PROVIDING MORE USEFUL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION

TO OUR CUSTOMERS

Mary-Beth Schreck

NWS Wichita, KS

Current Information• Data we ingest:

• Greenness (satellite derived)

• Fuels status

• Data we disseminate• Rangeland Fire Danger

Index (RFD)• Hazardous Weather

Outlook (HWO)• Fire Weather Forecast

(FWF)• Fire Weather

Watch/Red Flag Warning (RFW)

Goals/Objectives• Better represent reality temporally and

spatially:• RFD:

• County by county critical fuels• Uses binned, discontinuous function (empirically)

• GFDI• Express fire danger continuously in GFE temporally

and spatially

• Feed info. directly into HWO• Become a surrogate for the RFD?• Have as an option for RFW criteria?

Benefits

• Avoid Greenness Issues• “Point and Click” resolution (no

discontinuities at county borders)

• Hourly indices; available for more than 1st or 2nd period (3 days worth?)

• Same output (low to extreme) for fire danger

• Minimal training required

Grassland Fire Danger Index - GFDI

• FDI integrates effect on difficulty of suppression of fire due to:

• Temperature (T ºC)

• Relative Humidity (RH %)

• Wind Speed (V km/h) (10 m, 10 min average)

• Curing (C %))*0.09577 -*0.2789 *0.01201 )-(100*0.004096 - (0.00925410^ FDI 1.536 RHVTC

GFDI Output

• The Descriptive Fire Danger Rating system for Public Information is:

• Low FDI of 0-2• Moderate FDI of 3-7• High FDI of 8-20• Very High FDI of 20-49• Extreme FDI of 50+

Australian Formula• Simple mathematically

• 4 main parameters: T, wind, RH, curing• Not a discontinuous/binned function• Relies on a curing term

• Does not rely on snow/rain/clouds• We will need to obtain this data

• Outreach• Fire departments• Emergency Managers• Farmers?• Customers such as Tallgrass Prairie Preserve

• Input can be entered into a web form and imported into GFE automatically

How do we attract observers?• 6 locations minimum per CWA • Who

• KNOWN reliable observers/enthusiastic customers• NWS Employee• Coop Observers• Fire Departments• Emergency Managers• Farmers• Spotters

• Training via curing guide (being developed)• Data into GFE via web form? • Outreach opportunities

• Local/county fire department meetings• KEMA/NEMA meetings• Other customers

Curing Guide

Curing Guide

Potential Output

• GFE Graphics• HWO• RFD?

• A more representative value for the RFD product

• A change that is transparent to the customer

• Text by county? (If deemed useful based on demand)

GFE Output (70% Curing)

In Central KS:Winds ~ 30G40KT70% curingRH = 40%Temp. ~ 68-70 degrees FYields High criteria

In Southeast KS:Winds ~ 17 kts70% curingRH = 50%Temp 73-74 degrees FYields Moderate criteria

GFE Output (85% Curing)

In Central KS:Winds ~ 30G40KT85% curingRH = 40%Temp. ~ 68-70 degrees FYields Very High criteria

In Southeast KS:Winds ~ 17 kts85% curingRH = 50%Temp 73-74 degrees FYields High criteria

GFE Output (100% Curing)

In Central KS:•Winds ~ 30G40KT•100% curing•RH = 40%•Temp. ~ 68-70 degrees F•Yields Extreme criteriaIn Southeast KS:•Winds ~ 17 kts•100% curing•RH = 50%•Temp 73-74 degrees F•Yields High criteria