Dr. Troy C. BlanchardDepartment of SociologyLouisiana State University

This work is a product of a collaborative effort between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide a variety of agencies and organizations at the state and local level with timely demographic data on our state.

Background InformationWhat are population projections and who uses them?Who projects populations and how is it accomplished?How do we interpret a population projection?What are the important findings from the 2010-2030 population projections?What new trends are emerging that may require additional research?

A population projection is a simulation of what a population will look like at some point in the future based on a set of assumptions.Projections are used by a wide variety of entities:

Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare, Councils on Aging) use projections to identify areas with a fast growing elderly population.Businesses use projections to identify a particular customer base.Economic development groups use projections to identify the demand for jobs.

U.S. Census Bureau calculates population projections for the U.S. and individual states.Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S. Census Bureau mission:

ParishesCities/Towns/VillagesSchool Districts

Most states develop some type of projection effort to inform policy makers.

Louisiana: Department of Administration, Office of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data Center

Population at Time 1

Population at Time 2

Calculate number of deaths

Calculate number of births

Calculate net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants)

Use past trends to predict future.Why past trends?

Fertility and mortality patterns generally stable.Migration is the least stable of the three components that influence population size, so we use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages).

Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues and is difficult to predict:

Job opportunitiesQuality of educationHousing stockAccess to natural amenitiesFamily, social, and cultural pulls

Example…The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015.

Caveat #1: If recent fertility, mortality, and migration trends remain the same, this will be the outcome.

Caveat #2: Not set in stone, if something happens that changes the migration, fertility, or mortality rates, the outcome will change.

Vernon

Winn

Cameron

Rapides

Sabine

Union

Caddo

Allen

Vermilion

Bossier

Grant

Calcasieu

De Soto

LaFourche

Terrebonne

Beauregard

Natchitoches

Tensas

Acadia

Bienville

St. Landry

Avoyelles

Iberia

La Salle

Claiborne

Franklin

St. Mary

Iberville

Jackson

Catahoula

MadisonOuachita

Morehouse

Lincoln

Livingston

Richland

St. Tammany

Caldwell

Evangeline

St. Martin

Washington

Plaquemines

Webster

Concordia

Tangipahoa

Jefferson Davis

Red River

Pointe CoupeeSt. Helena

East Carroll

St. BernardJeffersonSt. Charles

East Feliciana

Assumption

Ascension

West Carroll

West Feliciana

Lafayette

Orleans

East Baton Rouge

St. James

St. Martin

Iberia

St. John the Baptist

West Baton Rouge

Projected Change

Increase

Decrease

A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are growing.

I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan AreasLafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans

Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is concentrated.

Shreveport Metropolitan AreasAlexandria Metropolitan Areas

Vernon

Winn

Cameron

Rapides

Sabine

Union

Caddo

Allen

Vermilion

Bossier

Grant

Calcasieu

De Soto

LaFourche

Terrebonne

Beauregard

Natchitoches

Tensas

Acadia

Bienville

St. Landry

Avoyelles

Iberia

La Salle

Claiborne

Franklin

St. Mary

Iberville

Jackson

Catahoula

MadisonOuachita

Morehouse

Lincoln

Livingston

Richland

St. Tammany

Caldwell

Evangeline

St. Martin

Washington

Plaquemines

Webster

Concordia

Tangipahoa

Jefferson Davis

Red River

Pointe CoupeeSt. Helena

East Carroll

St. BernardJeffersonSt. Charles

East Feliciana

Assumption

Ascension

West Carroll

West Feliciana

Lafayette

Orleans

East Baton Rouge

St. James

St. Martin

Iberia

St. John the Baptist

West Baton Rouge

Percent Increase

0.57 - 1.61

1.62 - 4.64

4.65 - 9.74

9.75 - 38.94

Top growth parishes:Livingston (BR Metro)St. Tammany (NO Metro)Ascension (BR Metro)St. John (NO Metro)Plaquemines (NO Metro)Bossier (Shreveport Metro)DeSoto (Shreveport Metro)

Vernon

Winn

Cameron

Rapides

Sabine

Union

Caddo

Allen

Vermilion

Bossier

Grant

Calcasieu

De Soto

LaFourche

Terrebonne

Beauregard

Natchitoches

Tensas

Acadia

Bienville

St. Landry

Avoyelles

Iberia

La Salle

Claiborne

Franklin

St. Mary

Iberville

Jackson

Catahoula

MadisonOuachita

Morehouse

Lincoln

Livingston

Richland

St. Tammany

Caldwell

Evangeline

St. Martin

Washington

Plaquemines

Webster

Concordia

Tangipahoa

Jefferson Davis

Red River

Pointe CoupeeSt. Helena

East Carroll

St. BernardJeffersonSt. Charles

East Feliciana

Assumption

Ascension

West Carroll

West Feliciana

Lafayette

Orleans

East Baton Rouge

St. James

St. Martin

Iberia

St. John the Baptist

West Baton Rouge

Percent Decline

-16.01 - -9.73

-9.72 - -5.94

-5.93 - -2.33

-2.32 - -0.44

Top growth parishes:Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)Tensas (Rural-Delta Region)East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region)Winn (Rural-Central LA)Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan Area-Central LA)Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)

Region% Change 2010-2020

Alexandria Metro 2.37%Baton Rouge Metro 9.39%Houma Metro 3.65%Lafayette Metro 4.03%Lake Charles Metro -1.16%Monroe Metro -1.75%New Orleans Metro 12.01%Shreveport Metro 2.57%

Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the growing Hispanic population.Grew by 4.83% from 2007-2008.

Nonhispanic Whites-.14%Nonhispanic Black-1.64%

Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth areas:

The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7% growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing metro (<1% between 2007 and 2008).

Percent Growth in Hispanic Population for LA Metropolitan Areas 2007-2008 2006-2007

Alexandria 3.8 4.7Baton Rouge 6.5 5.6Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux 6.1 5.4Lafayette 6.7 5.4Lake Charles 7.7 6.2Monroe 2.3 1.9New Orleans-Metarie-Kenner 5.1 14.1Shreveport-Bossier City 5.0 3.9

Metropolitan Area Hispanic Growth Total Growth

Livingston Parish Baton Rouge, LA 14.3829 3.2515 St. Bernard Parish New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 12.5804 12.8084 Plaquemines Parish New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 10.1106 -1.4863 Orleans Parish New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 9.4594 8.2398 St. Landry Parish N/A 8.6629 0.8844 Grant Parish Alexandria, LA 8.4615 1.0574 Franklin Parish N/A 8.2902 -0.2742 Lafourche Parish Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA 7.8093 -0.1424 Calcasieu Parish Lake Charles, LA 7.8091 0.6218 Lafayette Parish Lafayette, LA 6.7860 1.1371 East Feliciana Parish Baton Rouge, LA 6.5990 0.2257 Bossier Parish Shreveport-Bossier City, LA 6.1319 1.3830 St. Tammany Parish New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 6.0431 0.9692 St. Martin Parish Lafayette, LA 5.9900 0.9162 Iberia Parish N/A 5.9852 0.2055 East Baton Rouge Parish Baton Rouge, LA 5.9470 -0.3615 Ascension Parish Baton Rouge, LA 5.8331 2.7248 Beauregard Parish N/A 5.7955 0.5895 Cameron Parish Lake Charles, LA 5.4795 -2.3080 Jackson Parish N/A 5.1613 0.5893