prototype 1: status, contents and results. cross compliance assessment tool introduction and...
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Prototype 1: status, contents and results
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Introduction and demonstration of Prototype1
(PT1) tool• Overall contents• Overview of current PT1 tool• Calculation of regional compliance levels • Core models: CAPRI – MITERRA• Input data on cross compliance (legal) implementation• Output:
– Environmental and economic impacts per scenario and differences between scenarios
– Indirect impacts on biodiversity per scenario and differences between scenarios (derived from environmental and land use changes)
– Potential effects of individual and combined measures on Biodiversity and landscape (expert judgement of the measure texts per MS/region).
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
• All core model (CAPRI and Miterra) components with impact assessments (for 6 compliance level scenarios)
• Quantitative environmental, economic impacts of Nitrate and Animal registration Directives computed with Miterra-Capri model chain (19 environmental and ca. 50 economic impact indicators)
• Qualitative impacts of Nitrate Directive and Animal registration directives on intensity of land use (post-model calculation);
• Qualitative potential effectiveness (0/1/2/3) for biodiversity and landscape (difference in) for 17 SMR measures (Birds, Habitat, Nitrate dir) and 5 GAEC issues national and regional implementations (short names).
Overall contents of current PT1 tool
input and output
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
CCAT manager
Overview of PT1 tool
CCAT GISviewer
CAPRI CCAT data explorer
Computation of absolute and
relative differences
Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files)
Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance
Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios
Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues)
Miterra
Data per scenario
Stat. data
Short name data
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
A B C D region
degree of compliance
Full compliance
regional surface
Compliance gap
Voluntary compliance level
90%
100%
80%
60%
30%0%
Compliance and scenarios
Baseline estimates of compliance(2005)
simulated levels of compliance
75%
50%
50%
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Scenarios
There are 6 compliance scenarios included in PT1: 0) Baseline compliance in 2005: estimated level,
differs per Nuts 2 region (see box 1)1) 50% gap closure: halve way between 2005
baseline and 100% compliance2) 0% compliance: voluntary level, 0% =
minimum level, but is often higher 3) 50% compliance: 50% = minimum level4) 75% compliance: 75% = minimum level5) 100% compliance: full compliance
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Estimated degree of compliance
of baseline (2005)
1) Take degree of compliance at member state level from other projects (data available from IEEP and Cross Compliance project)
2) Estimate upper and lower bound compliance level (based on national estimates
3) Estimate #farms, #livestock, #hectares at high risk of non-compliance
4) Spatial distribution of groups of farms (hectares, animals) at high risk over NVZ (relative land use in-/outside)
5) Calculate regional compliance rates based on 1), 2), 3) and 4).
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Compliance level estimates national level Nitrate Directive
(I)Country % of breaches (IEEP evaluation project)
Compliance rates (%)(IEEP evaluation project)
Compliance rates (%)(Cross Compliance-project)
Compliance rates (%)CCAT Estimates for high risk farm group
Austria 5.5 90 n.a. 60
Belgium (F) 0.2 100 n.a. 60
Belgium (W) 4.7 100 n.a. 60
Bulgaria n.i. 40
Cyprus n.i. 40
Czech Republic n.i. 40
Denmark 1.2 100 n.a. 60
Estonia n.i. 40
Finland 24.7 80 n.a. 40
France 9.7 90 70 50
Germany 8.3 90 85 50
Greece n/a n.a. 40
Hungary n.i. 40
Italy 3.4 100 65 50
Ireland n.i. n.a. 50
Latvia n.i. 40
Lithuania n.i. 40
… … … … …
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Identifying high risk farm group?
Sub-obligations Nitrate Directive
Characteristics farms at higher risk of non-
compliance
Data + estimation of higher risk group
Balanced N-fertilizer application
Animal N-balance >170 kg N/ha in NVZ
N-balance: FSS data per (sectoral) farm group per Nuts2 (on animal type, number, land use types, UAA) & GAINS animal N-excretion factors (Nuts2)
Maximum N-manure application (< 170 kg N/ ha) in NVZ
Animal N-balance >170 kg N/ha in NVZ
N-balance: FSS data per sectoral farm group per Nuts2 (on animal type, number, land use types, UAA) & GAINS animal N-excretion factors (Nuts2)
Limitation to fertilizer application on steeply sloping grounds
All farmland in NVZ in slopy land (>5% slope)
Corine Land cover (arable+grassland) & Digital elevation model
Growing winter crops (maintain vegetation cover during rainy periods)
Farms with high share of cropping land
FSS land use per sectoral farm type per Nuts2
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Estimating % farms, animals, hectares non-compliant in NVZ
Total farm population
Average national compliance rate (IEEP, CC projects)
High risk of non-compliance:
- N balance>170 kg/ha
-Land slopy
-…
Upper bound compliance rate
Lower bound compliance rate
Low risk of non-compliance:
- N balance < 170 kg/ha
- No slopy land
-…
Total farm population
High risk of non-compliance:
- N balance>170 kg/ha
-Land slopy
-…
Low risk of non-compliance:
- N balance < 170 kg/ha
- No slopy land
-…
NUTS2
NVZ-NUTS2
Compliance rates: national estimates
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Estimation compliance level results for Nitrate Directive
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
CCAT manager
Overview of PT1 tool
CCAT GISviewer
CAPRI CCAT data explorer
Computation of absolute and
relative differences
Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files)
Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance
Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios
Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues)
Miterra
Data per scenario
Stat. data
Short name data
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Core models
• CAPRI (market response model)• MITERRA EUROPE Extended (simple
meta-model)
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
CAPRI output used as input in environmental models
Cross compliance obligations
Changes in management
Costs of compliance
CAPRI: Market response 1) Changes in cropping
shares 2) Change in livestock
type/number
MITERRA: emissions to: 1) Water
2) Air3) Soil
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
CCAT manager
Overview of PT1 tool
CCAT GISviewer
CAPRI CCAT data explorer
Computation of absolute and
relative differences
Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files)
Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance
Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios
Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues)
Miterra
Data per scenario
Stat. data
Short name data
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Short name data
• Per country/region legal implementation texts for all SMR (excl. new MS) and GAECs (all MS) was collected– CIFAS project– Gaps filled
• Result: database with fields:– General description of SMR/GAEC (Level 1)– Specific description of measure (Level 2)– Specific description of management obligation (farmer) (Level 3)– Region code (National, Nuts 1, Nuts 2)– Land use type affected– Sensitive area affected– Impact fields (air, water, etc.)– Effectiveness score in relation to landscape and biodiversity (see
next presentation)
Cross Compliance Assessment Tool
Impact assessment results
• Results economic assessments (Markus Kempen)
• Results environmental assessments (Jan-Peter Lesschen)
• Results biodiversity and landscape assessments (Juan Oñate)
After break:• Demo of prototype 1 (Foppe Bouma)