process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering skip ellis,...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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PAGE 1
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PAGE 2
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 4: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
PAGE 3
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 5: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Positioning Process Mining
4
process
mining
Data Mining (DM)
(clustering, classification, rule discovery, etc.)
Business Process Management (BPM)(process analysis/modeling, enactment,
verification, etc.)
pe
rform
an
ce-o
rien
ted
qu
es
tion
s,
pro
ble
ms
an
d s
olu
tion
s
co
mp
lian
ce
-orie
nte
d q
ue
stio
ns
,
pro
ble
ms
an
d s
olu
tion
s
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History and Origins of BPM
PAGE 5
database
system
user
interface
database
system
user
interface
database
systema
pp
lica
tio
n
BP
M s
yste
m1960 1975 1985 2000
ap
plic
atio
n
ap
plic
atio
n
ap
plic
atio
n
BPM
WFM
office
automation
data
modeling
operations
management
scientific
management
business
intelligence
software
engineering
formal
methods
business
process
reengineering
Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979
Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977
Anatol Holt, Information Systems Theory
Project, 1968
Carl Adam Petri, Petri nets, 1962
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History and Origins of Data Mining
PAGE 6
Classical statistics (since 500 BC): descriptive statistics (e.g., sample mean) statistical inference (e.g., confidence interval, regression, hypothesis testing).
Artificial intelligence (since 1950): making intelligent machines by applying human-thought-like processing to statistical problems.
Machine learning (since 1950): construction and study of systems that can learn from data.
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Data Mining: Supervised Learning
• Labeled data, i.e., there is a response variable that labels each instance.
• Goal: explain response variable (dependent variable)
in terms of predictor variables (independent variables).
• Classification techniques (e.g., decision tree
learning) assume a categorical response variable
and the goal is to classify instances based on the predictor variables.
• Regression techniques assume a numerical
response variable. The goal is to find a function that
fits the data with the least error.
PAGE 7
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Example: Decision tree learning
PAGE 8
logic
failed
(79/10)
- ≥ 8
passed
(31/7)
failed
(101/8)
linear
algebra
program
ming
operat.
research
cum laude
(20/2)
<8
<6
<6
passed
(82/7)
≥ 6
≥ 6
passed
(87/11)
≥ 7
<7
linear
algebra ≥ 6
<6
failed
(20/4)
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Unsupervised Learning
• Unsupervised learning assumes unlabeled data, i.e., the variables are not split into response and
predictor variables.
• Examples: clustering (e.g., k-means clustering and
agglomerative hierarchical clustering) and pattern
discovery (association rules)
PAGE 9
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Example: Association rules
PAGE 10
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Example: Episode Mining
PAGE 11
a
b
c
d
E1
b
c
E2
a
b
c
d
E3
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
a c b de c b b cf a e eb c d c b
E1
E2 (16x)
E1 E3
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PAGE 12
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 14: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Language identification in the limit
(Mark Gold 1967)
• Mother uses sentences from some language {aab, ab, ab, abc, …}.
• "Perfect child" listens to mother and
hypothesizes what the full language is like (given all sentences so far).
• Eventually the perfect child’s
hypothesis is correct and never
changes again (without knowing), i.e., only finitely many wrong
hypotheses are generated.
• A language is learnable in the limit if
such a perfect child exists.
PAGE 13 Language identification in the limit by E Mark Gold, Information and Control, 10(5):447–474, 1967.
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Language identification in the limit
(E. Mark Gold 1967)
• Gold showed that most languages cannot be
learned in the limit (including the most simple
ones like regular languages (ab*(c|d)).
• He noted that it matters whether the child gets positive and negative examples (corrections),
whether the mother is evil, etc.
• Frequencies matter!
• Representational bias matters!
PAGE 14
sentence ≅ trace in event log
language ≅ process model
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Myhill-Nerode Theorem (1958) and the
Biermann/Feldman Algorithm (1972)
• There is a unique minimal deterministic finite automaton recognizing a regular language L ( shown
by John Myhill and Anil Nerode in 1958).
• The equivalence classes defined by ≅ determine the
states of the automaton: x ≅ y if there is no z such
that xz∉L and yz∈L.
• Cannot be applied to example traces: overfitting and
no generalization.
• Alan W. Biermann and Jerome A. Feldman propose
in 1972 techniques to learn finite state machines
from examples (e.g., considering k-tails).
PAGE 15
Nerode. Linear automaton transformations. Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 9 1958 541-544. Biermann and Feldman. On the synthesis of finite-state machines from samples of their behaviour.
IEEE Transactions on Computers, 21:592–597, 1972.
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Where/when did process mining start?
• Myhill/Nerode(1958)?
• Gold (1967)?
• Baum/Welch (1970)?
• Biermann/Feldman (1972)?
• Rakesh Agrawal (1994)? − Apriori algorithm for frequent patterns, later extended to sequences, episodes, …
• Jonathan Cook and Alexander Wolf (1998)? − "Discovering Models of Software Processes from Event-Based Data"
− using techniques similar to Biermann/Feldman (k-tails) and Baum/Welch (Markov models)
• Rakesh Agrawal, Dimitrios Gunopulos, Frank Leymann? − "Mining Process Models from Workflow Logs" (1998)
− Flowmark process models without discovering type of splits and joins, no loops, etc.
• Anindya Datta (1998)? − Automating the Discovery of AS-IS Business Process Models
− Biermann/Feldman style work, embedded in BPM PAGE 17
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Initial team
PAGE 19
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PAGE 20
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 22: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Workflow
Mining
PAGE 21
diagnosis/
requirements
configuration/
implementation
enactment/
monitoring
adjustment
(re)designmodelsdata
insight
discussion
verification
performance
analysisanimation
specificationdocumentation
configuration
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Models, data, and systems coexist
PAGE 22
(re)
design
implement/configure
run & adjust
model-b
ased
analysis
data-based
analysis
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Team in November 2007
PAGE 24
Some people are missing, e.g., Peter van den Brand.
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Current process mining spectrum (including alignments, operational support, and multiple perspectives)
PAGE 25
information system(s)
current
data
“world”people
machines
organizationsbusiness
processes documents
historic
data
resources/
organization
data/rules
control-flow
de jure models
resources/
organization
data/rules
control-flow
de facto models
provenance
exp
lore
pre
dic
t
reco
mm
en
d
de
tect
ch
eck
co
mp
are
pro
mo
te
dis
co
ve
r
en
ha
nce
dia
gn
ose
cartographynavigation auditing
event logs
Models
“pre
mortem”
“post
mortem”
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PAGE 26
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 28: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Pre-ProM (figure from March 2002!)
PAGE 27
Staffware
InConcert
MQ Series
workflow management systemen
FLOWer
Vectus
Siebel
case handling / CRM systemen
SAP R/3
BaaN
Peoplesoft
ERP systems
gemeenschappelijk XML formaat voor
het opslaan van workflow logs
EMiTLittle
Thumb
mining tools
InWoLvEProcess
Miner
Exper-
DiTo
alpha algorithm
including time
analysis
(BvD)
predecessor
of MXML
format
predecessor of ProM's
heuristic miner (TW) mining with
duplicate tasks
(Joachim Herbst)
mining block
structured models
(Guido Schimm)
evaluation tool
(Laura Maruster)
The first tool to support
the alpha algorithm for
process mining was the
MiMo (Mining Module)
tool based on ExSpect.
Later it was
implemented in EMiT
and ProM.
Tobias Blickle (ARIS PPM)
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PAGE 28
EMiT
MiMo
Little Thumb
Process Miner
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PAGE 37
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 39: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
How good is my model: Four forces
PAGE 38
fitness
simplicity
generalization
precision
Process
Mining
ability to explain
observed behavior
avoiding
underfitting
Occam’s Razor
avoiding
overfitting
lift
gravity
thrust drag
Leaving out one of these dimensions during discovery will lead to degenerate cases!
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PAGE 40
formal (not just a
picture)
fast (should not
take years) sound (result should
at least be free of deadlocks,
etc.)
ability to balance all conformance
dimensions (fitness, precision,
generalization, and simplicity) incl.
noise
provide guarantees
(not just a best effort)
1
2
3 4
5
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PAGE 41
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 43: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
PAGE 42
• conformance checking to diagnose deviations
• squeezing reality into the model to do model-based
analysis
#1 Alignments are essential!
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PAGE 43
#2 Models are like the glasses required to
see and understand event data!
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PAGE 45
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
![Page 47: process-mining-camp2013-history-of-process-mining · business process reengineering Skip Ellis, Office Talk, 1979 Michael Zisman, SCOOP, 1977 Anatol Holt, ... • There is a unique](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040600/5e8de5785f6b4411b31486bf/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
PAGE 46
Finding
sheep with
five legs
we are getting close…
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Distributing
process
mining
problems to
cope with
big data
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On-the-fly
process mining
Operational
support
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Concept drift
PAGE 49
Concept drift
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Cross-organizational mining
PAGE 50
cross-organizational /
comparative process mining
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context aware
process mining
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Supporting the process
of process mining
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PAGE 53
Conclusion
How about data mining and
business process management?
When did process mining
start?
What are the main PM developments
in this century?
How did PM tooling develop
over time? Three key observations
Why is process discovery so
difficult?
What are the main research
challenges?
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