prx ethanol weekly update - grain...

PRX The ProExporter Network®

©2013 The ProExporter Network®. The analysis above is not intended as a trade recommendation. The analysis and forecasts are based on available public data and on the best judgment of PRX, but cannot be guaranteed to conform to future reality.!

5/15/13! PRX Ethanol Weekly, !

PRX ETHANOL WEEKLY UPDATEPRX_EthanolWeekly_Anal_Start, GTB-13-05, May-15-13

FUEL ETHANOL SUPPLY-DEMAND, LATEST WEEK from EIA1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11Latest Categories (Blue = from EIA "Weekly Supply Estimates")Week Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol Ethanol

Beg Imports Domestic Sup- End Total Exports Domestic Domestic ResidualStocks from Prdn ply Stocks Disap- to Disap- Refiner Disp

foreign pearance foreign pearance InputEIA EIA EIA calc EIA calc DOC calc EIA calc

milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr10-May-13 708 159 13138 14004 690 13314 557 12757 12969 -212

up 215 vs. prev wk up 123 vs. prev wk

FUEL ETHANOL VS. TOTAL MO GAS, RFS, & E10 BLEND WALL1 4 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Categories (Blue = from EIA "Weekly Supply Estimates")Latest Ethanol Ethanol Total Reported MoGas Reported EPA EIAWeek Domestic Domestic MoGas Ethanol Dmstc MoGas 2013 2013 Monthly

Prdn Refiner receiving inclusion Prdn w/eth RFS RFS ForecastInput ethanol rate shr Prdn original PRX MoGas

EIA EIA calc calc EIA calc EPA calc Prdnmilgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr pct milgal/yr milgal/yr milgal/yr

10-May-13 13138 12969 130090 9.97% 127868 101.74% 13800 13800 13301496.10%

Cal 2013 avg 12476 12409 124205 9.99% 129226 96.10% E10 Blend Wall = 12783Crop Year Forecasts

Month milgal/yr milgal/yrMay-15-13 PRX 2012-13 12695 2013-14 13655

mil bu/crop yr mil bu/crop yrMay-15-13 WASDE 2012-13 4600 2013-14 4850May-15-13 PRX 2012-13 4500 2013-14 4827

Note. PRX uses higher ethanol gallons/bushel than USDA.

Latest week: Production up, but still remains below RFS. Refiner Input up from previous week. For 2013 YTD,

refiner input ABOVE calc'd annual E10 Blend Wall but below RFS mandate by

831 mil gal.




120000

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9/1/09 9/1/10 9/1/11 9/1/12 9/1/13

EIA Weekly, ReportedEIA Monthly, ActualEIA Monthly, ForecastCalendar Year 2010 = 138462Calendar Year 2011 = 134167Calendar Year 2012 = 133417Calendar Year 2013 = 132986

US MoGAS PRODUCTION, MONTHLY vs. WEEKLY EIA DATA, MILLION GALLONS, ANNUALIZED

PRX_EthanolWeekly_Anal_Start, GTB-13-05, May-15-13. Chart data on pages 13,14.

First three months of calendar 2012 = very weak MoGas usage, reducing

opportunity for domestic inclusion of ethanol at required RFS level. MoGas use now declining from summer 2012.




1/17/121/24/121/31/122/7/12

2/14/122/21/122/28/123/6/12

3/13/123/20/123/27/124/3/12

4/10/124/17/124/24/125/1/125/8/12

5/15/125/22/125/29/126/5/12

6/12/126/19/126/26/127/3/12

7/10/127/17/127/24/127/31/128/7/12

8/14/128/21/12

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9/1/09 9/1/10 9/1/11 9/1/12 9/1/130.00

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EIA Weekly Production EIA Monthly, Actual EIA Monthly Prdn, ForecastRFS cal 2010 = 12000 RFS cal 2009 = 10500 RFS cal 2011 = 12600RFS cal 2012 = 13200 RFS cal 2013 = 13800 Dry Mill Est Margin

US ETHANOL PRODUCTION vs. DRY MILL MARGIN

EIA weekly data show recent dops in production, margin below break-even.

PRX_EthanolWeekly_Anal_Start, GTB-13-05, May-15-13

Mil Gal Annualized $/Gal

Approx breakeven = 0.38




10/26/1011/2/1011/9/10

11/16/1011/23/1011/30/1012/7/10

12/14/1012/21/1012/28/10

1/4/111/11/111/18/111/25/112/1/112/8/11

2/15/112/22/113/1/113/8/11

3/15/113/22/113/29/114/5/11

4/12/114/19/114/26/115/3/11

5/10/115/17/115/24/115/31/116/7/11

6/14/116/21/116/28/117/5/11

7/12/117/19/117/26/118/2/118/9/11

8/16/118/23/118/30/119/6/11

9/13/119/20/11

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9/1/09 9/1/10 9/1/11 9/1/12 9/1/13

RFS cal 2012 = 13200 RFS cal 2012 est. by % in RuleRFS cal 2011 = 12600 RFS cal 2013 = 13800EIA Weekly Production EIA Monthly, ActualEIA Monthly Prdn, Forecast CY 2012 "Blend Wall" @ 10% MogasCY 2011 "Blend Wall" @ 10% Mogas CY 2013 "Blend Wall" @ 10% MogasEIA Weekly Refinery Input

US CONVENTIONAL ETHANOL PRODUCTION, MONTHLY vs. WEEKLY EIA DATA, MILLION GALLONS, ANNUALIZED


RFS

Production Forecast, EIA

For 2012, RFS Standard is 13200 mil gals, but by Final Rule Percentage basis

will be about 13031. For 2013, RFS Standard is 13800 mil gals, ABOVE the

E10 Blend Wall!

E10 Blend Wall




9.7%

9.8%

9.9%

10.0%

10.1%

10.2%

10.3%

10.4%

10.5%

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Reported Refiner Inputof Ethanol as share ofMotor Gasoline withEthanol


Gradual decline from 10.00% toward 9.95% ethanol inclusion, as share of MoGas receiving

ethanol gyrates between 88 and 100%.

CALCULATED ETHANOL INCLUSION RATE IN MOTOR FUEL WHICH RECEIVES ETHANOL

82.0%

84.0%

86.0%

88.0%

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%6/

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Reported share of allmotor fuel receivingethanol of Total MotorGasoline ProductSupplied

PRX_EthanolWeekly_Anal_Start, GTB-13-05, May-15-13SHARE OF TOTAL REPORTED MOTOR FUEL RECEIVING ETHANOL

Highest ever this week!




Holbrook, 7-14-1082818651876193899680

1036810533108111124711844121491235312728127281283313033131881328813288135331353313533137311373113791

LatestAnnualized Data

Nov-12Ethanol Domestic Usage

12660 mil galsEthanol Domestic Production

12872 mil galsEthanol Exports to Foreign

493 mil gals0

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11000

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13000

14000

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16000

Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Ethanol domesticproduction, EIAforecast, May-13annualized

Ethanol domesticproduction, actual,annualized

Ethanol domesticusage in MoGas,actual, annualized,latest month = Feb-13

PRX Corn EthanolPrdn CapacityConstructed andunder construction in2009PRX Forecast of CropYear EthanolProduction

RFS target, averagefor calendar year

ETHANOL DOMESTIC USE AND PRODUCTION, MONTHLY DATA ANNUALIZEDSource: Energy Information Administration,Petroleum Supply Monthly and PRX

PRX_EthanolPrdnREV, GTB-13-04, May-01-13Million gallons

Most reliable data for estimating expansion of ethanol blending and total usage is MONTHLY, despite the fact that this data trails the market by about 60 days or so.




-150-125-100

-75-50-25

0255075

100125150175200225250275300325350375400

Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Wholesale Gasoline, actual

Wholesale Gasoline, EIAforecastEthanol spot farmbelt, actual(JSA from ECBOT)Ethanol spot farmbelt, PRXforecast based on ECBOT)Ethanol minus WholesaleGasoline, actualEthanol minus WholesaleGasoline, forecast

ETHANOL & WHOLESALE GASOLINE PRICE, Past Ten Years by MonthSource: US DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA) & EBN. © PRX 2013, File PRX_EIA_PriceAnal, May-07-13Cents per gallon

\

EIA forecasts stable differential, but ethanol's

actual premium/discount to wholesale gasoline has been

variable and volatile.




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Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Ethanol wholesale price share ofgasoline wholesale priceE85 "76% Fuel Value Breakevenvs. E10" (using btu values)Ethanol price share average2007 to presentRatio with Ethanol Price minusD6 RIN price

ETHANOL WHOLESALE PRICE as SHARE GASOLINE WHOLESALE PRICESource: US DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA) & EBN. © PRX 2013, File PRX_EIA_PriceAnal, May-07-13Ratio

\

Higher actual ratio since 2007 is probably due to ethanol's octane value. But note that the

"physical value" of ethanol (sales price minus RIN value) is now low enough to move the ethanol/gasoline ratio well below the 76%

"breakeven."




-6.0

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07

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7

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Oct

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Jul-0

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Petroleum gasoline octane cost (per 1 octane point)(= Premium refinerbulk price minus Regular refiner bulk price divided by 5 octane points)Ethanol octane cost vs. gasoline (per 1 octane point) (= Ethanol midwestprice minus Gasoine Regular price divided by 26 octane points)

OCTANE VALUE OF GASOLINE (EIA Monthly) vs. ETHANOLOctane Value (cts/gal)

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_refmg2_d_nus_PBR_dpgal_m.htm

© PRX 2013, File PRX_OctaneAnal, Apr-03-13

Ethanol can accomplish the octane job cheaper than the reformed compounds made by refiners from petroleum, as making these compounds involves by-products in gaseous

form that must compete with (lower) natural gas price.




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D6 2012 RINConventionalD6 2013 RINConventionalD5 2013 minus D62013 Differential


D6 Conventional RIN Price, $/gal

D5 minus D6 RIN price differential is compliance premium available to Brazil

sugarcane ethanol imports.

D6 RIN Price

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D4 2012 RINBiodiesel

D4 2013 RINBiodiesel

D5 2012 RINAdvanced

D5 2013 RINAdvanced


D4 & D5 RIN Prices, $/gal

D4 RIN Price

D5 RIN Price




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Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12-250

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250Brazilian sugar ethanol, Sao Paulo US cts/gal

US corn ethanol, Chicago, cts/gal

US Corn Ethanol (Chicago) premium over BrazilianSugar Anhydrous Ethanol (Sao Paulo)

SUGAR ETHANOL VS. CORN ETHANOL, MONTHLY, 2000-CURRENTPRX_BrazilCost_Anal, GTB-13-05, May-10-13

Current price differential (excluding RIN premium and ocean freight) shows US corn ethanol cheaper than

Brazilian sugarcane ethanol.

US Cents/gal Premium, US Cents/gal




Premium with D5 - D6 RIN differential

-175

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Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13-245

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-35

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245Exports to BrazilExports to Others (incl UAE, India, Jamaica, Nigeria)Exports to European UnionExports to CanadaFuel ethanol imports from all originationsUS Corn Ethanol Premium over Brzl Sugar EthanolPremium with D5 - D6 RIN differential

US ETHANOL EXPORTS & IMPORTS, MONTHLY, 06-07 TO CURRENT

Million gallons/moPRX_Sugar_Start, GTB-13-02, Feb-17-13

With US corn ethanol plus DIFFERENTIAL between D5 and D6 RIN declining, imports from Brazil not increasing. Comparison

excludes ocean freight of approx 18 cents/gal (See p.18).

Price Premium, US cts/gal




FUEL ETHANOL IMPORTS BY UNITED STATES, CROP YEARS & RECENT MONTHS© PRX 2013, File PRX_EthanolEXIM, May-10-13Imports by Port Region Imports by Origination

Atlantic Gulf Florida Lakes Calif PNW Total Brazil CBI Totalmil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals

Sep-Aug Crop Year03-04 95.9 33.4 0.0 5.4 59.0 14.7 208.304-05 63.3 36.3 0.0 8.3 41.1 5.2 154.205-06 315.2 77.8 0.0 14.9 125.4 17.4 550.806-07 461.9 97.9 0.5 24.8 59.8 42.2 687.007-08 301.3 100.1 24.9 17.5 19.6 24.4 487.908-09 173.7 29.9 42.9 12.1 27.2 32.5 318.209-10 9.9 25.0 1.7 15.2 0.0 3.4 55.310-11 44.4 0.1 13.6 7.3 2.7 0.0 67.9

Month Sep-11 6.7 8.2 1.2 17.7 33.7 17.1 16.7 33.7Oct-11 13.7 1.1 1.0 6.6 22.3 19.7 2.6 22.3Nov-11 16.6 0.0 5.6 0.7 3.9 26.9 19.6 7.2 26.9Dec-11 31.5 10.2 0.3 3.9 45.9 45.9 0.0 45.9Jan-12 5.1 0.0 5.1 4.6 0.6 5.1Feb-12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Mar-12 7.8 10.1 0.0 18.0 15.0 2.9 18.0Apr-12 6.2 3.2 9.5 0.0 0.0 9.5May-12 10.3 5.8 16.1 16.1 0.0 16.1Jun-12 17.9 2.5 7.3 27.8 27.8 0.0 27.8Jul-12 26.9 9.7 10.2 46.8 45.1 1.7 46.8Aug-12 60.1 10.5 14.7 15.7 100.9 100.9 0.0 100.9

Crop Year 2011-12 202.8 13.0 76.0 3.1 58.0 0.0 353.0 311.8 31.7 353.0Month Sep-12 54.9 3.9 11.0 22.7 92.5 92.5 0.0 92.5

Oct-12 41.6 5.5 9.0 10.9 5.4 72.3 72.3 0.0 72.3Nov-12 53.6 5.3 10.0 14.4 83.2 83.2 0.0 83.2Dec-12 42.2 10.6 24.3 5.6 82.8 82.8 0.0 82.8Jan-13 33.0 1.7 11.6 46.4 46.4 0.0 46.4Feb-13 5.5 2.6 6.5 5.5 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0Mar-13 22.9 1.1 28.7 52.7 52.7 0.0 52.7Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13

Crop Year 2012-13 253.8 17.3 49.9 0.0 118.1 11.0 449.9 449.9 0.0 449.9Brzl ocean cts/gal 18 16 16 25




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Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Total Consumption, EIA forecast

Total Consumption, Actual

RFS2 Biodiesel Applicable Volume(Annual/12) Soyoil Feedstock Usage

US BIODIESEL CONSUMPTION, 2009 to CURRENTMillion Gallons/Month © PRX 2013, File PRX_Biodiesel_Start, Apr-24-13

Because of the E10 Blend Wall, and because of EPA's continuing non-waiver of "Other Advanced Biofuels," the production and use of BIODIESEL

may be well above the RFS2 volumes—in order to help generate more RINs in 2013 and 2014.

Annual = 1280 mil gals Annual = 1390

mil gals




BIODIESEL PRODUCTION BY TYPE OF FEEDSTOCKSource = www.eia.giv/biofuels/biodiesel/. © PRX 2013, File PRX_Biodiesel_Start, Apr-24-13

Period Vegetable Oil Animal Fats Recycled Feeds Subtotal Approximate Biodiesel Yield @7.3 lbs/gal NoteSoybean Corn Canola Poultry Tallow White Other Yellow Other Soybean Corn Canola Subtotal Total Soybean

Oil Oil Oil Fat Grease Fat Grease Greese Oil Oil Oil STEO Oilmil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil lbs mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals mil gals Percent

Sep-10 102 19 11 13 11 33 1 27 5 222 14 3 2 18 30 46%Oct-10 105 14 10 14 9 32 1 19 8 212 14 2 1 18 29 50%Nov-10 73 11 4 9 4 32 2 13 8 156 10 2 1 12 23 44%Dec-10 63 18 8 11 8 35 3 25 10 181 9 2 1 12 25 35%Jan-11 150 17 8 14 11 31 3 18 10 262 21 2 1 24 35 58%Feb-11 150 13 26 14 11 48 2 19 11 294 21 2 4 26 40 51%Mar-11 190 14 68 19 27 60 12 33 10 433 26 2 9 37 60 43%Apr-11 236 20 88 15 47 55 8 52 11 532 32 3 12 47 71 46%May-11 264 21 113 16 36 57 10 41 15 573 36 3 15 55 77 47%Jun-11 311 34 75 23 49 55 7 50 18 622 43 5 10 58 82 52%Jul-11 367 35 77 26 64 49 6 45 20 689 50 5 11 66 91 55%Aug-11 398 37 84 34 38 48 15 47 19 720 55 5 12 71 95 57%Sep-11 430 27 84 20 49 40 4 50 21 725 59 4 12 74 96 62%Oct-11 527 30 69 31 39 29 7 42 21 795 72 4 9 86 105 68%Nov-11 538 27 84 13 31 35 8 39 20 795 74 4 12 89 105 70%Dec-11 592 30 71 15 27 26 5 35 20 821 81 4 10 95 109 74%Jan-12 306 40 73 20 25 29 3 31 18 545 42 5 10 57 72 59%Feb-12 320 43 90 8 20 29 4 34 22 570 44 6 12 62 77 57%Mar-12 387 44 117 11 23 31 6 54 21 694 53 6 16 75 92 57%Apr-12 349 45 112 11 44 41 5 61 24 692 48 6 15 69 92 52%May-12 428 46 85 16 50 38 5 54 26 748 59 6 12 77 100 58%Jun-12 369 46 103 10 28 39 4 57 27 683 51 6 14 71 91 56%Jul-12 347 45 64 20 30 31 4 57 24 622 48 6 9 62 87 54%Aug-12 385 50 48 21 44 34 4 67 27 680 53 7 7 66 90 59%Sep-12 322 55 46 19 49 33 4 62 25 615 44 8 6 58 81 55%Oct-12 307 59 16 14 44 41 4 57 29 571 42 8 2 52 74 57%Nov-12 244 48 17 11 22 28 4 35 23 432 33 7 2 42 57 59%Dec-12 259 50 16 9 3 35 2 44 21 439 35 7 2 45 57 62%Jan-13 300 60 16 7 15 31 3 46 23 501 41 8 2 52 66 62%Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Aug-13Crop Year To Date10-11 2409 253 572 208 315 535 70 389 145 4896 330 35 78 443 657 50%11-12 4978 473 1000 196 410 402 59 581 271 8370 682 65 137 884 1116 61%12-13 1432 272 111 60 133 168 17 244 121 2558 196 37 15 249 335 59%




SOYOIL PRICE FOR BIODIESEL BREAKEVENat GIVEN US RAC CRUDE OIL PRICE (with $1.00 Tax Credit)

$1.00 and with RIN Price of: $0.95 1 gal biodiesel generates 1.5 RINsPRX_EthanolWeekly_Anal_Start, GTB-13-03, Mar-13-13

Crude Oil Price, $/bbl, US RAC$76.00 $81.00 $86.00 $91.00 $96.00 $101.00 $106.00 $111.00 $116.00

Profitability of Biodiesel at given crude oil and soyoil prices, $/galSoybean $0.43 $0.67 $0.78 $0.90 $1.02 $1.14 $1.26 $1.38 $1.50 $1.62Oil Price $0.44 $0.59 $0.71 $0.83 $0.95 $1.07 $1.19 $1.31 $1.43 $1.54$/lb $0.45 $0.52 $0.64 $0.76 $0.88 $1.00 $1.11 $1.23 $1.35 $1.47

$0.46 $0.45 $0.57 $0.68 $0.80 $0.92 $1.04 $1.16 $1.28 $1.40$0.47 $0.37 $0.49 $0.61 $0.73 $0.85 $0.97 $1.09 $1.21 $1.33$0.48 $0.30 $0.42 $0.54 $0.66 $0.78 $0.90 $1.01 $1.13 $1.25$0.49 $0.23 $0.35 $0.47 $0.58 $0.70 $0.82 $0.94 $1.06 $1.18$0.50 $0.15 $0.27 $0.39 $0.51 $0.63 $0.75 $0.87 $0.99 $1.11$0.51 $0.08 $0.20 $0.32 $0.44 $0.56 $0.68 $0.80 $0.91 $1.03$0.52 $0.01 $0.13 $0.25 $0.37 $0.48 $0.60 $0.72 $0.84 $0.96$0.53 ($0.06) $0.05 $0.17 $0.29 $0.41 $0.53 $0.65 $0.77 $0.89$0.54 ($0.14) ($0.02) $0.10 $0.22 $0.34 $0.46 $0.58 $0.70 $0.81$0.55 ($0.21) ($0.09) $0.03 $0.15 $0.27 $0.38 $0.50 $0.62 $0.74

RIN Price must and reinstated tax credit creating profitable picture for biodiesel.

SOYOIL vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE IN BIODIESELCrude oil price = $96 per bbl

$2.29 per gal 42 gals/buFixed cost diesel = $0.12 per gal

Crude oil driven price $2.41 per gal

Soy oil price = $0.48 per lb$3.50 per gal 7.3 lbs/gal

biodieselProcessing cost = $0.40 per gal

Capital cost = $0.15 per galTax credit = -$1.00 per gal

Soyoil based cost = $3.05 per galProfitability w/o RIN = -$0.65 per gal

RIN price = $0.95 per galRIN value (x 1.5) = $1.43

Profitability = $0.78




Based on EPA's Notice of Proposed Rule for 2013, Jan-31-2013.2013 CALENDAR YEAR RFS CALCULATIONS & COMPLIANCE DEFICIT

© PRX 2013, File PRX_RFS2_DisplayREV_Start.xls, May-10-13Item Fuel Categories RVO RFS Fuel Adjust RVO RIN

volumes of per volume energy check TypeRenewable Fuel EPA receiving value

NOPR ethanol biodieselbil gals bil gals pct pct bil gals bil gals

1 ONE. EPA starts with the Energy Act of 20072 EPA must use Act's Applicable Volume of Total Renewable Fuel 16.55

3 TWO. EPA Calculation of Total Renewable Fuel %4 EPA must use EIA Forecasts of Oct-2012 for 2013 volumes

5 Blended motor gasoline 133.706 Ethanol blended -12.85 Illustrative calculation7 Straight gasoline 120.85 9.63% 11.64

8 Blended diesel fuel 52.269 Biomass-based biodiesel blended -1.23 Illustrative calculation

10 Straight diesel fuel 51.03 9.63% 4.91

11 Total straight petroleum fuel 171.88 16.55 9.63% 16.55

12 THREE. EPA Calculation of Advanced Biofuel %13 Total straight petroleum fuel 171.88 Total Advanced 2.75 1.60% 2.7514 Total straight petroleum fuel 171.88 Biomass-based biodiesel 1.28 1.12% 1.925 D415 Total straight petroleum fuel 171.88 Cellulosic 0.014 0.008% 0.014 D316 Other Advanced 0.811 D517 2.750

HypotheticalRFS % Remainder

18 Straight gasoline 120.85 Conventional 11.42% 13.80 D6

E10 legal E10 legallimit limit

19 Blended motor gasoline 133.70 Ethanol blended 10% 95% 12.70Compliance

Deficit20 Conventional -1.10 D6

Line 15. EPA must waiver cellulosic RVO from 1.0 bil gals down to estimated production in 2013 (only 14 mil gal)Line 16. EPA proposes to shift the cellulosic reduction into category of "Other Advanced."Line 17. The 811 million gallons can be either biodiesel or sugarcane ethanol imports (which would displace corn ethanol).Line 19. The 133.70 billion gallons is forecast, but the actual could decline—but NOT the established percentages. This would mean that the E10 legal limit would also decline.




RENEWABLE FUEL USE & COMPLIANCE CALCULATIONS, 2012-2014

© PRX 2013, File PRX_RFS2_DisplayREV_Start.xls, May-10-13

Column1 2 4

Row Item Cal Cal Cal2012 2013 2014

bil gals bil gals bil galsEPA Fuel Volumes (from EIA, prev Oct or current STEO)

1 Gasoline 135.4 133.7 133.22 Diesel (excl jet, ocean) 50.7 52.3 52.03 less ethanol -13.3 -12.9 -12.84 less biodiesel -0.9 -1.2 -1.35 less exempt gasoline -4.9 0.0 0.06 less exempt diesel -2.3 0.0 0.07 Total Transportation Fuel Obligated Volume 164.7 171.9 171.28 Total Renewable Fuels Obligated Volume 15.2 16.55 18.159 Total Renewable Fuels Obligated Percent 9.23% 9.63% 10.60%

Blend Wall vs. Rollover RINs Supply (Current EIA STEO)10 Gasoline demand 132.4 133.0 133.211 Share receiving ethanol 95.09% 95.00% 96.00%12 Gasoline receiving ethanol 125.9 126.4 127.913 Ethanol inclusion rate 9.99% 10.00% 10.00%14 Ethanol blended 12.573 12.636 12.79115 D6 de-nested RIN requirement 13.200 13.800 14.40016 D6 RINs deficit/surplus -0.627 -1.164 -1.60917 Rollover D6 RIN Carryin 2.000 0.83618 Rollover D6 RIN Carryout 2.000 0.836 -0.772

(PRX Est. from EPA & Obligated Parties)




US CORN 2013-14 SUPPLY-DEMAND© PRX 2013, File PRX_B_US_BA_NewSEM, May-10-13

Crop Years (PRX) WASDELine Item 12-13 13-14 Change Comments 12-13

mil bu mil bu mil bu mil bu mil bu1 Carry-In 989 1009 20 7592 Production 10780 14000 3220 Assumes normal weather 141403 Subtotal 11769 15009 3240 148994 Imports 125 25 -100 Assumes Brazil drops off 255 Supply 11894 15034 3140 149246 Carry-Out 1009 2636 1628 20047 Disappearance 10885 12397 1512 12920

Farm Price, cts/bu 690 500 -190 470—— Ethanol Demand Details ——

8 Food/Industrial Use 5910 6247 337 62958a of which Ethanol Use 4500 4827 327 4850

mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal8c CORN ethanol prdn 12454 13406 952 USDA bushels only

8d SORGHUM ethanol prdn 241 249 8 USDA bushels only

8e CONV ethanol prdn 12695 13655 960 EIA 127828f CONV ethanol exports 640 500 -140 na8g CONV ethanol dmstc use 12050 13150 1100 na8h Advanced ethanol prdn 0 14 14 na8i Advanced ethanol imports 450 475 25 na8j Total ethanol dmstc use 12500 13639 1139 EIA 130088k Approx RVO (crop yr) 13600 14200 600 RVO = Renewable Volume Obligation

Calendar Years2013 2014

8l RVO (cal yr) 13800 14400 600 RVO = Renewable Volume Obligation

8m Approx E10 Blend Wall 12419 12791 372mil bu mil bu mil bu mil bu mil bu

9 Export Use 725 1200 475 US regains market share 130010 Feed & Residual Use 4250 4950 700 Residual up with good yield 5325

Assumes no substantial E15/E85 domestic blending




DOMESTIC ETHANOL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR CROP YEAR 12-13© PRX 2013, File PRX_BS_Assumptions, May-10-13

Days Months EIA EIA USDA PRX EPAper of Petroleum Supply Short-term Latest RenewableMonth Crop Monthly Energy Outlook Forecast Volume

Year (PSM) (STEO) WASDE ObligationApr-13 May-13 May-13 May-13 May-13

Monthly Annual- Monthly Annual- Annual- Annual- Annual-ized ized ized ized ized

mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal30 Sep-12 1029 12525 1029 1252531 Oct-12 1065 12537 1065 1253730 Nov-12 1058 12872 1058 1287231 Dec-12 1148 13516 1091 1284331 Jan-13 1047 12331 1047 1233128 Feb-13 951 12398 951 1239831 Mar-13 1054 1240630 Apr-13 1064 1294931 May-13 1093 1287230 Jun-13 1059 1289031 Jul-13 1097 12912 USDA PRX EPA RFS31 Aug-13 1173 13810 Formula Formula (crop yr calc)

YTD Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop YrAverage EIA Total Total Total Average

12696 12782 12782 12695 13600gal/bu gal/bu Milo mil bu Milo mil bu cal yr 20122.767 2.767 90.00 89.30 13200

Corn + milo mil bu Corn + milo mil bu Milo gal/bu Milo gal/bu cal yr 20134588 4619 2.600 2.700 13800

Milo mil gal Milo mil gal IncludesThe EIA's PSM reports monthly in barrels per day, and does not make projections. 234 241 Corn,The EIA's STEO projects in barrels per day per month, Corn mil gal Corn mil gal Sorghum, and actual months do not always agree with PSM. 12548 12454 & ImportedThe USDA adopts STEO gallons, converts sorghum bushels to gallons, Corn gal/bu Corn gal/bu Sugar then corn gallons to bushels, and then applies judgment. 2.700 2.767 EthanolPRX projects annual production of fuel ethanol in mil gals, Corn mil bu Corn mil bu then yield in bu/gal of corn required. 4647 4500

Adopt: Adopt:Situation 4600 4500EIA's STEO rose in May vs. Apr-2013, and USDA should be higher. Total mil gal Total mil gal Total mil galPRX chose to make no change—EIA may be overestimating exports. 12654 12694 13600




DOMESTIC ETHANOL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR CROP YEAR 13-14© PRX 2013, File PRX_BS_Assumptions, May-10-13

Days Months EIA EIA USDA PRX EPAper of Petroleum Supply Short-term Latest RenewableMonth Crop Monthly Energy Outlook Forecast Volume

Year (PSM) (STEO) WASDE ObligationApr-13 May-13 May-13 May-13 May-13

Monthly Annual- Monthly Annual- Annual- Annual- Annual-ized ized ized ized ized

mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal30 Sep-13 1153 1402431 Oct-13 1205 1418430 Nov-13 1168 1420731 Dec-13 1197 1408931 Jan-14 1198 1411028 Feb-14 1083 1411531 Mar-14 1206 1419830 Apr-14 1165 1417831 May-14 1209 1423730 Jun-14 1174 1428031 Jul-14 1215 14309 USDA PRX EPA RFS31 Aug-14 1208 14227 Formula Formula (crop yr calc)

YTD Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop YrAverage EIA Total Total Total Average

#DIV/0! 14181 14181 13655 14200gal/bu gal/bu Milo mil bu Milo mil bu cal yr 20132.777 2.777 120.00 97.00 13800

Corn + milo mil bu Corn + milo mil bu Milo gal/bu Milo gal/bu cal yr 2014#DIV/0! 5106 2.600 2.700 14400

Milo mil gal Milo mil gal IncludesThe EIA's PSM reports monthly in barrels per day, and does not make projections. 312 262 Corn,The EIA's STEO projects in barrels per day per month, Corn mil gal Corn mil gal Sorghum, and actual months do not always agree with PSM. 13869 13393 & ImportedThe USDA adopts STEO gallons, converts sorghum bushels to gallons, Corn gal/bu Corn gal/bu Sugar then corn gallons to bushels, and then applies judgment. 2.700 2.777 EthanolPRX projects annual production of fuel ethanol in mil gals, Corn mil bu Corn mil bu then yield in bu/gal of corn required. 5137 4823

Adopt: Adopt:Situation 4850 4827USDA increased from Baseline 4625 to 4850! Still below RFS. Total mil gal Total mil gal Total mil galPRX made no change in BS#32, above USDA gallons, but below RFS. 13407 13668 14200

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