Session five (a): Pandemics and Biology

The misuse of biology

Prof Les Baillie

School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical

Sciences, Cardiff UniversityGlobal Trends and Implications for British Security

My Views

•Targeting humans

– Act of Terrorism

• State sponsored

• Radical group

• Doomsday

Possible misuses

– Accidental

• Break down in biosecurity

• Unforeseen consequences -Creating new life forms !

•Targeting animals- FMD

•Targeting crops – Rice, pollinators

Small scale anthrax attack

Estimated clean up cost US$1 billion.

• It is predicted that an attack against

a city of 11.5 million inhabitants with 2.2 pounds of anthrax would results in 1.5 million infections.

• If drugs were only administered once

the first case had been diagnosed

Consequences of a large scale anthrax attack

123,000 of those infected would die.

If antibiotics are given pre attack the number of deaths would be reduced to 50,000

Consequence of an attack against D.C.

100 000 dead, 125 000 infected

Economic cost = $ 26 billion dollars

(Kaufmann et al.,1997)

Stelle it !

Steel the bug from a lab

Natural source

Once you have your Once you have your

bug what happens next ?

Set up a secret microbiology laboratorySet up a secret microbiology laboratory

?

An idiots guide to making pathogens

There is no manual for how to live your life, and even if

there were, with your luck it would probably be in french

!

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How do you regulate biology ?