progressive conservative poll, october 2010convention presentation october 2010

8/6/2019 Progressive Conservative Poll, October 2010Convention Presentation October 2010

1/31

PC Alberta Strategic

Update Survey

STRICTLY PRIVILEGED ANDCONFIDENTIAL

June, 2010

Prepared for:

Innovative Research Group,

Inc.www.innovativeresearch.caToronto :: Vancouver
http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.calgarymackay.ca/pc-alberta-logo.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.calgarymackay.ca/&usg=__MN94oCy0QmpSRR1TJJXiEh5X7o8=&h=72&w=144&sz=2&hl=en&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=RzXKGE_D5zok1M:&tbnh=47&tbnw=94&prev=/images?q=alberta+pc+logo&um=1&hl=en&sa=G&rlz=1R2RNTN_enCA372&tbs=isch:1


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Methodology


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Albertans Values


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Majority believe that thegovernment should create equalopportunity for people to competeIt is more important for government

Note: Blank and Refused (3%) not shown

Q

5

60

28%

10%

To create equal opportunity so that

everyone can compete on their own to be

the best they can be.

To redistribute wealth so that the poor

and disadvantaged have more than they

would if left on their own.

Don't know

j i b li h h fi


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Majority believe that the profitsystem teaches people the value ofhard work and successDo you think the profit system


Q

6

26

56%

15%

Brings out the worst in human nature? Teaches people the value of hard work

and success?

Don't know


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Three-in-four believe that Alberta hasa pressing social deficit

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Q

Note: Dont know/Refused not shown

7

34%

16%

13%

42%

20%

35%

4%

4%

9% 26% 14%

12%

29% 26%

We have a pressing social deficit in

Alberta that is measured by

problems such as homelessness,

waiting lists for health care and

lack of access to post-secondary

education.

It's hard for people like me to get

ahead in Alberta.

Protecting the environment is

more important than creating jobs.

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

M j it b li th t h ld


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Majority believe the govt shoulddecide spending based on thepublics need, not affordabilityWhich of the following statements is closest to your view? When governments make

major decisions concerning spending on programs and services, do you think they should

be basing their decisions mainly on

Q

8

26

65%

10%

Their ability to afford the programs and

services

The public's need for the programs and

services

Don't know

B 2 1 i Alb t b li


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By a 2:1 margin, Albertans believein funding social programs overeliminating the deficitWhich statement is closest to your view?

The provincial government should increase finding for social programs such ashealth and education even if it means running a deficit

-or-The provincial government should eliminate the deficit, even if it means reducingfunding for social programs such as health and education

Q

9

Th i f b li th t l


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Three-in-four believe that peopleshould be left alone to decide whatis right on moral issuesWhen it comes to moral issues like same sex marriage and abortion, do you think


Q

10

17

75%

6%

Government should legislate clear

community moral standards?

People should be left alone to decide

what is right for themselves?

Don't know


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PC Party Brand

PC P t hi h t i


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PC Party scores highest inquestions relating to leadership,competence and responsibilityThinking about Albertas main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose

Alliance, the Liberals and the NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the

following words or phrases.

Q

12

37%

33%

33%

32%

12%

11%

10%

13%

5%

6%

7%

5%

16%

10%

13%

17%

12%

18%

14%

18%

18%

17%

14%

12%

1%

1%

1%

Prepared to run the government

Competent

Strong team

Financially responsible

The PC Party The Liberal Party The NDP The Wildrose AllianceOther None/ Would not vote Undecided/DK

E t d b l lit t 13


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Extreme used by a plurality todescribe the NDP, Wildrose

Thinking about Albertas main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the WildroseAlliance, the Liberals and the NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the


Q

13

9% 13% 22% 9%21% 3% 18%Extreme

The PC Party The Liberal Party The NDP The Wildrose Alliance

Other None/ Would not vote Undecided/DK

St d f l I b li i

14


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Stands for values I believe inused by plurality to describe the PCpartyThinking about Albertas main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose

Alliance, the Liberals and the NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the


Q

14

27% 14% 10% 10%21% 4% 12%Stands for values I believe in

The PC Party The Liberal Party The NDP The Wildrose Alliance

Other None/ Would not vote Undecided/DK


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Leader Brand

St l h hi h t d 16


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Stelmach scores highest on record,competence and leadership

Thinking again of the four main party leaders Ed Stelmach of the ProgressiveConservative Party, Dr. David Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New

Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance which leader do you feel isbest described by each of the following words or phrases?

Q

16

28%

23%

21%

7%

9%

7%

6%

9%

8% 20% 14%

6%

18%

21%

9%

Proven record of

accomplishment

Competent

Strong leader

Ed Stelmach of the PC Party Dr. David Swan of the Liberal Party Brian Mason of the NDP

Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance None



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18


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Ed Stelmach is reliable



Q

18

25% 7% 9% 13% 15%Reliable

Ed Stelmach of the PC Party Dr. David Swan of the Liberal Party Brian Mason of the NDP

Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance None


Ed Stelmach balances the interests 19


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Ed Stelmach balances the interestsof all regions



Q

19


20


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Stelmach compares positively toother leaders

Thinking again of the main party leaders ... which leader do you feel is best described byeach of the following words or phrases?


Q

20

impressions while Smith Swann 21


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impressions, while Smith, Swann,Mason stayed the same

Now, I would like to read you the names of several individuals who have been mentionedin the news recently. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that personand, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. Ifyou do not recognize the name, just say so. Would that be stronglyfavourable/unfavourable impression or just a somewhat favourable/unfavourableimpression?

Q


21

22


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Ed Stelmach top choice for Premier

And which of the following leaders would make the best Premier of Alberta?Q

22

Note: Refused (1%) notshown


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The Snapshot

Question

PCs have a plurality and have

24


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PCs have a plurality, and havewidened their lead over WildroseAlliance.Now, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote

for in your local riding? Would it be?Q

24

Note: Refused, Would not vote (5%)not shown

Liberal candidatePC candidate NDP candidate TheWildroseAlliance

candidate

Other Undecided/DK

Almost a third of those decided and

25


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Almost a third of those decided andleaning would vote PC

Now, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you votefor in your local riding? Would it be? [Vote + lean]

Q

25

Liberal candidatePC candidate NDPcandidat

e

TheWildroseAlliance

candidate

Other

Note: Refused, Would not vote (5%)not shown

PCs lead with 40% of decided vote

26


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PCs lead with 40% of decided vote,opening a gap on The WildroseAllianceNow, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you vote

for in your local riding? Would it be? [Decided Vote]Q

26

Liberal candidate PC candidateNDP

candidate

TheWildroseAlliance

candidate

Other

PCs lead in Edmonton and rural; 27


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PCs lead in Edmonton and rural;statistical tie in Calgary

Now, if a provincial election were held today, which partys candidate would you votefor in your local riding? Would it be? [Decided vote]

Q

27

Calgary

Rural

Edmonton

PCNDP

LiberalWildrose

PC voters vs Wildrose voters (June 28


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PC voters vs. Wildrose voters (June& Oct. 2010):Really not all that different

28

25% 25%

PC Wildrose

Attend church at least once aweek

Believe govt should be doing more or at least the same

to protect free, high quality healthcare.

82%67%

PC Wildrose

Agree that the profit system teaches peoplethe value of hard work and success

63% 63%

PC Wildrose

Believe govt should be doing more or at least the sameto reduce GHGs.

84%68%

PC Wildrose

29


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Key Findings Summary

PC brand strengths are leadership, competence,

team, responsibility.

Premier Stelmachs brand strengths areaccomplishment, competence and leadership.

Also cares about voters, balances regional interestsand is reliable.

Wildrose supporters similar to PC voters in attitudes,demographics, and position on issues.


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Key Findings Summary

The PC party has improved its position since

June Decided vote lead doubles from 7 to 14 points

Gains in Edmonton and Calgary stable in rural

Underlying party numbers also show improvements

The Premier has improved his standing sinceJune

Best Premier - leading by 8

Favourables up 6 and unfavourables down 9

Underlying numbers all show similar gains

31


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Contact Information

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Innovative Research Group, Inc.| www.innovativeresearch.ca

Managing Director

Direct: 416-642-6429

Email:

glyle@innovativeresearch.

ca

Greg Lyle

progressive conservative poll, october 2010convention presentation october 2010

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