project eddie: lake ice phenology carey, c.c., j.l. klug, and d.c. richardson. 1 april 2015. project...
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Project EDDIE: Lake Ice Phenology
Carey, C.C., J.L. Klug, and D.C. Richardson. 1 April 2015. Project EDDIE: Lake Ice Phenology. Project EDDIE Module 1, Version 1.
http://cemast.illinoisstate.edu/data-for-students/modules/ice-phenology.shtml
. Module development was supported by NSF DEB 1245707.
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What is ice-off, anyway?
Photo credit: Midge Eliassen
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How does ice melt?
Photo credit: Midge Eliassen
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Ice candles
Photo credit: Midge Eliassen
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What was the proxy used for ice-out in Lake Constance in the Middle Ages?
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Magnuson et al. 2000
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Why are changes in ice-off dates important to the biology of the lake?
Abundance
Time
Algae Zooplankton
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Why are changes in ice-off dates important to the biology of the lake?
Abundance
Time
Algae Zooplankton
Clearwater phase
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Why are changes in ice-off dates important to the biology of the lake?
Abundance
Time
Algae Zooplankton respond to photoperiod
Clearwater phase respond to temperature
Predict what is going to happen with climate change!
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Why are changes in ice-off dates important to the biology of the lake?
Abundance
Time
Algae Zooplankton respond to photoperiod
Clearwater phase respond to temperature
MISMATCH!!
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Winder and Schindler (2004)
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Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire, dataset
Day of year: 01-Jan = 1 31-
Dec = 365
Photo credit: Joseph Brophy
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Graphing Sunapee dataset
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
20
40
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f(x) = − 0.0815070739760775 x + 271.930034331198R² = 0.119881073787134
Sunapee
Year
Day
of y
ear
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Linear regression overview
y = m*x + b
Independent variable:Year (units=year)
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Linear regression overview
y = m*x + b
Slope of line(units=day of year)‘-’ = getting earlier‘+’ = getting later
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Linear regression overview
y = m*x + b
Intercept(units=year)
At x=0, what is yHeight of the line
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Linear regression overview
y = m*x + b
Dependent variable(units= day of year)
Day of ice-off
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Linear regression overview
R2=proportion of variation explained
R2 = 0.044% of
variance explained
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Linear regression overview
R2=proportion of variation explained
R2 = 1.00100% of variance
explained,perfect line
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Linear regression overview
R2=proportion of variation explained
R2 > 0.330% of variance
explained
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Graphing Sunapee dataset
•Multiple regression lines; look at slope, R2 (indicator of variability)•Predict Ice-out for this year!
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
f(x) = − 0.20587044534413 x + 520.399392712551R² = 0.0981682593195813
f(x) = − 0.109668025626092 x + 325.542050087362R² = 0.102736728095831f(x) = − 0.0815070739760775 x + 271.930034331198R² = 0.119881073787134
Year
Day
of y
ear
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What’s our ice-off day?
Lake Sunapee, NH (Photo credit: Midge Eliassen)
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Class activity
• Divide into groups; pick a lake (not Sunapee!)• Graph regression line for entire dataset• Calculate ice-off day with regression equation
for beginning and end of dataset• Predict ice-off day for this upcoming spring• Why is there so much variability in the data?• Why do different lakes have different
patterns?
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Lake MetadataLake Name Location Latitude
(oN)Lake area (km2) Trophic status
Baikal Siberia, Russia 53 31,722 Oligotrophic
Cazenovia Near Syracuse, NY, USA
42 4.5 Eutrophic
Mendota Madison, WI, USA 43 39 Eutrophic
Monona Madison, WI, USA 43 13 Eutrophic
Oneida Near Syracuse, NY, USA
43 207 Mesotrophic
Sunapee Central NH, USA 43 17 Oligotrophic
Wingra Madison, WI, USA 43 1 Eutrophic
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Mirror Lake, New Hampshire
Photo credit: hubbardbrook.org
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Homework Table