PSCI 4252/Politics of Ethnicity and Nationalism

Theories of Ethnic Conflict

Ted Gurr“Relative

Deprivation”

Steven Van Evera

Attributes of nationalism that can determine propensity for war

• Statehood attained or unattained?• Position on national diaspora: Do they seek movement

cohesion?• Respect for other nations right to national

independence• Oppression of minorities

Van Evera

• Structural Conditions that make ethnic Conflict more likely:– Ratio between stateless nationalism and states is high and

states are weak– Degree of Ethnic Intermingling is high– Borders are indefensible– Correspondence of borders w/ethnic boundaries is weak

Van Evera

• Political Conditions:– Greater the past transgressions, the more likely the

conflict– More recent the conflict, the more likely– Level of remorse expressed by aggressor

• Perceptual Conditions – Nationalist Self-Image– Beliefs are similar, coexistence possible– Self myth-making/self-glorifying/self-whitewashing

Lake & Rothchild

• Ethnic conflict is caused by “Collective Fear of the Future”.

• When ethnic groups come to fear for their future (physical) security, they prepare for conflict, thus initiating a security dilemma. Several things can cause such a fear to develop, such as a decline in cultural security or past experience with conflict. The factor that Lake and Rothchild dwell on the most is rising anarchy, essentially a Hobbesian argument: as the Leviathan (the state) declines (becomes unable to prevent conflict), ethnic groups fear that their physical security may be at risk.

• Variables: – Y: Ethnic conflict – X1: Fear of what the future might bring (conditioned strongly by what the

past has brought). – X2: Three strategic dilemmas: information failure, credible commitment

problems, and incentives to use force pre-emptively (the security dilemma). – X3: "Nonrational factors" like "emotions, historical memories, and myths"

Horowitz & Ethnic Political Parties• Can Political Parties produce ethnic conflict?

– “In some countries in the West, ethnic cleavages coexist with other historic sources of conflict. However, societies that are deeply riven along preponderant ethnic cleavage – as in many Asian and African states – tend to produce party systems that exacerbate ethnic conflict.”

– Politicians have created ethnic conflict.– Two-party systems have moderate ideological differences

where multi-party systems polarize ideology.– Various ethnic groups rarely distribute themselves

randomly among competing parties (even in the West)

Ethnic Parties in the U.S.?

• 76% of African-Americans call themselves Democrats and 92% voted Democrat in the last presidential election

• 67% of Latino-Americans say they are Democrats & the same percentage voted for Barack Obama

Sources of Ethnic Parties• Colonial Heritage• Internal imperatives of the ethnic group as a

community• External imperatives • Post-ethnic civil war• Candidates who support one ethnic group

over another• Descriptive Representation• Parents

Why does this lead to conflict?

• Once one party organizes ethnically, others tend to follow.

• Coincidence of party with ethnic group boundaries prevents the exercise of choice by voters. This is conducive to fears of permanent domination.

• This fixity of ethnically-based parties’ ascriptive predictability outcomes fosters conflict.

Roland Paris – “Peacebuilding and the Limits of Liberal Internationalism”

• Liberal Internationalism – Market economy plus a liberal democratic polity

• This strategy has “the perverse effect of undermining the very peace they were meant to buttress.”

• “The liberal internationalist paradigm of peacebuilding had, in various ways, exacerbated social tensions and thus contributed to the continuation or renewal of instability.”

• “Capitalism and democracy encourage conflict and competition and if fact thrive on them.”

Paris’ Alternative – Strategic Liberalization

• Gradual and controlled democratization instead of shock therapy – “The fallacy of electoralism”

• Design elections that reward moderation vice extremism

• Longer involvement of international community in the recipient nations (7-9 yrs)

• “Authoritarian solutions to war-shattered states should not be rejected out of hand.”

• Create effective intl coordinating bodies.• Partition my lead to ethnic cleansing