Public hearing on GOVSA Discussion Paper on climate change convened by Portfolio Committee on Environmental

Affairs

Hilton Trollip, Senior ResearcherEnergy, Environment & Climate Change

Energy Research Centre,University of Cape Town

22nd September, 2015, Parliament

Intended Nationally Determined ContributionINDC

ERC will focus on the mitigation component of the INDC- This means how South Africa intends to limit it’s greenhouse gas emissions

Contents• Role of University of Cape Town - Energy Research Centre (ERC)• What is South Africa’s position on mitigation

– What is accepted/established ?– Why should we care ?

• How should the INDC support South African position ? – Engagement in UNFCCC processes– Technical attributes of a mitigation INDC

• How does the mitigation INDC support the South African position ?– International assessment– National assessment

• Mitigation is achievable while achieving socio-economic goals • Low carbon development is also good for improving air/water quality, quality of life

• Conclusions

Role of University of Cape Town - Energy Research Centre (ERC)

ERC is• South African and African-based and

oriented • multi-disciplinary

• pursues excellence in technology, policy and sustainable development research, education and capacity building programmes at a local and international level

provide evidence for policy makers independent – without fear or favour transparent, peer-reviewed, open, …

What is South Africa’s position on mitigation What is accepted/established ?

**from South Africa draft position document

• “South Africa as a global responsible citizen is committed to making a fair contribution to addressing the challenge of climate change based on science and equity

• “…to ensure that global emission reduction efforts are adequate to avert dangerous climate change – while respecting developing countries’ priorities for

development and eradicating poverty

• “effective (be based on sound science) • “adequate (to keep temperature increase below

2°C)

How should the INDC support South African position ? Engagement in UNFCCC processes

• South Africa demonstrated leadership at COP15 with the Copenhagen PPD pledge

• Ditto at COP17- Durban– The Paris COP21 will be implementing the

agreement made in Durban

• SA is the G77 ChairSouth Africa is responsible for negotiating and speaking on behalf of two-thirds of the UN membership on key development issues - the G77 is the largest coalition of developing countries in the UN. It provides the means for countries to promote collective economic interests and enhance negotiating capacity on major economic and development issues.

What is South Africa’s position on mitigation **What is accepted/established ?

**from South Africa draft position document

** “South Africa calls for enhancement of mitigation ambition, in accordance with the provisions and principles of the Convention with a view to achieving the 1.5*** or 2 degree Celsius target

**from South Africa draft position document***position of African Group of negotiators, endorsed by African Ministers

What is South Africa’s position on mitigation Why should we care ?

If inadequately addressed Climate Change will have severe consequences for Africa and South Africa

– To avert this requires every country has to play its part, and involves considerable challenges

• South Africa has played a leadership role up until now– Constructive: GOVSA is acting in a way that is

commensurate with the outcomes we want and need• If GOVSA DOES not act appropriately and effectively we increase

risks of severe consequences– From climate change– From benefits of membership of international community

How should the INDC support South African position ? Technical attributes of a mitigation INDC

• Clear• In good faith**• Show how it supports South African position

– To achieve global 2oC ( and/or 1.5oC )• Fair contribution

– To achieve local implementation• Adequate evidence and analysis

• Support previous commitments and show development and ‘homework’ relevant to UNFCCC developments

There is no doubt South Africa has the necessary capacity for the above. The question is how it chooses to deploy this capacity ?

**can’t say one thing and be known and seen to be supporting and doing another

AustraliaCanadaChileJapanNew ZealandRussian FederationSingaporeSouth AfricaSouth KoreaUkraine

BrazilChinaEUIndiaIndonesiaKazakhstanMexicoNorwayPeruSwitzerlandUSA

Costa RicaEthiopiaMorocco

BhutanRole Model

Inadequate

Sufficient

Medium

Role Model:More than consistent with below 2°C limit

Sufficient:Fully consistent with below 2°C limit

Medium:Not consistent with

limiting warming below 2°C as it would require

many other countries to make a comparably

greater effort and much deeper reductions

Inadequate:If all governments put forward inadequate positions warming likely to exceed 3 – 4 °C

Climate Action Tracker

IS SA MITIGATION INDC FAIR?How does the mitigation INDC support the South African position ? - International assessment of ambition level

How does the mitigation INDC support the South African position ? - International assessment of ambition level

Inadequate

Medium Sufficient Role Model

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Climate Action Tracker

Is SA’s contribution a fair share?

Climate Equity Reference Calculator: http://calculator.climateequityreference.org

IS THE South African MITIGATION INDC POSSIBLE ?

• 14 Gt line added in blue – output of DDPP result: energy plus• Green line – with AFOLU, waste, Iron & Steel Industrial Process emissions

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Assessment of 14Gt energy emissions

• Linked full-sector economic CGE model with full-sector energy optimization model– Documented– Transparent– Open

http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/DDPP_ZAF.pdfDDPP consists of research teams from 16 countries representing 74% of current global GHG emissions: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, United Kingdom, and United States. The teams consist of scholars from leading research institutions in their respective countries, who are acting independently.

DDPP combined results

Strong growth projected

Value-added to GDP for major sectors in 2010, 2030, and 2050

Core of the economy remains strong

Industry value add to GDP by industrial subsector

Unemployment reduced

Unemployment rate over time• GDP/capita increases 170%• Population in low-income

bracket decreases from 50% to 18% by 2050

• Unemployment decreases from 25% to 12%/18%

Decarbonising electricity is KEY !

How does the mitigation INDC support the South African position ? - National assessment of ambition level

Further points• Existing official/public statistics** are:

– Inadequate – the Inventory is necessary but cannot be a basis for what is now required for mitigation analysis, implementation and monitoring

– Not up to date– A sticking point that needs urgent attention

• Government policies are not aligned– Each Ministry/department appears to have a different

often contradictory policy

**Official statistics, not data held confidential by emitters

Conclusions

• Linked energy-system/economy modeling and detailed research shows PPD range is achievable while also achieving socio-economic goals

• South Africa needs to improve statistics • Alignment of government departments/efforts

– Climate change involves much, much more than environmental policy

• Process of open debate, informed by high quality evidence and analysis is required to deepen and extend the evidence-based policy making process– To ensure balancing interests

Example of renewable energy electricity in SA

Thank you !

How should the INDC support South African position ? Some possible mitigation INDCs and outcomes

1. INDC FAIR and ALIGNED to 20C/1.50C …And international success FIRST PRIZE, what we are working for

2. INDC NOT FAIR and ALIGNED to 20C/1.50C undermines negotiations and increases risks of all climate change risks,

plus…If South Africa tries to be a free-rider

Steady loss of benefits of international community

• Trade, investment, …• Other lost opportunities

3. INDC FAIR and ALIGNED to 20C/1.50C …But international failure our mitigation INDC is flexible, consistent with multi-lateral negotiations

process ( we make sure we address adaptation )

4. INDC INDC is late, reluctant, vague, conflicted, … ( and does little …late )– Incoherent policy– Stranded assets, Dead-end development path, Lost opportunities, Much more

costly to act later– Many mitigation options carry significant benefits