going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don’t know the name, please just say so . . . William Rehnquist?
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don’t positive positive Neutral negative negative know Jan. 1999 NBC/WSJ 13% 15% 28% 5% 2% 37% Jan. 2001 NBC/WSJ 7 17 29 8 5 34 Jul. 2005 NBC/WSJ 9 18 26 9 5 33
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven’t you heard enough about him?
Haven’t heard Favorable Unfavorable Mixed enough May 2005 Quinnipiac 19% 10% 23% 45%
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Clarence Thomas
• We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him. How about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas?
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Oct. 1991* Gallup 57% 30% 8% Oct. 1991* Gallup 62 26 9 May 1992 Gallup 44 31 6 Jul. 1995 Gallup 39 38 8 Dec. 2000 Gallup 46 33 8 May 2005 Gallup 44 23 17
NOTE: *Question wording was, “From what you may have seen, heard or read about the hearings, what is your impression of Clarence Thomas? Is it very favorable, favorable, unfavorable, or very unfavorable?” Results combined.
• Is your opinion of the Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas favorable, not favorable, undecided or haven’t you heard
enough about Clarence Thomas yet to have an opinion?
Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough Sep. 1991 CBS/NYT 26% 10% 42% (Demographic breakdowns) Whites 27% 8% 44% Blacks 20 16 35
• Next, we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. How about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas?
Jul. 1995 Gallup Favorable Unfavorable Blacks 36% 45%
• Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following people...Clarence Thomas? Favorable Unfavorable Oct. 1995 PSRA/Newsweek 35% 29% (Demographic breakdowns) Whites 37% 28% Blacks 25 46
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• Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following people...Clarence Thomas? Oct. 1994 Yankelovich Favorable Unfavorable Blacks 42% 31% Favorable Unfavorable Oct. 1995 Yankelovich 33% 28% (Demographic breakdowns) Whites 33% 27% Blacks 33 42
Antonin Scalia
• We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him. How about Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia?
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Dec. 2000 Gallup 36% 17% 29% May 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 31 13 39
• Thinking about the current members of the Supreme Court, do you think Justice Antonin Scalia would or would not make a good Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, or haven’t you heard enough about him?
Good chief justice Not good Haven’t heard May 2005 Quinnipiac 14% 17% 65%
David Souter
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court nominee David Souter favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough about David Souter yet to have an opinion?
Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Haven’t heard Aug. 1990 CBS/NYT 13% 5% 13% 68%
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court Justice David Souter favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven’t you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Mixed Haven’t heard
Feb. 2003 Quinnipiac 15% 6% 10% 68%
• As I read the following names, please tell me if your opinion of each person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to form an opinion...David Souter?
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Not favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable familiar Jul. 2001 Zogby 5% 22% 9% 6% 56%
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John Roberts
• The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court is John Roberts. Is he generally considered a liberal, moderate, or conservative? Liberal Conservative Moderate Don’t know Feb. 2007 Pew 6% 37% 9% 48% Dec. 2008 Pew 11 53 11 25 Sep.-Oct. 2011 Pew 14 47 19 19
• Do you happen to know who is the chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court? Jul. 2010 Pew John Roberts 28% John Paul Stevens 6 Thurgood Marshall 8 Harry Reid 4 Don’t Know 53
Miscellany
• Please tell me if you know the name of one of the other Justices of the Supreme Court (besides the Chief Justice) Jun. 1989 Washington Post Correct Sandra Day O’Connor 23% Anthony Kennedy 7 Antonin Scalia 6 Thurgood Marshall 5 Harry Blackmun 4 William Brennan, Jr. 3 Byron R. White 3 John Paul Stevens 3 Any other name 3 Don’t Know 7 NOTE: Adds to more than 100% due to multiple responses.
• Which one of the current U.S. Supreme Court Justices do you most admire or agree with?
Nov. 2004* Fox News Admire Sandra Day O’Connor 13% Clarence Thomas 8 William H. Rehnquist 6 Antonin Scalia 5 Ruth Bader Ginsburg 5 Anthony M. Kennedy 1 Stephen G. Breyer 1 David Souter 1 John Paul Stevens 1 Other names 1 Don’t know any names 58
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Jun. 2009 * Fox News Admire Sandra Day O’Connor 11% Clarence Thomas 11 John Roberts 8 Antonin Scalia 5 Ruth Bader Ginsburg 9 Anthony M. Kennedy 3 Stephen G. Breyer 1 David Souter 1 John Paul Stevens 1 Samuel Alito 1 Other names/Don’t know any names 50 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Is your opinion of Supreme Court Justice __________favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven’t you heard enough to say? Apr. 2003 Quinnipiac Favorable Unfavorable Mixed Haven’t heard Sandra Day O’Connor 35% 7% 14% 43% William Rehnquist 30 9 14 46 Clarence Thomas 30 16 14 39 Ruth Bader Ginsburg 21 9 11 58 Antonin Scalia 19 8 10 62 Anthony Kennedy 15 6 11 67 David Souter 15 6 10 68 John Paul Stevens 12 3 9 74 Stephen Breyer 11 4 9 75
• How important do you think it is that George W. Bush nominate a woman to the Supreme Court? Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
Very Somewhat Not too Not at all Important important important important
Feb.-Mar. 2003 Quinnipiac 26% 29% 14% 29% (Demographic breakdowns) Men 20% 29% 16% 33% Women 32 29 12 25
GENDER, RACE, AND ETHNICITY AND COURT NOMINEES: Only small numbers of people say it is essential for a president to nominate a woman, black, or Hispanic to the high court. However, the polls also suggest that Americans would “welcome” a woman, black or Hispanic on the Court.
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• How important do you think it is that George W. Bush nominate a black to the Supreme Court? Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
Very Somewhat Not too Not at all Important important important important
Feb.-Mar. 2003 Quinnipiac 24% 31% 15% 29%
(Demographic breakdowns) White 18% 31% 15% 33% Black 53 28 8 11 Hispanic 34 30 16 20
• How important do you think it is that George W. Bush nominate a Hispanic to the Supreme Court? Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? Very Somewhat Not too Not at all Important important important important
Feb.-Mar. 2003 Quinnipiac 23% 29% 16% 29% (Demographic breakdowns) White 16% 30% 17% 34% Black 43 32 13 12 Hispanic 54 21 11 13
• As you may know, when Sandra Day O’Connor steps down from the Supreme Court it will leave one woman and one member of a racial minority on the Court. Do you think that President Bush should select nominees for the Supreme Court based only on who he thinks would be the best person for the job, or do you think that he should keep balance and diversity on the Court by nominating a woman or a member of a racial minority?
Only select Keep balance best person and diversity Sep. 2005 NBC/WSJ 55% 39%
• President Bush has not yet announced his choice for the Supreme Court’s second vacancy. Do you think Bush should take diversity into account and strongly consider naming another woman to serve on the Court?
Yes, should No, should not Sep. 2005 PSRA/Newsweek 66% 19%
• If you had to choose, and assuming both people were qualified, would you rather the next Supreme Court nominee be a woman or a minority? Women Minority Both the same/neither May 2009 Fox News 35% 13% 47% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• President Bush has not yet announced his choice for the Supreme Court’s second vacancy. Do you think Bush should take
diversity into account and strongly consider naming another black or a Hispanic to serve on the Court? Yes, should No, should not Sep. 2005 PSRA/Newsweek 60% 21%
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• As you may know, Roberts was nominated to replace Sandra Day O’Connor. Does it bother you that President Bush did not nominate a woman to replace O’Connor, or does it not bother you?
Yes, bothers No, does not Jul. 2005 Gallup 21% 77%
• Bush nominated Roberts to replace Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, who is retiring from the court. Are you personally disappointed that Bush did not nominate another woman to replace O’Connor, or not?
Yes, disappointed No, not disappointed Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 34% 65%
• Justice O’Connor was also the first woman on the Supreme Court. Should President Bush nominate another woman to fill this vacancy or does it not matter?
President should Does not nominate a woman matter Jul. 2005 Harris 27% 73%
• Do you think President Bush has an obligation to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor with another woman?
President should Does not nominate a woman matter Jul. 2005 Fox News 28% 65% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• How important do you think it is that George W. Bush nominate a woman to the Supreme Court? Very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?
Very Somewhat Not very Not at all important important important important Jul. 2005 CBS/NYT 25% 33% 17% 23%
• Which of the following best describes your view about the next Supreme Court justice – you think it is essential that the next justice is a woman, you think having a woman as the next justice would be a good idea, but is not essential, it doesn’t matter to you if the next justice is a woman or not, or you think having a woman as the next justice would be a bad idea?
Good idea, but Doesn’t Bad Essential not essential matter idea Sep. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 14% 29% 55% 1% Oct. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 14 33 50 2 May 2009 Gallup/USA Today 6 26 64 3
• Which of the following best describes your view about the next Supreme Court justice – you think it is essential that the next justice is a Hispanic, you think having a Hispanic as the next justice would be a good idea, but is not essential, it doesn’t matter to you if the next justice is a Hispanic or not, or you think having a Hispanic as the next justice would be a bad idea?
Good idea, but Doesn’t Bad Essential not essential matter idea Sep. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 3% 23% 69% 4% May 2009 Gallup/USA Today 1 21 68 8
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• Which of the following best describes your view about the next Supreme Court justice – you think it is essential that the next justice is a Black, do you think having a Black as the next justice would be a good idea, but is not essential, it doesn’t matter to you if the next justice is a Black or not, or you think having a Black as the next justice would be a bad idea?
Good idea, but Doesn’t Bad Essential not essential matter idea Sep. 2005 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 5% 21% 71% 2% May 2009 Gallup/USA Today 1 21 74 3
• Do you think it is acceptable or not acceptable to have a pro-life nominee to the Supreme Court? Acceptable Not acceptable Sep.-Oct. 2003 Winston Group (Rep.) 57% 29%
• For each item I name, please tell me whether to you personally it would be a factor in favor of a Supreme Court nominee or not a factor one way or the other. What if the nominee is . . . ? Apr. 2010 ABC/Wash Post A factor in favor of a SC nomine Against No Difference Protestant 7% 5% 83% Woman 15 3 81 African American 16 3 81 Gay or lesbian 4 25 71 Someone with experience as a judge 70 5 24 Someone with experience outside the legal profession for example in the field of business or politics 35 26 38 NOTE: Those people who said that someone with experience outside the legal profession would be a factor in favor of a nominee were asked which of two kinds of experience would be preferable. Fifty-six percent said someone with experience in business would be, while 36 percent said someone with experience in politics would be.
• Which of the following best describes your view about whether the next Supreme Court justice is ______. Do you think it is
essential that the next justice is a ______, is it a good idea, but not essential, does it not matter to you, or do you think it is a bad idea? May 2010 Gallup/USA Today Good idea, Essential not essential Doesn’t matter Bad idea A woman 4% 20% 72% 3% Hispanic 1 12 76 9 Black 1 13 82 3 Protestant* 7 22 66 3 NOTE: Question wording was “What best describes your view about whether John Paul Stevens’ replacement on the Supreme Court is Protestant?”
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• I’m going to read you a list of characteristics and affiliations and I’d like you to tell me whether or not you would be comfortable with a Supreme Court Justice who has that characteristic or affiliation. Would you be comfortable with a justice who is . . . ? Apr. 2010* Fox News Yes No A Mormon 65% 30% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 62 32 Republicans 68 27 Independents 63 33 A Christian who takes the Bible literally 62% 35% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 54 42 Republicans 74 24 Independents 57 43 A Muslim 43% 53% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 50 45 Republicans 31 66 Independents 53 44 An atheist 39% 58% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 46 52 Republicans 29 69 Independents 47 49 A libertarian 57% 32% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 53 36 Republicans 58 33 Independents 65 23 A socialist 31% 64% (Demographic breakdowns) Democrats 47 47 Republicans 16 81 Independents 27 67 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters.
• Should Senators support or oppose John Roberts’ nomination to the Supreme Court based only on whether he is qualified to be
a justice, or should they also consider his views on controversial issues like abortion and the death penalty?
Qualifications Views on issues Jul. 2005 Quinnipiac 36% 56%
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• Over the past twenty years, nominees for the U.S. Supreme Court have refused to discuss their views on specific issues, such as whether a woman has the constitutional right to be able to have an abortion, during their confirmation hearings in the U.S. Senate. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your view about whether a Supreme Court nominee should publicly state his or her position on critical issues before the Court. A nominee should be required to state his or her positions on these issues so that senators have this information to decide whether to confirm this person for life or a nominee should not be required to state his or her positions on these issues as judges should be selected based on their experience and overall qualifications, not their positions on issues that may come before the Court later.
------Supreme Court nominee should state publicly position on issues like abortion----- Required Not required Jul. 2005 NBC/WSJ 43% 53% Sep. 2005 NBC/WSJ 36 57
• Do you agree or disagree that, as president, George W. Bush should be able to choose a nominee who shares his political philosophy to serve on the Supreme Court?
Agree Disagree Jul. 2005 Fox News 63% 29% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• In general, do you think the current U.S. Supreme Court Justices decide their cases based on legal analysis without regard to their own personal or political views, or do you think they sometimes let their own personal or political views influence their decisions?
Legal analysis Personal political views
May-Jun. 2012 CBS/NYT 13% 76% (Demographic breakdowns) Republicans 12% 75% Democrats 14 76 Independents 12 76
• Some people say that the Supreme Court decides many questions largely on the basis of politics. Do you agree or disagree with this? Agree Disagree Jun. 1946 Gallup 43% 36%
LEGAL ANALYSIS OR PERSONAL VIEWS: WHAT RULES/GUIDES THE JUSTICES: We look below at questions asked during Bush v. Gore and during the during the Court’s hearings on health care about what does and what should guide the justices. Most Americans believe Supreme Court Justices’ decisions are not based on strict legal analysis, but are instead at least partially influenced by personal politics and/or ideological preferences. This belief appears to be stronger regarding the 2010 health care law than it was back in 2000, during the Supreme Court’s decision on the Florida presidential vote.
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• When the President choose a Supreme Court nominee, should he only consider that person’s legal qualifications and background, or along with legal background, should the President also consider how that nominee might vote on major issues the Supreme Court decides?
Legal qualifications How might & background vote on issues Sep. 1987 CBS/NYT 38% 54%
• When a Senate votes on a Supreme Court nominee, should it only consider that person’s legal qualifications and background, or along with legal background, should the Senate also consider how that nominee might vote on major issues the Supreme Court decides?
Legal qualifications How might & background vote on issues Sep. 1987 CBS/NYT 39% 52% Sep. 1991 CBS/NYT 39 49 Jul. 2005 CBS/NYT 45 47 Jul.-Aug. 2005 CBS/NYT 46 46 Sep. 2005 CBS 33 58 Sep. 2005 CBS/NYT 36 54 Sep.-Oct. 2005 CBS 35 54 Jan. 2006 CBS 41 49 Jun. 2009 CBS/NYT 30 62
• When a President chooses a Supreme Court nominee, should the President only consider that person’s legal qualifications and background, or should the President also consider how that nominee might vote on major issues the Supreme Court decides?
Legal qualifications How might & background vote on issues Feb.-Mar. 2003 Quinnipiac 59% 34%
• In deciding whether or not to confirm the President’s nominee to the Supreme Court, should the Senate give greater consideration to the nominee’s qualifications as a judge or to the nominee’s views on these issues facing the Court?
Qualifications Views as judge on issues Both Jul. 2005 NBC/WSJ 49% 38% 10%
• Do you think a senator who believes Roberts has the right background and qualifications, but who disagrees with his judicial philosophy and legal views, should vote for or against Robert’s nomination?
Vote for Vote against Jul. 2005 ABC/Wash Post 53% 41%
• Do you think a Supreme Court judge’s personal views should or should not be a factor in his or her decisions on cases before the court?
Should Should not Jul. 2005 CBS/NYT 19% 77% Jan. 2006 CBS/NYT 25 69
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• Do you think Supreme Court Justices make their decisions based solely on the law, or do you think their political views enter into their decisions?
Legal analysis Political views
Apr. 2010 Quinnipiac 16% 78% (Demographic breakdowns) Republican 13% 82% Democrat 21 72 Independent 13 80 Liberal 17 77 Moderate 18 78 Conservative 13 80
• Do you think the US Supreme Court Justices usually decide their cases based on legal analysis without regard to partisan politics, or do you think they sometimes let their own partisan political views influence their decisions?
Legal analysis Partisan political views
Aug. 2010 AP/NCC/GfK 19% 78%
• In general, do you think the current US Supreme Court Justices decide their cases based on legal analysis without regard to their own ideological views, or do you think they sometimes let their own ideological views influence their decisions?
Legal analysis Ideological views Jan. 2012 Kaiser 17% 75%
• In general, do you think the current US Supreme Court Justices decide their cases based on legal analysis without regard to their own personal or political views, or do you think they sometimes let their own personal or political views influence their decisions?
Legal analysis Personal or political views May-Jun. 2012 CBS/NYT 13% 76% (Demographic breakdowns) Republican 12% 75% Democrat 14 76 Independent 12 76
2010 Health Care Law
• In ruling on the 2010 health care case, do you think the Supreme Court Justices will base their decision on legal analysis without regard to ideology on politics or do you think they will let their own ideological views influence their decision?
Legal analysis Own ideological views Jan. 2012 Kaiser 28% 59%
• When the Supreme Court rules on the case challenging parts of the 2010 health care law, how big of a role do you think national politics will play in their decision?
Major role Minor role No role Feb.-Mar. 2012* Kaiser 50% 35% 10% Apr. 2012 Kaiser 49 32 14 NOTE: *Question asked of a half sample.
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• When the Supreme Court rules on the case challenging parts of the 2010 health care law, how big of a role do you think
national politics should play in their decision? Major role Minor role No role
Feb.-Mar. 2012 Kaiser 26% 29% 41% NOTE: Question asked of a half sample.
• Do you think the decisions that the judges on the Supreme Court make in those cases about the new 2010 health care law will be based mostly on their personal political views or will be based mostly on an objective interpretation of the law?
Objective interp. Political views Mar. 2012 CNN/ORC 46% 50%
(Demographic breakdowns) Male 48% 47% Female 44 52 Republican 52 45 Independent 42 54 Democrat 47 48 Conservative 46 50 Moderate 47 48 Liberal 45 52
• Do you think the Supreme Court Justices will rule on the 2010 health care law mainly on the basis of the law or mainly on the basis of their partisan political views?
Basis of the law Partisan political views
Apr. 2012 ABC/Wash Post 40% 50%
• Do you think the Supreme Court Justices will decide the 2010 health care case solely on the legal arguments and the Constitution or do you think politics and partisanship will play a role in their decision?
Legal arguments Politics and partisanship Apr. 2012 Fox News 26% 67% (Demographic breakdown) Republican 32% 62% Independent 26 65 Democrat 21 72 NOTE: Question asked of registered voters. • Do you think the decision reached by the United States Supreme Court on the constitutionality of some parts of the new 2010
health care law will be based mostly on the law, or based mostly on politics? Mostly on the law Mostly on politics Apr. 2012 NBC/WSJ 32% 59%
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• From what you know of the current United States Supreme Court Justices, how do you think they will rule on the health care law—mainly based on legal analysis or mainly based on their own personal or political views?
Legal analysis Personal political views May-Jun. 2012 CBS/NYT 32% 55% (Demographic breakdown) Republican 33% 48% Independent 30 57 Democrat 35 56
2000 Florida Recount
• Do you think that the five-to-four decision reached by the United States Supreme Court to stop the Florida 2000 presidential election recount is based mostly on the law, or do you think that it is based mostly on politics?
Mostly law Mostly politics Dec. 7-10, 2000 NBC/WSJ 34% 53%
• As you may know, on Saturday December 9, 2000, the United States Supreme Court stopped a manual recount of votes in Florida in the 2000 presidential election contest. Overall, do you think the Justices on the US Supreme Court are being influenced by their personal political views when deciding this case the 2000 Florida election recount, or don’t you think so?
No, not influenced Yes, influenced Dec. 10, 2000 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 42% 51% (Demographic breakdowns) Republican 53% 42% Independent 43 51 Democrat 31 60
• Do you think the Supreme Court’s decision to stop the manual recount of Florida’s 2000 presidential election votes was based more on partisan politics or more on objective interpretation of the law?
Objective interp. Partisan politics Dec. 14-16, 2000 CBS 54% 37%
• Do you believe the Supreme Court acted in a non-partisan way, that is, not favoring either party, when they ruled in a way that meant ballots would not be counted toward the outcome of the election in Florida, or do you believe that the US Supreme Court ruling showed political favoritism?
Non-partisan Favoritism
Dec. 14-16, 2000 LA Times 51% 42%
• Thinking of the decisions made by the courts concerning the Florida election, do you believe that the decisions made by individual judges in the Supreme Court mainly reflect the political views of the judges or mainly reflect their impartial legal judgments?
Impartial judgment Political views Dec. 14-21, 2000 Harris 48% 41%
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• Overall, do you think the Justices on the US Supreme Court were influenced by their personal political views when deciding this case the 2000 presidential election recount in Florida, or don’t you think so?
No, not influenced Yes, influenced
Dec. 15-17, 2000 Gallup/CNN/UST 46% 50% (Demographic breakdown) Republican 65% 32% Independent 46 49 Democrat 30 65
• Do you think politics or partisanship played a major role in their decision, somewhat of a role, or no role at all?
Major role Some role No role at all Dec. 14-15, 2000 PSRA/Newsweek 33% 32% 29% (Demographic breakdown) Republican 12% 36% 45% Independent 31 34 30 Democrat 55 29 11 Male 29 33 34 Female 37 31 24
• Do you think the Justices of the US Supreme Court who voted to end the recount in Florida did so—mostly based on the legal merits of the case or mostly based on their own desire to have Bush as the next president?
Legal merits/law Help Bush
Dec. 13, 2000 Gallup/CNN/USA Today 54% 35% Dec. 14, 2000* ABC/Wash Post 60 35 NOTE: *Question wording was “Do you think the majority in the US Supreme Court that ruled in Bush’s favor did so mainly on the law and evidence in the case, or mainly because it wanted to help Bush become president?”
• What about the minority in the US Supreme Court that ruled in Gore’s favor—do you think it did so mainly on the law and evidence in the case, or mainly because it wanted to help Gore become president?
Law and evidence Help Gore Dec. 14-15, 2000 ABC/Wash Post 60% 29% (Demographic breakdown) Republican 53% 36% Independent 66 26 Democrat 61 27
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• Let me ask you how much trust and confidence you have at this time in the Executive branch, headed by the President...a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, none at all?
------------------Trust & Confidence in Executive Branch--------------------- Great Fair Not very None deal amount much at all May 1972 Gallup 24% 49% 20% 4% Apr. 1974 Gallup 12 28 36 20 Jun. 1976 Gallup 13 45 30 9 May 1997 Gallup 13 49 27 9 Dec. 1998 Gallup 24 39 23 12 Feb. 1999 Gallup 21 43 24 11 Jul. 2000 Gallup 18 47 23 11 Sep. 2001 Gallup 21 42 28 8 Sep. 2002 Gallup 28 44 20 7 Sep. 2003 Gallup 25 35 26 14 Sep. 2004 Gallup 31 27 25 16 Sep. 2005 Gallup 19 33 30 18 Sep. 2006 Gallup 15 31 28 24 Sep. 2007 Gallup 15 28 32 24 Sep. 2008 Gallup 12 30 30 28 Aug.-Sep. 2009 Gallup 26 35 22 16 Sep. 2010 Gallup 20 29 27 24 Sep. 2011 Gallup 17 30 29 23
• Let me ask you how much trust and confidence you have at this time in the Judicial branch, headed by the U.S. Supreme Court...a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, none at all?
------------------Trust & confidence in judicial branch--------------------- Great Fair Not Very None deal amount much at all May 1972 Gallup 17% 49% 24% 7% Apr. 1974 Gallup 17 54 20 5 Jun. 1976 Gallup 16 47 26 6 May 1997 Gallup 19 52 22 5 Dec. 1998 Gallup 27 51 16 4 Feb. 1999 Gallup 29 51 13 5 Jul. 2000 Gallup 23 52 18 5 Sep. 2001 Gallup 17 57 20 4 Sep. 2002 Gallup 17 58 18 5 Sep. 2003 Gallup 13 54 27 5 Sep. 2004 Gallup 14 51 27 6 Sep. 2005 Gallup 13 55 25 6 Sep. 2006 Gallup 15 54 21 7 Sep. 2007 Gallup 14 54 23 6 Sep. 2008 Gallup 14 55 23 6 Aug.-Sep.2009 Gallup 18 58 18 4 Sep. 2010 Gallup 14 52 28 5 Sep. 2011 Gallup 12 51 28 8
TRUST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT: Gallup asks a question about trust and confidence in the judicial branch, headed by the Supreme Court.
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• Let me ask you how much trust and confidence you have at this time in the Legislative branch, consisting of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives...a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, none at all?
------------------Trust & confidence in the legislative branch--------------------- Great Fair Not very None deal amount much at all May 1972 Gallup 13% 58% 22% 3% Apr. 1974 Gallup 13 55 24 4 Jun. 1976 Gallup 9 52 31 6 May 1997 Gallup 6 48 36 8 Dec. 1998 Gallup 13 48 30 7 Feb. 1999 Gallup 9 49 34 7 Jul. 2000 Gallup 11 57 24 7 Sep. 2001 Gallup 7 58 28 6 Sep. 2002 Gallup 9 58 26 6 Sep. 2003 Gallup 8 55 31 5 Sep. 2004 Gallup 7 53 33 6 Sep. 2005 Gallup 8 54 31 6 Sep. 2006 Gallup 15 31 28 24 Sep. 2007 Gallup 5 45 36 12 Sep. 2008 Gallup 4 43 38 12 Sep. 2009 Gallup 6 39 38 17 Sep. 2010 Gallup 5 31 42 21 Sep. 2011 Gallup 5 26 50 19
• Of the three branches of the United States government, which one do you trust the most....the U.S. Congress, the legislative branch, the President, the executive branch, the Supreme Court, the judicial branch?
Legislative Executive Judicial branch branch branch Jun. 2005 Fox News 20% 22% 33% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
• Do you think elected officials should have more control over federal judges and the decisions they make in court cases, or don’t you think so?
More control Don’t think so Oct. 2006 CNN/ORC 30% 6%
Life Tenure, Mandatory Retirement
• Justices to the U.S. Supreme Court are given lifetime appointments, which means it is completely up to the individual justice when he or she retires. Do you think justices should continue to be allowed to serve as long as they want, or should there be a mandatory retirement age for Supreme Court justices? Serve as long Should be a mandatory as they want retirement age Jul. 2005 Fox News 28% 66% Apr. 2010 Fox News 30 65 NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
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• Which opinion comes closer to your own—appointing Supreme Court Justices for life is a good thing because it helps keep them independent from political pressures, or appointing Supreme Court Justices for life is a bad thing because it gives them too much power?
Good thing Bad thing
May-Jun. 2012 CBS/NYT 33% 60% (Demographic breakdowns) Republicans 29% 62% Democrats 35 57 Independents 34 61
• How do you feel about the likely retirement of one or more Supreme Court justices – do you welcome changes or are you uneasy about changes to the Supreme Court?
Welcome Uneasy Jun. 2005 Fox News 58% 28% NOTE: Question asked of registered voters.
Television Coverage
• Do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to allow television coverage of sessions of the U.S. Supreme court?
Good idea Bad idea Apr. 2006* Fox News 70% 18%
Sep. 2006# Fox News 63 25 NOTE: *Question asked of registered voters. #Question asked of likely voters.
• Do you think the U.S. Supreme Court should or should not allow television cameras into their courtroom when they hear arguments in their cases?
Should allow Should not allow
Mar. 2012 CNN/USA Today 61% 35%
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Many pollsters in the United States regularly supply us with their data. This report could not have been done without their assistance, and we thank them for it. The data in this report come from the archive of public opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute and from The Roper Center’s archive at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, Connecticut. The Roper Center is the oldest and largest archive of public opinion data in the world. To learn more about the Roper Center, visit http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/.
For comments or questions contact Karlyn Bowman at [email protected] or Andrew Rugg [email protected]
Compiled by Karlyn Bowman (Senior Fellow)
Andrew Rugg (Research Assistant) Special thanks to interns Allan Liu, Wylie Galvin, and Clement Bilhorn.
Also from AEI’s Political Corner: Political Report! The American Enterprise Institute’s Political Report is a monthly publication that examines current trends in public opinion and political developments. This easy-to-read report summarizes surveys from major pollsters on topics of current interest. If you’d like to be added to the mailing list, sing up online at http://newsletters.aei.org/aei_registration/Politics_and_Public_Opinion.html You may view Political Report at the AEI website as well: http://www.aei.org/search/Political+Report