public opinion can be described as those attitudes held by a significant number of people on matters...
TRANSCRIPT
Public opinion can be described as those attitudes held by a significant number of people on matters of
government and politics.
What is Public Opinion?What is Public Opinion?
Different PublicsDifferent Publics The United States is made up of many The United States is made up of many
groups, or publics, who share common groups, or publics, who share common views. views.
Publics Continued…Publics Continued… Public OpinionPublic OpinionMore than one public opinion can exist at the same time, More than one public opinion can exist at the same time,
because there are many publics. A view or position must because there are many publics. A view or position must be expressed in the open in order to be a public opinion. be expressed in the open in order to be a public opinion.
Measuring Public Measuring Public OpinionOpinion
Elections – By votes cast for a Elections – By votes cast for a particular candidate or part.particular candidate or part.
Interest groups (Pressure Interest groups (Pressure Groups) – Size and active Groups) – Size and active participation.participation.
Media – Editorials, syndicated Media – Editorials, syndicated columns, television columns, television commentaries, amount of time commentaries, amount of time given an issue.given an issue.
Public PollingPublic Polling
Straw Vote – asking the same question to a Straw Vote – asking the same question to a large number of people… (large number of people… (highly highly unreliableunreliable – does nothing to ensure that a – does nothing to ensure that a reasonable cross-section of the total reasonable cross-section of the total population will be represented.)population will be represented.)
Scientific Polling – a complex process that Scientific Polling – a complex process that attempts to follow a specific set of attempts to follow a specific set of guidelines to gauge public opinion. Using a guidelines to gauge public opinion. Using a small sample to represent the population as small sample to represent the population as a whole.a whole.
Scientific PollingScientific Polling
1.1. Define the universeDefine the universe
2.2. Construct a representative sampleConstruct a representative sample
3.3. Prepare valid questionsPrepare valid questions
4.4. Select and control the means by Select and control the means by which the poll will be takenwhich the poll will be taken
5.5. Report the finding to the publicReport the finding to the public
Scientific Polling: Scientific Polling: 1. Define the Universe1. Define the Universe
the whole population that the poll the whole population that the poll aims to measureaims to measure
ex. voters in Chicago, the entire high ex. voters in Chicago, the entire high school population of Illinois, All school population of Illinois, All Republicans, All Democrats, people Republicans, All Democrats, people whose ages are 35-50…whose ages are 35-50…
Scientific Polling: Scientific Polling: 2. Construct a Representative 2. Construct a Representative
SampleSample Random SampleRandom Sample
takes into account a certain number of takes into account a certain number of randomly selected peoplerandomly selected people
Quota SampleQuota Sample Deliberately selected sample of people Deliberately selected sample of people
constructed to reflect several of the constructed to reflect several of the major characteristics of the universe.major characteristics of the universe.
Scientific Polling: Scientific Polling: 3. Prepare Valid Questions3. Prepare Valid Questions
Question wording is extremely Question wording is extremely important as the wording can effect important as the wording can effect the reliability of the poll.the reliability of the poll.
Purposely try not to use “loaded” Purposely try not to use “loaded” words (terms that are difficult to words (terms that are difficult to understand) or word questions in understand) or word questions in such a way that will tend to shape such a way that will tend to shape the answers that are given.the answers that are given.
Scientific Polling: Scientific Polling: 4. Select and Control the 4. Select and Control the
PollingPolling Face to faceFace to face telephonetelephone mailmail in face to face polling, appearance in face to face polling, appearance
(dress, attitude, and tone can have a (dress, attitude, and tone can have a big impact)big impact)
Scientific Polling: Scientific Polling: 5. Report the Findings5. Report the Findings
To be of real value poll data must be analyzed, interpreted, To be of real value poll data must be analyzed, interpreted, and published.and published.
Real Clear Politics
Limitations of Polls and Limitations of Polls and Public OpinionPublic Opinion
While major national polls are fairly reliable, While major national polls are fairly reliable, challenges to the challenges to the intensityintensity, , stabilitystability, and , and relevancerelevance of an issue cause changes in public opinion over time.of an issue cause changes in public opinion over time.
Some believe that polls help shape opinions that they Some believe that polls help shape opinions that they are supposed to measure.are supposed to measure.
The force public opinion has can be tempered by The force public opinion has can be tempered by numerous factors: interest groups, family, education numerous factors: interest groups, family, education etc.etc.
From the data and interpretations, and From the data and interpretations, and organization can draw conclusions and see if organization can draw conclusions and see if the poll validated or repudiated their the poll validated or repudiated their hypothesis.hypothesis.