“What Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on Climate Change and

Prospects for a Green Economy?” March, 02 2009

UNESCO

Prof. José Goldemberg

University of São Paulo

São Paulo, Brazil

World Primary Energy Supply (shares of 11.4 billions tons of oil equivalent )

Problems with the present energy system

i. Exhaustion of fossil resources

ii. Security of supply

iii. Environmental impacts

5 Petroleum fluxes

Security of supply

6

Environmental ImpactsProblem Main cause

Local • Urban air pollution• Water availability• Soil degradation• Toxic and dangerous substances

• Fossil fuels for transportation• Solid fuels (biomass and coal) for heating and

cooking.

Regional • Acid rain • Emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides

particulate and ozone from fossil fuels

Global • Reduction of the ozone layer• Climate Change• Coastal and ocean degradation• Deforestation• Biodiversity loss

• Emissions of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels

• Extraction of timber, charcoal production and

expansion of the agricultural frontier.• Transportation of fossil fuels

7

Global anthropogenic greenhouse emissions in 2004

Source: IPCC, 2007

8

GHG emissions by sector in 2004

Source: IPCC, 2007

Technological Options

Energy Savings in the OCDE(1973 – 1998)

10Year

Modern renewables projections for 2010 and 2020

11

Note: Projections of modern renewables (including small hydro, excluding large) based on 11.5 percent growth per year, over the period 2001-2005.Sources: UNDP, UNDESA, and WEC, 2000 and 2004; REN21, 2006; And IEA, 2006

TECHNOLOGICAL LEAPFROGGING

Rather than mimicking the industrialized nations, going

through an economic development phase that is dirty and

wasteful creating a enormous legacy of environmental

pollution, developing countries can leapfrog over some of

the steps originally followed by industrialized countries and

incorporate currently available modern and efficient

technologies into their development process.

Crisis (KIKI)

(KI)

(KI)

Opportunity (KIKAI)

(KI)

(KAI)

Crisis and Opportunity

(KI)