promoting the uptake of low emission vehicles (levs)
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Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)Tali Trigg, Energy Technology Policy DivisionInternational Energy Agency14 March 2012TRANSCRIPT
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Promoting the uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
Tali TriggEnergy Technology Policy Division
The Cars of Tomorrow ConferenceMelbourne, Australia, 14 March 2012
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GLOBAL CONTEXT
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The future of oil will be driven by transport
All of the growth in oil use comes from non-OECD countries, mainly for transport, more than offsetting declines in the OECD in all sectors
- 5 0 5 10 15 20
Other
Buildings and
agriculture
Industry
Transport
mb/d
OECD
China
Other non-OECD
Inter-regional (bunkers)
Change in primary oil demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035
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To achieve this, we need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change and energy security challenges.
A key part of this will be a revolution in transport to new technology vehicles and new fuels
Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done. How fast can we ramp up sales of low emission vehicles? What infrastructure will be needed, by when? What policies are needed? What is the role of national governments, municipal
governments, electric utilities, auto makers and others?
The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives calls for CO2 cuts to 50% below 2009 levels by 2050 (25% for transport)
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Transport GHG emission wedges(well-to-wheel CO2-eq)
Baseline
Worldwide, GHGs increase from 7 to over 16 Gt in the Baseline in 2050 and to over 19 Gt in the High Baseline. The combination of technology changes and modal shift yields a reduction to about 5 Gt in BLUE Map/Shifts.
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Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging
In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles through 2050; hybrids reach about 20% of sales
In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2015, PHEVs and EVs by 2020, FCVs after 2025. By 2050, plug-in vehicles account for more than two-thirds of all sales.
Million sales / year
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CNG-powered trucks & buses could help reduce oil needs for transport
Global CNG use, mainly in trucks & buses, triples between 2008 & 2035 to over 60 bcm, saving more than 1 mb/d by 2035
0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
AfricaOECD Pacific
E. Europe/EurasiaOECD Europe
China
Middle EastIndia
Other Asia
OECD North AmericaLatin America
mb/d
2009
2035
Oil savings from use of natural gas in road transport by region in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: IANGV, NGVA Europe, NGV Communications Group, IEA
NGVs: Current status of top 10 countriesCountry Number
of NGVMarket share
(%)
Number of stations
Market share road fuel
consumption (%)
Share in domestic gas consumption
(%)
1 Pakistan 2,250,100 32 3,000 15 13
2 Argentina 1,813,777 23 1,851 18 7
3 Iran 1,734,431 14 1,058 2 0
4 Brazil 1,631,173 11 1,777 4 10
5 India 700,000 4 181 3 1
6 Italy 587,577 2 690 1 1
7 China 500,000 1 1,453 0 2
8 Colombia 299,640 23 485 5 5
9 Ukraine 200,019 2 91 1 1
10 Bangladesh 200,000 51 500 n/a 2
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Electric and Advanced Vehicles
IEA believes these will have to play a major role in reaching low CO2 levels, especially after 2020…
… but fuel economy is the low-hanging fruit Sales of LEVs ramp-up must begin now in order
to reach long term targets Battery costs and characteristics remain the key
technical issue, but for how long? Will we need fuel cell vehicles, H2?
This may also depend on batteries
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GHG intensity of electricity productionBy 2050, world electricity generation radically
decarbonised in ETP BLUE Map – but not in Baseline.
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Australian CO2 intensity of electricity production 1(2)In the 4 degree scenario (4DS) PHEVs perform well in the near-term, but can only reach their full potential by 2050 if the electricity sector is decarbonised.
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Australian CO2 intensity of electricity production 2(2)In the 2 degree scenario (2DS) PHEVs and EVs offer significant CO2 reduction potential earlier compared to 4DS.
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Fuel Economy Initiatives
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The Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)
Launched on 4 March 2009 in Geneva by IEA, ITF, UNEP, and the FIA Foundation
GOAL: reduction in vehicle fuel consumption per km of 50% by 2050 (for the vehicle stock) compared to 2005 Roughly equivalent to a 50% reduction by 2030 for new sales, worldwide Requires an average improvement 3% per year for 25 years!
Four main activity areas: Analysis of global fuel economy trends and potential Outreach to governments, assistance in policy development Outreach to stakeholders, dialogue to improve coordination Information campaigns
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GFEI Analysis
2005 2008 Annual Change2005-2008
Fuel Economy
(lge/100km)
Global Average 8.04 7.65 -1.6%
GFEI Objective 8.04 4.02 -2.7%
2005 2030Required
Annual Change 2005-2030
The global average was about 8 L/100km in 2005. It improved to below 7.7 in 2008. But the rate of change was well less than that needed to hit GFEI targets.
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France’s “Bonus/Malus”
Since 2006, car labeling for new vehicles is compulsory at dealerships
Label value based on NEDC test cycle fuel economy
Political commitment after the « Grenelle de l’environnement »
French OEMs good at small diesel cars
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The original Bonus/Malus It was announced in Sept 2007, to start in
January 2008, designed to be revenue neutral -5gCO2/km every 2 years Special Bonus for hybrids and LPG : 2000 €
CO2, g/km Barème, €>250 2600
De 201 à 250 1600De 166 à 200 750De 161 à 165 200De 131 à 160 0De 121 à 130 200De 101 à 120 700De 61 à 100 1000
<60 5000
Malus
Bonus
(If under 110 gCO2/km)
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Impact on sales Immediate and lasting
Introduction of bonus/malus
Jan 2008
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Bonus/Malus conclusions
Bonus/Malus had an immediate and substantial effect on consumer purchase behavior (was not considered a new tax)
Information (labels) was already well installed Mid term visibility of feebate evolution great
asset for OEMs; better product planning Economic neutrality difficult to reach: design
prior to feebate launch key to success France has Europe’s most efficient new vehicle
fleet (2009) as number of vehicle models meeting the standards steadily increased
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International Cooperation: Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
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Electric Vehicles Initiative Initiative announced at the Clean Energy Ministerial in
Washington DC, July 2010Kick-off meeting was held in Paris 29 Sept/1 Oct 2010
14 countries: China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United StatesTogether these countries account for about 80% of world’s
vehicle demand, probably most of EV sales in coming years International Energy Agency serves in a facilitator role Three primary objectives:
Common data collection/analysis efforts Greater RD&D collaboration City forum that links cities within EVI countries (e.g., City
Casebook) Recent events: Pilot Cities conference in Shanghai, April 2011 Upcoming Event: EVI Meeting in Los Angeles, May 2012
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Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales through 2020, based on national targets
Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).
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Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle stock (cumulative sales) through 2020, based on national targets
Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).
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Government Targets and PHEV/EV Production/Sales as Reported by OEMs
Each production/sale shown here is assumed to be constant after the year OEM announced/reported.
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World PHEV/EV Sales in 2011
• Took six years for HEVs to achieve what it took EVs in one year (2011)
• The Fukushima disaster created a supply bottleneck that may misrepresent actual demand of 2011
Source: MarkLines Database
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Spending by EVI countries 2008-2011Incomplete numbers nevertheless give indications of EV-spending
strategies pursued by countries
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Subsidy scenario 2010-2020• $50 billion between 2010-2020 is 0.1% of $33 trillion spent on conventional
vehicles and fuels
• If each conventional car sold in the next 10 years were taxed at $50, this would pay for the entire EV rollout over the coming decade
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Demonstration and pilot projects
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Clean fleet initiatives
Several countries, regions and cities are incentivizing commercial fleets to “go clean” through improving fuel economy, integrating new technology vehicles and reducing overall fuel use (e.g., car rental companies)
France’s postal office, “La Poste,” has ordered 10,000 electric vehicles
The US National Clean Fleets Partnership now includes 12% of the US commercial fleet, aiming to reduce CO2 emissions through efficiency measures and clean technologies
Victorian Government’s Electric Vehicle Trial including training workshops for fleet managers -> good example of importance of stakeholder education
In total, private fleet purchases of EVs alone, now total 170,000 vehicles
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Berlin: Electric Mobility Solutions
Mini E trial with 70 vehicles to add grid stability from renewable wind energy
Initiative 120 Project is a concept demonstration to try out alternative technologies in police cars
The E-City Logistics Project demonstrated electric logistical applications and extended delivery hours due to low noise
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Amsterdam: Ambitious Near-Term
750 EVs today and 3,000/10,000 by 2012/2015 Today, 350 public charging stations, highest rate per
inhabitant worldwide; by 2013, 1,000 points City’s EV charging network is first worldwide to provide
geo-information in real-time and as open data
Source: EVI
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Stockholm: Established charging
65% of households already have access to block heaters; 140 public charging points; 200 slow chargers in newest parking garage (picture)
Environmental zones for heavy trucks (Amsterdam too) (Sweden) Tax exemption (5 years) and super credit
(4,000 Euros)
Source: EVI
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Conclusions
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Conclusions Without policy interventions oil use and related CO2 emissions
worldwide could double by 2050 Even if we hit targets of 20 million EVs on the road by 2020, that
will only represent 2% of vehicles worldwide and well less than 1% of electricity demand, thus:We will just be reaching the point where real “take off” can
happen, but intermediate and long-term targets cannot be met without adequate preparation and ramp-up time -> temporal strategy essential
We can change this picture dramatically and cut transport CO2 below current levels via a combination of Strong efficiency improvements in fuel economy (50%
improvement by 2030) and adoption of alternatives fuelsRapid uptake of advanced technology vehicles (e.g., EVs,
FCVs), but technology-neutral policies will achieve the best results -> avoid silver bullet bias
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Backup Slides
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Role of Biofuels In global baseline, biofuels now about 1.5%, reach 3%
in 2030, 4% in 2050, mostly 1st genIn LAC, its 8%, reaching 10% by 2030, 11% by 2050
BLUE Map, biofuels reach about 10% of transport fuels in 2030, 25% in 2050In LAC, biofuels reach nearly 20% in 2030, 40% in
2050Cane to ethanol (and eventually cane-biodiesel?)
continues to be very important in LAC After 2030 main growth for trucks, ships aircraft After 2020, all new biofuels are 2nd generation (and
cane)Costs reach competitive levels with $120/bbl oil by
2020-2025
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EVI Activities
The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) provides a forum for global cooperation on the development and deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). The initiative seeks to facilitate the global deployment of at least 20 million EVs by 2020, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, by accomplishing the following:
• Encouraging the development of national deployment goals• Launching pilot cities to promote EV demonstrations in urban
areas, and share experiences and lessons learned• Sharing information on funding levels and research and
development programs to ensure that the most crucial global gaps in vehicle technology development are being addressed
• Exchanging information on EV deployment targets, as well as best practices and policies, to enable progress toward those targets
• Engaging private sector stakeholders to focus on the benefits of EV procurement for corporate fleets and public-private investments in technology innovation
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Acceptability Has not been perceived as « another tax » Scheme widely acceptedsmaller Customer shifted towards vehicle Dieselization raised in 2008, then decreased
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OEMs answer Number of models subjected to Bonus
increased quickly
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Cost of the scheme In 2008, the scheme cost the government (and
taxpayers) 214 million €Shift to smaller, cheaper vehicles also generated VAT
losses (est. an extra 300 million €) In 2009, 525 million €
It was coupled with a scrapping scheme incentive
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Adjustement to the scheme Economic neutrality for the public finance failed 2010 bonus changed Extra steps in 2011, more to come in 2012
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Cost of the scheme, 2010 Still the cost of the scheme in 2010 was far from
neutralityHence even tougher bonuses for 2011 and 2012
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Impact on average new vehicle fleet Trend has been accelerated
Source: Ademe
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Impact on average fleet Trend has been accelerated Gasoline cars are more CO2-efficient than Diesel
cars in 2009 In 2009, France has the most efficient new
vehicle fleet in Europe
Source: Ademe
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Growth of slow and fast charging points in EVI countries, 2008-2011
Not all data points have been submitted by all EVI members which results in
underreporting.
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Shown another way