psychology of personal decision-making securityfamilyadventure congo-0++ arizona++0...
TRANSCRIPT
Decision TablesPsychology of Personal Decision-Making
Security Family Adventure
Congo - 0 ++
Arizona + + 0
Afghanistan
-- - +++
Agenda
Video: Building Green How to Choose: “The decision ladder” Prioritized Lists Screening Fact and Value Tables Decision Tables▪ +/-▪ 1-10▪ Calculations
The Decision Ladder
Start with simple methods and move to complex methods only as necessary!
The Decision Ladder
Decision Tree
1-10 Decision Table
+/- Decision Table
Screening
Prioritized List
Prioritized Lists
Bad decisions: Single alternative No Devil’s advocate (groupthink) Unanimous adoption of bad idea
Prioritized Lists
Build a robust list of alternatives! ++ save up for kayaking trip (accept) + go to the coast to hunt for shells
(reject)
- drive smelly grandma to airport (accept)
--bathe grandma (reject)
Ways to Prioritize
Intuition vs. Analysis
Intuition = simultaneous feelings about alternatives One usually feels best, so we choose
Analysis = breaks the problem into sub parts and solves
If the decision is important, use analysis!
After Analysis is complete…
Ask yourself (using intuition): “Does this really make sense?” “Does it seem right?”
If no… Analysis is wrong (values, alternatives,
weights) Intuition is wrong (denying yourself the
truth) Both are wrong
Errors in intuition
World is flat Highly streamlined shapes best for
earth re-entry Odds 2 people will have same
birthday in classroom of 30 (= 1 in 30)
Galileo and Tower of Pisa Others?
Choosing among alternatives
Either: Choose alternative giving you the most
ammo for justifying the choice to others Choose based on good outcomes or
consequences
Beware of “rule of thumb” justifications▪ They can be contradictory ▪ “2 heads better than 1 vs. too many cooks in the
kitchen spoil the broth”
Explain to me?
“When the sky looks like its been scratched by a hen, it’s time to reef your topsails then”
If rules of thumb are in conflict:
Consider outcomes or consequences
Screening
A lot like panning for gold Consider 1 attribute at a time and
reject TV purchase : Store first, then warranty,
then…
Best buy, Target, Staples, Newegg, Amazon
Sony, Mitsubishi, Sanyo
Problem with screening
You may have screened something really good out!
FIX: Screen the most important value first If doubt about keeping an alternative,
keep it! This way mistakes will not be huge
TAKEAWAY: Screen when values of very high importance are abound
Very high importance screening example
Bleeding, Breathing, Poisoning, Broken Bones
Decision Tables
Ensures same values will be compared against multiple alternatives
Screened out all linguists but Oxford grads because of stage presence
Still are comparing stage presence on each Oxford grad
DTs: Divide and Conquer!
Security Family Adventure
Congo
Arizona
Afghanistan
Decision Tables and Stakeholders
Security
Family Adventure
Grandpa Susie
Congo
Arizona
Afghanistan
Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs
Security
Family Adventure
Grandpa Susie
Congo 1 armed guard
70% of time laughing
30 whizbang things per day
Allergic to rainforests
Loves searching for monkeys
Arizona None needed
30% of time laughing
5 whizbang things per day
Lives in New Mexico
Has thought well of the desert
Afghanistan
5 armed guards
3% of time laughing
60 whizbang things per day
Just completed a memoir “In a soldier’s shoes”
Is scared by bullets
Vietnam 1 armed guard
20% of time laughing
40 whizbangs
Fought in NAM
Enjoys jungles and monkeys
Creative Alternative???
Fact Tables = Assembling beliefs
Security
Family Adventure
Grandpa Susie
Congo + ++ + - +
Arizona + + 0 - +
Afghanistan
-- 0 ++ + -
Vietnam - + + ++ +
Creative Alternative???
Value Table Conversion = +/- Preferences
Security
Family Adventure
Grandpa Susie
Congo 1 armed guard
70% of time laughing
30 whizbang things per day
Allergic to rainforests
Loves searching for monkeys
Arizona None needed
30% of time laughing
5 whizbang things per day
Lives in New Mexico
Has thought well of the desert
Afghanistan
5 armed guards
3% of time laughing
90 whizbang things per day
Just completed a memoir “In a soldier’s shoes”
Is scared by bullets
Dominance??
Value Table Conversion = +/- Preferences
Security
Family Adventure
Grandpa Susie
Congo - 70% of time laughing
30 whizbang things per day
Allergic to rainforests
Loves searching for monkeys
Arizona None needed
30% of time laughing
5 whizbang things per day
Lives in New Mexico
Has thought well of the desert
Afghanistan
5 armed guards
3% of time laughing
90 whizbang things per day
Just completed a memoir “In a soldier’s shoes”
Is scared by bullets
Dominance??
About dominance
We hope to find it, but caution! May indicate superior alternative▪ Also irrationality/extremes
1-10 value tables: RWAM!
Rate (1-10, since zeroes confuse people) Go globally, so 1 is at least preferable
but may not be in your range Weight
Use magic wishes Multiply Down Add Across
1 – 10 value tables
Security
.50
Family.25
Adventure.18
Grandpa.035
Susie.035
Congo 4 7 4 1 7
Afghanistan
2 1 8 6 1
Vietnam 6 3 5 7 8
Security
Family Adventure
Grandpa Susie
10 (most preferred)
No guards needed
98% laughing
100 whizbang
things per day
n/a n/a
1 (lease preferred)
20 guards needed
0% laughing
0 whizbang
things per day
n/a n/a
How to Weight (Range Table)
Security
Family Adventure
Grandpa Susie
10 (most preferred)
No guards needed
98% laughing
100 whizbang
things per day
n/a n/a
1 (lease preferred)
20 guards needed
0% laughing
0 whizbang
things per day
n/a n/a
Relative Importance
Can help to think about relative: Magnitude Duration Probability Number of people impacted
Commitment
Bumper sticker slogans Written sentences