Psychology of Weather Prediction

• The psychological element is crucial. Must strive to be mentally neutral about forecasts.Think like Mr. Spock (or Data)

• In some ways, meteorologists are the last people you want to be making forecasts, because we love interesting weather and tend to forecast it too frequently.

• Sometimes forecasters with great technical knowledge have poor performance because of psychological reasons!

Potentially Good Forecasters

Psychology of Weather Prediction

• When many things are happening at once, meteorologists often focus on one of them to the detriment of others.

• Humans like conceptual models and often hold on to them even when reality is at odds.

• Humans are deterministic animals and often push uncertainty away when we shouldn’t.

Major Psychological Elements• LOVE

Meteorologists love interesting weather and tend to overforecast it

• OVERCOMPENSATIONWe tend to excessively compensate for previous error. This can produce a classic sinusoidal error evolution.

• MACHOThere is a tendency to go for extreme or improbable situations. If

you hit, it is like meteorological cocaine high!

• INSECUREGoing with MOS or NWS forecast or fearing to deviate from

them substantially.

The Bottom Line

• Forecasting is very important and critically affects people’s lives. It requires professional detachment.

Understanding How Our Customers Use Weather Forecasts

• Psychological studies are required to understand how people interpret forecasts.

• How do we express predictions in a way to maximize understanding and correct response?

• A particular issue for probabilistic prediction (UW Prof. Susan Joslyn of Psychology is working on this)

Case in Point: Poor Icons

NWS Precipitation Icons

•Just as bad are their cloudiness icons…look at mostly cloudy below……does that icon fit the description? No, of course. And look at partly cloudy…almost the same…both have the sun out!! •Also note that the POP is 20% on the right…no chance of rain there…but there is one of course.

And a “slight” chance of freezing drizzle reminds one of a trip to

Antarctica

Study by Professor Joslyn and students

The Winner

New NWS Icons

New Icons

Getting the Correct Response

• Recently, excellent tornado forecasts in Joplin, MI and other locations were unable to stop massive deaths and injury…shows the need for psychological studies.

• Forecasts were very skillful but folks are not taking the correct actions.

• Also true with Hurricane Katrina.

Summary

• Making very skillful forecasts is only half the battle.

• Just as important, and harder, is to get society to pay attention and to respond appropriately to save lives and property and to secure maximum economic benefit.