prof. dr. jürgen scheffran & prof. dr. udo schickhoff .climate and environmental change m.sc....

Download Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran & Prof. Dr. Udo Schickhoff .CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE M.Sc. Module

Post on 28-Aug-2018

212 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • Prof. Dr. Jrgen Scheffran & Prof. Dr. Udo Schickhoffincluding slides provided by Prof. Dr. Jrgen Bhner

    CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    Prof. Dr. Jrgen Scheffran

    Abteilung Integrative Geographie, Universitt HamburgResearch Group Climate Change and SecurityGrindelberg 7, Room 2014 (Sprechstunde nach Vereinbarung)

    Tel: 040 42838 7722Email: juergen.scheffran@zmaw.deWeb: www.clisec-hamburg.de (Courses)User name: Course No: 63-181, Password: Climate2015

  • Part A: Climate and Environment Jrgen Scheffran

    I Introduction

    II The Climate System

    III Climate Change

    IV Environmental Change

    Part B: Human Impact on World Vegetation Udo Schickhoff

    Final Exam

    CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    Literature:

    Barry, R.G.; Chorley, R.J. (2003) Atmosphere, weather, and climate, Routledge.

    Schnwiese, Christian-Dietrich (2013) Klimatologie, 4.th edition, UTB.

    IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of WG Ito the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WGIAR5 4th Assessment Report.

    Gebhardt, H., Glaser, R., Radtke, U., Reuber, P. (eds.) (2012) Geographie - PhysischeGeographie und Humangeographie, Berlin: Springer.

    IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of WGI to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge University Press, UK und NY, USA.

    Oke, T.R. (1987): Boundary Layer Climates. Wiley & Sons, New York.

    McKnight, T.L. & D. Hess (2008): Physical Geography. Pearson. London

    Hess, D. & T.L. McKnight (2009): Physische Geographie. Pearson. London.

  • Aims of the lecture

    Knowledge of the fundamentals of climate system dynamics and factorsaffecting climate change in present, past and future;

    Insights in climate and human-induced environmental changes andpressures on environmental resources, ecosystem functions and serviceswith a particular focus on human impact on world vegetation

    CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

  • Content

    CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    Introduction into basic physical processes causing fluctuationsin the Earth's climate

    Evolution of the Earths climate system and the climate historyClimate-determined process domains and environments Impact of climate change on environmental resources (soil, water,

    vegetation) Interdependencies of climate and human induced degradation

    processes and deterioration of ecosystem functions and serviceswith a particular focus on human impact on world vegetation

    Scenario-based projections of future climate and environmentalchange; climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    anom

    alie

    s [

    C]

    observation (global mean)

    Global Temperatures 18602008 (SCHNWIESE 2009)

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    anom

    alie

    s [

    C]

    observation (global mean) statistical simulation (neuronal net)

    Global Temperatures 18602008 (SCHNWIESE 2009)

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    anom

    alie

    s [

    C]

    Kr SM Ag SA EC Pi Ka

    observation (global mean) statistical simulation (neuronal net)

    explosive volcanic eruption:Kr = Krakatau (1883)SM = Santa Maria (1902)Ag = Agung (1963)SA = St. Augustine (1976)EC = El Chichon (1982)Pi = Pinatubo (1991)Ka = Kasatochi (2008)

    Global Temperatures 18602008 (SCHNWIESE 2009)

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    anom

    alie

    s [

    C]

    Kr SM Ag SA EC Pi Ka

    observation (global mean) statistical simulation (neuronal net)sulfat signal

    explosive volcanic eruption:Kr = Krakatau (1883)SM = Santa Maria (1902)Ag = Agung (1963)SA = St. Augustine (1976)EC = El Chichon (1982)Pi = Pinatubo (1991)Ka = Kasatochi (2008)

    Global Temperatures 18602008 (SCHNWIESE 2009)

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    anom

    alie

    s [

    C]

    Kr SM Ag SA EC Pi Ka

    observation (global mean) statistical simulation (neuronal net)sulfat signal

    explosive volcanic eruption:Kr = Krakatau (1883)SM = Santa Maria (1902)Ag = Agung (1963)SA = St. Augustine (1976)EC = El Chichon (1982)Pi = Pinatubo (1991)Ka = Kasatochi (2008)

    El Nio

    Global Temperatures 18602008 (SCHNWIESE 2009)

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    anom

    alie

    s [

    C]

    Kr SM Ag SA EC Pi Ka

    observation (global mean) statistical simulation (neuronal net)sulfat signalgreenhouse gas signal

    explosive volcanic eruption:Kr = Krakatau (1883)SM = Santa Maria (1902)Ag = Agung (1963)SA = St. Augustine (1976)EC = El Chichon (1982)Pi = Pinatubo (1991)Ka = Kasatochi (2008)

    El Nio

    Global Temperatures 18602008 (SCHNWIESE 2009)

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

    Tem

    pera

    ture

    anom

    alie

    s [

    C]

    Kr SM Ag SA EC Pi Ka

    observation (global mean) statistical simulation (neuronal net)sulfat signalgreenhouse gas signalgreenhouse gas & particle signal

    explosive volcanic eruption:Kr = Krakatau (1883)SM = Santa Maria (1902)Ag = Agung (1963)SA = St. Augustine (1976)EC = El Chichon (1982)Pi = Pinatubo (1991)Ka = Kasatochi (2008)

    El Nio

    Global Temperatures 18602008 (SCHNWIESE 2009)

  • CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    Left (a): Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (C) from obser-vations (black) and AOGCM simulations forced with anthropogenic and natural forcings (58simulations produced by 14 models).

    Right (b): Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (C) from obser-vations (black) and AOGCM simulations forced with natural forcings only (19 simulationsproduced by 5 models).

    According to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (2007), the likelihood of solelynatural forcings for the warming in the last 50 years is below 5 % (IPCC 2007).

  • Left (a): Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (C) from obser-vations (black) and AOGCM simulations forced with anthropogenic and natural forcings (58simulations produced by 14 models).

    Right (b): Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (C) from obser-vations (black) and AOGCM simulations forced with natural forcings only (19 simulationsproduced by 5 models).

    According to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (2007), the likelihood of solelynatural forcings for the warming in the last 50 years is below 5 % (IPCC 2007).

    CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

    Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming (IPCC 2007)

  • Part A: Climate and Environment Jrgen Scheffran

    I Introduction

    II The Climate System

    III Climate Change

    IV Environmental Change

    Part B: Human Impact on World Vegetation Udo Schickhoff

    CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEM.Sc. Module Global Transformation and Environmental Change

  • II THE CLIMATE SYSTEM Basics

Recommended

View more >