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TRANSCRIPT
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
Average Date of First Fall Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
Average Date of Last Spring
Frost
Source: NASS Crop Progress Reports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1999-2015
Average Date of Last Spring
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
Source: NASS Crop Progress Reports
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
Average Date of First Fall Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2016
Average Date of First Fall Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
Average Date of Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
Data from 1977 through 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
Average Date of First Fall Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Co
mp
lete
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
Average Date of First Fall Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
Average
Date of First
Fall Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
SE SC SW EC C WC NE NC NW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
Frost 1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
9-Apr
29-Apr
19-May
8-Jun
28-Jun
18-Jul
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 6 years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
Increase 1 day every 6 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
Planting Emergence
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
3-Apr
17-Apr
1-May
15-May
29-May
12-Jun
26-Jun
10-Jul
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 2.5 years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
Increase 1 day every 5 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
Frost 1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
Frost 1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
3-Apr
17-Apr
1-May
15-May
29-May
12-Jun
26-Jun
10-Jul
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 9 years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
Increase 1 day every 8 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Cu
mu
lati
ve D
istr
ibu
tio
n
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Cu
mu
lati
ve D
istr
ibu
tio
n
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
3-Apr
17-Apr
1-May
15-May
29-May
12-Jun
26-Jun
10-Jul
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 3.5 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
Decrease 1 day every 10 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First
Fall Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
Frost 1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of Last
Spring Frost
20-Mar
3-Apr
17-Apr
1-May
15-May
29-May
12-Jun
26-Jun
10-Jul1
977
1979
1981
1983
19
85
1987
1989
1991
1993
19
95
1997
1999
2001
2003
20
05
2007
2009
2011
2013
20
15
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 2.5 years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
Increase 1 day every 6 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
First Fall
Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
3-Apr
17-Apr
1-May
15-May
29-May
12-Jun
26-Jun
10-Jul
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 4 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
Increase 1 day every 8 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First
Fall Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
3-Apr
17-Apr
1-May
15-May
29-May
12-Jun
26-Jun
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 2 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
Decrease 1 day every 5 years.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
3-Apr
17-Apr
1-May
15-May
29-May
12-Jun
26-Jun
10-Jul
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 2 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
No change over time.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
Frost 1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
20-Mar
27-Mar
3-Apr
10-Apr
17-Apr
24-Apr
1-May
8-May
15-May
22-May
29-May
Days
Median Outliers Trendline
1 day earlier every 6 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Du
rati
on
in
Days
Days between Outliers Trendline
No Trend over time.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1998-2015
Average Date of
Last Spring Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of
First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015
Average Date of First Fall
Frost
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Perc
en
t C
om
ple
te
1977-1985 1986-1995 1996-2005 2006-2015