prospects for decarbonizing california industry through ... · 2 emissions calculated @ 119...

© 2019 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.w w w . e p r i . c o m

Perry StephensPrincipal Technical LeaderSreenidhi KrishnamoorthyEngineer/Scientist III

EPRI – Electrification for Customer Productivity

July 8, 2019

Prospects for Decarbonizing California Industry Through ElectrificationThe Role of the Industrial Sector in Meeting California’s Carbon Neutrality Goals

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© 2019 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.w w w . e p r i . c o m2

Agenda

Overview of Project Approach Data Sources Data Analytics

– Industry Targeting and Opportunity Model– Energy Analysis and Results– Cost Analysis and Results Emerging Technologies Discussion Take Aways



EPRI’s Electrification Potential Study Approach Technical and Economic potential of

manufacturing industries in CA was studied

Industrial classification based on NAICS code was used

Technologies mapped to industrial uses based on their relevance and application

Electrification costs are calculated based on EPRI’s technology cost and consumption data

EPRI Research: Technology cost data

Economic Potential Assessment

Census: County-level distribution of

industrial facilities

DEP, EPA: CO2

Emissions per industry in PA

EPRI Research: Technology energy consumption and

conversion percents

EPRI Research: Mapping electric technologies to

industries

Technical Potential Assessment

EPRI US-REGEN: Industry-level Energy

consumption data for CA

US DoE: Industrial Energy Process Flows



Data Collected from External Sources Census Data: Number of enterprises by California counties and NAICS code

– Focused specifically on small, medium, and large enterprises, while excluding micro enterprises (those employing less that 10 people)

California Air Resources Board (ARB) : Emissions of CO2– ARB maintains an annual GHG inventory for California

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Major Facilities that are emitters of CO2– EPA’s F.L.I.G.H.T. data tool provides list of facilities in each industry that are emitters of CO2– Covers nearly 80% of emitters in each industry at state-level

US DoE: Final energy consumption for each industry by fuel type – Sankey Diagrams showing process and non-process energy for Steam and Fossil Fuel



Data from EPRI Research Annual Energy Consumption in California by NAICS code

– EPRI’s US-REGEN model provides regional estimates for TBTUs of energy consumed for each industry

Technology Mapping– Each electrification technology is mapped to one or more industries– Conversion percentage is determined based on final energy consumption and knowledge of end-uses

Technology Cost– EPRI’s electrification team has researched energy consumption and costs of typical electric end-use

equipment



0

100

200

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400

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800

900

1,000

AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT DC DE FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT WA WI WV WY

Valu

e of

Pro

duct

ion

Bulk chemicals Coal mining Refining Biofuel (ethanol) production Iron and steel (primary and secondary)

Food Paper pulp and wood Cement Aluminum Specialized Manufacturing

Other manufacturing Construction Agriculture Mining (non-energy products)

Industrial Structure in U.S. (from IMPLAN)

California has the highest industrial output in the U.S.



California Industrial Electrification Opportunity

Natural gas energy used by industrial segment

Six industries shown here capture 80% share of fossil fuel used by California industry

Note: EPRI Analysis assumes petroleum industry emissions reductions (decarbonization) will occur primarily through demand reduction resulting from electrification of the transportation sector.

EPRI’s US Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (REGEN) model



County-level distribution of California’s major manufacturing industriesNumber of Establishments

(Data Source: 2016 County Business Patterns, U.S. Census)

Distribution of industrial establishments vary across California counties by location and density count

- Los Angeles County has the most industrial activity.

- Central Sierra and parts of Northern California have the least industrial activity.

- Accurate densities are essential to planning electrical infrastructure needs.



Industrial Fossil-Fuel Energy Use and Emissions in California

Source: 1. EPRI’s US Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (REGEN) model

Industry Annual Energy Consumed from Fossil Fuel (TBtu)

Annual CO2 emissions (MMT CO2)

Petroleum Production/ Distribution/ Refining

380 23

Chemicals and Plastics 131 6.3

Food and Beverage 102 3.3

Forest Products and Agriculture 65 1.5

Wood, Pulp and Paper 48 Unavailable

Primary Metals 42 0.5

Fabricated Metals and Machinery 10 0.5

Stone, Clay, Cement and Glass 7 0.4

Transportation Equipment 5 0.3

Electronics 3 0.2

EPRI Estimates top 6 industrial sectors emit over 35 MMT CO2



Adoption Assumptions Influence Electrification Potential

Sector Fuel Use Category

Electrification Share

Assumptions or Data source used

AgricultureHeat 0%

No ElectrificationOther 0%

Industrial

Boiler 98% LTES Commercial Water Heating

Motion 100% Very high adoption

Heat 60% EPRI Assumption

Chemicals 0%

No electrificationOther 0%

Solvents 0%

Space Heat 80% LTES Commercial Space Heating

Petroleum

Boiler

90% Petroleum use reductionHeat

Other

Fuel Use Category Electrification Share

Assumptions or Data source used

Agriculture 15%TAC Suggestion

Aviation 10%

Construction and Mining 0%

Forklift 100%

Aggressive adoption assumedGround Support Equipment 100%

Lawn and Garden 100%

Marine 10% TAC Suggestion

Marine (port) 100% Aggressive adoption assumed

Other non-road 0%

Rail 0%

Rail (yard) 100% Aggressive adoption assumed

Recreational Equipment 0%

Recreational Marine 25% TAC Suggestion

Refrigeration 100% Aggressive adoption assumed

Terminal Tractor 100% Aggressive adoption assumed

Truck apu 100% Aggressive adoption assumed

2050 Adoption Rates for Agriculture, Industrial & Petroleum Sectors 2050 Adoption Rates For Non-Road Transportation Fuel Use Categories



Determination of Fossil Energy Conversion PotentialNew electricity energy use was calculated based on: Final Energy Consumption values (fraction of primary energy source) from DoE’s

Manufacturing Energy Sankey Flowcharts

EPRI’s SME experience was utilized to map process and non-process energy to end uses



Electrification Technologies by Energy Uses

Names of Energy Consuming Processes Technologies that can be used to electrify

Process Heating and other heating (Fossil Fuel) Infrared Heating, Resistance Heating,

Resistance Melting, Ultraviolet Curing,

Microwave Heating, Radio Frequency Heating,

Induction Heating/ Hardening, Induction Melting,

Electric Arc Furnace, Industrial Heat Pumps*(Mapping of exact technologies depends on the industry)

Process Heating and other heating (Steam) Electrode Boiler, Medium Voltage Electric Boiler, Indirect Induction

Process Cooling (Steam and Fossil Fuel) Advanced RefrigerationMachine Drive (Steam and Fossil Fuel) VFD Motor



Conversion Potentials by Industry and Technology

Resistance Heating

Resistance Melting

Infrared and Microwave Heating

Radio Frequency Heating

Induction Heating

Induction Melting

Electric Arc Furnace

Electrode Boiler

Resistance Boiler

VFD Motor

Industrial Heat Pumps

Advanced Membrane

Electrochemical Ultraviolet Curing

Advanced Refrigeration

Chemicals and Plastics

12% 3% 4% 40% 1% 10% 12% 9% 7% 2%

Food and Beverage

6% 12% 6% 6% 54% 3% 10% 5%

Forestry and Agriculture

10% 5% 5% 80%

Primary Metals

13% 17% 13% 17% 10% 2% 17% 9%

Wood, Pulp and Paper

73% 11% 2%

Petroleum Refining, Production & Distribution

19% 19% 18% 5% 15% 15% 8% 1%

Several technologies are available to achieve decarbonization through electrification



Electricity Requirement for Manufacturing Firms in California after Electrification

Industry Realistic Conversion Potential of Fossil Fuel Energy

New Electricity Requirement (Annual, billion kWh)

Primary Metals 45% 2.3

Chemicals and Plastics 30% 4.6

Petroleum Production/ Distribution/ Refining 40% 1.9

Stone, Clay, Cement and Glass 50% 0.4

Food and Beverage 35% 4.2

Wood, Pulp and Paper 10% 0.7

Forest Products and Agriculture 50% 4.1

Fabricated Metals and Machinery 50% 0.6

Transportation Equipment 30% 0.2

Computers and Electronics 5% 0.03

Electrification of manufacturing industries trigger an additional annual electricity requirement of nearly 20 billion kWh across California State

Requirement for Petroleum Industry was de-rated by 90% assuming that decarbonization will occur primarily through demand reduction



Electrification Costs and Emissions

Industry Estimated Electrification Costs for CA State Potential CO2 Emissions (MMT CO2/yr)

Petroleum Prod./Dist./Refining $0.4 billion 0.59

Chemicals and Plastics $1.7 billion 1.40

Forest Products and Agriculture $4.2 billion 1.22

Primary Metals $1.1 billion 0.71

Food and Beverage $2.3 billion 1.25

Wood, Pulp and Paper $2.0 billion 0.22

Fabricated Metals & Machinery $0.23 billion 0.17

Stone, Clay, Cement & Glass $0.18 billion 0.12

Transportation Equipment $0.10 billion 0.06

TOTAL $12.2 billion 5.74

Based on EPRI’s data for “typical” electric equipment capacity and it’s upfront costs Capital, Installation and Maintenance costs are considered CO2 emissions calculated @ 119 lb/MMBtu for natural gas & 0.3 tons/MWh for electricity

California technical potential to reduce industrial CO2 emissions by 62.5% with existing technologies at a cost of $1,276 per ton.



Emerging Technologies



Fossil Energy Contribution to Industrial Cost of Production

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Energy Cost percentage of Value Added (assumes $4.00 per MMBtu)

Energy Cost percentage of Value Added



Non-Energy Drivers (Benefits) Lean Manufacturing

– Productivity– Product Quality (Scrap & Repair)– Delivery– Process Flexibility– Inventory– Up-time

Labor Cost Raw Material Costs Capital (Equipment & Inventory) MRO, Consumables & Tooling Costs Product Features & New Products Health & Safety Environmental Brand Enhancement



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C O M M E R C I A L B U I L D I N G S N O N - R O A D T R A N S P O R T A T I O N

U V D U C T & S U R F A C E

S T E R I L I Z A T I O N

N E X T G E N E R A T I O N

H E A T P U M P

O Z O N E M E D W . T .

P O L Y M E R B E A D L A U N D R Y

O . R . H E A T R E C O V E R Y

C H I L L E R

C L I N I C A L G A S A D V A N C E D M E M B R A N E

S E P A R A T I O N

R O B O T I C S U R G E R Y

H E A T P U M P W A T E R

H E A T I N G

A I R S O U R C E H E A T P U M P

I N D U C T I O N C O O K T O P

R O B O T I C L A W N

M O W E R

M I C R O W A V E

P O D F A R M S

U V L E D & E L E C T R O -C O A G U L A T I O N W W T

G R O U N D S U P P O R T

E Q U I P M E N T

I N F R A R E D C O N V E C T I O N

O V E N

C O N D U C T I V E C O N C R E T E

A D D I T I V E M A N U F A C T U R I N G

L O W C H A R G E A M M O N I A

R E F R I G E R A T I O N

A U T O C L A V E S

E L E C T R I C N O N - R O A D V E H I C L E S

R O B O T I CD E L I V E R Y

I N V E H I C L E C O O K I N G

H E A T E D D R I V E W A Y

P L A S M A P Y R O L Y S I S

E V C H A R G I N G

R E S T A U R A N T R O B O T I C S

H . R . C H I L L E R H V A C / H . W .

A I O V E N S

O N - L I N E W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T

B R E W E R Y E L E C T R I F I C A T I O N

C A P A C I T I V E D I D E S A L I N I Z A T I O N

E L E C T R I C P O R T S E T R U

H U M A N T R A N S P O R T

D R O N E S

E L E C T R I C A I R P L A N E S

E L E C T R I C W A T E R C R A F T S

E L E C T R I C F A R M E Q U I P M E N T

EPRI

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S/P

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F E R R O U S M E T A L S N O N - F E R R O U S M E T A L S

I N D I R E C T I N D U C T I O N

P O W E R 2 H E A TP O W E R 2

H Y D R O G E N

P O W E R 2 C H E M I C A L S

G R A P H E N E P R O D U C T I O N

M A G N E T I C F I E L D I N D U C T I O N P R O C

B I O S Y N T H E T I C F I B E R S

A D V A N C E D M E M B R A N E

S E P A R A T I O N

A D V A N C E D P R O C E S S

C O N T R O L S

H E A T R E C O V E R Y

H E A T P U M P S

C H P

E L E C T R O D E B O I L E R S

I N D U C T I O N L A D L E

P R E H E A T

I N D U C T I O N M E L T I N G

D I R E C T R E D U C T I O NI R O N + E A F

H Y D R O G E N 2 I R O N

E L E C T R O -C O A G U L A T I O N

W W T

G O L D P L A T E D I R R E F L E C T O R S

I N F R A R E D H E A T I N G / C U R I N G

I N D U C T I O N H E A T I N G / H A R D E N I N G

A D D I T I V E M A N U F A C T U R I N G

G L I D I N G A R C P L A S M A

R E F O R M I N G

P L A S M A O X I D A T I O N

C A R B O N F I B E R

E L E C T R I C N O N - R O A D V E H I C L E S

R O B O T I C S

I N E R T A N O D E A L U M I N U M S M E L T I N G

I S O T H E R M A L M E L T I N G

F L A S H B A I N I T E I N D U C T I O N

E L E C T R O L Y T I C S M E L T I N G

U L T R A F A S T B O R I D I N G

EPRI

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O R G A N I C R A N K I N E C Y C L E



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U V S T E R I L I Z A T I O N

E L E C T R I C R E S I S T A N C E

C O O K I N G

I N D U C T I O N C O O K I N G

I R C U R I N G C O N C R E T E

S T R U C T U R E S

I R / R E S I S T A N C E C O N V E C T I V E

B A K I N G

H I G H C A P A C I T Y L I F T V E H I C L E S

N O N - R O A D T R A N S P O R T A T I O N ( L I F T S / T R A C T O R S )

R E S I S T A N C E C O N V E C T I O N

D R Y I N G

H Y D R O G E N F U E L C E L L T R A C T O R

S Y N T H E T I C F O O D P R O D U C T I O M

R F G R A I N / B I O M A S S

D R Y I N G

E L E C T R I C I R R I G A T I O N

R O B O T I C L I V E S T O C K /D A I R Y M G T .

I N D U S T R I A L H E A T

P U M P / C H P A Q U A C U L T U R E

I N D O O R F O O D P R O D U C T I O N

S T O N E C R U S H I N G

R O B O T I C H A R V E S T I N G

A L L E L E C T R I C T R A C T O R

I R / R F D R Y I N G ( P O C K E T )

E L E C T R O D E B O I L E R S

S Y N G A S & H Y D R O G E N K I L N F U E L

V F D M I L L D R I V E S

G O L D P L A T E D I R R E F L E C T O R S

E L E C T R O -C O A G U L A T I

O N W W T

e T R U

L O W C H A R G E A M M O N I A P R O C E S S

C O O L I N G C O 2 C U R E D C O N C R E T E



Key Findings



Summary of Key Take-Aways California has the largest industrial footprint of any state in the US. Six California industries account for 80 percent of the state’s fossil fuel consumption

totaling an estimated 768 Tbtu of electrification opportunity. Industrial process heating end-used are highly concentrated in specific coastal

regions including Los Angeles and surrounding counties and San Francisco Bay area counties. Agriculture and forestry related industries are more broadly dispersed with concentrations in the central valley and costal forests.

Petroleum industry emissions, the state’s largest, are expected to decline inversely proportional to the EV adoption. Electrification in non-road transportation would further reduce refinery related carbon emissions.

A handful of market-ready technologies represent the bulk of near term electrification potential totaling an estimated 20 TWh of additional electrical demand at an estimated cost to California industry of $ 12.2 Billion resulting in 5.74MMT CO2

Economic considerations will drive the need to develop competitive emerging electric technologies to supplant current fossil fuel fired processes in targeted industries.



Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity


prospects for decarbonizing california industry through ... · 2 emissions calculated @ 119...

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