proposition 8 post-election california voter survey

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Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey Prepared by David Binder Research Conducted November 6 th - 16 th , 2008

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Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey. Prepared by David Binder Research. Conducted November 6 th - 16 th , 2008. Research Methodology. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Proposition 8Post-Election California Voter Survey

Prepared by David Binder Research

Conducted November 6th - 16th, 2008

Page 2: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Research Methodology

Page 3: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

800 voters living in California who voted in the November 2008 election, plus an additional oversample of 266 Asian, Latino, and African American voters.

Methodology

Respondents

Dates Poll was conducted November 6th to 16th, 2008.

Margin of Error

Margin of error: 3.0%

3

Page 4: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

SummaryFindings

4

Page 5: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Summary Findings: Overall

OverallResults

• Proposition 8 was passed on November 4, 2008 by a margin of 52% to 48% by a margin of about 600,000 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast.

• Two areas of the state stood out: The Central Valley counties overwhelmingly supported the measure by 71%-29%, while the more populous Bay Area was strongly opposed (39%-61%).

However, the Southern California counties which comprise 55% of the total vote supported Prop 8 by 54% to 46%. In Los Angeles County, 69% voted for Barack Obama for President, but slightly less than 50% voted no on Proposition 8 – a gap of 19 percentage points (compared to a 13 point differential statewide).

5

Page 6: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Summary Findings: Demographics

Resultsby

Subgroup

• Political ideology was the factor that corresponded most highly to the Proposition 8 vote, with 22% of liberals voting yes on 8, compared to 51% of moderates and 82% of conservatives.

• Election day exit polls that showed 70% of African American voters supporting Proposition 8 appear incorrect. Our survey shows 58% of Blacks voting for 8. Precincts in Southern California’s most concentrated areas of African American voters – Carson and Compton – show 65% support for Prop 8. Predominately African American precincts in other areas of LA County and in San Francisco showed support in the low-to-mid 50 percent range.

• The factor next most important in determining vote on Prop 8, after ideology, was religion, with voters who worship regularly being strongly more likely to support Prop 8, by a 70% to 30%, while those who worship less often voted 38% to 62% against Prop 8.

Blacks and Latinos who worship less than once a week opposed Prop 8.

6

Page 7: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Summary Findings: Reasons for Vote and Influencers

Reasonsfor

Vote

• Supporters of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that marriage is between a man and a woman.

• Secondarily, Prop 8 supporters disclosed religious reasons as motive for their support.

• Opponents of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that same sex marriage was an issue of civil rights and equal rights, as well as their view that everyone should have the freedom to marry the person of their choosing.

• Most voters stated they were most influenced by discussions with friends, family and coworkers. This pool of voters opposed Proposition 8.

• About one-quarter said they had a strong personal opinion on the issue that was not swayed by other communications. This pool voted yes.

• About 8% said they were swayed by the church. This pool voted yes by 94% to 6%.

7

Influ-encers

Page 8: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Summary Findings: Communications

TV ads• Among the yes on 8 ads, the message that stood out was that Prop 8

will cause the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.

• Among the no on 8 ads, most saw the ad featuring Senator Dianne Feinstein.

• The ads with Feinstein and Sam and Julia Thoron were statistically more likely to cause a no vote than were other ads. The History ad narrated by Samuel L. Jackson was also convincing.

• Vast majority of voters said mail and telephone calls were not influential.

• Only 5% visited official campaign websites, but those who visited the no on 8 website rated it more influential than visitors to the yes site.

• About 10% said they received information from a church, and 49% felt this information was convincing – a much higher proportion than other sources, such as labor unions, newspaper editorials and television ads.

8

OtherCommu-nicationsources

Page 9: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Summary Findings: Messaging

Messa-ging

• Only about 17% of yes on 8 voters could name something tangible that could cause them to change their mind and support same sex marriage, including:

• Call marriage by another name• Ensure that same sex marriage will not be taught in schools• Ensure that churches will not be forced to perform same sex

marriages• Approval, or lack of formal opposition, from churches or religious

leaders

9

Page 10: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Election Results

Page 11: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

California Election ResultsNovember 4, 2008

President

Obama 8,274,473 61.1%

McCain 5,011,781 37.0%

Prop 8

No 6,401,482 47.7%

Yes 7,001,084 52.3%

Gap between Obama vote and No on 8 vote was 1.8 million, or 14%

Page 12: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

12

Prop 8 vs Obama

Prop 8 Map – 52% Yes vs 48% No Presidential Vote -- 61% Obama vs 37% McCain

Page 13: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

13

Other Southern California: Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, VenturaCentral Valley: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, TulareSacramento / Tahoe: Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, YoloBay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, SonomaCentral Coast: Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa CruzInland / Mountains / Other: Alpine, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity,. Tuolumne, Yuba

LA County had 19% difference between vote for Obama and vote against Prop 8

Region % Obama % No on 8 % Obama – Prop 8

LA County 69 50 19

San Diego County 54 46 8

Other Southern California 51 40 11

Central Valley 46 29 17

Sacramento / Tahoe Region 55 43 12

Bay Area 74 61 13

Central Coast 64 56 8

Inland / Mountains / Other 46 40 6

Total 61 48 13

Page 14: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

14

5

5

2

5

1

2

63

0

1

3

1

4

4

4

Prop 1A

Prop 2

Prop 3

Prop 4

Prop 5

Prop 6

Prop 7

Prop 8

Prop 9

Prop 10

Prop 11

Prop 12

All equally

None of them

Don't know

Which one of the 12 state propositions on the November 4 th ballot were you most interested in?

Prop 8 generated far more interest than any other state proposition

Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008

Page 15: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

15

74

18

5

3

0

59

22

10

7

2

Very Important

Somewhat Important

Not too important

Not at all important

Don't know

Yes Voters No Voters

The outcome of Prop 8 was more important to Yes voters than No voters

As you may know, Proposition 8 passed. How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 8?

% Very Important

• Evangelical Christians: 77% (vs all others: 61%)• Women: 69% (vs Men: 60%)• Latinos: 67%• Overall: 65%• Whites: 64%

Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008

Page 16: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Vote by Subgroups

Page 17: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

54

49

0 50

Men

Women

Prop 8 by gender

% voting yes

17

Page 18: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

52

60

50

47

0 50

Men, not parents

Men, parents

Women, not parents

Women, parents

Prop 8 by gender and family status

% voting yes

18

Page 19: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

65

47

52

41

45

0 50

65+

50-64

40s

30s

Under 30

Prop 8 by age

% voting yes

19

Page 20: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

39

48

59

58

50

0 50

Other

Asian

Hispanic/Latino

Black

White

Prop 8 by ethnicity

% voting Yes

20

Page 21: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

81

52

30

0 50

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Prop 8 by party

% voting yes

21

Page 22: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

There is a direct correspondence between voters’ self-placement on an ideological scale and the percent supporting Proposition 8

21 22

32

53

7079

86

Very liberal Somewhatliberal

Moderate, leanliberal

Moderate Moderate, leanconservative

SomewhatConservative

Veryconservative

% voting yes

Page 23: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

29

49

17

66

55

0 50

No Religion

Other

Jewish*

Protestant

Catholic

Prop 8 by religion

% voting yes

23

Page 24: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

30

44

49

70

0 50

Hardly ever

Specialoccasions/holiday

Few times a month

Once a week or more

Prop 8 by frequency of worship

% voting yes

24

Page 25: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

40

50

57

56

0 50

Postgraduate study

College graduate

Some college orassociate degree

High school graduate

Prop 8 by education level

% voting Yes

25

Source: media exit poll

Page 26: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

86

30

0 50

John McCain

Barack Obama

Prop 8 by presidential vote

% voting Yes

26

Page 27: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

60

48

5

0 50

Do not know LGBT

Know LGBT

Are LGBT

Prop 8 by knowledge of LGBT people

% voting Yes

27

Page 28: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Timing & Influences

Page 29: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

29

40

29

15

9

5

5

5

5

2

Believe marriage is between a man and woman

Religious reasons

Don’t believe in same sex marriage

Family reasons, should not be taught in school

Moral issues

Thought it was the right way to vote

Homosexuals can live in union; do not call it marriage

Already voted on, already have equal rights

No conviction; does not affect me

Q8 N=549

What are the reasons why you voted YES on Proposition 8?BASE: Those voting YES

Yes voters are driven by the belief thatmarriage is between a man and a woman

Page 30: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

30

40

26

18

11

6

Believe in: civil rights, equal rights, freedom tochoose whom to marry

Prop 8 discriminates, is unequal, wrong to denypeople their rights

Should not be on ballot, govt shouldn’t be allowedto decide who marries whom / unconstitutional /

takes away rights

Not my right to tell someone who they can orcannot marry

Know or is homosexual and/or wants chance tomarry partner

Q9 N=515

What are the reasons why you voted NO on Proposition 8? BASE: Those voting NO

No voters are driven by belief in equal rights andfreedom to choose whom to marry

Page 31: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

31

29

26

12

8

6

3

2

Discussion with friends,families and coworkers

Personal opinion

The information in theballot pamphlet

Religion/ Bible

Televisionadvertisements

Newspaper articles

Newspaper editorials

Q12 (N=1066)

Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?

Majority of voters were most influenced by discussions with friends and family and their personal opinion, while 8% were most influenced by religion.

Page 32: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

32

45

53

43

94

58

31

47

Discussion with friends,families and coworkers

Personal opinion

The information in theballot pamphlet

Religion/ Bible

Televisionadvertisements

Newspaper articles

Newspaper editorials

Q12 (N=1066)

Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?

Voters influenced by discussions more likely to vote no, voters influenced by the religion more likely to vote yes

% voting Yes

Page 33: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Communications

Page 34: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

34

90

86

85

36

27

24

19

10

9

8

7

Television ads

Mail

Discussions with friends and family

Phone calls

Newspaper endorsements

Discussions with clergy, members

Ads in ethnic media

Church or synagogue

Labor union

Ads on web sites

Official web sites

Received information this way

Q28-34 (N=1066)

Ads, mail & discussions with friends and family had the greatest reach. Phone calls and newspaper endorsements also had strong reach.

Page 35: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

While about one-third of voters report receiving a phone call about Prop 8, 95% say it wasn’t effective

64

129

6 63

No calls 1 2 3 4 or 5 6 ormore

Number of phonecalls received

Q63 (N=1066)

3 2

95

More likely to voteyes

More likely to voteno

No influence

Influence ofphone calls

Page 36: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Seeing gay couples being married on TV did not significantly affect the vote on Proposition 8

20

55

1411

Did Not See Saw, but made nodifference

Saw, made morelikely to vote YES on

8

Saw, made morelikely to vote NO on

8

Q63 (N=1066)

Have you ever seen same sex couples get married on the news or on television? (IF YES:) Did that make you more

likely to vote YES on 8, more likely to vote NO on 8, or did it make no difference to you?

Page 37: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

About 69% saw a Yes on 8 ad, but only 18% found them convincing

31

23

14 1517

Did notsee/not

sure

1 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 20 20 ormore

Number of yes on8 ads seen

Q63 (N=1066)

9 9 9

72

Veryconvincing

somewhatconvincing

not tooconvincing

not convincingat all

Convincingnessof TV ads

Page 38: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

38

18

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

52

Teaching same sex marriage in schools

Child with book about a king marrying aking (prince marrying prince, etc.)

Traditional marriage (man marryingwoman)

Mayor talking about same sex marriage/proposition 8

Children on field trip to gay wedding

Parents talking about homosexual son ordaughter

Commercial about kids (not specific)

Religious commercials about same sexmarriage

Discrimination commercial

Spanish commercial talking about samesex marriage

None

Q27 (N=549)

Can you describe for me one television ad for yes on 8 that you remember that was convincing?

The Yes on 8 ad most frequently recalled is aboutthe teaching of same sex marriage in schools.

Page 39: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

39

67

43

38

35

34

33

24

Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no todiscrimination

History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with JapaneseInterment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose

discrimination

Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights fortheir lesbian daughter as for their straight sons

Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by majorpapers, unions, and corporations.

Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from gettingmarried with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person

you love?”

Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right tomarry the person she chooses

Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relativewho had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their

families grow stronger"

Q28-34 (N=1066)

No on 8 Ads Seen: Dianne seen by most

Percent recall seeing ad

Page 40: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

40

17

23

23

13

14

16

18

15

13

20

19

17

17

16

Dianne

History (SLJ)

Thoron

Endorsements

Garden wedding

Ellen

Families

Very convincing Somewhat convincing

Q28-34 (N=1066)

No on 8 Ads Seen: Among viewers, Thoron ad is more convincing

32

36

43

32

31

33

34

Page 41: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

41

46

47

42

48

50

52

46

Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no todiscrimination

History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with JapaneseInterment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose

discrimination

Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights fortheir lesbian daughter as for their straight sons

Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by majorpapers, unions, and corporations.

Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from gettingmarried with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person

you love?”

Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right tomarry the person she chooses

Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relativewho had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their

families grow stronger"

% Yes on 8

Q28-34 (N=1066)

Voters who saw Dianne and Thoron are more likely to have voted no on Prop 8.

*Significant at the .001 level in

logistic regression analysis

Page 42: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

Takeaways

Page 43: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

43

58

49

37

29

19

5

32

17

29

36

37

19

46

41

45

Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage

Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church

Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage tochildren in elementary school

Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CASupreme Court

Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches

Agree Don't Know Disagree

Q49-58 (N=1066)

Majority of voters believed that Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage

All Voters

Page 44: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

44

52

51

50

46

45

10

5

6

6

36

37

44

45

49

18

Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong toeliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'

Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong

Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discriminationagainst some groups & individuals

Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyoneequally & fairly

Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters &the CTA

Agree Don't Know Disagree

Q49-58 (N=1066)

Majority of voters agree that it is wrong to eliminate constitutional right of equal protection and that Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong

All Voters

Page 45: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

45

100

78

62

47

36

35

34

33

30

0

15

39

51

34

57

26

3426

25

29

Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong

Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage *

Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage tochildren in elementary school *

Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong toeliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'

Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination againstsome groups & individuals

Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church

Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CASupreme Court

Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyoneequally & fairly

Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & theCTA

Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches

Q49-58 (N=95)

9% voted YES, but believe that Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, and wrong. Regression analysis indicates they were motivated by the belief that Prop 8 will preserve traditional marriage & stop

the teaching of same sex marriage in school.

Yes voters who believe Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, wrong

*Significant at the .0005 level in logistic regression analysis

Page 46: Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey

46

7

3

3

2

1

1

5

4

73

If same sex marriage is called somethingelse

Probably would not change

If church says same sex marriage is okay

If same sex marriage is not taught inschools

If no adverse affects on churches

If family rights to teach in home are notchanged

Miscellaneous

Don't Know

No / Nothing

Q64 N=549

Some people voted no on Proposition 8 because they believe it’s wrong to deny gay people the ability to get married. Is there anything that could change your mind and

lead you to support the freedom to marry for everyone some day? What?)

73% of yes voters say there is nothing that could change their mind.7% want same sex marriage to be called something else.