Project Management Risk Management. Introduction Project planning Gantt chart and WBS Project planning Network analysis I Project planning Network analysis

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<ul><li><p>Project ManagementRisk Management</p></li><li><p>PlanProject planningResource analysisBudgets and cost controlRisk managementProject teamsIntroductionProject planningGantt chart and WBSProject planningNetwork analysis IProject planningNetwork analysis II</p></li><li><p>Project DisastersHi-tech Toilet Failsafe errorMars Orbiter units errorArianne 5 data conversion error</p></li><li><p>What is Risk?Risk is the possibility of suffering loss</p><p>Possible but not certain, so it is expressed as probabilityLoss - is any unwanted consequence that might occur</p></li><li><p>Risk in IS ProjectsIn a development project, the loss describes the impact to the project which could be in the form of diminished quality of the end product, increased costs, delayed completion, or failure.SEI</p></li><li><p>Risk ManagementFour Main StepsPlan Risk Management ProcessBefore these activities?</p><p>Risk Identification</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>Risk Response Control</p></li><li><p>Risk IdentificationThe possible risk is determined by a number of interrelated factors such as:Nature of the ProjectAggressive or Conservative Schedule/BudgetSkills and motivation of the Project Team</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>Risk IdentificationRisks can be identified by analysing:Historical InformationProject Files, Commercial Databases, Project team knowledge etc.Work Breakdown StructureInternal and External Factors</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>Risk IdentificationTechniques:Checklists e.g. BoehmBrainstormingCausal/Cognitive Mapping</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>IS Projects and Risk</p><p>Identify the possible sources of risk in a typical IS project?</p><p>See Pressman, 1998 Chapter 6.</p></li><li><p>IS Project RisksOne of our Team members is missingThe person with the plans is illHavent used VB much beforeDatabase design problemsSystems broke when I fixed a bugSystem doesnt meet requirementsIt worked when I tried it at home</p></li><li><p>LikelihoodWhat is the likelihood of risk?Expressed as a Probability (Percentage)Example There is a 5% chance of a programmer breaking their big toe whilst coding in any 6 month period</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046976.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p><p>_1106046996.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>ImpactWhat impact will it have on the project?Example A broken toe on average results in the loss of 20 working days for a programmerExpected Value of Loss/ProfitExpected Value = Loss/Profit x Likelihood-20 x 0.05 = -1So we will lose 1 day of coding per programmer on a 6 month project</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046976.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p><p>_1106046996.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>UrgencyHow urgently do we need to deal with it?Immediate remedy or Can it wait?Additional means of prioritising action</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046976.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p><p>_1106046996.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>Example Risk Assessment</p><p>Team Conflict and Injuries</p><p>Description:</p><p>Teammates in the group might have conflicts with one another throughout the semester. Injuries might result from conflict, accidents, and other mishaps throughout the semester.</p><p>How to Avoid It:</p><p>If any of the teammates show signs of conflict against one another, we need to mediate between them in order to make our team working smoothly and such throughout the whole semester. Thus that will reduce a factor for injury. However, for the other factors of injury, we need to make sure that we take good care of ourselves such that no harm will befall upon us (such as carpal tunnel syndrome, leg breaking, finger breaking, etc).</p><p>What It Will Affect:</p><p>If there is a large enough conflict, we might lose some teammates. Same with for injuries, if the injury is bad enough to cause teammates to not be able to work on the project.</p><p>Possible Likelihood:</p><p>3/100 chance</p><p>The Real World Lab: HYPERLINK "http://www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/RWL/Web/" http://www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/RWL/Web/</p></li><li><p>Quantifying RiskProgrammer has 5% chance of breaking toe in any 6 month periodBroken toe results in the loss of 20 programmer daysCost of a programmer-day = 500Expected Loss per year due to broken toes2 x (0.05 x -20) = -2 daysExpected loss = -1000</p></li><li><p>TechniquesRisk Map/Probability Impact MatrixHazard Control MatrixPayoff MatrixDecision Tree</p></li><li><p>Risk Map</p><p>Likelihood of Occurrence</p><p>High</p><p>Medium</p><p>Low</p></li><li><p>Risk Map</p><p>Likelihood of Occurrence</p><p>High</p><p>Medium</p><p>Low</p><p>Scale of impact</p><p>Large</p><p>Medium</p><p>Small</p></li><li><p>Risk Map</p><p>Likelihood of Occurrence</p><p>High</p><p>Medium</p><p>Low</p><p>Scale of impact</p><p>Large</p><p>Medium</p><p>Small</p></li><li><p>Risk Map</p><p>Likelihood of Occurrence</p><p>High</p><p>Medium</p><p>Low</p><p>Scale of impact</p><p>Large</p><p>Medium</p><p>Small</p><p>B</p><p>A</p><p>C</p><p>D</p></li><li><p>Risk MapList the risks in order of priority</p><p>What else can we use to help prioritise?</p><p>Likelihood of Occurrence</p><p>High</p><p>Medium</p><p>Low</p><p>Scale of impact</p><p>Large</p><p>Medium</p><p>Small</p><p>B</p><p>A</p><p>C</p><p>D</p></li><li><p>Hazard Control MatrixFrom Curtis, G (1998) "Business Information Systems" Addison Wesley </p><p>Errors and omissions</p><p>Lost data and documents</p><p>Computer Failure</p><p>Unauthorized Access</p><p>Fire</p><p>Fraud</p><p>Input controls</p><p>Processing controls</p><p>Output controls</p><p>Storage controls</p><p>Operating system controls</p><p>Records management</p><p>Accounting controls</p><p>Contingency plan</p><p>Physical security</p></li><li><p>Hazard Control MatrixFrom Curtis, G (1998) "Business Information Systems" Addison Wesley </p><p>Errors and omissions</p><p>Lost data and documents</p><p>Computer Failure</p><p>Unauthorized Access</p><p>Fire</p><p>Fraud</p><p>Input controls</p><p>Processing controls</p><p>Output controls</p><p>Storage controls</p><p>Operating system controls</p><p>Records management</p><p>Accounting controls</p><p>Contingency plan</p><p>Physical security</p></li><li><p>Hazard Control MatrixFrom Curtis, G (1998) "Business Information Systems" Addison Wesley </p><p>Errors and omissions</p><p>Lost data and documents</p><p>Computer Failure</p><p>Unauthorized Access</p><p>Fire</p><p>Fraud</p><p>Input controls</p><p>(</p><p>Processing controls</p><p>(</p><p>Output controls</p><p>(</p><p>Storage controls</p><p>Operating system controls</p><p>Records management</p><p>(</p><p>Accounting controls</p><p>(</p><p>Contingency plan</p><p>Physical security</p></li><li><p>Hazard Control MatrixFrom Curtis, G (1998) "Business Information Systems" Addison Wesley </p><p>Errors and omissions</p><p>Lost data and documents</p><p>Computer Failure</p><p>Unauthorized Access</p><p>Fire</p><p>Fraud</p><p>Input controls</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Processing controls</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Output controls</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Storage controls</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Operating system controls</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Records management</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Accounting controls</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Contingency plan</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>Physical security</p><p>(</p><p>(</p><p>(</p></li><li><p>Identification and AssessmentProblemsNot a particularly interesting taskNeeds experience to do well</p><p>Are these good reasons to not do it?</p></li><li><p>Risk Response DevelopmentHow are we going to deal with risks when they occur?What about those we werent expecting?</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046996.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106122563.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106122588.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046976.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>Control SystemsPreventive ControlStops undesirable events (disturbances) from occurring (see Curtis, 1998 Chapter 8)Feedback ControlDoesnt attempt to prevent unpredictable disturbancesIs able to recover from effectsSystems will usually combine both</p></li><li><p>Risk ControlGoals of ControlPreventionDetectionMinimise LossRecoveryInvestigationH. A. Simon</p><p>Risk ResponseAvoidancePreventionMitigationTransferAcceptanceCadle and Yeates</p></li><li><p>Quantifying RiskProgrammer has 5% chance of breaking toe in any 6 month periodBroken toe results in the loss of 20 programmer daysCost of a programmer-day = 500Expected Loss per year due to broken toes2 x (0.05 x -20) = -2 daysExpected loss = -1000</p><p>Therefore this much is available to be spent on preventative measures (e.g. titanium shoes)</p></li><li><p>Risk ControlMitigation by Procurement of goods/servicesContingency PlanningUse Alternative StrategiesInsurance</p><p>See also Lockyer and Gordon, 1996 Ch.7</p></li><li><p>IS Projects and Risk</p><p>What can be done to prevent or mitigate the previously identified IS risks?</p></li><li><p>IS Project RisksTeam members dont existCareful distribution of tasks early onThe person with the plans is illMake sure information is shared and distributedHavent used VB much beforeGet to the implementation stage early or prototypeDatabase design problemsEarly test of info requirementsSystems broke when I fixed a bugChange control processSystem doesnt meet requirementsMore careful design or better use of use cases</p></li><li><p>Risk Response ControlImplement Risk ResponsesIdentify new RisksImplement new responses</p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p> EMBED Word.Picture.8 </p><p>_1106046650.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106046996.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106122588.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106122720.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106122743.doc</p><p>Risk Response Control</p><p>_1106122563.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046976.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p><p>_1106046598.doc</p><p>Risk Assessment</p><p>_1106046629.doc</p><p>Risk Response Development</p><p>_1106046567.doc</p><p>Risk Identification</p></li><li><p>Risk RegisterCan be used to keep information about identified risks (Yeates and Cadle Ch. 13)Title and descriptionRisk Status - e.g. candidate, live, closedPotential impactRisk ownerActionsAction Log</p></li><li><p>Risk OwnershipRisk owner is someone who:Has sufficient information concerning the riskHas the necessary resources to do something about the riskPossesses the authority to do something about the risk</p></li><li><p>PlanProject planningResource analysisBudgets and cost controlRisk managementProject teamsIntroductionProject planningGantt chart and WBSProject planningNetwork analysis IProject planningNetwork analysis II</p></li></ul>