provision of climate services in support of decision ... · farming decision type lead time ......

Provision of climate services in support of decision-making in the agriculture sector

(Case study: Agro-met Advisory System for Myanmar)

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Fifth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum (SWIOCOF-5)

Coral Strand Hotel, Seychelles

Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa & Asia (RIMES)

23 September, 2016

Feasibility Studies for Irrigation ProjectRimess | Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand | 2015

Presentation Outline

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RIMES Overview

Monsoon Forum

Farm School Program

Agro-met advisory expert system Myanmar

Conceptual framework System Components

Summary and Q & A


About RIMES

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Regional: 32 Member and Collaborating States in Asia and Africa

Integrated: links science with generators and users of early warning information

Multi-hazard: started with tsunami and earthquake, and expanded to include hydro-meteorological hazards

Early warning: with mandate to provide

early warning services for enhanced

preparedness for, responses to, and

mitigation of natural hazards

System: consists of regional technical

support unit, connected to national

and local systems


RIMES Member States

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Key Services

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Earthquake and tsunami services

Weather and climate services

Capacity building

Monsoon Forum

Improving data availability


Monsoon Forum & Farm School

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MONSOON FORUM OBJECTIVES

Ensure that forecast products, including their uncertainties and limitations, are understood by and communicated to users on a regular basis

Provide a platform for inter‐agency coordination of policies and programs for dealing with potential impacts of climate‐related hazards on seasonal basis

Encourage climate forecast applications for mitigating risks in various climate‐sensitive sectors;

Provide a platform for long‐term process of understanding risks posed by opportunities brought about by past, current, and future climate & adaptation options

Integration multi‐hazard risk information for integration into decision‐making

Provide a platform for identification of current and emerging needs of institutions involved in the forecast application process

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Monsoon Forum

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METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY GENERATES

FORECAST

METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY CONVENES

FORUM WITH INTERMEDIARIES &

USERS

USERS DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS & PREPARE RESPONSE

OPTIONS + RECOMMENDATIONS

FOR LONG TERM POLICY/INSTITUTIONAL

REFORMS

REPORTING BACK TO HOME AGENCIES AND

IMPLEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS

MONITOR & DOCUMENT THE SEASON AND GIVE

FEEDBACK TO METEOROLOGICAL

AGENCY

PROCESS

Feasibility Studies for Irrigation ProjectRimess | Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand | 2015 9

FORECAST APPLICATION FOR RISK MANAGEMENT IN AGRICULTURE (FARM) School


Farm School

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PROCESS

P1-1P1-1P1-1

Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level)

Farmer Groups

P1-2P1-2 P1-2

Farmer Groups

P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2

Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district)

Farmer GroupsFarmer Groups

Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups

F A R M E R SF A R M E R S

of farmers groups

Stage 4: dialogueStage 4: dialogue with farmers


CAPACITY BUILDING OF END-USERS IN FORECAST APPLICATION


SESAME: Specialized Expert System for Agro Meteorological

Early Warning


IntroductionLocation specific and requirement oriented Build on existing DMH capacities and evolve gradually to more sophisticated systems with steady capacity development of DMH officials as well as Department of AgriculturePilot locations in Dry Zone Involve agricultural extension workers very closely Involve interested farmers More user friendly graphics and web-based systemInnovative dissemination systems Regular farmer and extension workers feedback sessions – participatory process – traditional knowledge incorporation

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Key FeaturesCompletely Web based online platform

To generate and disseminate agro-met bulletins

Currently customized for two pilot sites of Dry Zone in Myanmar

Monywa and Nyuang Oo

Built on two weather models input datasets ECMWF Deterministic Forecast with 10 days lead time WRF Model data from RIMES with 3 days lead time

System is capable of ingesting these two datasets and generate 10 days or decadal Agro-Met bulletins and 3 days short SMS messages.

The System is presently hosted at, http://agro-v2.rimes.int/

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Farming decision type Lead time

Application of Pesticides/fertilizers/sowing/planting 10 days (spell [Dry/wet])

logistics (e.g. scheduling of planting/harvest operations) intra‐seasonal (within months)

tactical crop management (e.g. fertilizer/pesticide requirement for the crop) intra‐seasonal

crop type (e.g. wheat or chickpeas) or herd management seasonal (season to annual)

crop sequence (e.g. long or short fallows) or stocking rates Inter‐annual (0.5–2.0)

crop rotations (e.g. winter or summer crops) annual/bi‐annual (annual)

agricultural industry (e.g. crops or pastures) inter‐decadal

land‐use (e.g. agriculture or natural systems) multi‐decadal

land‐use and adaptation of current systems climate change


System Workflow: design and framework for Agro-met advisory system

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Input Data

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Crop Weather data Crop Management Practices data Agriculture input data (i.e. Irrigation & Fertilizers) Climate data (i.e. Rainfall, Temperature, RH & PET etc.)


System Components

Overview

Display dashboard for weather and bulletin board

Advisory

Compose and send bulletins

Data Panel

Administration panel for data and maps.

Climate Monitoring Panel

Monitoring panel for observed data

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System Components: User and User Roles

Two types of user roles are provided

Admin or Expert Users• Capable of editing, composing and sending Bulletins• Could overall manage the system

General Users• Could able to view and download the bulletins• And View and analyze the data available on the system

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Figure : Log‐in page for Admin Users (left) and General Users (right)


System Components: Overview Forecast Tab

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• After log in, user is able to see,

ECMWF forecast Gridded maps

Observed data gridded maps

• Parameters on overview panel

P. E.T

Accumulated rainfall

Mean Temperature

• Lower section shows the most recent advisories or bulletins issued by the system for pilot areas.

Monywa &

NyuangU


System Components: Overview Observation Monitoring Tab

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Observation

Displays the past averaged dekadal maps for, PET, Rainfall, and Mean temperature


System Components: 10-days Advisory

10 days Outlook

ECMWF 10 days outlook has 3 sections

Rainfall and PET 10 days forecast and previous

Dekadal advisories Advisory or agro-met bulletin

composition page.

Graph of parameters shows decadal(10 days) forecast parameters of accumulated rainfall(mm) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET mm)

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Forecast decadal

rainfall (mm)


System Components: 10-days Advisory

Other ECMWF parameters Tmax, Tmin and Tavg. are extracted and shown for current decad(10 Days).

Also the current and previous spells values are also displayed in View advisory section

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System Components: Bulletin Agro-met bulletin includes rainfall and other derived agro-met parameters from ECMWF forecast.Also generate automatically a advisory of 10 days outlook based on these parameters

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Sample Decadal Agro-Met Bulletin

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System Components: Advisory

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Create Advisory section allows expert users to create and disseminate 10 days or decadal agro-met bulletinBulletin could be generated as pdf and attached to the email automatically.


System Components: Advisory

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• WRF Model forecast from RIMES is used for generating short SMS messages with 3 days lead time. Mostly Rainfall, Wind Speed Temperature Min and Max are extracted.

• System provide utility to send short SMS based on three days forecast.

SMS Alert!

Temp will rise by 6 deg C above Threshold in next 24 hrs.

“PROTECT YOUR GRAPES FROM EXCESSIVE HEAT”

SMS


System Components: Data Panel

Add Crop: To add crop and location informationCrop List: View current crop existing in the system

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Adding and Updating Crop:

Add Crop Calendar Data View Crop Calendar

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Adding and Updating Crop:

Edit Crop Calendar Data



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Adding and Updating Crop Advisory:

Add Crop Advisory DataEdit Crop Advisory



Add Receiver

This section enables Admin or expert users to Update the general users or farmers database who will receive SMS and Bulletin.

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System Components: Climate Monitoring Panel

Have two sectionObserved data

monitoring Analysis for

Forecast verification

Observation Monitoring section allows user to plot historical data to monitor trend and change or variation.

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Dissemination Process

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Standard procedure of flow of information from DMH to farmers and feedback mechanism (Technical assistance: RIMES) through a continuous engagement process


Training

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Training to stakeholders at Nyuang Oo on 7th September 2015 Training to stakeholder at Monywa on 8th September 2015

Training on development of tool at RIMES Office Training to DMH Officers at DMH office


System Components: Feedback

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This section allows user to provide feedback in regards to forecast performance or if any error encountered in the system.


System Components: Feedback

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Forecast dissemination and feedback mechanism through social media


Integration with other systems

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Agro-ecological Zoningfor Myanmar


Up-scaling the program

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System will be implemented in all agro-ecological zones of Myanmar in successive phase of project

A mobile application development underway to extend the reach of the tool to most users


Replication: Tamil Nadu AGRO advisory System

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http://tnagro.rimes.int/

• In collaboration with Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission (TNSPC) and Department of Agriculture

• Interface system to use 3-days and 10-days weather forecast from India Meteorological Department IMD) after testing of prototype; and other sources for agriculture planning


Key Features: TN Agro

Completely Web based online platform To generate and disseminate agro-met bulletins

Currentely customized for Nine pilot sites in Tamil Nadu

1. Tiruvarur 6. Needamangalam 2. Kudavasal 7. Muthupettai3. Valangaiman 8. Mannargudi 4. Pandavaiyar Head 9. Nannilam5. Thiruthuraipoondi

System is capable of ingesting weather forecast data at various timescales and generate Agro-Met bulletins.System prototype has been developed and provided to Department of Agriculture for testing purpose.

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Figure : Districts in Tamil Nadu

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